We’re officially two weeks into the 2022 MLB season, and mercifully bullpen hierarchies are starting to take shape.
After a rocky start to the year where there were more questions than answers when it came to the 9th inning, the closer landscape has begun to settle. Admittedly there remain some teams who have yet to fully hash out their pecking order, while others seem to be purposefully complicating things for fantasy managers (Tampa we’re looking at you…).
Regardless, this is likely your last chance to grab some of these names off the waiver wire before they fully settle into their roles. It could also be the perfect opportunity to nab an heir apparent for late inning duties before they officially grab the title.
Here’s where things stand across the league when it comes to late inning hurlers through the first 14 days of the year.
Locked In
-Aroldis Chapman, NYY (5.1IP, 0W, 3SV, 7Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)
-Craig Kimbrel, LAD (3.0IP, 0W, 3SV, 3Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP)
-Liam Hendriks, CHW (5.0IP, 0W, 4SV, 9Ks, 5.40 ERA, 2.40 WHIP)
-Josh Hader, MIL (6.0IP, 0W, 6SV, 9Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP)
-Kenley Jansen, ATL (5.0IP, 0W, 3SV, 6Ks, 5.40 ERA, 0.80 WHIP)
-Raisel Iglesias, LAA (5.0IP, 1W, 2SV, 5Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.40 WHIP)
-Edwin Diaz, NYM (5.0IP, 0W, 1SV, 8Ks, 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
-Taylor Rogers, SD (5.0IP, 0W, 5SV, 5Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP)
A couple of new names join the upper echelon of closers this week. Taylor Rogers has been virtually flawless since joining the Padres. Meanwhile his counterpart Chris Paddack has started off 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in Minnesota, making the Padres front office look like geniuses in the early going.
San Diego can be viewed as the polar opposite of Tampa Bay in the sense that they like to have a clearly defined closer each year. Melancon, Yates, and Hand have all seen inflated saves totals during their time with the Padres, and Rogers appears to be the beneficiary of this trend for 2022.
Iglesias also jumps up a rung as it’s now clear that rumours that Joe Maddon might get “creative” with late inning situations were based more on speculation than substance. While he doesn’t have the same velocity he did in Cincinnati, Iglesias has a significant lead on Tepera and Loup for late game duties.
And while the saves haven’t been there, fantasy owners will certainly take the production from Diaz in New York. The 28 year old righty has turned in 3 consecutive scoreless outings. Unfortunately all 3 were non-save situations for the MLB leading 10-4 Mets. Through 14 games only Diaz and Trevor May have managed to record a save thus far. The saves will come, especially if the Mets keep playing at a high level beyond the spring.
Their Job to Lose
-Ryan Pressly, HOU (3.1IP, 0W, 3SV, 2Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
-Jordan Romano, TOR (6.0IP, 0W, 6SV, 6Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP)
-Mark Melancon, ARI (4.0IP, 0W, 1SV, 2Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
-Gregory Soto, DET (5.2IP, 1W, 3SV, 3Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
-Emmanuel Clase, CLE (4.0IP, 0W, 2SV, 3Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
-Giovanny Gallegos, STL (5.1IP, 0W, 3SV, 5Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP)
Jordan Romero is flirting with entering the upper echelons of the fantasy closer ranks. While he’s been wildly impressive to start the year, he’s only got 31 career saves to his name, so we’ll hold off another week before letting him into the circle of trust.
Ryan Pressly is another arm who has a case to be amongst the locked in crew. However velocity concerns, and a right knee injury which landed him on the IL keeps him where he is for the time being. Astros GM James Click says he expects Pressly back “very, very soon” which is good news for fantasy owners. It’s unlikely Stanek, Neris, or Maton eat into his save opportunities when he comes back, but let’s see how he fares the first couple times out before rushing to conclusions.
Last season’s saves leader finds himself in a drastically different environment in 2022. Melancon is the unquestioned closer in the desert, unfortunately the Diamondbacks have only provided him with one save opportunity thus far on the year.
Meanwhile Gregory Soto is off to a strong start in the Motor City. There were some questions around how the Tigers would utilize their bullpen heading into the season. Michael Fulmer, who racked up 14 saves in 2021, has fared well in the early going with 1W, 1SV, and a 0.00ERA through 5.2IP, but based on how A.J. Hinch has been deploying the two in the early going, the job is clearly Soto’s until he falters.
Giovanny Gallegos has likewise answered any doubters by posting a sparkling 0.00 ERA and converting all his save opportunities in St. Louis. With former closer Jordan Hicks actually scheduled to start Thursday night vs. the Marlins, there’s one less arm in the bullpen for Gallegos to contend with. Cabrera and Helsley are decent options but Gallegos has given the Cards no reason to doubt his ability to handle the role thus far.
And finally Emmanuel Clase gets bumped up a few rungs as well. Any doubts as to whether he would factor into the teams long term plans were erased a few days back when the 24 year old inked a contract extension that could be worth up to $38M over the next 7 years. Cleveland began the season with zero opportunities for any reliever to earn a save, before Clase earned two in consecutive days against the White Sox.
We Want to Trust You
-David Robertson, CHC (5.0IP, 0W, 4SV, 4Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP)
-Daniel Bard, COL (6IP, 1W, 5SV, 7Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP)
-Tanner Rainey, WAS (4IP, 0W, 3SV, 4Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
-Corey Knebel, PHI (5.0IP, 0W, 2SV, 5Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP)
So far Knebel has been outstanding for the Phillies this season. In his last outing, he sat down the heart of the Rockies lineup at Coors Field without issue. He’s definitely the guy to own in Philadelphia. The issue, as it has been for most of his career, is durability.
The 30 year old has managed to get into only 47 games since 2018, and has already hit the COVID-19 IL with “flu like symptoms” this year. You could do far worse than have Knebel on your fantasy squad, just make sure to handcuff him to Brad Hand in case he hits the IL again at some point this year.
Tanner Rainey has been a pleasant surprise for Washington. Considering he ended 2021 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through 38 games, more than a few eyebrows were raised when the Nationals handed him the ball in the ninth inning over last year’s closer Kyle Finnegan. But Rainey has rewarded Dave Martinez by pitching 4 shutout innings to start the season. We’ll let him notch a few more saves before bumping him up a rung, but he seems to be the preferred late game option in DC at the moment.
Meanwhile some Rockies fans might be grumbling that Daniel Bard isn’t getting any love here, and that’s a fair argument. He’s the 35th ranked player in Yahoo leagues, and is second in MLB saves at the moment with 5. But there’s legitimate questions as to how sustainable his numbers are. As it stands, the soon to be 37 year old is in line to have his second best season ever, and flirt with the totals he put up in Boston back in 2010.
The MLB season is a long one, and at some point the Coors Field factor is going to rear its ugly head. Yes he posted 20 saves in 2021, but he did so with an inflated 5.21 ERA, 1.60 WHIP while batters were teeing off on him to the tune of a .265 average. Colome and Estevez aren’t likely to challenge him for saves any time soon, but there’s a decent chance your window to trade Bard at peak value this season may be right now.
Speaking of late career renaissances, David Robertson is turning in a vintage performance for the Cubs in the early goings this season. The veteran righty has issued only 2 free passes and 1 hit through 5IP for a perfect 0.00 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. Batters are hitting only .063 off him at the moment, and he’s rung up at least one batter in all but one appearance.
There were rumblings that Chicago may try out Givens or Wick in a committee with Robertson in the early part of the year. But the wily vet ended that conversation in a hurry with his sterling play in April.
Coinflips
-Andrew Kittredge, TB (6.0IP, 1W, 2SV, 8Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP)
-Lou Trivino, OAK (3.2IP, 0W, 2SV, 5Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)
-Camilo Doval, SF (6.1IP, 0W, 2SV, 7Ks, 4.26 ERA, 1.58 WHIP)
-David Bednar, PIT (4.2IP, 0W, 1SV, 4Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
To be clear, Andrew Kittredge is definitely the arm you want to own in Tampa Bay. That being said, owning any Rays reliever isn’t for the faint of heart. Kittredge has all the stuff you’d want out of a closer, but Tampa marches to the beat of their own drum when it comes to late inning duties. Whether he actually gets called upon in the 9th inning is a 50/50 proposition at best.
Trivino notched two saves before being placed on the COVID list for Oakland. He’s allowed baserunners in each outing thus far so he certainly hasn’t slammed many doors shut in the 9th. But his last trip to the mound saw him strikeout 3 batters against a loaded Blue Jays lineup, so there’s hope that he’s turning things around after a condensed spring training.
In San Francisco, Doval has begun to carve out a nice late inning role for himself. The 25 year old Dominican has electric stuff, and has notched two saves thus far in 2022. However, similar to Trivino, he’s yet to pitch a clean inning, allowing at least one baserunner in each outing. Jake McGee has also recorded two saves, but the better long term bet here is Doval. If he’s able to cut down on the walks, he’s issued 4 free passes in 2022 already, then he could become “the guy” in the Bay Area in a hurry.
And finally there’s David Bednar. He’s pitched well so far in limited action, but he just won’t get many save opportunities with the Pirates. Wil Crowe has also pitched well to start the season, sporting a 0.00 ERA & a 0.72 WHIP, and has recorded the only other save for the Bucs. Grab saves where you can get them, but don’t break the bank to try to go out and trade for Bednar anytime soon.
Committees
Lopez/Tate/Baker, BAL
Diekman/Whitlock/Robles/Barnes, BOS
Staumont/Garrett/Barlow, KC
Pagan/Duffey/Duran, MIN
Castillo/Steckenrider/Munoz, SEA
Barlow/Bush/Patton, TEX
Santillan/Strickland/Warren, CIN
Bender/Sulser, Bass, MIA
Some of these committees are truly dart throws on any given night. Bender attempted to establish himself in Miami, but was then promptly roughed up his next outing against St. Louis. Boston now somehow has 4 relievers in the mix for saves. Barnes has been shaky at best to start the year, but Alex Cora told reporters this week he wants the 32 year old righty to reclaim the closer role at some point this year.
Then there’s situations like Baltimore, Texas, and Cincinnati where you have to ask yourself whether it’s even worth dipping your toe into those murky waters. With inflated ERA’s across the board, and limited save opportunities to begin with, you may actually be doing more harm than good to your fantasy squad by rolling the dice with any of them.
Steckenrider tried to cement himself as the closer in Seattle, and has pitched well through the first 5 innings of 2022. However the Mariners seem to want to use him as their set up man, limiting his fantasy potential for the time being. If there was going to be a stash and hold option in the Pacific NorthWest though, it would likely be him.
There’s an argument to be made that Josh Staumont could emerge as the preferred closing option in Kansas City. However he and Scott Barlow have alternated Holds & Saves their last two outings, making each of them potentially matchup dependent for the time being. The 6’3” righty currently sports an 8:3 K/BB ratio, with batters hitting only .182 off him through 6IP, and seems to have earned Mike Matheny’s trust for now.
And last but not least Emilio Pagan earned his first save of the year in the Twins 1-0 win over KC on Thursday. Jhoan Duran is likely the better long term play here as his arsenal just screams “closer” compared to the other options in the Minnesota bullpen. However Pagan may have some early season value as the rookie gets his MLB legs under him. Duran currently has 11Ks through 6 innings, but has already given up 2HRs on the year, with batters hitting .250 off the 6’5” right hander in the early going.
Expect Duran to assume the closer role at some point, but Pagan could pick up some cheap saves in the interim while he keeps the seat warm for the talented 24 year old.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner