Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (7/29) MLB slate. We’re approaching the trade deadline, the weather is still heating up, and there’s a lot of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 32-31 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (32-31)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, -1.5 Run Line (EVEN)
Brandon Woodruff comes into this start with a solid 3.76 xFIP and an excellent 30.6% K Rate in 2022. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .150 ISO this season. He’s posted an excellent 2.28 ERA in the month of July and he’s posted a Quality Start in three of his four July appearances. The Red Sox offense has been struggling of late, mostly because Rafael Devers is on the IL. Their projected starting lineup has just a .121 ISO against RHP in 2022.
Brayan Bello is a talented prospect, but he’s still very early in his development. He’s allowed 4+ ER in all three of his starts since he was promoted. He’s carrying an ugly 5.22 xFIP, allowing a worse than .425 wOBA to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. The Brewers projected starting lineup has an excellent .200 ISO against RHP this season. They’ve scored 7+ runs in four of their last five games played, and I expect them to continue to find success in this spot. The money line does feel a bit inflated here, but I’ll happily take the EVEN money value on the Brewers to cover the -1.5 Run Line.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
Madison Bumgarner comes into this start with a shaky 5.37 xFIP. He’s allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four road starts and he’s allowing a spotty 44.6% hard contact rate. This Braves offense has the 2nd most HRs in baseball in July. They have the best SLG percentage in the NL this season with a .441 and their projected starting lineup boasts five batters with a better than .190 ISO against LHP in 2022.
The Diamondbacks bullpen ranks 24th in baseball with a mediocre 4.24 ERA. Whether they score more against Bumgarner or the bullpen behind him, I like the Braves to hit the Over on their 4.5 Run team total here at a reasonable price of -145.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-130)
Chad Kuhl comes into this start carrying an ugly 5.61 xFIP, allowing a .218 ISO to LHH. The Dodgers projected starting lineup features six left-handed bats, so Kuhl is very likely to struggle in this match-up. The Dodgers have the second most Runs scored in baseball this season, the second most Runs scored in July, and their .184 team ISO ranks fourth in the MLB.
Their HR upside will be boosted here hitting in the thin air of Coors Field, and they’ve scored 7+ Runs in six of their last ten games played. Their 6.5 Run team total may feel a bit inflated here, but I’ll happily back the over at a price of -130.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS