The Green Bay Packers have had one of the best offenses in the NFL the last few years, but after losing Davante Adams this offseason and failing to properly replace him, the Packers offense could noticeably regress in 2022, hampering their chances of making it to the Super Bowl.
The offseason brought uncertainty and drama for Green Bay. As soon as they were eliminated from the 2021 playoffs, the Packers front office had to deal with the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers’ future. Rodgers’ contract was set up for him to leave at the end of the 2021 season, unless he and the Packers could find common ground on a potential new deal.
Rodgers was linked with the likes of the Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, and Tennessee Titans in the early stages of the offseason but, prior to the start of free agency, all signs pointed towards home for the reigning league MVP. The 38 year old signed a three-year, $150 million extension with the Packers, ending speculation that he could don a new uniform in 2022. While the return of their franchise QB was significant, the Packers offense still lost a key ingredient to their success.
Adams had been, arguably, the best receiver in the NFL over the last four seasons – during which time he caught 432 passes for 5310 yards and 47 receiving touchdowns. It’s hard to argue with the numbers.
The Adams and Rodgers connection propelled the Packers offense, sustaining their status as one of the elite units in the league. Between 2016 and 2021, only the Kansas City Chiefs had a better EPA/play than the Packers. But the last two seasons – notably Rodgers’ two MVP seasons – the Packers have had the best EPA in the league, per RBSDM.
Beyond the dynamic duo of Rodgers/Adams however, the rest of the passing attack had problems. So when Adams was traded to the Raiders at the start of free agency, the Packers suddenly had a huge star-shaped hole in their offense.
Left on the roster was Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers, plus a few more depth pieces. For a team well and truly in the hunt for a Super Bowl, it simply wasn’t good enough. If the last three Super Bowl’s have taught us anything, it’s that elite wide receivers are integral to on field success. The NFL is a passing league and though much of the burden is placed on the quarterback, wide receivers have proven their invaluable worth over the last few years.
Clearly, the Packers knew that. During an appearance on ‘The Pat McAfee Show’, NFL insider Ian Rapoport reported that the Packers actually offered Adams more money than the Raiders did. This wasn’t about the contract though, evidently Adams just wanted to move on. He got his wish, but it left the Packers scrambling and, as a result, the offense could look drastically different in 2022.
The Packers made moves to strengthen their wide receiving corps in the offseason, first signing veteran receiver Sammy Watkins to a one-year, $1.85 million deal. Watkins, a former top-5 pick, is a solid addition but after just 27 catches in 2021 has to prove that he can stay healthy and remain productive. The deal is a no-lose scenario in terms of how much the Packers are paying, but it’s difficult to be too optimistic.
General manager, Brian Gutenkunst, elected not to draft a receiver with their two first round picks, instead trading up in the second-round to draft NDSU receiver, Christian Watson.
Unlike Watkins, it’s easy to get excited about Watson. He had a Relative Athletic Score of 9.96, legitimate 4.36 speed and exceptional size for the position. But, as a receiver who is ready to step into a big role with a Super Bowl contending team, Watson is still raw and very much a project receiver. He still has plenty to improve upon as a route-runner and has had significant drop issues during his college career.
Watson could feasibly make strides under the tutelage of Rodgers, but there’ll inevitably be growing pains. Beyond him, the Packers also drafted Romeo Doubs in the fourth round. Doubs can make an impact as a rotational receiver, but asking him to carry a heavy workload in his rookie year is a tall task.
Historically, Rodgers usually takes time to feel out new receivers. The trust isn’t always there initially, which is partly why Adams was targeted so much over the last few years. He was Rodgers’ safety net not only because he was obviously an incredible receiver, but also because the Packers depth at the position was suspect at best.
Without Adams, Cobb becomes the de facto safety net. But he’s now 32 years old and likely in decline. The Packers might trust Allen Lazard to take a considerable leap forward – he’s currently projected to be their X receiver and caught 8 touchdown passes in 2021, but he also hasn’t shown enough to be a true number one receiver.
The receiver position leaves a lot of question marks for the Packers. Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP and, even at 38-years-old, is operating at a level most quarterbacks can only dream of. He has the ability to elevate receivers, but the hole left by Adams is tough to overcome.
Adams had the sixth-most third down conversions among receivers, and the second-most catches for first downs in the 2021 season. His 11 receiving touchdowns predictably led the team, and he had the third-most red zone targets in the NFL.
How do you replace that sort of production? Well, you don’t, at least not with a single player. The Packers will be fine so long as Rodgers remains under center. But without Adams lined up at receiver, the offense could noticeably regress in 2022 as they look for ways to replace his production by committee.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.