After 18 manic weeks of regular season football, the playoffs are finally here and what an intriguing set of Wildcard matchups we have this weekend. This is now the second year of the NFL expanding the playoffs to 14 teams with an added wildcard spot in each conference.
Last season, those two extra spots went to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers and both teams were soundly blown out. Hopefully, the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks can prove that an extra two teams do belong in the postseason.
Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens continue their rivalry but with a dampened twist, Tom Brady plays the role of the underdog against the Dallas Cowboys and two young quarterbacks go head to head. We’re going to do our past to break each game down and dish out the predictions, so let’s start with the first matchup of the weekend and go from there.
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) vs Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
If the regular season matchups were anything to go by, this could be another convincing win for the 49ers. There’s also no hotter team in the NFL right now. San Francisco are the winners of 10 straight games and ride into the playoffs just missing out on the NFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. They have the best weighted DVOA to end an NFL season since 2019, per Football Outsiders, and the defense has been the number one unit in the league by most metrics. Despite everything that has gone against the 49ers, they’re still firing on all cylinders.
What has gone against them has been injuries to Trey Lance, in Week 3, and Jimmy Garoppolo in 13. That brought Brock Purdy into the foray, and the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft hasn’t missed a beat. Since the former Iowa State quarterback stepped in, the 49ers are third in EPA per play on offense, behind only the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s a testament to not only Purdy’s ability but also Kyle Shanahan and his coaching skills. Would Purdy be as successful in any other offense in the NFL? It’s hard to say, but we’ve known Shanahan’s systems to elevate quarterbacks. Everything about this team just clicks.
Everything feels like playing with house money for the Seahawks at this point. They were meant to be a rebuilding team with a bridge quarterback that hadn’t begun an NFL season as a starter in almost a decade. But they’re dangerous under the right circumstances.
Geno Smith has shown that he has the ability to make plays with his arm while hooking up with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf downfield. The defense has its bright spots, but it’s hard to see them slowing down one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
The Seahawks have already been beaten by the 49ers twice this season, and there’s nothing to suggest that this isn’t heading the same way, especially with how the 49ers are playing right now. Expect them to make it 11 straight while covering the spread.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 31-17 Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) vs Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
The AFC is chock full of battles between young quarterbacks, and this is one of the best. The Jaguars have been the surprise package in the NFL, taking advantage of a beaten-up Titans team to make a late run for the AFC South crown.
No offense to the Titans, who have consistently been one of the NFL’s best teams for the last half-decade, but most people, including this writer, wanted to see the Jaguars in the postseason. The same goes for the Chargers. It’s about time this team, with Justin Herbert, got a crack at the postseason.
The two teams actually met earlier in the season, with the Jaguars running riot and winning 38-10. But that was back in Week 3 when Herbert was banged up. It’s hard to put too much stock in that game because both teams have evolved since then. That’s what makes this matchup so fun. Both defenses have improved passing defenses over the last two months of the season, but this game could come down to – and not to sound too prehistoric – how the Chargers can defend the run. Or it could at least significantly change the outcome.
The run defense is 29th in EPA per play, a trend that has been in play since Brandon Staley took over two years ago. The Jaguars success in the running game has been varied. Travis Etienne had an excellent season averaging 5.1 yards per carry, but also proved to be, at times, a boom-or-bust running back. If the Chargers can’t slow him down, Etienne can cause damage and open up the game for Lawrence.
That’s what’s most exciting about this game. Two young stud quarterbacks. One led by an offensive innovator in Doug Pederson, the other led by a defensive minded coach in Staley. Expect a more aggressive approach from Pederson and the Jaguars. His play calling has been exceptional this season, he consistently finds ways to scheme open his receivers and has put Lawrence in a great position to succeed. The same can’t always be said for Herbert, and sometimes that can really be the difference. This Chargers team has the edge in terms of talent, but I think the Jaguars edge this one.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills (13-3) vs Miami Dolphins (9-8)
Unfortunately, this game is going to look a heck of a lot different than it could have two months ago. With Tua Tagovailoa ruled out due to a concussion and Teddy Bridgewater still dealing with a lingering finger injury, it seems all but certain that Skylar Thompson will start his third game of the season for the Dolphins.
Thompson seems every bit of what he is: a seventh round rookie with just over 100 passing attempts on the season. He can extend plays with his legs, but even with the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Thompson is 50th out of 52 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in EPA per play this season. Yikes.
The growing optimism in the running game is a big help, but the Dolphins defense is going to have to carry the load…and that’s going to be tough. Only the Chiefs offense has a better EPA per play than the Bills this season and Josh Allen has historically ripped through the Dolphins defense. In 10 career games against the Dolphins, Allen has completed 64 percent of his passes for 2684 yards and 27 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions with a 8-2 record.
Expecting this game to be different isn’t wise. The Bills have rattled off seven wins in a row since the overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10 and the offense has comfortably been one of the best in that time span. The defense is, as always, one of the better units in the NFL. It’ll be tough for Thompson and the Dolphins to muster much of anything in this game. Maybe Hill or Waddle can break off a few big plays – that’s the only way this offense can really expect to survive – but it won’t be enough.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 28-6 Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings (13-4) vs New York Giants (9-7-1)
How do you truly quantify a team like the Minnesota Vikings? They won 13 games this season, their highest win total since 2017, with some pretty impressive wins in there – including an overtime win against the Buffalo Bills and the largest comeback in NFL history against the Indianapolis Colts. But despite that, it’s hard to really trust who the Vikings are.
Only two of their wins were by more than one score, and one of those was against Nathan Peterman in the final regular season game. And the losses, even though there are only three, have been an average margin of 22 points. Yeesh. Not quite a blowout, but it’s a worrying trend for the Vikings.
In actual fact, the offense has been better since the Vikings traded for T.J. Hockenson. Per RBSDM, the Vikings were 10th in EPA per dropback from Week 9 until Week 18, while they were 15th pre-Hockenson.
It’s not a dramatic shift, but Hockenson’s arrival has given Kirk Cousins another good pass-catcher and allowed him to be more aggressive in targeting the ball downfield. And the offense has the best wide receiver in the league right now in Justin Jefferson. But the problems lie on defense. The Vikings give up close to 400 yards per game, including the second most passing yards per game. Therein lies a worry.
On the other end of the matchup, the Giants weren’t supposed to be here. Talent-wise, they have the weakest roster in the playoffs and most people were pencilling them in for a top-5 pick in the draft, this writer included. How wrong we were. Brian Daboll has this team so well-coached and consistently executing their assignments. He’s also helping put Daniel Jones in positions to succeed, leading the former 6th overall pick to have the best season of his career.
The Vikings open as -3 points favourites, courtesy of their home-field advantage, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see them get knocked out of the playoffs early on after a successful season. But, the Vikings offense probably has enough in the tank in terms of quality to win this one. It’ll be close, just like their regular season matchup, but the Vikings edge it.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 28-24 New York Giants
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) vs Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
Just like the Bills vs Dolphins, this feels like a case of what could have been. If this was Lamar Jackson vs Joe Burrow, it might have been the best Wildcard game on tap, but Jackson is likely out once again meaning Tyler Huntley is likely to get the start against a very good Bengals defense. If that’s the case, then the Bengals road to the Super Bowl starts now.
Slowing down this offense, which feels as good as it’s ever been since they moved to a mostly shotgun-centric starting point, is not easy. The Bengals are riding high on an eight-game win streak that saw them navigate through a death row of opponents that include the Titans, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. Despite it, they feel a little overlooked compared to the Bills and the Chiefs of this world – but they definitely belong in the same tier.
Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the rest of the Bengals weapons will look to take advantage of a down-on-their-luck Ravens secondary that’s struggled to stay consistent in 2022 – injuries have been a big part of that, but that’s part and parcel of the NFL. An unfortunate inevitability. Without dragging on too much, it’s truly hard to see this being a close contest under the current circumstances.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Betting against a Tom Brady-led team is never wise. But if there was ever a time to bet against the Buccaneers, it would be now. They’re the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but got there thanks to a ludicrously poor NFC South and a clutch performance at the right time. As good as the Buccaneers can be, they’ll be in for a tough test on Monday night against the Dallas Cowboys.
Are they catching the Cowboys at the perfect time, though? Dallas were humbled last week against the Commanders in a game they were trying to win – against a quarterback making his first-ever career start, no less.
The offense mustered just six total points and just 10 first downs while struggling to move the ball against a stout defensive line. Now, they have to go against the Buccaneers defensive line – one of the best in the NFL at it’s best – off the back of that performance. It’s going to be tough.
Realistically, this feels like two offenses that can – under the right circumstances – explode for 30-plus points in any given game. The Cowboys averaged 27.5 points per game this season, and 32 points per game once Dak Prescott returned from injury. Prescott doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but he’s constantly commanding one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Sure, the Cowboys are probably a hard team to trust in the postseason because of, well, recent history in the postseason and a few funny bounces that have led to interceptions this year, but they’re a better team than the Buccaneers – a team that should also be hard to trust due to the fact they lost nine games this season!
Despite not wanting to bet against Brady, it’s hard not to. The Cowboys have homefield advantage and have the superior talent – one dud game against the Commanders doesn’t change that.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 20-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.