We continue our offseason coverage with a rundown of the NFC North. The North has been something of a one-team division over the last decade. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have won eight division titles since 2011, and will be looking to win their fourth in a row this season, but they’ll have some stiff competition from the Minnesota Vikings.
On the other end of the division, the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears feel like they’re heading in different directions. The Lions could be an exciting team that could take major strides in 2022, while the Bears…well, let’s talk about the Bears.
Chicago Bears
Biggest Strength: Young talent
It’s hard to get excited about the Chicago Bears in 2022, but let’s give it a try. This is not a Super Bowl contending roster, but there are players that should give the Bears hope. Let’s start with Justin Fields. His rookie season underwhelmed, but Fields is an electric playmaker. His big-time throw rate was the third-highest in the NFL, per PFF, a sign that his arm talent is the real deal, but Fields still has a lot of work to do. However, Fields is the best hope the Bears have had under center in…a long time.
Despite the Bears not having much talent at receiver, they do have another potential star in Darnell Mooney. The former fifth-round pick finished with over 1000 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his second season in the NFL. The offense will rely on Mooney’s ability to stretch defenses with his speed, as he appears to be the real deal.
On defense, the same issues arise, but the Bears have two young studs to build around: Roquan Smith and Jaylon Johnson. Smith has made a name for himself as one of the premier do-it-all linebackers in the NFL, while Johnson could develop into a lockdown corner with a bit of help. The plus side is that all four of those players are 25 years old or younger. The building blocks exist in Chicago, but who will put the pieces together?
Biggest Weakness: One of the worst rosters in the NFL
Aside from their young building blocks, things are a mess in Chicago. Poor roster construction and recent draft selections have left the Bears with one of the weakest rosters in the NFL. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Bears end up with the worst record in the league in 2023, and that could be the plan. But it’s still a bad roster that could hurt the development of Fields and co.
The lack of talent on the offensive line and at the receiver position points towards another tough year for Fields. He was pressured on 42.8 percent of his dropbacks in 2021, per PFF, and the offensive line might even be worse this season. The same goes for the receiving group. Allen Robinson may have had a poor season, but the Bears have struggled to replace him and only really have Darnell Mooney as a real pass catching option.
Things aren’t much better on the defensive line and will be worse once the Bears trade away Robert Quinn to a contending team. It’s hard to look at this team and see a scenario where they overperform. Stranger things have happened, but Bears fans should prepare for a long season.
Detroit Lions
Biggest Strength: Offensive Line
Dan Campbell oozes grittiness, so it makes sense that the Lions are strong in the trenches – especially on the offensive line. The Lions are young, but their offensive line has the chance to be one of the best in the NFL in 2022. Frank Ragnow has been one of the best centers in the league for the last couple of seasons, and the Lions’ 2021 first-round pick, Penei Sewell, finished with a run-blocking grade of 84.5, per PFF, the 10th-best grade among all tackles. His fellow tackle, Taylor Decker, allowed just 15 total pressures on Jared Goff’s blindside.
Along with their three studs at the tackle positions and at center, the Lions have two serviceable guards in Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai to complete the set. All five players are either great at pass-blocking and competent run-blockers, or vice versa. Not many offensive lines boast that kind of talent. We’ll be talking about them among the league’s elite in no time at all.
Biggest Weakness: Cornerbacks
The Lions improved greatly towards the end of the 2021 season, but they’re still a young team with holes – completely understandable since they’ve had a top 10 pick in the last three drafts. Unlike the Bears, though, they’re heading in the right direction. But, like their divisional rivals, they’re weak at the cornerback position.
Jeff Okudah, the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has, so far, been a huge disappointment. It’s hard not to view him as a let down when he’s only played in 10 games in two years and when Okudah has been on the field, he’s looked overmatched. A lot of it is down to bad luck and injuries, though, so Okudah could still find his feet in the NFL, but it’s been a rough start.
The Lions defense was 30th in the NFL in dropback EPA and 27th in pass DVOA. Their cornerbacks struggled to defend all areas of the field and contributed to a struggling defensive unit. Like we’ve said, the Lions are young and will hopefully improve, but it could take a while. Teams with competent quarterbacks will have a field day.
Green Bay Packers
Biggest Strength: Aaron Rodgers
How could it not be?
Rodgers isn’t everyone’s cup of tea off the field, but on it, he’s a four-time MVP, winning the last two awards back-to-back. Even at 38 years old, Rodgers can do things that most quarterbacks can only dream of doing. He’s incredibly accurate, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can make every throw you ask of him. Rodgers is still a top-three quarterback in the NFL.
The Packers offense has undoubtedly regressed this offseason. Losing Davante Adams, the best receiver in the NFL, will do that to you. However, the Packers will still be one of the favourites in the NFC – partly because of an improved defense and great offensive line – but mostly because of Rodgers at quarterback.
There isn’t much more to say about a quarterback that’s done it all and seen it all. The Packers will go as Rodgers goes, but he’ll have his work cut out in 2022.
Biggest Weakness: Options at Receiver
The reason Rodgers will have his work cut out? Well, his options at wide receiver aren’t exactly among the league’s best, and it’s probably tough to even call them a league-average unit. As mentioned, the Packers traded away Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason and have, predictably, had a tough time replacing him.
Heading into the season, the Packers depth chart is filled with so-so veterans and young receivers with blemishes and question marks. Randall Cobb has been a favourite target of Rodgers’ for the last decade, but he’s now 31 and played a limited role last season. Allen Lazard is the presumed X receiver and finished with 8 touchdowns in 2021, but has never had more than 40 catches in a season – can he make the jump to a number one receiver?
Sammy Watkins has struggled to stay on the field during his career and had just 27 catches for the Ravens in 2021 – he can no longer be considered a difference maker. The Packers best hope at receiver is Christian Watson, their second-round rookie out of North Dakota State. Watson has all of the tools to be a success in the NFL, but he’s raw. It’ll take time for him to really find his feet.
The Packers are in a better position than most teams would be in this situation, purely because of Rodgers, but yeah, this isn’t great. The Packers may be stalking the receiver market closer to the trade deadline.
Minnesota Vikings
Biggest Strength: Pass Rushers
The Vikings pass rush is going to be a different beast in 2022 – and that’s saying something for a team that finished with the second-most sacks in the NFL last season. The Vikings defense did all of that, while having the fourth-worst pass rush win rate in the entire league, per ESPN, and without some key players, including Danielle Hunter who missed half of the Vikings schedule due to injury.
When he’s healthy, Hunter is one of the most disruptive rushers in the game. His pass-rush win rate of 20 percent led the Vikings, and his 31 total pressures were fifth on the team despite only playing 7 games. He’s bendy, powerful, has really worked on the technical side of his game – and as a result, Hunter has three seasons with double-digit sacks in his career.
To make things even better, the Vikings added Za’Darius Smith to their defense, with the former Packer signing a three-year deal in free agency. Smith spent most of the 2021 season on the sidelines, but had 26 sacks in his first two years with Green Bay. If both players can stay healthy, the Vikings defense could be a real problem.
Biggest Weakness: Pass Blocking
The Vikings have a great roster that can feasibly challenge the Packers for the NFC North crown, but they have a glaring weakness – the same weakness that hurt them in 2021: the offensive line’s ability to pass block.
Kirk Cousins was pressured 206 times last season, the 11th-most in the NFL. However, he was only responsible for 4.1 percent of those pressured dropbacks, per PFF. That puts a lot of responsibility on the Vikings offensive line for those struggles. Right tackle Brian O’Neill has developed into a great tackle, but the rest of the line pales in comparison. The Vikings will hope that Christian Darrisaw can improve in his second season, but there’s some serious doubts about the interior offensive line.
Garrett Bradbury had the worst pass-blocking grade among all centers in 2021 (min. 500 snaps) and the Vikings second round pick in 2020, Ezra Cleveland, has had a tough time acclimating to the NFL. The team’s cap situation made it difficult to strengthen the offensive line in free agency, but the Vikings were able to sign former Dolphins lineman Jesse Davis. Whether Davis, part of a very bad Dolphins offensive line, can make an impact is up for debate, but the signs aren’t good.
The Vikings will need to protect Cousins if they want a chance to make the postseason in 2022, but their struggles in pass-blocking could continue.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport