Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/13) MLB slate. The weather is finally warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 1-1 last time out, so we sit at a shaky 7-12 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things haven’t been quite as bad as they seem. We have a loaded Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (7-12)
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, run line (-1.5), (+105)
Gerrit Cole is in quality form as he’s carrying a 29.8% K Rate and a 3.72 xFIP into this start. He’s allowing only 27% Hard Contact Rate and boasting a very impressive 15.1% Swinging Strike Rate on the season. The White Sox projected lineup comes into this game with a terrible .098 iSO against RHP this season. Cole is coming off three consecutive Quality Starts and he’s in line for another solid performance here.
The Yankees offense has been a bit inconsistent, but there is no denying their power against right-handed pitching. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton all have ISOs north of .215 against RHP, which makes this one of the tougher lineups to navigate. The White Sox have Vince Velasquez listed as the starter here, who comes into this start with a terrible 5.61xFIP on the season. Additionally, the Yankees have the best bullpen ERA in the AL as well as the most victories. Given the White Sox early struggles in 2022, I’m loving the value on the road team run line here. I expect the Yankees can cover the -1.5 at an excellent price of +105.
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Angels Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
The Los Angeles Angels have one of the best offenses in baseball. They come into this match-up with the second most HRs in the MLB (18) as well as the most runs scored in the American League (60). They’ve scored 10+ runs in two of their last three games and they’re 2nd in the MLB with a .178 Team ISO.
Daulton Jefferies hasn’t been bad for the Athletics, but he’s certainly not an arm to fear. He comes into this match-up having allowed 4+ ER in each of his last three outings. The RingCentral Coliseum isn’t exactly hitter friendly, but I’m happy to take the Angels team total over 4.5 here at an excellent +100 price.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
This bet is an example of playing recent trends. The Diamondbacks have the 3rd most HRs in all of baseball so far in May with 15. Their lineup has seen a spark with the promotion of Alek Thomas earlier in the week, and they have the 4th best OPS (.766) in the MLB so far this month. Drew Smyly is due for considerable regression here as his ERA (3.04) is more than two runs lower than his xFIP (5.07). It’s also notable the Cubs’ bullpen has allowed the 4th most HRs in all of baseball (17).
While I’m certainly not crazy about this D’Backs offense overall, they are hot right now and in an extremely favorable spot. I really like the +100 price on their team total of over 4.5 Runs here. I expect they tag Smyly early and if they don’t the bullpen provides continued upside.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS