The playoff race in the NFC is coming down to the wire once again. With the expansion of the playoff format to 14 teams (7 from each conference) ahead of the 2021 season, that extra wildcard spot opens the door to even more late season chaos.
That means more teams who would normally miss out on a playoff push vying for the final spot. Even for the teams that have clinched a postseason berth, seeding is still very much in play.
There are currently six teams in the NFC that have clinched a playoff spot. Four of those teams were participants last season (the Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers, and Buccaneers) while the Minnesota Vikings and the New York Giants added some fresh competition to the NFC in 2022.
Three of those teams have already wrapped up their division (Bucs, 49ers, and Vikings) but incredibly, the Eagles have still yet to wrap up the NFC East. Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s break down each scenario team by team.
Philadelphia Eagles
Let’s start with the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re the current NFC East leaders and the team most likely to win the NFC’s sole first-round bye. The injury that forced Jalen Hurts out has meant that the Eagles have dropped their last two games and put a little bit of doubt into whether or not they can grab the top seed in the NFC. But Hurts could potentially be back for what can be viewed as a playoff game on Sunday against the New York Giants. Here’s what’s at stake:
NFC East title:
The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss. It’s really that simple. They’re in the drivers seat in the division, and even if they don’t get the job done against the Giants – let’s say, for example, if Hurts doesn’t play – then a Cowboys loss at Washington will suffice. A win is all they need, and you can bet that Nick Sirianni will settle for nothing less regardless of who is starting.
The NFC No. 1 seed (first-round bye, home-field advantage):
A first NFC East title since 2019 would be nice, but the Eagles are really aiming for the stars in the form of the top seed in the NFC, which would guarantee them the lone first-round bye in the NFC, and home-field advantage all the way to the NFC Championship game.
The Eagles are 6-2 at home this season, and having the crowd at the Lincoln Memorial Field behind them for the majority of the postseason would be a huge advantage.
Just as it is with the NFC East title, the Eagles only need a win to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’ve been the team to beat in the NFL this season, and a win would not only secure the first-round bye, but it would give them the best record in the league (potentially tied with the Chiefs if they win).
If that fails, the Eagles would need the Cowboys and the 49ers both to lose against the Commanders and Arizona Cardinals respectively.
The chances of that seem low, so winning is the goal for an Eagles team that has had the top seed in their sights for a number of weeks now. Had Jalen Hurts been healthy, this likely wouldn’t have been a conversation. But missing the last couple of weeks and the Eagles stumbling in his absence has left the door open for a couple of teams.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have been on a roll recently. Winners of nine games in a row while having to change starting quarterbacks midway through that streak is highly impressive. Kyle Shanahan’s team haven’t missed a beat with Brock Purdy under center and, as a result, are within a shout of the top seed in the NFC this weekend. They’ve already wrapped up the NFC West, but here’s what’s in play:
The NFC No. 1 seed (first-round bye, home-field advantage):
A win is obviously a good start for the 49ers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium. The Cardinals are heading in the complete opposite direction. The losers of six straight games and nothing to play for except draft position, they’ll likely prove no real threat to the 49ers. But that doesn’t mean San Francisco should take a win for granted. They’ll still need to earn it.
Winning isn’t enough, though. The 49ers need to have a little luck on their side. They also need the Philadelphia Eagles to lose against the New York Giants and, as we’ve discussed, that game could rest entirely on the health of Jalen Hurts.
Do the Eagles risk him for the Week 18 game, wrap up the top seed and then rest for a week? That seems the likely option. If not, there’s a good chance the 49ers could be the top seed in the NFC. A win for the 49ers and a loss for the Eagles puts them atop the pile. But the door is slightly ajar for one more team in the NFC.
Dallas Cowboys
Things aren’t out of reach for the Cowboys in the NFC. Since Dak Prescott has returned to action, they’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NFL and are 6-1 across their last seven games, with wins against the Giants, Vikings, and Eagles – all potential playoff opponents for the Cowboys. Their second NFC East title and first first-round bye since 2016 isn’t completely off the cards, but they need a few things to go their way:
NFC East title:
Let’s start with the division crown. First and foremost, the Cowboys need a win on the road against the Commanders. That kicks things off. After that, the Cowboys need some help. If the Cowboys win and the Eagles lose, they take the NFC East title for the second year in a row and cap off a pretty impressive feat. Dallas stayed hot on the tail of the Eagles all season long, and they could take advantage of another Eagles slip-up on the final day. That’s only half the battle, though.
The NFC No. 1 seed (first-round bye, home-field advantage):
If the Cowboys have aspirations of playing at AT&T Stadium throughout the playoffs (and why wouldn’t they?) then grabbing the top-seed in the NFC is the priority.
What they have to do doesn’t change. They need to beat a Commanders team with nothing to play for, a team that could very well be in line to start, or at least feature Sam Howell in his first-ever NFL game.
The former 5th round pick was one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft, but still fell to the fifth round where the Commanders scooped him up. Whether he’s ready for the job or not, he’ll likely struggle against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys are in good stead to hold up their end of the bargain.
Their path to the No. 1 seed is the most difficult. They need to win, hope the Eagles lose, of course, but the Cowboys also need the 49ers to lose against the floundering Arizona Cardinals. One of those losses isn’t out of the question, but both the Eagles and the 49ers losing? That’s hard to fathom. If all that happens, though, the Cowboys are the NFC’s top seeded team and have a week off to rest and prepare.
It isn’t just the top seed in the NFC at stake, there’s still one final Wildcard spot up for grabs, and there are three teams vying for it. Who are they, and what needs to happen for them to seal it?
Green Bay Packers
A late-season surge from the Packers has put them in a position that no one expected them to be in two months ago: on the precipice of the postseason.
After a 4-8 start, the Packers have ripped off four wins in a row while the offense has started to find its feet. Last week’s dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings – the NFC North winners – has left the Packers in a win-and-in scenario.
Every game for the last month has essentially been a playoff game for the Packers. A loss would have been enough to write them off, but they’ve just kept winning. Now, if they can beat the Detroit Lions on Sunday, they’ll make it to the postseason under Matt LaFleur once more.
Everything is coming together nicely for the Packers. They have home-field advantage against the Lions – a team that has struggled to play outside all season – and have the experience of playing under a lot of pressure for the last month. That counts for something.
A win won’t be easy, especially against a hot-and-cold Lions team that has already knocked off the Packers 15-9 earlier in the season and is also in the hunt for the postseason (more on them soon). To simplify it for Green Bay, it’s win and in. But nothing is ever easy in the NFL, especially when it’s against a divisional rival.
Detroit Lions
It won’t be simple for the Packers, largely because of their opponents this week. The Lions vs Packers is the Sunday Night Football game with plenty at stake. For the Packers, it’s as simple as winning and they’ll punch their ticket to the postseason. They have all of the advantages on their side. Territory, recent form, and only their own performance to worry about.
It’s a little more convoluted for the Lions. They need to go to the cold at Lambeau Field, a place where they haven’t won since 2018, in conditions where they’ve struggled this season.
The Lions are a dome team through and through, and the offense performs better at home. Going to Lambeau Field and winning in a playoff atmosphere isn’t something this young Lions team is used to – but they can benefit from being the underdog.
Truthfully, the pressure will really be on for the Lions though. If they want to make it to the postseason, they have to beat the Packers and hope for a Seattle Seahawks loss to the Los Angeles Rams earlier in the day. If the Seahawks lose against the Rams, it’s a similar win-and-in scenario for the Lions. It won’t matter for Detroit though, if the Seahawks win against the Rams. But they could, and likely would, still compete hard and play spoiler for their divisional foe.
Seattle Seahawks
That leaves us with the Seahawks. They have a real chance to play spoiler this weekend, as the Lions will be watching their game against the Los Angeles Rams with a keen eye.
The Seahawks don’t come into this game in the best of form. They won last time out against the New York Jets but they’ve only won two of their last seven games. The Geno Smith honeymoon phase has slowed down too – he’s 20th in EPA per play among all quarterbacks since Week 10.
Smith was never meant to be “the answer”, so it’s easy to feel like the Seahawks are playing with house money right now. A playoff run would be improbable at the start of the season, but missing out now – considering where they were five weeks ago – would end the season with a whimper. For Pete Carroll’s team to make it, they have to start by getting the job done against the Rams.
Los Angeles are in an interesting position with Baker Mayfield under center. The former first overall pick will want to end the season strong and prove that he can be a viable option for the Rams moving forward. The Rams don’t have draft considerations to worry about either due to the Lions owning their first round pick, so expect them to play their strongest team.
That means it’ll be all guns blazing for the Seahawks. There are no easy games in the NFL and facing a Sean McVay team is no different. If they can beat the Rams in the 4:25ET kickoff, it’ll be all eyes to Sunday Night Football where only a Packers loss will do. If the Seahawks win and the Packers lose, the Seahawks get the final wildcard spot.
Locked Into Their Positions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4th Seed, will play the 5th Seed in Round 1)
New York Giants (6th Seed, will play the 3rd Seed in Round 1)
There’s a ton of intrigue in the NFC with so much left to play for, while the AFC is a little murkier given the conversations and questions regarding the state of the Bills vs Bengals game. Either way, the final week of the NFL season is going to be special.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.