Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (4/20) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust from last season. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
What can I say?! This article feels cursed at the moment, as we’ve started out a terrible 0-6. I could blame the fact that it’s only April following a short Spring Training. I could blame variance, bad luck, or tout that we were close on a lot of these picks. I could emphasize the fact that I’m only writing these two days a week and betting every day. I won’t though! Instead, let’s just keep our heads down, stick to the process, and turn this thing around.
If you’d rather bet against my picks than tail them, go for it! I’m not easily offended. I back all of my picks up with detailed research and put my own money on them. I’m confident in my process as it’s helped me profit consistently for years, but I can’t deny how truly ugly this start has been. All that being said, let’s get back at it. We have a solid Wednesday slate with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (0-6)
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, RL (-1.5) EVEN
This Yankees offense has been relatively quiet, but they really haven’t had many chances against LHP yet this season. Their projected starting lineup carries a solid .217 ISO against LHP since the start of 2021. Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty, will be taking the mound for the Tigers here. He’s been struggling of late, carrying a 6.68 xFIP and a worse than 42% Hard Contact across his first two starts. The Yankees chased Tyler Alexander after only 1 IP last night, so the Detroit bullpen is taxed. If there was ever a spot for this offense to get right, this certainly feels like this could be it.
Luis Severino will be taking the mound for the Yankees here. He threw 83 pitches his last time out, in an outstanding start against a potent Blue Jays offense. He’s maintained an impressive 31% K Rate across his first two starts, as well as an eye popping 3.55 xFIP and a better than 52% ground ball rate. The -170 moneyline feels a bit inflated, but there certainly seems to be some value on the EVEN money RL. I expected the Yankees offense can shake off some of their rust off here against the LHP. This Tigers lineup hasn’t shown much power against RHP, so I expect New York to cover this 1.5 spread.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs, -110
Nick Pivetta has been struggling, there’s no other way to put it. He comes into this start carrying a terrible 6.31 xFIP across his first two starts, allowing 3 HRs across just 7.2 IP. Usually a strikeout pitcher, we’ve seen Pivetta only generate a 9.6% swinging strike rate to his first 35 batters faced.
The Blue Jays bats have been oddly quiet, but they’re still 3rd in all of baseball with 15 HRs (as of Tuesday night). All 15 of those HRs have come against RHP (like Pivetta) and they should benefit as an offense hitting in the HR friendly Fenway Park. Given the reasonable price of -110 on 4.5 runs, I’m happy to back the Blue Jays offense here. I could also see backing Toronto on the money line, but the team total feels safer given the recent volatility of Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starting pitcher.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s PIck: Minnesota Twins, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -110
Once a highly touted prospect, Daniel Lynch has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since he was promoted to the MLB last season. He carries a terrible 5.72 xFIP since the start of 2021, allowing an ugly .222 ISO to RHH. He got absolutely shelled in his 2022 debut, allowing 6 ER including 3 HRs to the St. Louis Cardinals.
This Twins lineup is historically much better against LHP. They’re 3rd in the MLB with 6 HRs against LHP so far this season and batters like Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Miguel Sano all carry .200+ ISOs vs. lefties. Additionally, the Royals bullpen has the 5th worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 4.70 (heading into Tuesday night). This lineup certainly isn’t as strong as it was last season, but they’re still going to be a pain for southpaws. Lynch carries some K upside, but that really isn’t enough to limit the damage here against this righty heavy attack. At -110, the over 4.5 team total for the Twins here feels like an excellent play.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS