UFC 280 Analysis & Betting Guide

UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev – 10.22.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev. This is a loaded event and one of the best fight cards put together in recent memory. Action begins at an early start time from Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 259-151-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 263-147-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-21-2022 at 3pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 10:30am EST

Karol Rosa -330 vs Lina Lansberg +275

Anthony: The card opens with Karol Rosa facing Lina Lansberg. I do not think highly of Rosa but she is the pick here. Many wont be interested after her loss to McMann in March but I still believe Sara is an elite talent that should be respected. Lansberg is 40 years old and far less effective in the the clinch and muay thai compared to earlier in her career. Unless she decides to sell out and shoot for takedowns this will not be Lansberg’s night. I do not think Rosa warrants this price tags but it is hard to argue against her being the side. Karol Rosa by Decision
Nick: Rosa has landed nearly seven strikes per minute in the UFC, so it should come as no surprise that she’s going to want to keep this fight standing as much as possible. She’s coming off a tough loss to Sara McMann, but McMann was a stylistic nightmare for her there as a former Olympic wrestler. Lina Lansberg has a solid overall resume, but she is coming off back to back losses for the first time in her career. Similarly to Rosa, she prefers to stand and strike, but she lands only 2.74 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Rosa is also decent enough in her grappling ability to lean on that part of her game in certain matchups. She averages just shy of 1.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. As the younger and more athletic fighter in this match-up, I see her having success no matter where this one goes. I expect she can win striking exchanges with Lansberg here, but if he’s falling behind the takedowns will be there for her as well. Karol Rosa by Round Three Submission

Muhammad Mokaev -1200 vs Malcolm Gordon +750

Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Malcolm Gordon and the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev. Both are on UFC win streaks with impressive finishes as of late. Mokaev is a monster with elite jiu jitsu and striking unlike anyone else at 125 pounds. He is extremely long and fights well from close range with kicks and other quick flurries. Not only is he big, but pound for pound he has to be one of the strongest in the lower weight classes. Gordon is nowhere near as technical on the feet and he will only have a chance at winning when these two are rolling on the mat. I believe Gordon will rush the shot here in search of an easier fight, and ultimately that will end up his demise. Mokaev is on a completely different level and this is another fight to help and build the hype surrounding him. He will have a supportive home crowd here in Abu Dhabi and I think we are not far from seeing him tested versus a top ten foe. Muhammad Mokaev by Round One Submission
Nick: Mokaev is a highly regarded flyweight prospect, born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 amateur record. He’s coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking for his third here against a borderline ranked opponent in Malcolm Gordon. Gordon is an effective striker with decent defensive wrestling ability, but he’s really never faced a grappler on the level of Mokaev. Additionally, Gordon doesn’t wear damage well and we’ve seen him rocked in many of his fights regardless of the respective outcomes. Gordon’s aggressive style should provide openings for Mokaev to score takedowns here. Even if it doesn’t, I expect Mokaev to ground him with relative ease. The line does feel wide considering the age and experience of Mokaev, but he’s very clearly the side here. He should be able to score takedowns at will until he works Gordon for a finish. I plan to include him in parlays and bet him to win inside the distance. Muhammad Mokaev by Round One Submission

Armen Petrosyan -220 vs A.J. Dobson +180

Anthony: Next is a middleweight bout with Arman Petrosyan taking on A.J. Dobson. I was a bit surprised to see betting odds so wide for this bout considering both men have fewer than ten professional bouts. There is no denying that Dobson is green but he has proven capable of following a gameplan and winning fights here at the highest level. Petrosyan is a very good kickboxer with a clear advantage striking in this matchup, but Dobson is just as dangerous in terms of single strike power. In addition to that path on the feet he could take down Petrosyan to secure a win as have many before. Petrosyan was taken down 9 of 13 attempts over the course of his previous three fights. While Armen may be the right side, I am playing the number and taking Dobson here. I am not convinced he will be grappling but nonetheless this is a winnable matchup. Neither one of these guys deserve the respect of a -220 line. A.J. Dobson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and six of his seven professional wins have come via KO. Dobson is somewhat of a traditional boxer in that he stands fairly straight up in exchanges. He has true KO power, but he’s fairly predictable in his approach as he telegraphs strikes. Additionally, we’ve yet to see him find success against the top level of competition. In a matchup like this one, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dobson try to grapple. That being said, he averages only .78 takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. The line feels a bit wide, but Petrosyan is the side. He’ll be the better striker here in a matchup I expect to take place almost entirely on the feet. Armen Petrosyan by Decision

Preliminary Card- Start 12:00pm EST

Abubakar Nurmagomedov -165 vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev +140

Anthony: The preliminary card opens with a bout at 170 pounds between Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. This is the first time in a very long time we have seen Omargadzhiev make the cut to welterweight. He looks big and strong but I am not very convinced he can get the edge on Nurmagomedov here. Abubakar is the better striker and likely the one winning any exchanges on the mat. He has the superior takedowns and the sambo necessary to slow and stifle the forward moving Omargadzhiev. The power coming back from Omargadzhiev is a bit concerning but I still feel comfortable backing Nurmagomedov at the current odds. Abubakar Nurmagomedov by Round Two KO
Nick: Abubakar Nurmagomedov is 1-1 in the UFC. He is fairly well-rounded, with six professional wins coming via KO and four wins coming via submission. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev is primarily a wrestler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat, advancing position and chasing submissions. As impressive as he’s been regionally, he is coming off the first loss of his career which came in his UFC debut. He was dramatically outgrappled by Caio Borralho, which raises a lot of red flags about his overall resume professionally. Omargadzhiev doesn’t throw much volume on the feet. His striking is far from refined, but he does carry decent power if his opponents make mistakes in exchanges. I see Nurmagomedov as the better striker here, and I’m not confident in Omargadzhiev’s ability to consistently win grappling exchanges. This one could go either way, but Nurmagomedov is the proper favorite. Abubakar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Nikita Krylov -170 vs Volkan Oezdemir +145

Anthony: This is a fight that won’t likely see the scorecards. Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir are two staples of the light heavyweight division. Both have lost a step as of late but Oezdemir looks to be declining a bit more rapidly. He beat Paul Craig his last time out but the speed and output that Oezdemir used to possess is no longer there. Krylov is still a very dangerous finisher and I like him in this fight. Seeing him dispose of Alexander Gustafson so quickly makes me interested in taking him against other aging veterans like this. He is the superior grappler compared to Oezdemir and sans a lapse in Fight IQ, I see him getting the job done. Nikita Krylov by Round Two KO
Nick: Nikita Krylov is more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s a solid kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks. If he can take fights to the mat he’s also an aggressive offensive grappler with fifteen of his twenty-eight professional wins coming by way of Submission. He is coming off an impressive first round KO win over Alexander Gustafsson, but I expect he’s going to want to grapple in this matchup. Volkan Oezdemir is an extremely powerful striker, coming off a solid decision win over a tough out in Paul Craig. He’s faced an extremely high level of competition, but his career does seem to be on a bit of a downturn as his power isn’t quite as devastating as it was when he entered the UFC. In this particular matchup, his striking and power are going to be his most effective tools. I fully believe he still has enough strength to turn Krylov’s lights out, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep this fight standing. He did an excellent job keeping the fight standing his last time out against Craig, but Craig doesn’t have takedown ability on the same level of Krylov. Nikita Krylov by Round Two Submission

Caio Borralho -220 vs Makhmud Muradov +180

Anthony: This is a fun matchup at middleweight with Caio Borralho facing Makhmud Muradov. I consider this a clash of striker and grappler, largely due to the excellent striking possessed by Muradov. He is an elite boxer with very quick hands and excellent combinations. We have seen him struggle against offensive grapplers in the past and while Borralho is solid all-around, I could see him dominating this fight if he were to decide to engage on the mat. Borallho has excellent Fight IQ and with Muradov having such good boxing, one would imagine Borralho will be shooting early and often. He has great striking and a wider arsenal of strikes than Muradov, but I’m not sure he will realize much success at all on the feet. He should have the advantage if this fight goes late and I trust him to grind out a win thanks to solid control time. Caio Borralho by Decision
Nick: Borralho is light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. His striking has been impressive in his short UFC tenure, but he’s found most of his success via grappling and submissions. Makhmud Muradov has excellent footwork, which he uses to stay out of his opponent’s striking range. He’s a highly technical boxer, as a former member of Floyd Mayweather’s Money Team. He’s going to be the more powerful and accurate striker in this matchup, so the longer this fight stays on the feet, the better I think things go for him here. That being said, he is coming off a rough submission loss as a -600 favorite to Gerald Meerschaert. If this fight takes place on the feet, Muradov is going to have a great chance to pull off the upset. That being said, I expect Borralho to force grappling exchanges where he should have a considerable advantage. As long as he stays safe early, Borralho should be able to grind Muradov to the mat and then work him for a submission. Caio Borralho by Round Two Submission

Sean Brady -140 vs Belal Muhammad +115

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with this welterweight matchup between Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad. This is an interesting bout as both men will be looking to grapple and exchange with one another on the mat. Muhammad is a talented wrestler that utilizes top control and persistent forward pressure to win fights convincingly on top. The wet blanket he employs is effective against most thanks to the strength of Belal and his cage grappling. Brady is undefeated and I am interested to see how he performances in a stylistic matchup like this. He is the younger fighter with a cleaner record and I agree with the public believing him to be favored here. Belal has no power and while neither man is a threat on the feet, I am far mire confident backing Brady in a contest that stays standing. I imagine anything could happen when these two get onto the canvas. Sean Brady by Decision
Nick: Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. Brady is one of the more exciting prospects we have at welterweight as he’s still undefeated coming into this matchup. He is a solid striker and an extremely strong and powerful grappler. He has great submission ability as a black belt in jiu jitsu and he’s strong enough to take his opponents’ necks from unconventional positions. This is a very tough fight to call and one I find myself wavering on in terms of making a pick. I initially expected I’d back Muhammad here given his experience advantage, but after watching more film on Brady I feel he’s the side. Muhammad is a talented wrestler, but Brady should have a strength advantage. I see him landing the more powerful shots on the feet and winning more scrambles than Muhammad will over three rounds. Sean Brady by Decision

Main Card- Starts 2:00pm EST

Manon Fiorot -220 vs Katlyn Chookagian +180

Anthony: The main card opens with a women’s flyweight matchup between Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot. Chookagian came in heavy on the scales and will be fined a portion of her purse now as a result. She is a high level fighter who has shared the cage with a lot of this divisions best in the past. Fiorot is undefeated with less experience as a pro, but from what I have seen thus far she is certainly a legitimate contender. Her striking is crisp and she offers a lot more than Chookagian in terms of power and volume. The strikes landed by Fiorot will be far more meaningful than those by Chookagian. I have bet on her in every UFC fight this far and I am not stopping today. Manon Fiorot by Decision
Nick: Fiorot is primarily a striker. She times her kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. This does represent a step up in competition for Fiorot, against a tough out in Katlyn Chookagian. Chookagian is well-rounded with an effective point-striking style. She doesn’t cause a ton of damage, but she fights smart – peppering opponents and letting the fight come to her. She’s most comfortable fighting on her feet. She has outstanding footwork and can put out solid volume and her grappling continues to show improvements as well. She is coming off back-to-back wins over Amanda Ribas and Jennifer Maia. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m going to side with Chookagian here. This is a low confidence play, but the line here feels egregious. Chookagian missed weight for this matchup, but she seemed healthy and strong at ceremonial weigh-ins. Katlyn Chookagian by Decision

Mateusz Gamrot -200 vs Beneil Dariush +160

Anthony: Next is an exciting lightweight matchup with Mateusz Gamrot taking on Beneil Dariush. I think both have what it takes to one day challenge for the title and on this card their talents will be showcased. Gamrot is a former KSW double champion and very well-rounded fighter. He may not have the offensive BJJ to match Dariush but I trust him to hold his own on the mat, and likely win positions of his own. He is physically stronger than Dariush and should be able to negate a lot of his effectiveness grappling. He also has very sophisticated striking and the power to finish just about anyone at this weight class. While he is not very big for 155 pounds, Gamrot is in excellent physical shape. He has proven five round experience and a resume that compares favorably to Dariush. Gamrot is 20-1 as a professional with the only loss coming to Guram Kutetaldze, in what I would consider an awful split decision. I have bet on Gamrot in his past four fights and will do so again here, but I do not like the number.. I think he proves to be the better fighter of these two by staying poised on the mat and hurting Dariush standing. However, it is a much closer matchup than the odds imply. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent matchup here between two extremely talented rising contenders at lightweight. Former KSW double-champ, Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. He’s coming off four consecutive wins under the UFC banner including a main event decision over Arman Tsurukyan and an impressive submission victory over a talented veteran in Diego Ferreira. Dariush is on a seven fight win streak and considered by many to be a dark horse Title Contender in this division. He has an outstanding ground game, but his striking has been what has UFC fans excited lately. He’s a highly technical kick boxer who effectively mixes in creative and timely spinning attacks. Dariush is hyper-aggressive so he sometimes leaves himself open to damage. He’s been wobbled in many of his recent fights, but his chin does seem to hold up more often than not. This is another matchup with Fight of the Night potential, and a fight I could see going either way. However, I’ll side with Gamrot’s athleticism and durability being enough to secure the win. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision

Petr Yan -275 vs Sean O’Malley +225

Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight matchup between Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley. This is the first real test for O’Malley and he is getting the clear top contender in this division. It is an incredible fight stylistically as two striking savants do battle. Yan is a highly technical fighter with elite kickboxing and defensive awareness. Yan does an amazing job countering behind a strong high guard. He is the far more orthodox of these two and utilizes more subtle feints. O’Malley is explosive largely due to his high-volume attack. He likes to pepper strikes at his opponents and I could see him landing at a very high clip tonight against a forward pressuring Yan. He will need to place a few big shots early to earn the respect of the former champion. If O’Malley can avoid falling into the traps Yan sets he should be able to take rounds in this matchup. Normally Yan is fighting in five round bouts but with only fifteen minutes to work his regular gameplan is drastically altered. The Suga Show benefits from a reach and speed advantage that I see being the deciding factor here. This is a massive opportunity for O’Malley and I think in a striking heavy affair he deserves much more of a look than these odds suggest. Sean O’Malley by Decision
Nick: Sean O’Malley has a ridiculous amount of hype behind him right now. He has been winning convincingly with highlight reel knockouts, but most of them have come against mediocre competition. He’s extremely fast with phenomenal striking ability and does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has a ridiculous +4.24 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. He’s coming off a controversial No Contest against a tough out in Pedro Munhoz. Given the anticlimactic result, one could argue we still haven’t seen O’Malley find success against top contenders. Yan is a sniper. He eats some shots to set up bigger ones, but his combinations are what make him so dangerous. He does an excellent job weathering early pressure from his opponents as he processes their timing and habits. He takes in this information and then uses it to trap his opponents and exploit them with his own devastating offense. This should be an even matchup when this fight is standing, but I expect Yan’s grappling advantage to be the difference here. O’Malley carries a mediocre 64% takedown defense in the UFC and Yan averages nearly 1.5 successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. Additionally, O’Malley really hasn’t been tested by anyone near Yan’s level. I’m a fan of O’Malley and what he brings to the cage, but I expect he’s overmatched here. Petr Yan by Round Three KO

Aljamain Sterling -175 vs T.J. Dillashaw +150

Anthony: The co-main event decides the bantamweight title as Aljamain Sterling defends against T.J. Dillashaw. The champion beat Petr Yan convincingly in their second bout and now he seems to be getting the respect he deserves at the betting window. The former champion Dillashaw never lost the 135 pound strap, but was stripped as a result of his USADA suspension. Rarely do I back drug cheats in this sport but I can be impartial in regards to a prediction. Dillashaw is still a championship caliber fighter as evidenced by his return to action versus Cory Sandhagen last summer. He is still a high-volume striker with very good wrestling and strength for his size. Unfortunately for Dillashaw the belt is held by one of the worst stylistic matchups there is for him. While most of this division struggles facing Dillashaw due to grappling, Sterling welcomes any exchanges there with open arms. I think given his size and superior jiu jistu, Sterling can backpack Dillashaw and work toward a finish for a majority of this bout. The weight cut and previous late round showings make me worry about Sterling fading here, but I do think his aggressive style ends up sapping the gas tank of Dillashaw just as much. If able to secure early positions of dominance I see the champion leaving Abu Dhabi with a belt still wrapped around his waist. It is a fight that seems incredibly likely to go to decision and I trust Sterling to show up here and win rounds. And still. Aljamain Sterling by Decision
Nick: Sterling usually comes out extremely aggressively. His strikes don’t pack a ton of power, but he’s extremely accurate and does a good job frustrating his opponents at range with his unconventional style. He is primarily a wrestler with excellent takedown ability and BJJ. His best position is on his opponents’ back(s), which was evident in his most recent title defense over Petr Yan. Dillashaw was issued a two-year USADA Suspension for utilizing EPO for endurance back in 2018. He’s a two-time former Bantamweight champion, coming off an impressive win over another top contender in Cory Sandhagen. He has a solid wrestling base and effective positional grappling ability. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and he packs a lot of power in his punches. Sterling likes to fake level changes a lot to set up takedowns. This should help level the playing field when this fight is standing. This is another close matchup and a tough fight to predict, but I’ll side with Sterling’s momentum and his advantages in the grappling department. It’s going to be tough to ground Dillashaw here, but I think he will eventually. And Still. Aljamain Sterling by Round Four Submission

Islam Makhachev -180 vs Charles Oliveira +155

Anthony: The main event decides the lightweight champion as Islam Makhachev challenges Charles Oliveira. This championship run from Oliveira has been something special and I love his chances at cashing another underdog ticket in this spot. Makhachev is an incredibly talented fighter with excellent offensive grappling. He has strung together ten straight UFC wins and while this is by far his toughest test to date, the potential to earn gold has always been evident. Makhachev’s sambo and wrestling allow him to take just about any lightweight to the canvas. He is very sound defensively and has serviceable striking. Oliveira is however miles ahead of Makhachev on the feet. Not only does Oliveira possess better speed and power than Islam, he also has a reach advantage allowing him to attack from distance. In clinch positions Oliveira utilizes perfect muay thai to stun opponents in every exchange. He has evolved as a fighter rattling off eleven straight win and accruing knockdowns to accompany his all-time submission record. While Oliveira has been beaten numerous times before it has never been in a wrestling heavy fight. I predict that Makhachev struggles to accrue much control time at all in this contest facing such an elusive foe. The champion will put an early pace on Makhachev striking with no fear of the Russian bringing him to the mat. There are going to be plenty of submission opportunities for Oliveira here but I think it is an early knockout that ends up winning him this fight. He has outclassed some of this division’s best boxers while striking, don’t be surprised if he tees off on Makhachev. And still. Charles Oliveira by Round One KO
Nick: Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. He would be defending his title in this spot, but he missed weight by only .5 lbs for his most recent fight, a win over Justin Gaethje. He is on a ten-fight winning streak. He’s going to have a considerable power advantage on the feet here. Islam Makhachev is one of the more promising up-and-comers in the UFC. He is a decorated grappler as a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He pushes a serious pace and has enough wrestling ability to take almost anyone in this division down repeatedly. Makhachev has underrated striking, knockout power and clear draw for the promotion. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he can be highly effective when he does throw. He averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. His greatest strength is most certainly his grappling ability and he’ll look to lean on that part of his game here against a dangerous striker and BJJ threat in Charles Oliveira. Oliveira has a near even striking differential. This means that as technically impressive as he can be offensively, defense is rarely a priority for him. While I don’t expect Makhachev to take advantage of these defensive lapses with strikes, I do see Oliveira’s aggressive striking style creating openings for takedowns. Oliveira is going to be very dangerous early here, but given Makhachev’s outstanding defensive abilities both on the feet and the mat I expect Oliveira has only a small window for the finish. The crowd will be behind Makhachev in a big way here. I expect Makhachev to grind Oliveira out until he ultimately finds a finish in the later rounds. And New. Islam Makhachev by Round Five Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC. UFC.com.