Up until this point, most bullpens had been fairly healthy, with the incumbent closers holding down the fort admirably. Aside from a handful of franchises, the majority of clubs had well defined pecking orders when it came to late game roles.
However as we hit the 2 month mark of the 2022 MLB season, the injury bug has reared its ugly head, sidelining arms that likely went fairly high in your redraft leagues. While some will quickly regain their 9th inning duties once they’re healthy, other closers who may have had a tenuous grasp on the role could face an uphill battle to regain their position once medically cleared.
Here’s how the closer landscape looks across the MLB after the first two months of the year:
Locked In
-Craig Kimbrel, LAD (18IP, 0W, 11SV, 25Ks, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
-Liam Hendriks, CHW (23.2IP, 1W, 16SV, 36Ks, 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
-Josh Hader, MIL (17.2IP, 0W, 18SV, 28Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP)
-Kenley Jansen, ATL (23.2IP, 3W, 14SV, 33Ks, 3.80 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
-Raisel Iglesias, LAA (18.1IP, 1W, 11SV, 25Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
-Edwin Diaz, NYM (22.2IP, 2W, 11SV, 41Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
-Taylor Rogers, SD (24 IP, 0W, 18SV, 26Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP)
-Jordan Romano, TOR (20.1IP, 1W, 16SV, 25Ks, 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Kimbrel has converted 11 of his 12 save opportunities on the season, but owners would love to see that ERA & WHIP come down a touch as we inch towards summer. After 8 straight appearances without giving up an earned run, Kimbrel had a rough two week stretch between May 16-30th, where he gave up 7ERs in only 6.1IP. The good news is he still picked up 6 saves during that time frame, but it was far from smooth sailing. The righty was given a few days rest to iron out his pitch mechanics and has since posted 3 clean innings with 4Ks in June. His numbers might not be the prettiest at the moment, but he remains “the guy” in the Dodgers bullpen.
Since May 16th Hendriks has been near perfect, giving up 0 ERs in 8.1IP, while racking up 13Ks and 7 SVs along the way. The bad back that plagued him earlier this season appears to now be fully in the rearview mirror, as Hendriks currently sits tied for 3rd in MLB with 16 saves on the year. The opportunity to “buy low” on the White Sox closer has likely passed at this point.
Josh Hader is posting video game like numbers this season and is locked in as the games top closer by a comfortable margin. He’s as close to “game over” as it comes when he enters a ballgame. We’re running out of adjectives to describe how dominant he’s been on the bump this year, and evidently so is Yahoo! as they’re resorting to posting player updates when an opposing batter manages to get a hit off him at this point. And even those are few and far between as opponents have only managed to put together a .069BAA when facing the 6’3” lefty in 2022.
Jansen saw his ERA and WHIP dip as low as 2.30 and 0.57 as recently as May 17th. However in his 8 outings since, he’s allowed runs to cross the plate in 6 of them. Now it’s not all doom and gloom as he’s managed to pick up 5 saves and a win during that same span, but he did allow 5 free passes, and 2 HRs since mid-May. Luckily for the towering Dutchman, set up man Will Smith has been equally as shaky of late as well, so it doesn’t appear as though his leash is getting any shorter for the time being.
The month of May was not kind to Angels closer Raisel Iglesias. The 8 year veteran began the month with a sparkling 0.96 ERA and 0.43 WHIP, as he was holding batters to a .100BAA mark in the early going. Since then, it’s been a rollercoaster ride for fantasy owners, as Iglesias has actually registered more losses (4) than saves (3) in his last 7 appearances. Meanwhile, if you throw out a May 17th stinker against the Rangers, Ryan Tepera has been quietly putting together a solid season. There’s no cause for concern here yet, as Iglesias still has a firm hold on the closer role, but Joe Maddon has never been one to stick with something if it isn’t working. So if the Cuban national can’t turn things around over the next few outings, perhaps he gets an ever so brief reprieve from the role to sort things out. Long term however, this is still Iglesias’ bullpen.
Edwin Diaz has been fantasy gold for managers this year, posting a 41:10 K/BB ratio through the first two months of the season. Of the 6 ERs he’s given up thus far, 3 have been solo shots, so owners are hoping he can settle down and fall more in line with the 2021 version of himself (3HRs allowed, 62.2IP) versus the 2019 version (15HRs allowed in 58IP). The only thing holding Diaz back at this point is the Mets high octane offense which is limiting his save opportunities. New York’s +82 run differential is 3rd best in the majors trailing only the Yankees & Dodgers. Aside from that there’s very little to grumble about when it comes to the Mets closer.
After cruising through the first month and a half of the season, Rogers hit a bumpy patch in late May which saw his 0.44 ERA balloon up north of 3.00. The Padres closer took 3 consecutive losses between May 28th and June 2nd, but appears to have settled down since recording two clean outings against the Brewers. San Diego loves to pick one arm and ride it for the season, so there’s zero concern here that Rogers will be losing his hold on late inning duties anytime soon.
Unless the wheels truly fall off on Romano, he should be good to go for the duration of the 2022 campaign for the Blue Jays. However, risk averse owners may also want to consider grabbing Adam Cimber as a backup plan juuuuuust incase anything were to happen to the Oral Roberts alum. In Romano’s last 8 appearances he’s given up 7 hits, 4 walks and a home run. Granted, he’s also registered 4 saves during this timeframe, but they’ve hardly been of the “slam the door shut” variety. No reason to sound any alarm bells yet, but batters are currently hitting .234 against the righty through the end of May, the highest BAA he’s had against him in 2022. Romano has been off since May 31st as he continues to deal with a reported case of “gastrointestinal distress”.
Their Job to Lose
-Ryan Pressly, HOU (13.2IP, 1W, 10SV, 10Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
-Gregory Soto, DET (19IP, 2W, 10SV, 16Ks, 1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
-Emmanuel Clase, CLE (21.1IP, 1W, 9SV, 24Ks, 2.11 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)
-David Robertson, CHC (21.2IP, 1W, 7SV, 30Ks, 1.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)
-Camilo Doval, SF (22.2IP, 0W, 8SV, 25Ks, 3.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
-Jorge Lopez, BAL (27IP, 3W, 7SV, 25Ks, 1.00 ERA, 0.96 WHIP)
-David Bednar, PIT (27IP, 2W, 10SV, 37Ks, 1.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP)
-Joe Barlow, TEX (19.1IP, 1W, 10SV, 18Ks, 2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
-Daniel Bard, COL (21.1IP, 3W, 11SV, 27Ks, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
Pressly began the year slow, but then went on a tear in late May recording 6 saves in 6 appearances to close out the month. Owners would like to see his K totals increase as he’s historically been at least a K per inning or better pitcher. As it stands, 2022 would be the first time since 2016 that the 33 year old would fall short of the K+/IP mark. There were some concerns with Pressly’s velocity at the start of the season, and while it’s improved slightly it’s still falling short of his career averages. Father time remains undefeated…
Soto owners have to be pleasantly surprised with the Tigers’ closers’ results to start the 2022 campaign. The 6’1” Dominican is in line for a career year in virtually every category, and currently sits 11th in the majors with 10 saves thus far. Ranked 207th heading into the season by Yahoo!, Soto is delivering 10th round value for a player likely taken by managers who missed out on some of the big name closers earlier on. For those who were holding onto Fulmer in the hopes that Soto stumbled out of the gate, you’re likely safe to drop him now.
Sticking with the AL Central, Clase has been steadily lowering his ERA & WHIP over the last several weeks after a rocky start to the year. With 5 multi-strikeout appearances in his last 8 outings, owners are starting to reap the rewards of their patience with the hard throwing righty. Clase has converted 9 of his 11 save opportunities and is on the cusp of cracking the upper echelon of fantasy closers.
David Robertson has been stellar for the Cubs through the first two months of the year, contributing in multiple categories, and posting tremendous overall numbers for a player likely taken as a late round flyer or picked up off waivers in many leagues. There’s no concern that Wick or Givens will be eating into his 9th inning duties anytime soon. However, savvy managers would be wise to put an internal clock on his production. With the Cubs sporting the league’s 7th worst win percentage, the North Siders are almost assuredly going to be sellers at the trade deadline. And there will be no shortage of suitors lining up to acquire Robertson’s services. With it highly unlikely that whatever contender he’s ultimately flipped to will use him as their primary closer, you may be well served to try to flip Robertson around the All-Star break before trade deadline rumours kick into full gear and other fantasy managers wisen up to the righty’s dwindling fantasy potential.
What began as a committee, has now officially turned into the Doval show in the Bay Area. McGee and Rogers are highly unlikely to factor into the save mix moving forward as the Giants have fully turned over the reins to the 24 year old Dominican. San Francisco has used Doval in some odd situations of late, including a 6th inning relief appearance, but the fireballer has all the tools to be a reliable back of the rotation arm for years to come. Giants pitching coach Curt Young may be having a chat with Doval in the near future regarding his overreliance on his slider (he threw 9 sliders on 10 total pitches in a recent outing against the Phillies) but outside of that, the future is bright for the youngster.
Jorge Lopez earns a bump up the ladder with his continued stellar play of late. The 29 year old took a murky late innings situation in Baltimore and established himself as the clear go to guy for Brandon Hyde. The Puerto Rican righty hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 19th, and is in line for a career year across the board. If you really want to pick nits, you can point towards his propensity to issue more walks than you’d like to see out of a closer (25:13 K/BB ratio), but no one else in the Orioles bullpen is currently breathing down his neck for save opportunities at the moment.
Joining Lopez in the “Their Job to Lose” department is Pirates closer David Bednar who silenced his doubters through the first two months of the year. Not only does he have sparkling ERA/WHIP totals, but he’s also making meaningful contributions in the strikeout department as well. Of his 22 appearances on the season, only once (May 15th against the Reds) did he fail to record at least one punchout. In fact, amongst all relievers who have recorded at least 5 saves on the year, Bednar’s 37Ks trail only Edwin Diaz for most in the majors. He may not get to 35+ saves by virtue of playing for Pittsburgh, but Bednar owners will happily take 20-25 saves with shining peripheral stats.
Meanwhile in Texas, Joe Barlow makes it a trifecta getting a bump up the confidence ladder this week as he’s thrived in the late inning role for the Rangers so far. Bush and Santana may have been in the mix for saves in the early part of the season but with Barlow converting 10 of 11 save opportunities, and Bush being 1 for 4 in that department, it’s tough to see anyone dethroning the Salt Lake CC alum anytime soon. Santana has posted solid numbers, but Chris Woodward prefers to use him as a setup man through the early part of the season. Barlow doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s able to get timely outs when called upon.
Finally, we’ve doubted him all season long, but Rockies closer Daniel Bard continues to produce. The soon to be 37 year old had a rough stretch between May 11th and 16th where he picked up two losses, and allowed 5 runs in 2.1IP where we thought he was finally coming back down to earth. But since then he’s posted 6 clean appearances with 2 wins and 2 saves to boot. He also managed to walk 6 batters during that span, but he’s been able to get himself out of trouble by racking up strikeouts and avoiding hard contact. Similar to Robertson though, the Rockies are in the basement of the NL West and will likely be sellers at the trade deadline. So as long as fantasy managers have an internal clock set, then by all means, ride the veteran while he’s hot.
On the Mend
-Aroldis Chapman, NYY (14IP, 0W, 9SV, 15Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.64 WHIP)
-Anthony Bender, MIA (11IP, 0W, 6SV, 10Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP)
-Andrew Kittredge, TB (15IP, 2W, 4SV, 12Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP)
Chapman continues to recover from “discomfort in his left Achilles tendon” which is never a ligament you want injuries to revolve around. The latest update is that he played catch for the first time since landing on the IL. The lefty hasn’t appeared in a game since getting lit up by the White Sox on May 22nd. There’s no reason to think he won’t regain his closing duties once healthy, but when that might be is anyone’s guess at this point. Clay Holmes (4-0, 0.34 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 28:3 K/BB ratio, 8 saves) has been phenomenal in Chapman’s absence, so in all likelihood, the Bronx Bombers will take it slow with his recovery.
Anthony Bender continues to rehab a bad back which put him on the IL following a May 18th appearance. Bender reportedly plans to play catch this week, but appears to still be a ways away from returning to game action. With their closer sidelined, the Marlins have used a committee approach with Bass/Sulser/Floro/Scott all getting cracks at high leverage situations. Scott has managed to put together a win and a save in his last two outings so perhaps he should be viewed as the favourite moving forward, but the reality is Miami isn’t going to see a ton of save opportunities, so it’s really throwing darts at this point. If all goes well, Bender could be back towards the end of the month.
Speaking of bad backs, Andrew Kittredge was activated off the IL this week following his back issues. He was eased into action tossing a clean inning against the White Sox on June 5th in a non-save situation. While he was on the shelf, Colin Poche recorded a win, a hold, and 2 saves, but it’s the Rays, so unless you’re somehow related to Kevin Cash, it’s hard to know what they’ll do next when it comes to saves.
We Want to Trust You
-Corey Knebel, PHI (23IP, 2W, 9SV, 21Ks, 3.52 ERA, 1.30WHIP)
-Tanner Rainey, WAS (17.1P, 1W, 7SV, 20Ks, 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
-Mark Melancon, ARI (18.1IP, 1W, 11SV, 11Ks, 6.87 ERA, 1.80 WHIP)
-Dany Jimenez, OAK (12IP, 1W, 5SV, 14Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
As of now Corey Knebel remains the arm to own in Philadelphia. That being said, with Girardi out as manager, and Rob Thomson serving as interim bench boss, nothing’s set in stone with the Phillies for the remainder of the year. Knebel drew the ire of Philadelphia sports media after giving up homers in back to back games on May 29th & 30th (both ultimately resulting in Philadelphia losses), and he’s allowed 4 runs in his last 4.1IP. Meanwhile Brad Hand hasn’t allowed a run since May 4th, and currently sports a 1.13 ERA and has run his streak to 13 consecutive clean outings. The Denton, Texas native isn’t on the hot seat per se, but he’s also far from having a comfortable hold on the closer position. Save hungry managers could do worse than to add Hand or Seranthony Dominguez as a speculative arm and monitor this situation moving forward.
On the extremely rare chance you play in a super deep NL only league, and are holding onto Finnegan or Cishek in the hopes that Rainey would falter, you’re officially safe to drop them. The 29 year old right hander has recorded 4 saves in his last 5 outings, and has limited the free passes (20:6 K/BB ratio) which plagued him in years past thus far. His home (0-0 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 4 saves) and away (1-1, 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 3 saves, 2 blown saves) are a little unsettling, but given how infrequently the Nationals find themselves in save situations to begin with, owners aren’t going to be sitting Rainey anytime soon.
Arizona was likely hoping to showcase Melancon for the first half of the season and then flip him for prospects at the deadline. But the veteran closer has done little to inspire confidence in his abilities so far. The problem is that the 37 year old can’t overpower hitters anymore, resulting in low K totals, and when he gives up runs, he tends to do so in bunches. Of the 9 games he’s allowed runners to cross home plate in 2022, 5 of them have been multi-run games. Ian Kennedy performed well enough during Melancon’s early season absence, and likely stands to benefit from Melancon leaving town later this summer. Those truly desperate for saves could do worse than adding Kennedy and hoping Melancon continues to struggle.
Jimenez earned a bump up from the coinflip department, and appeared to be knocking on the door for the next level until an ugly stretch from May 27th onwards tempered expectations. In a 5 day span, Jimenez coughed up 8ERs in 2.1IP to see his ERA go from 0.49 to 3.92. The encouraging sign is that he’s still yet to allow a HR on the year, and his K:BB ratio (22:10) is solid but not spectacular. One has to remember that the 28 year old has all of 23IP of career MLB experience, so there’s still very much an adjustment period going on here. Oakland will definitely be sellers at the deadline, but it’s hard to see a scenario in which they’d consider moving their newly minted closer.
Coinflips
-Ryan Helsley, STL (21.1P, 2W, 3SV, 30Ks, 0.42 ERA, 0.52 WHIP)
-Scott Barlow, KC (23IP, 2W, 5SV, 22Ks, 1.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
–Emilio Pagan, MIN (18IP, 1W, 7SV, 22Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP)
For those who’ve been paying attention to the site, we advised you to pick up Helsley back in mid-May. The 6’2” righty has been dominant this year, and even when he wasn’t picking up saves, was still posting serviceable numbers for those in roto-leagues with inning caps. Oli Marmol may be riding the hot hand for the time being as Gallegos’ numbers (3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8 saves, 28Ks) haven’t been bad, but as we’ve said all year, the Cardinals are a veteran team with legitimate World Series aspirations in Pujols/Molina’s last seasons. This is a fluid situation, but Helsley appears to have the inside track for the time being.
Scott Barlow is up to 5 saves on the year, while Staumont has registered 3 to date. Mike Matheny has largely been mixing and matching his late inning duties over the first two months, but Barlow seems to be trotting out to the mound slightly more frequently than Staumont so we’d lean every so slightly in his direction at the moment. But nothing is set in stone with the Royals as of yet.
We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating. The long term play in Minnesota is Jhoan Duran, but until he fully wrestles the mantle from Pagan, it’s going to be a coinflip. Duran owners would have liked for the flamethrowing 24 year old to have showcased himself in Toronto while Pagan was on the restricted list (as he was unvaccinated), but alas, there were no save opportunities to be found. Moran managed to pick up a 1 out vulture save after Duffey coughed up 3 runs late, but what was encouraging was that the Twins used Duran to shut the door in the 8th in a high leverage situation. If you had to choose 1 arm today to get you a save, it would be Pagan, but Duran’s time is coming.
Committees
Houck/Schreiber/Diekman/Brasier, BOS
Castillo/Munoz/Sewald, SEA
Santillan/Diaz/Warren, CIN
For those keeping track, the Red Sox latest list of “potential closers” is almost entirely different from our last time out. Boston has finally begun to win games after their horrific start to the year, but they’ve been mostly of the blowout variety with few save opportunities available to shed light on their late inning roles. 6 different Red Sox relievers currently have saves, but of those 6, 5 have blown at least one save opportunity. This could remain a committee until the trade deadline when one has to figure the Red Sox will be actively looking to bolster their bullpen.
Of all the bullpen messes, Seattle could possibly be on the cusp of sorting itself out. What began as essentially an open audition for the role, seems to be narrowing itself down to Castillo and Sewald. Castillo owns the most recent save (a 7-4 win over Houston on June 6th), but 2 prior saves went to Sewald. Aside from a 5 run disaster on May 22nd Andres Munoz has been steadily producing solid outings, but his last save came way back on April 22nd and he appears to be settling into a set up role more than a closer of late. If we had to guess today we’d lean towards Sewald, but this one is still up in the air.
Unless you’re truly desperate for saves, Cincinnati is likely a situation to avoid altogether. Santillan has converted the last two saves for the Reds, but his bloated 5.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP show just how shaky his outings can be. Alexis Diaz has the more impressive arsenal of pitches at his disposal but hasn’t been utilized much in the late stages of games. And despite having 3 saves on the year, Art Warren isn’t faring much better than Santillan. If you’re in a massive league or NL only/keeper format, there’s logic to stashing the 25 year old Diaz and hoping he takes control of closing duties later on, but outside of that, the Reds relievers are a mess.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner