Just over a year ago, the Detroit Lions pulled the plug on the Matthew Stafford era. The Lions traded Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for two 1st round picks, a 2021 third, and Jared Goff.
It’s only been a year, but the contrast in directions the two franchises headed in is stark. The Rams went on to win the Super Bowl, while the Lions finished with a 3-13-1 record, securing the 2nd overall pick for the 2022 Draft. One year later, the Lions will have the chance to draft their quarterback of the future: but is it too soon?
When the Lions traded away Stafford, it wasn’t just draft compensation they received. They also got embattled starter Jared Goff in the trade. The Rams were desperate to shed Goff’s four-year, $134 million and essentially offered the Lions a second 1st round pick (in 2022) to take on the contract. The Lions had the cap space and had no need to spend it in order to contend, so they acquiesced.
Detroit had also just hired new head coach Dan Campbell, who had an affinity for biting kneecaps. They were in full rebuild mode, searching for an identity and evaluating the current players on the roster. They wanted to know who fit Campbell’s tenacious style and who could be a building block for the future. No rush, little expectation. The end goal for Detroit, as it is with every team in the NFL, would be to find their future franchise QB.
With Goff feasibly on the hook, at least, until the end of the 2022 season, the Lions had the chance to get him in the building and figure out whether or not he’ll be a viable option moving forward.
Realistically, the Lions will likely look elsewhere for a long-term answer at quarterback. Goff wasn’t terrible in 2021, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 3245 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions but finished 29th out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA. His arm is good, but not great, he’s not gifted athletically and he struggles to make plays outside of a structured offense.
Goff is a sensible choice for the Lions in the short-term as they look to bridge the gap between the Stafford era and their next true QB1. The question is when, not if, they’ll replace him.
The 2022 draft class isn’t the strongest year for quarterbacks. There’s no out-and-out runaway prospect in the shape of Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow, and it’s unlikely fans see multiple quarterbacks picked inside the top 10. But a need is a need and sometimes teams will take a risk.
Amongst the players who could hear their names called early, there’s Malik Willis from Liberty. The dynamic, cannon-armed quarterback is supremely talented and has the highest upside in the class, but he’s incredibly rough around the edges. An inconsistent base and a high sack rate plague him, among other things.
Kenny Pickett is another name to watch. The Pittsburgh quarterback has an immense feel for the game. Everything he does appears to be translatable to the NFL, but the question is can he turn his “on paper” attributes into a weekly reality at the pro level? Pickett came out of nowhere in 2021, which means long-term projections are tough.
The problem with picking either quarterback is where they would be picked. The Lions currently own the 2nd overall pick and the 32nd overall pick. Picking either quarterback with the 2nd pick feels like a massive reach, especially with the amount of talent available that could help the Lions defensive needs.
Passing on the chance to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson or Travon Walker seems a little counterintuitive, but drafting quarterback above his projected draft position is a calculated risk. The range of outcomes does however seem a little more chaotic than previous years.
By the time the Lions pick again at 32, both Willis and Pickett will, likely, be off the board. If that’s the case, the next batch of quarterbacks available are Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. All three have upside, and Ridder is the most NFL-ready quarterback in the class thanks to his quick processing and decision-making, though he too could be off the board by then as well.
Of course, the Lions could elect to forgo a quarterback at 32 and nab another top talent before drafting again two picks later at 34. That makes sense if the Lions are concerned about the Jaguars at 33, but not if they have serious intentions of drafting a quarterback in 2022. Picking Howell, Corral, or Ridder at the end of the first round would mean they have a potential fifth-year contract option. That’s another year to keep their potential franchise quarterback in the building and on a rookie contract to boot.
Unless Willis or Pickett fall to 32, or a position where they feel comfortable trading up to, the Lions shouldn’t pull the trigger on a quarterback in 2022. The offense finished 24th in EPA/play in 2021 and the advanced stats are trending in the right direction, even with Goff under centre. They have a young and powerful offensive line, a potential number one receiver in Amon-Ra St-Brown and other complimentary weapons.
But they’re still likely to be in the conversation for a top 5 pick in 2023. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s highly likely. The Lions defense needs a complete overhaul before they’ll be truly competitive, and of course, they’ll need to address the situation at quarterback. It’s more likely that they can do that in the 2023 NFL Draft – a draft class that features C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Spencer Rattler. A decidedly better class than this year.
Stroud and Young would, without a doubt, be the top prospects in this year’s draft, and the Lions will still have a chance to snag one next year. Sometimes, the opportunity to take a risk and draft a quarterback can be too much for a team to pass up on – and sometimes the gamble pays off, but the Lions are in a position where they can be patient.
Wait a year, stick with Goff, and then make your move. Things are slowly coming together for the Lions – there’s no need to rush the process.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine