After a hotly contested Divisional Round, we’re only 12 quarters away from deciding the Super Bowl Champion. The four title game participants – the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles – have consistently been four of the NFL’s elite this year and are all worthy of a shot at glory.
All four have appeared in an NFC or AFC Championship game in the last six years, with the AFC giving us a rematch between the Bengals and Chiefs.
So far, our predictions have been good. We’re 8-2 after last week, with the only wrong pick coming in the Dallas Cowboys game. That’s because this writer is silly enough to believe in the Cowboys, even as they find new weird and wonderful ways to lose big football games. Moving forward, that’s not a mistake we’ll be making.
Let’s break down each Conference game and give our predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs (-1.5) Cincinnati Bengals
This’ll be the fourth meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals in the last two years, and as we’ve mentioned, it’s the second straight AFC title game between them. So far, the Bengals are a perfect 3-0 against the Chiefs, winning 27-24 back in Week 13. All three prior games have all been three-point games with the Chiefs leading heading into the fourth quarter in the two regular season games. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs were also the favourites in all three games.
But it’s time to take the Bengals seriously. Which feels like an absurd notion at this point since this team were Super Bowl runners-up a year ago and have only gone from strength to strength.
However, they’ve long been considered a tier below the Chiefs and Bills despite their on field exploits. They’ve proven to be one of the most complete teams in the NFL in 2022 once again.
The offense has found ways to be more efficient while retaining its big play threat in the form of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and the rest of that core while the defense has stepped up its game in spite of a rather average pass-rush.
The real question right now is the health of Patrick Mahomes. The likely MVP of the league suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half of Saturday’s game and, while he helped lead the Chiefs to a narrow victory, he was clearly limited in his movement.
The Chiefs offense works best when Mahomes is in full creator mode and using his mobility outside of the pocket. No one can extend plays like Mahomes, just part of the reason why he’s head and shoulders above every other quarterback in the NFL.
Mahomes demonstrated his ability to command an offense from within the pocket, setting offensive line protections, dialling up passing plays and throwing a touchdown pass off one leg to Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the second half. It helps that Mahomes has an All-World talent like Kelce, a strong interior offensive line, and one of the smartest coaches in the NFL on his side. Even a semi-healthy Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the track record of this Bengals defense against the Chiefs is hard to ignore. That’s partly why they’re slight favourites on the road this week.
On the flip side, the Chiefs defense has shown in previous seasons that they can step up to the occasion. But can they hang with this version of the Bengals offense?
Joe Burrow is operating at a better level than ever before. His elite anticipation and accuracy easily make up for what he lacks in arm strength, and having Chase and Higgins certainly helps. If the Bengals running game can be as efficient as it was against the Bills, the Chiefs defense is in for an even tougher time. The Chiefs are dead last in opponents rush EPA and success rate in the postseason so far.
Picking against Mahomes is never smart and it’s inadvisable. He always finds a way to perform, but the Bengals just feel like an all-around better unit, and their recent success against the Chiefs is too hard to ignore. Sorry, but the Bengals are going to back-to-back Super Bowls.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 24-31 Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs San Francisco 49ers
The Eagles and 49ers have been the cream of the crop in the NFC for most of the season, so it feels poetic that the two teams will be facing off to determine who goes to the Super Bowl. These are two of the most well-coached, and carefully assembled rosters in the NFL, with star talent and depth from top-to-bottom.
What Kyle Shanahan has managed to do with his third-string quarterback at the helm is nothing short of remarkable. That’s not a knock on Brock Purdy, who has shown that he has the chops to be a starting quarterback in the league despite his status as the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Being a play calling genius and having that wealth of talent on offense helps.
The 49ers have an explosive lineup in the form of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kyle Juszcyzk when in 21 personnel – and they can do so many things out of that formation to confuse and frustrate defenses.
The Eagles have a similar collection of talent at their disposal, but with the added threat of Hurts as one of the best dual-threats in the NFL. Both teams have excellent running games, but the Eagles lead the NFL in EPA per rush play in 2022. Attribute that excellence to a variety of reasons across the board, from Shane Steichen’s smart playcalling, to the elite offensive line play of Jeff Stoutland’s unit. But they’ll come up against that 49ers defense. The one that was second in EPA per rush in the regular season and has allowed the third-least rushing yards per game in the postseason. It’s truly the battle of the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.
The 49ers defense put Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys through hell in the Divisional Round, but the Eagles offense has a little more flexibility and isn’t as compact, even if Prescott is a better passer than Hurts.
They’ll surely find ways to slow down the Eagles offense, but after an equally slower than typical day on offense against the Cowboys defense, can the 49ers get things going against the Eagles defense?
It’ll be tough. The Eagles allowed just seven points against the Giants last time out and handled a pretty well-equipped run game anchored by Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones. The pass rush is a strong point for the Eagles as well.
Their defense can get after the quarterback with its myriad of pass rushers and blitzers. Their 75 sacks in the regular season and the playoffs are currently the third-most in NFL history and the most since the 1985 Chicago Bears.
These are probably the two most complete rosters in the NFL coming to blows, but, as good as Purdy has been during this winning stretch, this Eagles defense might just have too much in the tank. Maybe. Picking a winner, again, is incredibly tough. But we’re taking the Eagles.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 24-17 San Francisco 49ers
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Alexander Jonesi. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.