Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Defense Continued Trending in a Positive Direction This Season
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has come a long way since his big-league debut in 2019, especially on defense.
In the minors, the 23-year-old was widely known as an offensive phenom, dominating at every level. And while adjusting to the majors wasn’t easy, he enjoyed a breakout performance in 2021, blasting 48 home runs with a .311/.401/.601 slash line.
That remarkable offensive showing earned Guerrero Jr. his first All-Star nomination while finishing as runner-up to Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani for the AL MVP. His production wasn’t as impressive this past season, but he still hit 32 round-trippers and .274/.339/.480 in his fourth campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Guerrero has received plenty of recognition for his offensive talents since arriving in the majors, and rightly so. He is one of the most gifted hitters in the sport. Yet not enough attention has been paid to his defensive growth to date.
The 6-foot-2 righty played third base in the minors, showcasing his impressive arm strength along the way. His other attributes, however, still required development and that remained true upon debuting in the majors.
After registering -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -20 Outs Above Average (OAA) across 824.1 innings at third base in 2019, Guerrero needed to make several improvements to remain at the hot corner. But little progress was made during that ensuing off-season.
With the Blue Jays concerned over the young star’s conditioning, they ultimately decided to move him to first base ahead of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The positional change was beneficial to his offensive results, although his fielding remained well-below average.
In total, Guerrero produced -4 DRS and -2 OAA over 299.0 innings at first, both ranked near the bottom of the majors at his position, according to FanGraphs. He also committed a trio of errors, earning him a -6.6 defensive WAR rating.
Embarrassed by his poor showing, the hard-hitting slugger was determined to improve his craft over the winter, starting with his physique. Thanks to his efforts, he dropped roughly 42 pounds leading up to Spring Training 2021, putting himself in a position to succeed.
Guerrero’s efforts not only benefited him at the plate but were a huge difference-maker in the field, as well. Though he struggled at times, almost all his defensive metrics improved during his MVP-calibre performance.
Aside from his OAA rating, which fell to -3, the 2021 Silver Slugger posted career bests in DRS (+2), RngR (2.7), ErrR (-1.0) and UZR (1.8) across 1,143.2 innings. The right-hander also recorded 46 infield assists, which was also a career-high.
The progress didn’t stop there for Guerrero, who continued to build off that success this past season, producing the best statistical defensive performance of his career. In doing that, he earned his first Gold Glove nomination, awarded every season to the top player at each position in both leagues.
Guerrero logged 1,119.0 innings at first base in 2022, 24.2 fewer innings than the previous season, posting a career-best +3 DRS. That ranked tied for seventh among qualified big-league first basemen (min. 500 innings).
The Montreal, Que., native also created +3 OAA in the first half. July, in particular, was his most effective month when he recorded +2 OAA, tied for second in the majors among first basemen.
Between his impressive splits routine, baseball IQ and smooth glove hand, Guerrero significantly impacted his team’s overall infield defense this past season. And no matter how much he struggled offensively, his fielding ability never wavered, showing just how advanced he is for his age.
Of course, there is still plenty of room for growth at first base. Baseball requires continuous adjustments, which the 2021 All-Star Game MVP will be looking to make ahead of his age-24 season.
For starters, Guerrero must clean up some mistakes after committing a career-worst 10 errors in 2022, the third-most at his position. Four went as throwing errors, an area he had previously been spotless in, but they can be addressed by making smarter throwing decisions.
The 2022 Gold Glove nominee’s effectiveness also faded down the stretch, resulting in -6 OAA from August-October. That negatively impacted his overall OAA rating as it fell to -4 on the season.
Part of that was because of Guerrero’s mobility issues when ranging toward his right, registering -3 OAA. He also struggled while charging in on batted balls, producing -2 OAA. Both were career worsts at that position.
But considering Guerrero has endured just two full seasons – and a partial one – at first base, he’s certainly trending in a positive direction. If not for his woes down the stretch, he’d likely possess a much higher chance of winning a Gold Glove this season.
Even if the youngster falls short, he deserves a ton of credit for his defensive progression over the last two years. And if this level of growth continues, chances are he’ll take home at least one defensive accolade before his career concludes.
That’s still several seasons away, though. Guerrero’s time in the majors is barely three seasons old, and it appears he’s just scratching the surface of his full potential. After all, he hasn’t even technically entered his prime years yet.
Guerrero isn’t a finished product, and as his development process continues, it could lead him to emerge as a complete all-around performer in future seasons. Perhaps as early as 2023.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Jeffrey Hayes. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.