The NFL season is in full swing, as we’re nearly a third of the way through the season, we’re really starting to learn who the 32 teams in the NFL really are. Each team is making a statement of intent, with eyes either on a Super Bowl run or a fresh start on tomorrow.
We know the usual contenders. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the top of the barrel but the league also has its fair share of surprising starts as well. Opinions might be split, so let’s decide who’s contending and who’s pretending.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
An easy place to start. The last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, the Eagles have been on a tear through the first seven weeks of the season, beating down a myriad of opponents. Good teams, bad teams, great teams. So far, the Eagles have knocked off all comers.
The Eagles were aggressive in the offseason, adding A.J. Brown, James Bradberry, and Haason Reddick to an already talented and hungry roster while drafting Jordan Davis in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. They were positioning themselves as real players in the NFC, but much of their momentum would lay in the hands of Jalen Hurts. If Hurts could make a significant jump in his third season – his second as a full-time starter – then the Eagles could bet on a deep postseason run.
Well, so far so good. Hurts has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2022. He’s fifth in quarterback EPA per dropback, seventh in QBR, and seventh in Football Outsiders’ DYAR. His progression as a pocket passer has been evident as well. Hurts is completing a career-high 66.8 percent of his passes, up from 61.3 percent in 2021. All while remaining one of the best running threats in the NFL. But it isn’t just Hurts carrying the load.
What makes the Eagles so complete is the way Howie Roseman has continued to build the foundation of this team: in the trenches. The offensive and defensive lines are the most dominant units in the NFL, and so much of what the Eagles can do – on both sides of the ball – starts up front.
It’s hard to view the Eagles as anything other than legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now. They might not be at the same level as the Buffalo Bills or the Kansas City Chiefs, but they look like the best team in the NFC.
Verdict: Contender
New York Giants (6-1):
It’s been six years since the New York Giants had a winning record and if we’re being honest, no one expected the Giants to have a winning record in 2022. Certainly not the second-best record in the NFL. En route to their unbelievable start to the season, the Giants have beaten the Green Bay Packers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Tennessee Titans. Brian Daboll and his staff have done a brilliant job in their first season. But is it sustainable?
Maybe? The Giants have a top-10 offense in EPA per play. Daniel Jones has been quietly efficient, completing 67 percent of his passes, and is 11th in expected points added and completion percentage over expectation composite. The offense has been riding the hot hand of Saquon Barkley, though. The former second-overall pick has looked better than ever out of the backfield, rushing for 726 yards and four touchdowns.
However, the nature of the Giants’ wins leaves a lot to be desired. The wins are important, but the Giants have been beneficiaries of monumental collapses from the Ravens and the Packers in back-to-back weeks and barely snuck past the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers. Every game, win or loss, has been settled by one score, and, thankfully for the Giants, luck has been on their side. They could quite easily be sitting with a losing record right now. But they aren’t and that’s a credit to them.
The rest of the schedule will be kind to the Giants. So there’s every chance they could make the playoffs as a wildcard team. But it also depends on how they perform against the Eagles (twice) and the Cowboys. That’ll likely define their chances. For now, it’s a long shot. It’s been a good story, but the Giants miracle run can’t last forever.
Verdict: Pretender
Minnesota Vikings (5-1):
We’ve been here before, right? The Minnesota Vikings have been a team on the precipice of big things before and, usually, it doesn’t end well. The last time the Vikings started this well was in 2016. They started the season 5-0…and missed the playoffs, losing 8 of their final 11 games. Surely, it will be different this time.
For starters, the Vikings already have a two-game lead over the Green Bay Packers, and a tiebreaker to boot. That’s a good sign. This Vikings roster is also better than the one from six years ago. Kirk Cousins might be a limited quarterback – he’s currently 18th in EPA+CPOE and is turning the ball over at a higher rate than last season, but the Vikings offense as a whole is an above-average unit and Justin Jefferson is one of the three best receivers in the NFL right now. The offensive line, often a weak point of the team, is playing above expectations too – second-year tackle Christian Darrisaw is looking great through the first couple of months of the season.
In usual Vikings fashion, they struggle to close out games. Their modus operandi last season was being involved in too many one-score games – and usually, they were on the wrong side of those games. This season, they are still in one-score games but they are winning them. It’s hard to bank on that working throughout a whole season, but so far it has.
The Vikings probably benefit from a pretty weak NFC too. Outside of the Eagles, and likely the Cowboys once Dak Prescott gets rolling, who is a real threat in the conference? The Packers and Buccaneers look like shells of themselves. The 49ers are immensely talented but quarterback play could hold them back. We’ve spoken about the Giants, and that just leaves a few stragglers. In spite of that, it’s still hard to consider the Vikings real contenders. Especially with Cousins at quarterback.
Verdict: Pretenders
New York Jets (5-2)
The New York Jets are the proprietors of the longest playoff drought in the NFL. Twelve long years. The last time the Jets made the postseason, they were led by Mark Sanchez at quarterback and an excellent defense that finished sixth in EPA per play. This season, the defense and the running game are leading the way, and for the first time since 2015, the Jets have a winning record through the first four weeks of the season. In fact, the Jets and the Giants both have winning records, a sign that maybe the world is coming to an end.
Both are in similar ballparks in terms of expectation. No one expected the Jets to be 5-2 after seven weeks. Most people expected long-term improvement from a team that had won just 6 games in the last two seasons. The Jets had a great 2022 draft, picking up Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson – all of whom have made immediate impacts – and Jermaine Johnson in the first two rounds. That’s translated into early success, but second-year quarterback Zach Wilson is still struggling. That’s why it’s hard to buy into the Jets as a real playoff contender.
Wilson is completing just 56 percent of his passes for 572 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions in 2022. He’s also 27th in EPA per dropback, per RBSDM. He has shown glimpses of improvement, and is turning the ball over less, but Wilson has to be able to consistently make plays in the pocket. The hopes of the Jets don’t just hinge on Wilson. The defense needs to continue playing at a very high level to negate the lopsided offense.
They’re a young and very fun team. But calling them contenders is a year or two premature.
Verdict: Pretenders
Miami Dolphins (4-3)
A case of “what if?” so far for the Miami Dolphins. After a perfect 3-0 start, including wins against the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins looked to be rolling. Unfortunately, concussions in back-to-back weeks for Tua Tagovailoa derailed their progress and they lost their next three games against the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, and Minnesota Vikings. Not the worst collection of teams to lose to, but it did drop the Dolphins to third in the AFC East.
That’s tough. But this team is strong enough to bounce back and mount a playoff run. Tagovailoa was playing lights out prior to his injury. He ranks second in EPA per dropback and has completed a career-high 69.6 percent of his passes for 1035 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. With Tagovailoa, the offense looked like a top 5 unit – in spite of the ineffective run game. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the best wide receiver duo in the league right now, tearing apart defenders league-wide while having more yards after the catch combined than six teams.
An explosive offense wins games, and the Dolphins under Mike McDaniel are set up to do that. But they still need help from an underperforming defense that’s allowing 25.8 points per game – the sixth-most in the NFL – and is 28th in EPA per play.
Overall, it might seem a year too early for the Dolphins, but the offense works with Tagovailoa under center and the defense has enough talent to stop the rut and not make every game a shootout. Even in a tough AFC, they have the chance to be one of the better teams and challenge for a deep postseason run.
Verdict: Contenders
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
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