UFC Vegas 67 Analysis & Preview

UFC Vegas 67: Strickland vs Imavov – 1.14.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 67: Strickland vs Imavov. We begin a new year of action tonight for the world combat sports leader here in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 0-0-0 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 0-0-0 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-13-2022 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Charles Johnson -350 vs Jimmy Flick +275

Anthony: The card today opens with a bout at flyweight between Charles Johnson and the returning Jimmy Flick. After a sensational UFC debut in December of 2020, Flick retired from MMA to focus more on spending time with his family. Ultimately that decision was short lived and for at least the previous six months Flick has been training hard and planning a return to action. He is a BJJ black belt with fourteen professional wins coming by way of submission. While he was hoping to shake off the rust against striker Jeff Molina, he now faces a much more well-rounded replacement here on short notice. Johnson is the former LFA champion and thus far 1-1 since joining the UFC. That loss came against an elite talent in Muhammad Mokaev but Johnson remained calm and survived a full three rounds defending submission attempts and working his way back to the feet. It seems unlikely that Flick chokes him out but I still like the underdog’s chances of winning minutes here on the mat. Johnson will be looking to strike for the majority of this bout and it won’t be very competitive if he does manage to keep his distance. However, Flick will be much more live than these odds suggest if able to initiate prolonged grappling exchanges. I am going to take a risk and back him here, trusting his BJJ will be the deciding factor here tonight. Jimmy Flick by Round Two Submission
Nick: Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion. He’s a technically skilled boxer with effective defensive wrestling ability. He’s well-rounded, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of his overall talent as he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a narrow decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He looked good in that fight, but Zhumagulov spent a lot of time controlling him against the cage and most striking exchanges were closely contested. Jimmy Flick is coming out of his temporary retirement, having not fought since December of 2020. He has extremely advanced BJJ ability, and like Johnson he is also a former LFA flyweight champion. His striking isn’t terrible, but he has a questionable chin and durability, as four of his five professional losses have come via KO. The line is certainly too wide here, but Johnson has solid submission defense as he’s never been finished professionally. Flick will be dangerous early, but I expect he’ll be in trouble once he can’t find that early finish. Charles Johnson by Round Two KO

Daniel Argueta -550 vs Nick Aguirre +400

Anthony: Next is a featherweight bout between Dan Argueta and Nick Aguirre. We were originally promised a fight between Argueta and Isaac Dulgarian this weekend, but news broke of this short notice change. Aguirre is stepping in despite his minimal experience, only debuting as a professional less than two years ago. He is big for this weight class and significantly larger than Argueta, but I am not entirely convinced that will be a factor here. While a six-inch advantage in reach is a benefit without a doubt, Aguirre will likely have few opportunities to display his slick striking. Argueta is a superior wrestler who will quickly look to bring this bout to the mat. This is an excellent opportunity for Argueta to get his first UFC win after going 0-2 in the octagon fighting on The Ultimate Fighter and UFC Vegas 56. I won’t be investing much at -550 but he seems like the more technical and much better prepared athlete. Daniel Argueta by Round Two Submission
Nick: Daniel Argueta is primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base. Four of his eight professional wins have come via submission. He’s a decent striker, but he has very short arms. He has decent power, but he’s far from technical on the feet and he struggles to close distance against longer/lankier opponents. Luckily for him, his opponent in this match-up is similar in stature and far less experienced in terms of level of competition. Nick Aguirre will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as Isaac Dulgarian was forced to withdraw with an injury. He is 5-0 professionally, but the combined record of his opponents is just 8-7. He seems fairly well-rounded when you watch him on film, but this match-up represents a dramatic step up in level of competition. The line is inflated here, but Argueta is the rightful favorite. He’s been tested more extensively against top level competition. Daniel Argueta by Round Two KO

Allan Nascimento -350 vs Carlos Hernandez +275

Anthony: This is a bout at flyweight with Carlos Hernandez taking on Allan Nascimento. It is an interesting stylistic clash given the rather unique gameplan Nascimento often employs. He is a very confident striker who uses his length to great advantage while standing. As with most products of Chute Boxe Diego Lima, we will see Nascimento looking to utilize a diverse muay thai attack to chip away at his opponent on the feet. However, Hernandez is the more fluid and volume-oriented striker making this bout one Puro Osso would prefer to see hit the canvas. He is a high-level grappler that can work very well in top and bottom position on the mat. Hernandez has been serviceable when it comes to defending submissions and fighting to his feet, but I am not convinced he outmuscles Nascimento in this spot. I think we see Nascimento get to his hips in the first half of this fight. With his top pressure, I am not sure he will struggle to maintain position as some of Hernandez’ opponents have in the past. I am pretty confidently picking him to win in this spot but the odds do seem a tad wide. He is coming off two impressive showings, so I understand why money has been pouring in on the Brazilian. Allan Nascimento by Decision
Nick: Allan Nascimento has outstanding BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles and he isn’t afraid to pull guard. He’s extremely aggressive on the mat offensively, as fourteen of his nineteen professional wins have come via submission. He’s coming off a solid win via decision over a highly regarded prospect in Jake Hadley. He dominated almost the entirety of that fight, out grappling another advanced BJJ player in Hadley and putting the division on notice. Carlos Hernandez is coming off a hard fought decision loss in his UFC debut, to a solid opponent in Victor Altamirano. He had plenty of moments in that fight and it was a narrow decision, but he absorbed a lot of strikes and was taken down multiple times by a less dangerous grappler than Nascimento. Hernandez is likely to have a technical advantage on the feet here. He has excellent footwork, a high guard, and he throws very tight combinations in which he works well behind heavy kicks. That being said, I don’t expect the fight to stay standing for long. Nascimento is a massive flyweight. His wrestling isn’t great, but I expect he should be able to outmuscle Hernandez here and ultimately find a submission. Allan Nascimento by Round Three Submission

Mateusz Rebecki -800 vs Matt Fiore +500

Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Mateusz Rebecki and Matt Fiore. Similar to the bout between Argueta and Aguirre, this feels like a mismatch on short notice. Rebecki was scheduled to make his promotional debut against Omar Morales but that bout fizzled due to injury. Now he draws an opponent just 6-0 as a professional. All of the wins for Fiore have come over mediocre competition on the regional scene in New England. He seems to have serviceable grappling and boxing, but it is hard to judge his true skill level given the guys he has been sharing the cage with. Rebecki is much further developed, fighting legitimate competition in Poland and earning a win on Dana White’s Contender Series this past summer. He has very good jiu jitsu and top control, likely meaning an early night at the office if able to ground his younger foe. I do like the striking out of Rebecki but it is clear his bread is buttered when fights hit the mat. He is a much stronger man and I expect to see him make quick work of Fiore. I like the Fight IQ displayed by Rebecki in the previous few appearances I have watched. I will be betting him to get the job done inside the distance rather than investing in him at -800 odds. Mateusz Rebecki by Round One Submission
Nick: This fight is a matchup between two UFC debutants, but Rebecki has been tested against much better competition. Rebecki is 16-1 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He is coming off an impressive Contender Series win via first round submission over Rodrigo Lídio. He’s a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. Nick Fiore is 6-0 professionally, but he only has two wins against opponents with winning records. His most recent win came against a 5-20 Stephen Stengel, so even on short notice it is somewhat surprising to see him getting a shot in the UFC here. Rebecki was originally scheduled to fight a much tougher opponent in Omar Morales, so it should come as no surprise that he’s a massive favorite in this spot off a full fight camp. No matter where this one goes I expect him to dominate. Mateusz Rebecki by Round One KO

Abdul Razak Alhassan -110 vs Claudio Ribeiro -110

Anthony: This should be an exciting middleweight scrap as Claudio Ribeiro takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan. While it is clear Alhassan has thunderous power, he often can be tentative when exchanging which results in underwhelming performances. I do not think that will be a problem here today facing a high action opponent like Ribeiro. The debuting fighter has won six consecutive fights by knockout. The stoppage over Ivan Valenzuela on Dana White’s Contender Series may have come a bit early, but I do not blame the referee for stepping in after a punch by Ribeiro sent his man flying down to the mat. It is hard to conclude that Ribeiro hits harder than Alhassan but he does appear to be the more dangerous striker in close. Alhassan would prefer to keep this fight at a range where he can rely on his technical skill while keeping the pace moderate. However, that could be a tough game plan to follow given his disadvantage in height and in reach. I much preferred Alhassan fighting at 170 pounds and while he is a real unit at middleweight, he appears to be slower and less explosive. Alhassan entered this bout on a 1-4 skid and he was lucky to win a scorecard his last time out. At near pick em odds I will be fading Alhassan, but don’t be surprised seeing either man knocked out today. Claudio Ribeiro by Round Two KO
Nick: Abdul Razak Alhassan is a physical specimen with massive power in his punches, All eleven of his professional wins have come via KO. He has a solid Judo base and decent grappling ability, but his questionable cardio/conditioning has prevented him from leaning on that part of his game. He is coming off a hard fought loss to Joaquin Buckley via Split Decision. In spite of the loss, it was encouraging to see him still finding success towards the end of the third round. I’m encouraged by Alhassan’s recent move to Elevation Fight Team, an excellent fight camp out of Denver. Training at a high elevation in thinner air should help improve his cardio moving forward. Claudio Ribeiro will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Iván Valenzuela which came just 25 seconds into that fight. He showed his exceptional power in that spot, but his defense seemed questionable at best. He’s very athletic and there is no denying his power, but in terms of technical ability it seems he’s still far from developed. This is a fight that could go either way as each fighter has true KO power. For me, I’ll side with the more proven commodity. Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round One KO

Javid Basharat -330 vs Mateus Mendonca +260

Anthony: Closing out the preliminary card is a bout at bantamweight between Javid Basharat and Mateus Mendonca. Both men enter undefeated as professionals and alumni of Dana White’s Contender Series. It is the UFC debut for Mendonca while we have already seen Basharat win twice in the UFC. He has shown a lot of promise, training at Xtreme Couture and displaying high level technique in each octagon appearance. His striking is crisp and focused, paired with very proficient offensive grappling. Betting on Basharat here, I’d much prefer him take a grappling heavy approach against a dangerous opponent in Mendonca. The 23-year-old has very good muay thai and a powerful right hand that he does not hesitate unloading. Crashing distance is part of his usual gameplan and today it will be necessary to get inside the range of Basharat’s longer reach. I could really see him excelling in the first half of this fight but one would think Basharat pays off his price tag if capable of surviving that early storm. He is far more technical and I see a ceiling for him inside of the division’s top twenty. I predict he will wear down Mendonca and eventually find a finish late. Javid Basharat by Round Three Submission
Nick: Javid Basharat is a highly regarded prospect, coming into this match-up with an undefeated 13-0 professional record. He is 2-0 so far in the UFC, most recently winning a convincing decision over a tough out in Tony Gravely. He’s extremely well-rounded, with an advanced understanding of footwork in striking exchanges. He fights long for his frame and throws at a fast and aggressive pace. He’s also an effective grappler, especially defensively as he’s shown to be excellent in scrambles. Mateus Mendonca will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Ashiek Ajim. He’s extremely aggressive, fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil. At an undefeated 10-0, he has three professional wins by knockout and three via submission. The line does feel a bit wide here and Mendonca is certainly not a pushover. Still, this feels like a bit too much too soon for him here. I like Basharat to score the win here after weathering an early storm. Javid Basharat by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Umar Nurmagomedov -1000 vs Raoni Barcelos +600

Anthony: The main card opens with a great bantamweight scrap between Umar Nurmagomedov and Raoni Barcelos. This is clearly the toughest test yet for young Umar in the UFC but he is about as complete a prospect as there is. The undefeated Russian of course trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov and the team of champions surrounding him. He is an orthodox striker with good kickboxing and extremely high accuracy on the feet. He also employs Dagestani grappling and immense top pressure made famous by his cousin. Harder to quantify is the strength of Umar, as he is an absolute monster for 135 pounds. It is shocking to see him make weight with ease each and every time out. Barcelos provides an interesting test for numerous reasons. The Brazilian is very dangerous on the feet, not only putting his hands together but blasting low leg kicks at his opponents. He also boasts a 93 percent takedown defense that likely drops a few points lower here today. However, with his length and balance it could prove to be difficult for Nurmagomedov in attempts to drag him onto the mat. Ultimately I think that Nurmagomedov accrues more than five minutes of control today. Things will seem dicey here as they trade blows on the feet, but Nurmagomedov should adhere to father’s plan and look like the -1000 favorite he is once Barcelos does get put onto his back. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Nick: Umar Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this match-up, as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a cousin of Khabib Numagomedov. He’s undefeated at 15-0, a creative striker with excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks. He’s an excellent wrestler as well, but he has found a lot of success on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. Barcelos was once considered by many to be a future top contender in this division. He’s extremely well rounded as a third-degree black belt in BJJ whose striking is as creative as it is dangerous. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks, which he mixes in well with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. As talented as he is, there is really no denying that he is not as dangerous or effective as he was just a few years ago. Nurmagomedov is going to be the better wrestler in this match-up, the more dangerous striker in terms of one shot power, as well as the faster and more explosive athlete. The line feels entirely ridiculous here given the skill level of Barcelos. Still, Nurmagomedov is the pick. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Ketlen Vieira -125 vs Raquel Pennington +105

Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Raquel Pennington and Ketlen Vieira. Both will put a winning streak on the line here in hopes of further climbing the division rankings. Vieira really impressed me winning her previous two fights, outworking big names in Miesha Tate and Holly Holm. I’m not certain she deserved the nod over Holm back in May but nonetheless she has clearly been improving. She puts out more consistent volume striking than Pennington and I favor her significantly if this fight is to hit the mat. Vieira has a solid base and does well controlling opponents when she can take them down. While Pennington has also been on a tear the level of competition is not quite as impressive. I see her struggling to win this bout unless she can steal minutes grinding Vieira up against the fence. This is not the most compelling fight on tonight’s card but I do think Vieira is a solid bet at near even odds. Ketlen Vieira by Decision
Nick: Vieira is likely going to be the more dangerous fighter if this fight hits the mat. She’s a blackbelt in both BJJ and Judo. She has strong takedown and submission ability but she seems entirely content to fight at striking range or up against the cage. She is coming off two consecutive wins over former champions in Holly Holm and Miesha Tate. These are undoubtedly the two biggest wins of her career, so she is carrying a lot of momentum into this match-up. Pennington is a talented veteran who has only lost to championship level fighters. She does a good job keeping consistent pressure on her opponents. She strikes best in close range where she likes to grind her opponents up against the cage, nullifying their offensive abilities. She’s going to be the better technical striker in this match-up, but her advantage in striking isn’t quite as significant as Vieira’s should be grappling. This is a low confidence play and a fight I could see going either way, but I’m siding with the favorite slightly. Ketlen Vieira by Decision

Punahele Soriano -150 vs Roman Kopylov +125

Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Punahele Soriano and Roman Kopylov. This was one of the tougher bouts for me to predict as both athletes have some deficiencies that make me hesitate at the betting window. They each enter 9-2 with varying success since joining the UFC. Soriano got back to his winning ways in his most recent appearance, stopping Dalcha Lungiambula. Relying on an early finish seems to be his calling card and Kopylov seems like one of his more durable foes. The former Fight Nights Global champion is much more consistent in his approach, utilizing more technical striking than Soriano and superior footwork. Soriano still packs the much bigger punch making this bout a coinflip on the feet. Soriano should have the edge grappling if he elects to do so. His wrestling can likely shut down Kopylov or at the very least diminish his more fluid striking. I am not confident siding with either man here but I do think Soriano lands the seminal blow that ends up deciding this one. Punahele Soriano by Round Two KO
Nick: Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks fairly polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he is an underrated grappler with a solid Judo base. He was an all-American wrestler in high school, but he certainly seems more inclined to stand and trade at the UFC level. Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a solid job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph the majority of his shots. Kopylov looked great his last time out, where he secured a KO win over Alessio Di Chirico. It’s safe to expect he continues to improve as he’s still only 31-years old. Soriano is going to be the better grappler in this match-up, but I expect he’ll be content to stand and trade. If Soriano doesn’t find a KO early there is a chance Kopylov can frustrate him and take over in the later rounds. All that being said, Soriano is my pick. Kopylov is a bit too willing to take damage in exchanges. Against an opponent with the power of Soriano that will likely spell trouble. Punahele Soriano by Round One KO

Dan Ige -125 vs Damon Jackson +105

Anthony: The co-main event is a featherweight fight with Damon Jackson taking on Dan Ige. I have never really been a fan of Dan Ige but he has faced a gauntlet of tough opponents on this recent losing skids. Names on this 1-4 streak include the likes of Movsar Evloev, Chan Sung Jung and Calvin Kattar. He is a bit undersized for 145 pounds but man does he pack a punch. Great power and an iron chin make Ige popular among fans, fighting hard and putting on exciting performances. However, there are a lot of holes in his defense yet to be addressed in his five-year UFC tenure. Jackson is conversely has great striking defense, absorbing just 2.83 significant strikes per minute. He has been on a tear winning four in a row and most recently stopping Pat Sabatini in September of 2022. Sayif Saud at the team at Fortis MMA have really helped level up his offensive striking too. He should do better than Ige picking his shots and landing strikes at range, but the more time spent on the feet the more likely Ige lands the bomb he needs. Jackson is also a very proficient grappler and I could see him electing to bring this bout to the mat. He can threaten Ige with submissions and use his size advantage to take control of awkward positions on the ground. At near pick ’em odds I think Jackson is the clear side in this one. Damon Jackson by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent featherweight match-up between two extremely well-rounded competitors. Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but it seems he’s most comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He is coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in his career, but all three came to elite level competition. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground as well, with eight of his last twelve wins coming via submission. He is on a four fight winning streak under the UFC banner, but this is the first time he’ll be taking on a ranked opponent. Jackson should have a considerable reach advantage here and he has the more dangerous BJJ. However, I see Ige as the better technical striker, the more powerful striker, and the better wrestler in this match-up. Jackson has made a career pulling off upsets, but I do see Ige as the rightful favorite in this one. He should have Jackson covered no matter where this one goes. Dan Ige by Round Three KO

Nassourdine Imavov -120 vs Sean Strickland +100

Anthony: The main event is a catchweight bout featuring Nassourdine Imavov and Sean Strickland. This is the second consecutive card headlined by Strickland who steps in as a short notice replacement for the injured Kelvin Gastelum. He is always ready for a scrap as evidenced by this appearance on just a week’s notice. Strickland’s loss to Jared Cannonier in December came in a close fight. He absorbed more than 140 significant strikes from the recent title challenger and still managed to keep things competitive for a full five rounds. He has a basic style focused on forward pressure boxing, headhunting, and defending strikes on his guard. The consistent pace and volume from Strickland makes it easy to anticipate the style of fight we are going to see. Imavov will look to use his superior lateral footwork to stay outside of Strickland’s range and attack from unconventional angles. I am a huge fan of his style, training with coach Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory. He stays very light on his feet and has a much more diverse striking attack than that of Strickland. Having a full camp to train for Gastelum means Imavov will be in great shape for five rounds, he will just need to make slight adjustments now facing an orthodox boxer rather than a southpaw. Still, he can land from both stances and generally will place strikes with better accuracy than Strickland. In what will likely be a standup affair, I expect Imavov to gain an early lead and land the more damaging shots in this fight. If Strickland is still around in rounds four and five this becomes a much more dicey prediction, but I will not be fading Imavov who I view as the far more technical striker. Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Nick: Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. Imavov, who was originally scheduled to take on Kelvin Gastelum here. Gastelum was forced to pull out earlier in the week, so now he’ll be facing a higher ranked and overall tougher opponent in Sean Strickland. Strickland has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. Strickland is coming off a controversial decision loss to Jared Cannonier. Strickland outlanded Cannonier in that spot, but the judges didn’t reward him as Cannonier was landing the bigger shots. I expect Strickland to work well behind his jab here, strike out of both stances as he keeps Imavov mostly on his back foot. This is a very tough fight to call and one I could see going either way, but I’ll side with the volume and technical precision of Strickland. I do have minor concerns about the short notice nature of this match-up, but he’s been fighting a much higher level of competition. Additionally, Strickland outweighed Imavov by a full ten pounds at weigh-ins. The last time we saw Strickland in a catchweight fight he beat Brendan Allen by knockout. Sean Strickland by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_