For the four remaining teams in the postseason; the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers, nothing but their best will do on Championship Sunday. While the Chiefs are looking to advance to the Super Bowl for the third year in a row, the 49ers and Rams are hoping to head back to the big dance after a few years of watching the big game from home. And, of course, the Bengals won’t lay down quietly either. Joe Burrow and co. have exceeded all expectations this year and a fairy tale trip to the Super Bowl is within reach.
Football, like every sport, is incredibly nuanced. So much passes by in the blink of an eye that will never be feasibly picked up in the moment – its intricacies, micro details, and subtleties methodically tilt the game like tectonic plates without the viewer ever really noticing. Each team will have a specific game plan on Sunday, and executing said plan is usually the difference between a date with destiny on February 13th or a disappointing flight home.
So, what does each team need to do to ensure victory in the NFL Championship Round?
Kansas City Chiefs: Limit Ja’Marr Chase’s production
Realistically, you can’t stop Chase completely. You can only hope to contain him. The first-round rookie has been a dynamic playmaker for the Bengals in Year 1, amassing 81 receptions, 1,453 receiving yards, and 13 touchdown catches. It was, by all accounts, the greatest season by a rookie wide receiver in NFL history.
Early on, the Bengals primarily used Chase as their pure ‘X’ receiver – on the line of scrimmage and flexed out wide – before they started moving him around the field and utilizing his unique skillset. Whether it was in the slot, as a decoy in motion, or taking handoffs on jet sweeps, the Bengals realized that good things happen when Burrow got the ball into Chase’s hands.
Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, has to find a way to make life difficult for Chase. Whether that be pressing him at the line of scrimmage, or showing him a lot of cloud coverage – rolling the coverage to his side of the field to provide extra support, the Chiefs will surely be game-planning to slow Chase down. If they can do that, then their chances of winning are heavily increased.
Cincinnati Bengals: Give Joe Burrow enough time in the pocket
It’s proven to be a futile exercise throughout the first two years of Joe Burrow’s career, but the Bengals have to find a way to protect their franchise quarterback. Burrow was pressured 15 total times and sacked 9 times against a very good Tennessee Titans defensive line in the Divisional Round.
Burrow didn’t have too much trouble moving the ball downfield, completing 75 percent of his passes for 348 yards and an interception, but the Titans had him running for his life for most of the afternoon. The former first overall pick has, generally, been one of the better quarterbacks when pressured this season – his 61.6 passing grade when pressured is the fifth-best in the NFL in 2021, per PFF.
However, it didn’t show against the Titans. Burrow completed 3-of-6 passing attempts for just 15 yards when pressured last week, with an average depth of target of just 1.5 yards. The Bengals’ offensive line is coming up against one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL this week in Chris Jones. They’ve got to find a way to protect Burrow better, whether that means playing with a sixth offensive lineman for large portions of the game, or just doubling Jones and chipping the likes of Melvin Ingram and Frank Clark off the edge, the Bengals have to commit to protecting Burrow. They’ve struggled to do it all season and it could catch up with them on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams: Pick on the 49ers’ cornerbacks
Not that it will come as a surprise to anyone, but Cooper Kupp could be in for a huge game against the 49ers. In his two regular-season games against San Francisco, Kupp had a total of 18 catches for 240 yards and one touchdown. Light work for the NFL’s triple crown winner in 2021.
As always, Kupp will be the centerpiece of the Rams offensive gameplan, but Sean McVay should look to be targeting cornerbacks Josh Norman and Ambry Thomas as often as possible. Thomas, a third round rookie out of Michigan, has slowly come to grips with the pace of the NFL, but is still allowing the second-most yards per reception in the league, behind only Trevon Diggs, per PFF.
Despite getting occasionally burnt, Thomas has provided a more consistent presence than his veteran teammate, Josh Norman. Consistency has been a real issue for Norman the last few years, so much so that his role with the 49ers has been limited in the postseason.
If Norman is on the field, the Rams have to target him. It’s a great matchup on paper for the Los Angeles wide receivers, and you can be sure that McVay will take advantage of it.
San Francisco 49ers: Win the battle in the trenches
It’s often an overused expression, but the game can be won and lost in the trenches, and ultimately, it just might be this weekend.
If we’re being honest, the game isn’t going to be won with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing the ball 30-40 times against the Rams. The 49ers are 2-3 this season in games where Garoppolo throws the ball more than 30 times – it’s not how this offense is built. The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak perfectly explains how the 49ers’ (and Rams) offense functions and how they’ve evolved, respectively, over the last five years. One of the key points is that so much of what the 49ers do starts up front with the offensive line and how they run the football.
It helps, then, that they have the best offensive lineman in the NFL in Trent Williams and a great supporting cast up front. It matters even more because the Rams have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL – a unit that also features one of the league’s generational talents in Aaron Donald. If the 49ers want to gain an edge, they’ve got to set the tone early and run plays that can get the offense rolling and winning up front. Let Williams get out into the open field and take souls, that usually works.
The same rules apply for the defensive line too. The 49ers’ front has been devastating so far in the postseason and they’re coming up against a solid Rams offensive line so continuing that momentum is key. Rams quarterback Matt Stafford has worked from a relatively clean pocket this season, only facing pressure on 26.8 percent of his dropbacks – the fourth-lowest percentage in the NFL. The 49ers are fifth in pass-rush win rate as a team and if they can trouble the Rams offensive line and get to Stafford – who has thrown 7 interceptions this season when pressured, tied for third-most in the NFL – then they’ll have a shot to dictate the flow of the game.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine