Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/5) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Progress! We went 2 for 3 once again to improve to a shaky 6-9. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, it’s starting to feel like momentum is back on our side. We have a loaded Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (6-9)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 (-110)
This is going to be a bullpen game for the Reds, who happen to have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.07. This Pirates offense really hasn’t found much success in 2022, but they have scored 18 total runs over their last four games played.
This Reds offense is far from dangerous, but in this match-up with JT Brubaker they should actually have a decent chance to put up some decent numbers. Brubaker is carrying a spotty 5.30 xFIP, allowing 43% Hard Contact and a 43% Fly Ball Rate. The Reds have seen their game total hit the over in eight of their last nine games played. At 8.5, I’m happy to back the over on this game total given these recent trends. Neither offense is inspiring here, but they do have some momentum and the pitchers here are well below league average.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Astros Team Total, Over 4.5 (-110)
Beau Briske’s AAA numbers weren’t all that impressive, but he’s done a decent job so far in the MLB. His underlying metrics suggest that his success has mostly been luck, as he’s carrying a 3.60 ERA but a 6.36 xFIP.
This Astros offense isn’t nearly as dangerous as it was in seasons’ past, but they’re still a tough match-up for right-handed pitchers. Hitters like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker all have tremendous power against righties.
Kriske is carrying a .111 BABIP, so regression seems like it’s just around the corner. Detroit’s bullpen has been surprisingly decent, but regression seems likely on the way there as well. It’s still cold at most parks across the league, but the Astros play inside so that shouldn’t be a factor here. I like the value on the over 4.5 team total, near even money at -110.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 EST
Nick’s Pick: Angels Team Total, Over 4.5 (-130)
Joan Adon has not been good for the Nationals. He comes into this start with a 5.92 xFIP, allowing a shaky 45% Hard Contact Rate. He’s allowed 4+ ER in four of his first five outings this season. This Angels offense has gone a bit cold this week, but they’re still statistically one of the best in all of baseball. Their projected starting lineup has a near .200 ISO against RHP. They’re relatively patient, they hit a lot of fly balls, so it’s safe to expect they can knock a few out here.
The Angels have the 3rd best OPS in the MLB at .737. They are also third in the MLB for HRs with 34 (as of Thursday evening). There’s no denying the scoring is down across the MLB, but I expect we see the Angels hang a crooked number here. Adon has been terrible and the bullpen behind him is less than mediocre (4.06 ERA). I’m really liking the value here at (-130) over 4.5 Runs.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS