Royals Should Continue Selling Off Veteran Players Ahead of Spring Training
If you’re a veteran player on the Kansas City Royals in 2023, you’ll likely see your name on the trading block this season, perhaps even before spring training begins.
The franchise has been making trades fast and furious this month as management continues to turn over the roster to younger and, more importantly, less expensive players ahead of next season. For now, only Salvador Perez – signed through 2025 with a club option in ‘26 – appears to be off-limits.
Ryan O’Hearn was the first to be dealt, traded to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for cash considerations. The team also made a pair of moves earlier this week, sending Michael A. Taylor to the Minnesota Twins and Adalberto Mondesi to the Boston Red Sox.
With pitchers and catchers due to report in a few weeks, Kansas City’s front office still has time to continue parting ways with non-essential pieces, netting future assets in return. In doing so, they’ll receive a head start on the midseason trade deadline.
The Royals, finishing fifth in the AL Central at 65-97 last season, entered the first-ever MLB draft lottery – falling to eighth, three spots below their original position – and will almost certainly be a lottery team again in 2023. So it’s safe to assume they’ll remain sellers over the next several months.
OK, so we’ve determined that it’d be in the Royals’ best interest to continue making trades this off-season, allowing them to maximize each player’s value. With that settled, let’s explore what other veterans could be on the move before Opening Day.
Scott Barlow, a free agent after the 2024 season, has reportedly garnered interest across the majors this winter and will likely be traded before he reaches the open market. Though there’s no immediate urgency to do so, the longer he remains in Kansas City, the more his trade value will decline.
At 30, the 6-foot-3 righty doesn’t align with the Royals’ competitive window, which likely won’t open for at least another few seasons. But at $5.3 million in 2023, plus close to double that amount during his final arbitration year in ‘24, he’d be an impact acquisition for any contender.
Barlow doesn’t have the name recognition as one of the top closers in baseball, and rightly so, as he’s played on a rebuilding club for his entire career. He also hadn’t enjoyed a breakout performance until 2021.
Since then, however, the sixth-round selection has put together consecutive impressive showings while serving as the club’s primary closer. While his save count (40) ranks outside the top 10, he’s developed into a prototypical high-leverage reliever thanks to his swing-and-miss ability.
Source: Baseball Savant
As seen above, Barlow excelled in that department last season, with his whiff (32.5 percent) and chase rates (37.2 percent) placing in the 89th and 97th percentiles, respectively. His strikeout rate (26.6 percent) wasn’t as high as in previous seasons, but it still finished well above league average.
The veteran righty also successfully limited hard contact, as his average exit velocity (86.4 m.p.h.) and hard-hit rate against (29.8 percent) ranked in the 90th percentile or better.
Trading Barlow would create a massive void in the ninth inning. That might not be a terrible outcome, though, helping Kansas City add to its loss column, ensuring the organization receives improved draft lottery odds next winter.
Tanking aside, at least for the moment, the Royals feature four internal arms that possess previous closer’s experience: Dylan Coleman (12 career minor-league saves), Taylor Clarke (four career big-league saves), Amir Garrett and newcomer Aroldis Chapman.
None of these relievers would be ideal options for a playoff contender, but for an organization in the midst of a rebuild, it wouldn’t hurt to operate with this group. And if Garrett or Chapman perform well, either pending free agent could become a valuable trade chip.
Hunter Dozier is another player that may have already played his final game with the Royals. After hitting .236/.292/.387 with a 90 wRC+ over 129 games in 2022, it might be time for both parties to move on.
With a talented pool of young infielders on the rise, the team can’t offer Dozier everyday opportunities anymore – and probably shouldn’t have utilized him in a full-time role last season. But there weren’t many alternatives back then, though that is no longer the case.
Bobby Witt Jr. is poised to open next season as Kansas City’s everyday shortstop, but the young phenom is more than capable of shifting to the hot corner, creating a path for prospect Maikel García to earn regular reps at short.
García, the Royals’ No. 5 prospect, made a brief cameo with the big-league club last season, logging 23 plate appearances across nine contests in his MLB debut. And he drew plenty of attention, showcasing his 55-grade hit tool by producing a .318 AVG and .412 BABIP.
The 22-year-old’s offensive skill set doesn’t include a power swing. He’s been working on that area in winter ball, though, blasting four home runs with a .498 SLG over 58 games with La Guaira.
Nate Eaton and Michael Massey also feature prior experience at third base, with both likely serving as backup options. A tandem of Witt-García on the left side could also provide much-needed stability on the infield for a franchise without that since its 2015 World Series roster.
Finding a suitor for Dozier could be tricky, considering he’s been a negative-WAR player over his previous two campaigns. The 31-year-old enjoyed success versus left-handed pitching in 2022, slashing .252/.331/.409 with a 110 wRC+, potentially making him an appealing target as a part-time contributor.
It doesn’t help that Dozier is signed through 2024, earning $7.5 million in ‘23 and $9.25 million the following season, with a $10-million club option for ‘25. But perhaps a team would be willing to acquire him if Kansas City retains 50 percent of his remaining contract.
That way, the Royals would still save money against their Collective Balance Tax payroll, which currently stands at $102.8 million, while creating a full-time position for one of their top young stars – a win-win scenario.
There will also likely be additional moves to make leading up to this summer’s trade deadline, particularly involving Brad Keller (free agent after 2023) and Jordan Lyles (signed through 2024). If both were traded, their absences would allow two youngsters to showcase their skills at the big-league level.
The Royals’ minor-league system is rich with promising young arms at the upper levels, including Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy. But unless paths are created, none of these hurlers will likely receive regular reps in the majors until 2024.
That is why it’ll be crucial for management to continue tearing down this roster as next season approaches. But they can’t stop there, either, as further prospect stockpiling is required to develop future impact players.
The 2023 season will be mind-numbingly frustrating at times for Royals fans – there’s no debating that. There is a light at the end of the tunnel from enduring numerous losing seasons, though.
With many bright stars in the pipeline and a handful already in the show, the franchise is witnessing a new foundation starting to form in the majors, one they’ll aim to build around in future campaigns.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85