UFC Vegas 54 Breakdown

UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz vs Rakic – 5.14.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz vs Rakic. After last weekend’s exciting pay-per-view, action returns to the UFC Apex tonight for a solid slate of fights with some rather intriguing matchups. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 116-68-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 123-61-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 5-13-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:30pm EST

Nick Maximov -400 vs Andre Petroski +300

Anthony: The card today opens with a bout at middleweight between Nick Maximov and Andre Petroski. The placement of this fight is a bit peculiar after Maximov was last booked in a co-main event where he beat Punahele Soriano. The undefeated prospect implemented a frenetic pace grappling, landing 11 of 16 takedowns to win in that matchup. He is a product of the Nick Diaz Academy and a close friend to both Diaz brothers, but it is clear Maximov still needs more time to fully develop his stand up skills. I do not think that striking deficiency will negatively impact Maximov against an opponent like Andre Petroski today. We have also seen a wrestling heavy approach from Petroski in most of his fights, and he will be outmatched when these two hit the mat here. I do not think he has the cardio or technical skills to keep up with Maximov for a full fifteen minutes. This is a clear step down in competition after Maximov was able to dictate things against a much more potent finisher this February. The odds have certainly gotten wide but he is the rightful favorite in this spot. Nick Maximov by Round Three Submission
Nick: Nick Maximov is a product of the Nick Diaz Academy. He’s a talented grappler with a powerful wrestling base and a seemingly infinite arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off a solid win over Punahele Soriano via decision. He did a good job leaning on his grappling in that spot, scoring eleven takedowns over the course of three rounds. Andre Petroski was a favorite to win the last season of The Ultimate Fighter, but he fell to finalist Bryan Battle where he got caught in a submission in the first round. Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes so in most matchups he’s best suited leaning on his grappling. While there are certainly similarities between these two fighters, Petroski is blatantly flawed as he has questionable cardio and durability. We’ve seen him fade in many of his fights, which will likely cost him here against a fighter in Maximov who has shown he can grind for three rounds. This fight should be competitive early, but I expect Maximov’s relentless wrestling approach to wear on Petroski. I also see Maximov as the more technical striker if this fight stays standing. The line has gotten out of hand, but Maximov is the pick. Nick Maximov by Round Three Submission

Tatsuro Taira -285 vs Carlos Candelario +225

Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Tatsuro Taira and Carlos Candelario. This bout was scheduled to take place two weeks ago but Candelario unfortunately fell ill. He had a tougher weight cut this time around but was successful at making the flyweight limit on his second attempt. At just 22 years old, Taira is a very exciting prospect making his promotional debut. He has been on a very promising run in Japan and I am excited to see him tested here against a live opponent in Candelario. The most impressive aspect of Taira’s game is his grappling with excellent trip takedowns and powerful throws to help navigate him into dominant positions. Candelario is certainly a fighter with solid jiu jitsu of his own, but I do not think it compares to what we have seen thus far from Taira. This will be a greasy fight for as long as things are standing but I think we see Taira take control of things shortly after engaging on the mat. Candelario was signed by Dana White after a close loss in the Contender Series, but I am not convinced he should be competing against guys at this level. Tasuro Taira by Round Two Submission
Nick: Carlos Candelario was the first ever losing fighter to be awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. It was a controversial decision and he showed a well-rounded game, but ultimately fell to Victor Altamirano as his cardio started to fade in later rounds. Candelario seems to have solid technical striking ability. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents, but his gas tank seems to wane fairly quickly if he’s forced to grappler extensively. Tatsura Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He’s only twenty-two years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he striked with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. The one real knock on him in terms of his striking is that he doesn’t really put out much volume. He seems to wait for fights to come to him, which isn’t going to work well for long at the UFC level. The line certainly feels too wide here, but Taira does seem to be the rightful favorite. I expect he should be able to secure multiple takedowns on Candelario here to either grind out a decision or score a Submission. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission

Virna Jandiroba -210 vs Angela Hill +165

Anthony: Here we have a women’s strawweight fight between Virna Jandiroba and Angela Hill. I have never been very high on Hill, a fighter who barely sits above .500 in her long career. She has some decent striking but really poses little to no threat in terms of power in this division. Most of her scraps end up being close decisions and I am expecting more of the same here today. While she is much better technically than Jandiroba on the feet, I worry about her ability to defend in grappling exchanges here. Jandiroba is one of the better BJJ practitioners on the UFC’s roster. She fell short in her most recent loss, but she had again been paired with a jiu jitsu ace that could compete with her on the mat. I expect her to have a much easier time here controlling and even threatening submissions against Hill. While I am not eager to bet on Jandiroba as a sizable favorite, I strongly advise against putting any of your hard-earned money on 37-year-old Angela Hill. Virna Jandiroba by Decision
Nick: Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. She’s most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her wrestling leave a lot to be desired. This fight will mark Angela Hill’s 20th with the UFC. She’s well-rounded, with a powerful muay thai base. She is a competent grappler with decent BJJ, but most of her success has come striking both in the clinch as well as in open space. Hill should have a technical advantage when this fight is standing, but Jandiroba should be able to match her power. That being said, I expect Jandiroba to eventually ground Hill. Her advantages on the mat seem more significant than Hill’s will be on the feet. Virna Jandiroba by Decision

Michael Johnson -150 vs Alan Patrick +125

Anthony: Next up is an interesting lightweight bout between Michael Johnson and Alan Patrick. These are two skidding fighters that may just need a win to remain on the UFC roster. Johnson has not won a fight since 2018 when he handed Artem Lobov his third consecutive loss in the final fight of his mixed martial arts career. Johsnon has since lost four fights himself and looked very mediocre overall. He had always been a dangerous, lanky striker but now his durability has started to fade and the strikes are landing with a lot less effect than they had been. Patrick has also not won a bout since 2018, but he has been far less active overall. The move from X Gym to Chute Boxe Diego Lima is certainly one I can get behind, but I find it hard to expect much improvement from Patrick at the age of 38. However, I feel like he has much more motivation and energy than Johnson at this stage of his career. It will be a very tough fight but I see a decision victory likely going to the fighter with superior cardio and overall grit. Nuguette also holds the advantage in terms of jiu jitsu, making him an attractive bet as the small underdog. Alan Patrick by Decision
Nick: The loser of this matchup likely finds themself cut from the UFC roster as neither fighter has tasted victory since 2018. Michael Johnson was once considered a future title contender at 155 pounds. He has notable wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. That being said, there’s really no denying he’s a shell of the fighter he was in his prime. Johnson is a highly technical southpaw striker but his fight IQ and durability have deteriorated over the years. Alan Patrick is coming off a controversial No Contest against Mason Jones. He was getting dominated in that fight, but he embellished an accidental eye poke and the fight was called off due to a doctor stoppage. He’s a pressure grappler who relentlessly pursues takedowns. He usually doesn’t score much damage when he scores them, but he’s shown solid cardio and an overall ability to control the pace of a fight. Johnson has a consistent sprawl, he defends takedowns at an impressive 77 percent and Patrick is only successful on a third of his attempts. I expected Johnson to be the much better striker here and I don’t really see Patrick keeping him grounded. This is a low confidence play as neither fighter has given us reason to be confident in them lately. Still, Johnson feels like the rightful favorite. Michael Johnson by Round Two KO

Andrea Lee -130 vs Viviane Araujo +105

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with this women’s flyweight bout as Andrea Lee takes on Viviane Araujo. This is yet another tough opponent for Araujo as she tries to find her place in this division. She has excellent footwork and very good entries, but the well-rounded skill set of Lee will pose a lot of issues here. Perhaps Araujo can take her to the mat and find a win using her grappling but I find myself more inclined to side with the fighter on an impressive winning streak. Lee has secured two straight victories by finish, submitting Antonina Shevchenko and seeing her fight with Cynthia Calvillo called between rounds. She has outstruck all but one opponent since joining the UFC and really seems to be improving when it comes to landing with power. While Araujo lands strikes at a similar clip, her defense is nowhere near the level of Lee. We should see a quick start from the more active and aggressive Lee today, making her a confident bet for me at near even odds. Araujo has not shown me anything compelling enough to warrant a fade of KGB tonight. Andrea Lee by Decision
Nick: We have a close matchup here between two solid contenders at flyweight. Araujo is also going to be content to stand and trade here. She throws fast and heavy volume on the feet and will likely land the more meaningful punches in this matchup. Andrea Lee is athletic with excellent cardio. She’s extremely well-rounded with dangerous kickboxing, a solid judo base and dangerous BJJ. Araujo will have a power advantage here. Her strikes are explosive, she has an excellent front kick and throws powerful combinations. She works well behind her jab and her footwork is advanced. That being said, I expect Lee to have the grappling advantage here. She should be able to hang on the feet with Araujo, but if she has any trouble there at all she should be able to take this fight to the ground. Araujo is a decent grappler in her own right, but I’m not as confident in her entries or her ability to hold position. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll side with the more well-rounded Lee here. Andrea Lee by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Jake Hadley -215 vs Allan Nascimento +175

Anthony: Opening the main card is a clash between flyweights Jake Hadley and Allan Nascimento. The debut for Hadley was expected to come earlier in this year but tonight he will finally make the walk against Nascimento who he had been scheduled to face at UFC London. Hadley was signed off an impressive win on Dana White’s Contender Series despite missing weight prior to that bout. He is an undefeated prospect with incredibly slick jiu jitsu and overall grappling skills. There is still a lot to be desired in terms of Hadley’s striking ability but fighting a guy like Nascimento makes me doubt he gets tested much on the feet. Nascimento is also a BJJ specialist who really is content to play in his guard in most fights that we see. I do not expect him to find much success at all shooting on a guy like Hadley, so it likely will be a fight largely consisting of Nascimento once again chasing submissions off his back. It is difficult to bet on a guy like that under normal circumstances but even more so today against a fighter like Hadley that I hold in very high regard. Nascimento may not have a clear path to victory in this bout but I do respect his durability and willingness to fight hard for a full fifteen minutes. However, I see him doing very little in this matchup apart from intelligently defending and protecting his neck at all costs. Jake Hadley by Decision
Nick: Allan Nascimento is coming off a hard fought decision loss to a highly regarded prospect in Tagir Ulanbekov. He has outstanding BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles, he does a good job keeping a consistent pace to put pressure on his opponents. Nascimento isn’t afraid to pull guard, he’s extremely aggressive with submissions offensively. Jake Hadley will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Mitch Raposo. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, including with Cage Warriors where he captured the flyweight title. He’s a talented grappler with dangerous BJJ but he’s also a competent striker. Hadley’s takedown defense isn’t great, but he has solid enough BJJ to work himself into favorable positions. He does a good job working his way back to his feet and it seems he knows how to mostly stay out of danger. This fight is a lot closer than the line suggests here, but I’m siding with Hadley. I expect his likely strength advantage should be enough to control position on the mat for the better part of three rounds. Jake Hadley by Decision

Manuel Torres -130 vs Frank Camacho +105

Anthony: Next up is a matchup at lightweight between Frank Camacho and Manuel Torres. The brevity of Torres’ fights makes him a pleasure to tape study for. He is an aggressive Mexican fighter who certainly lives up to the nickname El Loco. Not only has he showcased exciting striking combinations and unorthodox attacks, but also the ability to take a measured approach and use his footwork to set up counters when needed. He also has an uncanny ability to find the neck of his opponent although grappling is not a primary discipline of his. Perhaps Torres built up too much hype given the novice competition he has been facing, but Camacho is a declining veteran that I think he can get one over on. Camacho is just 2-5 since entering the UFC. Seeing him starched by Justin Jaynes his last time out makes hesitant to take him against anyone with fundamental striking skills. He is known to get into back-and-forth brawls and I see the younger and more explosive Torres beating him to the punch in most exchanges here. I am not very confident making this pick, but I have to fade Camacho in what could very well be his last fight in the promotion. Manuel Torres by Round One KO
Nick: Manuel Torres will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a decent Contender Series win by knockout over Kolton Englund. He was aggressive in that matchup, but his abilities seemed far from refined. He can be dangerous offensively, but he eats a lot of damage in exchanges. Frank Camacho hasn’t fought since he fell as a -300 favorite via KO to Justin Jaynes back in 2020. He seemed to overlook his opponent in that matchup. Jaynes is a low level fighter but he completely overwhelmed Camacho and took him out just 41 seconds into the fight. I don’t want to put too much weight into that performance, but it prevents me from confidently backing Camacho here. I don’t expect this fight to hit the scorecards. I see Camacho throwing the more damaging strikes and Torres’ lack of defense eventually being his downfall. Camacho hasn’t looked great of late, but he has much more experience, he’s more technically refined, and he’s faced off against a much higher level of competition. My confidence level is low in this one, but I prefer the value and experience of the underdog. Frank Camacho by Round Two KO

Katlyn Chookagian -170 vs Amanda Ribas +135

Anthony: This should be an interesting fight at women’s flyweight as Katlyn Chookagian takes on Amanda Ribas. It is just the second time Ribas has fought at 125 pounds as a pro and honestly I do not believe it is the right weight class for her. Listed as being just 5’3 the best matchups for Ribas certainly reside in the strawweight division. Chookagian is a very high-level fighter who is currently on a 6-2 run. The only losses in that span came against Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade. Those may just be the best two flyweights in the world, and Chookagian is a very legitimate number three in my opinion. This is a big step up in competition for Ribas and after seeing her struggle against smaller opponents in the past, I doubt she succeeds here. The striking of Chookagian will pose a lot of issues for Ribas who lacks solid takedown entries. Chookagian is also the much taller of the two and excels while moving backwards. There is no doubt that Ribas is live if able to initiate lengthy grappling exchanges, but I think Chookagian keeps her distance and cruises to a decision victory here. The odds have gotten a bit wide but I find myself leaning the way of the former title challenger. Katlyn Chookagian by Decision
Nick: Ribas is a fan favorite for being an aggressive fighter with outstanding offensive grappling ability. She is a black belt in BJJ, with five of her eleven professional victories coming by way of submission. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s very hittable in exchanges and the strength of her chin is exceptional at best. Chookagian is well-rounded with an effective point-striking style. She doesn’t cause a ton of damage but she fights smart, peppering opponents and letting the fight come to her. She’s most comfortable fighting on her feet. She has outstanding footwork and can put out solid volume and her grappling continues to show improvements as well. Ribas is moving up a weight class here. She has dangerous BJJ once her fights hit the mat, but I have trouble expecting her to get it there. Chookagian should have a considerable striking advantage here. I expect she’ll be too big and strong for Ribas to ground or keep grounded. She should mostly dominate the striking exchanges on her way to a convincing decision. That being said, it also wouldn’t shock me to see her finish a chinny Ribas. Katlyn Chookagian by Decision

Davey Grant -285 vs Louis Smolka +225

Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight fight between Louis Smolka and Davey Grant. I have never been that high on Louis Smolka and now the public perception of him has shifted quite dramatically since his last fight, where he was knocked out for the very first time. He is an orthodox wrestler who has landed some slick submissions over his eight-year UFC tenure. However, his tendency to get clipped in fights is very concerning and after seeing his chin finally cracked, the odds here are easy to justify. Grant is a very hard-hitting bantamweight looking to bounce back from two straight losses. Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez got the better of Grant but he kept things very competitive against both which was impressive to me. Smolka is the type of fighter I think he can run through, and Grant winning with a big left hand feels like the most likely outcome in this matchup. He is bigger and stronger than Smolka and has sufficient grappling to keep this fight upright where I expect him to do his best work. Davey Grant by Round Two KO
Nick: Davey Grant is a well-rounded fighter who manages to outmuscle most of his opponents. His striking is somewhat unconventional, but he carries surprising power. He has a solid wrestling base and does a good job in the ground and pound department if he can take his opponent to the mat. He does a good job moving out of range after throwing combinations and his footwork is solid in spite of his unconventional style. Smolka likes to push the pace and apply pressure when he fights. He’s well-rounded, with eight professional wins via KO and seven via submission. He does a good job mixing in body shots into his striking combinations and he has a knack for capitalizing on the mistakes of his opponents. A major key to this matchup is that Smolka has fought much of his career at 125 pounds. I expect Grant to be the stronger and more powerful fighter and Smolka’s durability is questionable. Davey Grant by Round One KO

Ion Cutelaba -225 vs Ryan Spann +180

Anthony: Tonight’s co-main event is a light heavyweight fight with Ryan Spann taking on Ion Cutelaba. It used to be an issue backing Cutelaba given some questionable Fight IQ, but as of late he has improved quite significantly in his decision making. Cutelaba is a powerful striker who also has a very solid wrestling base. In his past two fights he successfully landed a total of 17 takedowns. While I could see him brawling a bit with Spann on the feet, a path to victory grappling will also be available to him this evening. Spann defends 60 percent of takedowns attempted but he is much lankier than Cutelaba. I think that if able to successfully close the distance Cutelaba will have much more strength than Spann in clinch and grappling exchanges. Spann is also a fighter who throws minimal volume and becomes much less productive as bouts get into the later rounds. It seems like opponents often get the best of him when he is fighting guys that belong in this division’s top fifteen. Cutelaba sits outside of the rankings at current but I see him beating Spann and taking his spot at #13. Spann certainly has a punchers chance as the underdog here, but Cutelaba is in excellent shape and the far more technical of these two. Ion Cutelaba by Round Two KO
Nick: Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. Spann carries a lot of power, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. Like Cutelaba, his cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights. He’s live for a Knockout early here but he doesn’t wear damage well and there are questions surrounding his durability as he’s been KO’d in three of his seven professional losses. It wouldn’t shock me to see Spann score an early upset KO here, but Cutelaba has far more paths to victory. I see him either catching Spann’s chin or mixing in his grappling to control position. Ion Cutelaba by Round Two KO

Aleksandar Rakic -200 vs Jan Blachowicz +160

Anthony: The main event is a very exciting light heavyweight matchup between Aleksandar Rakic and former champion Jan Blachowicz. Glover Teixeira took the belt off Blachowicz last October, but prior to that fight he had won five in a row. This is a crucial fight for him to remain in the title picture at the age of 39. While he is known to mix in his wrestling on occasion, the ‘polish power’ of Blachowicz is his best weapon. He has very heavy hands that helped him accrue numerous knockouts in the UFC. While he can certainly hit harder than Rakic, he does lack the speed and diversity that the Serb possesses on the feet. There is so much good to be said about Rakic as of late winning all but one fight since his debut. He lost by split decision to Volkan Oezdemir in 2019 but in all honesty the judges got that one completely wrong. Since then he has bounced back with victories over Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, two men that have also competed for gold in this division. I do not think he plans to shoot for takedowns in this matchup, instead looking to dictate this fight by striking at range. The smaller cage does not help Rakic given his size and explosivity but I still see him having the ability to win here today. Blachowicz is very dangerous and always a scary man to fade but I think Rakic proves tonight that he is a legitimate contender. I like his chances at a late finish as the damage starts to add up, but if this were to go to decision I believe he shows the judges much more than Jan in terms of volume. Aleksandar Rakic by Round Four KO

Nick: Rakic is a highly technical boxer with ridiculous athleticism and explosiveness. He pushes a really high pace for this division, but he sometimes overextends and gets caught in exchanges. Lately it seems he’s been a bit overcautious as he waits for fights to come to him. Jan Blachowicz is a well-rounded fighter with serious knockout power. The former light heavyweight champion has a solid grappling base, but on the ground he relies on brute strength more than advanced technical ability. Blachowicz’ chin has held up well of late and it seems he’s as good as he’s ever been. He has a powerful high kick which he used to brutalize Dominick Reyes when capturing the title and he can end a fight with any of his limbs. He can sometimes be a slow starter, and there’s no denying he looked terrible his last time out against Glover Teixeira, but he has a considerable experience advantage which makes this a very difficult fight to call. I’ve gone back and forth on this pick and this is certainly a fight I could see going either way. However, this feels like a changing of the guard. Rakic is going to be the bigger, stronger and more athletic fighter here. He’s never been finished and it’s also notable that Blachowicz had to pull out when this fight was initially scheduled. I don’t want to overinvest in Rakic but he is my pick. He seems more well-rounded at this point in his career. Aleksandar Rakic by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: MMAnytt. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.