UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan II – Full Card Analysis

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan II – 12.6.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2. This is the final ESPN pay-per-view as we close the year with two title fights in Las Vegas. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 312-178-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 312-178-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-5-2025 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Mairon Santos -250 vs Muhammad Naimov +200

• Anthony: This event begins with the fight between Mairon Santos and Muhammad Naimov. Santos was heavy on Friday, more than one pound over the featherweight limit. This is not the first occasion that Santos has struggled to make the weight. He does seem to drain himself quite a bit trying to still fit into this weight class. The Ultimate Fighter winner has a bright future ahead, he just needs to either move up weight or get his fight camps under control. Santos has elite striking and a great feel for moving throughout the cage. He is poised when exchanging with opponents in the pocket and utilizing clinch positions when he does get hurt. I really like his ability to move into and out of range safely. Naimov will likely be trying to takedown Santos although that will be a tough task. Naimov is gritty, representing Tajikistan and training at elevation in Denver, Colorado. He will attempt to set a pace here early that Santos will struggle to keep. Given the weight miss, I certainly could see Naimov taking over if this fight gets into round three. Santos is the much better technical striker and great when it comes to landing his counters. He only on average absorbs 2.38 significant strikes per minute. Striking offense and striking defense will be what decides this bout. Mairon Santos by Decision
• Nick: Muhammad Naimov is well rounded with five of his thirteen professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He is an explosive striker offensively, but he sometimes chases big shots. This can leave him open to be countered or taken down by superior grapplers. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and he’s more than willing to mix in his own offensive grappling in match-ups like this one. Mairon Santos secured a UFC contract when he defeated Kaan Ofli to win The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament final at featherweight. He has since edged out a controversial decision over a tough out in Frances Marshall, and more recently took out a talented vet in Sodiq Yusuff back in May. Santos is a 25 year old Brazilian fighter that enters this match-up with a 16-1 professional record. Santos is primarily a striker who throws a lot of kicks to start his combinations. His footwork is sound defensively, but he has a habit of keeping his hands down which can lead to him taking a lot of damage from counter shots. He throws an explosive and effective leg kick, and he has already shown that he has true KO power in both of his hands. While there is no denying the fact he’s dangerous on the feet, his willingness to engage creates openings for his opponents to take him down. His defensive grappling is rapidly improving, but against powerful wrestlers he could have issues keeping his fights standing. Santos missed weight for this fight, and it’s a bit strange he’s been floating between featherweight and lightweight. This fight could go either way, but I do think the size advantage for Santos could be tough for Naimov to overcome. A low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite in a close one. Mairon Santos by Decision

Mansur Abdul-Malik -1400 vs Antonio Trocoli +800

• Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Mansur Abdul-Malik and Antonio Trocoli. Once again we have Abdul-Malik featured as the largest betting favorite for this event. He is a freak athlete with insane power for middleweight and great striking fundamentals. While Abdul-Malik may be feared for his death touch, he does not seem to entirely rely on his power like many other fighters will. Abdul-Malik is patient when it comes to attacking opponents and finding an opportunity to finish fights late. In his last bout we saw Abdul-Malik extended into the third round facing Cody Brundage. That matchup ended due to a clash of heads but nonetheless Abdul-Malik was able to showcase his cardio and overall grappling chops. Trocoli is an extremely low-level opponent that he figures to crush rather easily. The Brazilian does not pose any real threat on the ground, and his striking is rudimentary. Trocoli will struggle to defend strikes against Abdul-Malik if he is going to land anything of substance. I expect Trocoli will resort to clinching on instinct in this match. I do not expect him to last any more than two total rounds here. Mansur Abdul-Malik by Round Two KO
• Nick: At 28-years old, Mansur Abdul-Malik is an undefeated prospect with a 8-0-1 professional record. All of Abdul-Malik’s wins have come via finish. He’s an explosive athlete with an 80” reach. Primarily a striker, Abdul-Malik has found most of his success overwhelming his opponents with pressure early in fights. His last fight resulted in a controversial Draw in which he fought down to the level of an inconsistent Cody Brundage, and he’ll be looking to return to form here in another favorable match-up against Antonio Trocoli. Antonio Trocoli enters this fight with a 12-5 record at 34 years-old. He is relatively well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. Five of his wins have come via submission and four have come via KO. While he is gifted athletically, he is 0-2 in the UFC and likely fighting to hold his roster spot here as a heavy underdog. He seems to be increasingly tentative as his career has been extended, so he’s no longer the potent finisher that he was on the regional scene. Abdul-Malik is still rounding into form as a prospect, but this feels like a test he should pass with flying colors. Simply put, Trocoli is hittable and does not seem to be UFC level. Mansur Abdul-Malik by Round Two KO

Iwo Baraniewski -200 vs Ibo Aslan +160

• Anthony: This will be a light heavyweight matchup between Iwo Baraniewski and Ibo Aslan. Baraniewski is an undefeated professional with an extensive record fighting as an amateur before that. He emerged from Dana White’s Contender Series last season, winning a contract by knocking out Mahamed Aly very quickly in round one. Baraniewski poses a threat to opponents with his striking but also with his strong wrestling skills. He is confident in his offensive grappling and I expect Baraniewski will clearly edge out Aslan if this fight does hit the mat. We have seen Aslan flattened by opponents on the ground before and Baraniewski has the wrestling and judo needed to win that same manner. He is just as likely to get the job done here using his hands. Aslan can match Baraniewski in terms of his power but I do not think he is quite as durable. Baraniewski should be able to stop Aslan early, but I also favor him if this fight becomes a three round brawl. Aslan looked awful in his most recent showing and I could never trust him as a bettor. It would not surprise me to see Ibo cut from the promotion with another loss here. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One KO 
• Nick: Iwo Baraniewski will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive upset KO win over a highly regarded prospect in Mahamed Aly on Contender Series back in September. He enters this match-up with a 6-0 professional record and all of those wins coming via first round finish. Primarily a striker, Baraniewski is an explosive striker with a muscular but compact frame. He’s extremely aggressive and has KO power in all of his limbs. Ibo Aslan is 14-3 professionally, with all of his wins coming via KO. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, coming into this fight off back-to-back losses. Aslan is an athletic and dangerous offensive striker, but his approach is far from technical as he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. At 29-years old, it’s expected he’ll continue to improve. Still, his defensive grappling and cardio both seem likely to be weaknesses more than they are strengths at this point in his career. As dangerous as he is, he’s faced a relatively low level of opponent by UFC standards, and he seems to lack the aggression that he brought into the promotion when he made his debut. There is some volatility here as these are two potent finishers, but Baraniewski is the rightful favorite. He’s the better technical fighter no matter where this one goes and Aslan seems to be regressing. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One KO

Jalin Turner -375 vs Edson Barboza +290

• Anthony: Next is a great fight at lightweight between Edson Barboza and Jalin Turner. These are two very entertaining strikers and I am expecting a great battle between the veterans here. Barboza is really starting to show his age more at this point, reacting more as he absorbs strikes and wearing worse damage than he used to. Barboza is notably entering this fight with swelling already on his face. However, despite all this Barboza is one of the more feared striking competitors in the octagon. The Brazilian mixes his techniques very well, countering hard and always landing punishing low kicks. It may be difficult for Barboza to close the distance here facing a taller opponent like Turner. Barboza will also be lined up to eat a lot of clean left hands from the southpaw. Still, with Turner having the advantage of youth and size I think it is egregious to bet him as a -350 favorite. Turner has fallen apart before at -270 against Renato Moicano and -300 when facing Dan Hooker. I never thought highly of Turner who is just 14-9 after suffering consecutive losses. He has been more vocal about retirement than Barboza who is nearly ten years older. Turner has a clear wrestling advantage as well but he can never be trusted to execute. He has made poor decisions in fights before when it comes to changing levels and listening to his cornermen. I think there is value on Barboza here as the large betting underdog. Edson Barboza by Round Three KO
• Nick: Jalin Turner is a well rounded fighter who’s greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his long frame to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early with a single strike, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. All fourteen of Turner’s professional victories have come by way of finish. At 30-years old it seems Turner is hitting his athletic prime, but he did temporarily retire after suffering a submission loss to Ignacio Bahamondes back in March. Knowing this, he’s a somewhat volatile fighter here to back as a moderate favorite. Edson Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it as effectively as anyone on the roster. Barboza has done an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best technical strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. As talented as he is, Barboza has been inconsistent at times and it seems his career is suddenly on a rapid decline. He enters this fight off back-to-back losses, and he could be headed for retirement if he can’t find success in this spot. This a volatile fight as Turner is coming out of a temporary retirement, but I do see him as the rightful favorite in this one. Barboza has been a slow starter of late, and that plays right into the strengths of Turner. Jalin Turner by Round One KO

Marvin Vettori -110 vs Brunno Ferreira -110

• Anthony: This is a matchup at middleweight between Brunno Ferreira and Marvin Vettori. Notably Ferreira was heavy on the scales Friday coming in three pounds overweight. Ferreira is known for his explosive power but this matchup is interesting as Vettori has an all-time chin. He has never been finished before. Vettori is currently on a three fight losing streak but I do think he still can compete in this division at just 32 years old. Ferreira will be landing heavy strikes on Vettori while the Italian counters with higher volume punching in return. He does well absorbing shots from his opponents and countering with a flurry of his own offensive strikes. The issue is his shots do not land with the same power. Vettori really poses minimal threat to finish fights with his boxing. Ferreira needs to be mindful not to overexert himself in the early going here against Vettori. Over the course of three rounds it seems likely that Vettori’s cardio will be a factor. Ferreira cannot be whiffing on punches and gassing himself out in search of a finish. I think he will keep poised in this fight knowing the challenge that stands across from him. Ferreira has great judo and the edge here in terms of his grappling too. He could overwhelm Vettori in positions on the mat using his strength and technique. Ferreira is my choice to win since he can do so in a variety of ways. Vettori will only emerge victorious if he can win a decision, outworking Ferreira and taking the scorecards in rounds two and three. Brunno Ferreira by Decision
• Nick: Marvin Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is also a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability. He’s been inconsistent and inactive of late, but at his best he can be a tough out for anyone outside of the top-15 in the division. Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 5-2 in the UFC, coming off back-to-back wins via finish. While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. He’s somewhat short in stature compared to the rest of the division, but he more than makes up for it with strength and advanced athleticism. Ferreira is the more potent finisher in this match-up, but Vettori is extremely hard to finish. I expect Vettori’s technical advantages can shine through here in a fight that is very likely to go to the scorecards. It is also notable Ferreira missed weight for this fight and he did not look good on the scale. Marvin Vettori by Decision

Preliminary Card- Start 8:00pm EST

Fares Ziam -165 vs Nazim Sadykhov +130

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Fares Ziam and Nazim Sadykhov. This should be a good matchup between two athletes that tend to do their best work striking. Ziam has now won five straight fights after getting submitted by Terrance McKinney in 2022. He is a very steady fighter, moving well in each bout and establishing each fight at a range that he is comfortable with. This match will see Ziam look to maintain his outside striking while Sadykhov presses forward and looks to close that distance. Sadykhov trains with Merab Dvalishvili and the team at Serra Longo. He is very good at pushing a fast pace and making his fights hectic. While Sadykhov does prefer to stand and strike with his opponents, he also does well mixing in his grappling and threatening with takedown attempts. Ziam’s length and technical striking skills will likely give him a slight edge throughout the exchanges here standing. Ziam has the more potent jab and does better than Sadykhov fighting while moving backwards. I give him the slight edge in this bout as his skills on defense appear to be far superior. Ziam does not get hit, avoiding 64 percent of opponent attempted strikes. Sadykhov is less technical and more of a brawler. Fares Ziam by Decision
• Nick: Fares Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 17-4 professionally, and he enters this fight on an impressive fight-fight win streak. While it is true he fights somewhat conservatively, he’s been making major improvements from fight to fight. His defensive grappling has come a long way since he made his promotional debut, and it seems he’s added enough size and strength to his frame to start finding finishes on the feet more consistently. Nazim Sadykhov is a dynamic striker on the feet. He has a solid wrestling base and a good understanding of BJJ when his fights hit the mat. Training at an early age, Sadykhov is one of these next generation fighters that has solid ability no matter where his fights go. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo MMA and he’s the first fighter on the UFC roster to represent Azerbaijan. He’s coming off back-to-back wins entering this fight, and it seems he’s entering his prime athletically. This is a tough one to call, but I slightly prefer the Ziam side. He has the better footwork here and he should be able to use his length to edge this one out at range. Fares Ziam by Decision

Maycee Barber -200 vs Karine Silva +160

• Anthony: This is a fight at women’s flyweight between Karine Silva and Maycee Barber. It will likely be a very competitive matchup here fought to judge’s decision. Barber pulled out of her last scheduled appearance when tasked with fighting Erin Blanchfield. Now she seems healthy and draws into an easier test in Silva as she hopes to extend her current winning streak to six. Barber has always been fundamentally sound in all areas of the fight. Her striking has come a very long way and here against Silva, Barber should be landing with higher volume and controlling most exchanges on the feet. The Brazilian will be looking to put Barber into bottom position here using her offensive grappling. It is worth noting that Silva has scored a takedown in each of her last six fights while Barber has conversely ceded at least one in each of hers. However, Barber does still find a way to win despite giving up some ground control time to opponents. Tonight I expect the judges to favor her significant strike totals when compared to the moments that Silva finds on the mat. I am not confident picking Barber to win this fight but she should if the best version of her does show up. She appeared to be in very good shape Friday on the scales. Maycee Barber by Decision
• Nick: Maycee Barber has always been a highly regarded prospect, but she hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She has since regained some of her hype and momentum as she’s strung together six consecutive wins. She’s been out of action since March of 2024, and she notably pulled out of a main event match-up with Erin Blanchfield back in May just minutes before that fight. It’s tough to know where she’ll be mentally here, but at her best she’s a tough out for almost anyone in this division. Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is 5-1 under the UFC banner and 19-5 professionally. He BJJ is more advanced than many ranked fighters in the division. Barber’s mental toughness has to be in question after her recent pull-outs, etc. Still, I see her as the more skilled fighter in this match-up. Silva may be able to find early takedowns, but Barber should be able to outclass her here as this fight wears on. Maycee Barber by Decision

Terrance McKinney -110 vs Chris Duncan -110

• Anthony: Next is a bout at lightweight between Chris Duncan and Terrance McKinney. It is always must see television when McKinney fights, quickly scrapping with opponents in what is typically a one-round brawl. His past five appearances all ended in less than two minutes. This fight could finish in a million different ways and I find it difficult to confidently predict the outcome. McKinney is dangerous but so is Duncan who does seem a bit more durable. Duncan has also been doing it against slightly higher level competition. His previous two fights include wins against Mateusz Rebecki and Jordan Vucenic as the sizable underdog. Duncan will look to avoid the early barrage from McKinney, lasting into the second round where he figures to be fresher and more technically sound. McKinney often does blow his load early in search of the early finish. I am a fan of his aggressive style but he does not have very good defense at all. McKinney will be there to get hit from Duncan and I think he will be better served in this matchup shooting early on. McKinney is a powerful wrestler with good ground and pound from top position. Duncan will need to fight back to his feet after that initial takedown but it will become much easier for him with every second that comes off the clock in this fight. The under 1.5 is listed at -400 for this matchup but it does seem like a very safe bet. One of these two will very likely go to sleep whether it be by knockout or via submission. Odds here have moved to pick’em after McKinney had opened the +150 underdog. Chris Duncan by Round One KO
• Nick: Chris Duncan has one-shot KO power on the feet, but his aggressive style means that he is often open to being countered in exchanges. Duncan is 14-2 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Having recently shifted camps to American Top Team, it’s encouraging to see Duncan fighting with more of an intelligent game plan and leaning more on his wrestling lately. This is especially important given the questions surrounding his durability. Duncan is entering this match-up on a solid three-fight win streak and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against a dangerous opponent in McKinney. Terrance McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 17-7 professionally and all of his wins have come inside the distance. He is 6-4 in the UFC, most recently securing an impressive submission win over Viacheslav Borshchev. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. This is an extremely volatile match-up that is almost certain to end inside the distance. McKinney will be very dangerous early here, but I expect Duncan can take over after weathering that early storm. He’s been more active and finding success against a higher level of opponent. Chris Duncan by Round Two KO

Grant Dawson -220 vs Manuel Torres +180

• Anthony: This should be a good scrap at lightweight between Manuel Torres and Grant Dawson. The bout features a great striker opposing one of the division’s best grapplers. Dawson is elite when it comes to scoring takedowns and controlling opponents on the mat. He will use wrestling today in order to limit Torres’ explosive offense. El Loco has really announced himself since joining the promotion. I think placement here as the featured prelim is deserved given his fan friendly style. All of Torres wins in the UFC have come by stoppage in the first round. He is a very fun fighter to watch, switching stances and aggressively trying to hurt his opponents with strikes. Torres has solid boxing but very good muay thai and close range kicks. While I expect Torres to fight well early in this one, Dawson is the much more steady athlete and the preferred side for me if this bout gets into round two. He is an extremely high-level grappler that will try to test Torres’ takedown defense. Dawson will be looking to shoot here as soon as the fight begins. Torres has the size advantage over Dawson and a two-inch edge in reach. I think he will come out firing here in front of what should be a full Las Vegas crowd. Torres will fade quickly if this fight sees a second round but I am expecting him to get the knockout win very early. He has confidence to throw with power before his opponents can get to his legs. I think there is great value in Torres here as the underdog, although his one win condition will be that early finish. Bettors can get an even higher price on Torres by betting him to win in the very first round. Manuel Torres by Round One KO
• Nick: Grant Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 23-2-1 professionally, holding impressive wins over Damir Ismagulov, Jared Gordon, and most recently Diego Ferreira. Dawson has made dramatic improvements since he moved camps to the American Top Team. His cardio and overall fight IQ have improved dramatically. While his striking has come a long way, he’s still primarily a wrestler and on the feet he can be very vulnerable against quality competition. Manuel Torres is dangerous on the feet offensively, but tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently defeating Drew Dober with an impressive Round One KO. Torres can be dangerous against anyone, but there is no denying his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a volatile fighter to back with any confidence. This is a binary match-up in which Dawson is clearly the better grappler and Torres is the much better striker. Torres will be live for an early KO here, but I feel it’s more likely we see Dawson impose a grappling heavy gameplan on his way to another win. I’m concerned about his durability, but I’m backing the favorite. Grant Dawson by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Jan Blachowicz -130 vs Bogdan Guskov +110

• Anthony: The main card begins with this fight at light heavyweight between Bogdan Guskov and Jan Blachowicz. Guskov has been surging up the rankings at 205 pounds after winning in four straight appearances. He has won via stoppage in the first two rounds of each fight, quickly pressuring his opponents and engaging with his hands. He averages 4.17 significant strikes landed per minute. This fight will determine just how high Guskov’s ceiling may be, if he is capable of knocking out a former champion like Blachowicz I think that he will be able to finish anyone. Blachowicz has always been very durable and smart with how he approaches each match. Guskov will look to cause a car crash against Blachowicz, not allowing him to establish his range or find a home landing with his leg kicks. Blachowicz does have the skillset to win this fight over three rounds, maintaining a better pace than Guskov and winning the final five minutes. However, I do not feel confident enough backing Blachowicz here at 42. He is starting to show signs of his age and Guskov seems like the better wager at plus money. Guskov cashed as underdog in three of his last four while performing like a massive favorite. I am again trusting Guskov with my money, expecting him to land early and stay aggressive throughout this fight. He has the skill to win by stoppage despite how tough Blachowicz is. Bogdan Guskov by Round Two KO
• Nick: Jan Blachowicz, is a well-rounded fighter with serious knockout power. The former light heavyweight champion has a solid grappling base, but on the ground he relies on brute strength more than advanced technical ability. Blachowicz’ chin has held up well of late, but he was outclassed his last time out against Carlos Ulberg. In spite of his advanced age, he still has a powerful high kick and he can end a fight with any of his limbs. He can sometimes be a slow starter, which could prove troublesome here against an athletic opponent in Guscov. Bogdan Guskov is 18-3 professionally, with fifteen of those eighteen wins coming via KO. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently securing a win via KO over a tough out in Nikita Krylov. Guskov is a powerful striker, but his aggressive style makes him a vulnerable target in extended exchanges. He seems to have a decent BJJ game, but we really haven’t seen his grappling tested against the top half of this division. These are two fighters that can finish a fight in an instant, but the experience advantage for Blachowicz can not be overstated. Guskov has been impressive, but this fight represents a dramatic step up in level of competition for him here. Jan Blachowicz by Round Two KO

Payton Talbott -250 vs Henry Cejudo +200

• Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Henry Cejudo and Payton Talbott. This is a very interesting piece of matchmaking between a young prospect and an established former champ. Cejudo has indicated that this will be his final fight ever in the octagon. The Olympic gold medalist had won belts in two weight divisions before but now still fighting in 2025 we are not seeing the same Cejudo that we are used to. It appears that Henry is less motivated to compete, staying in shape only throughout fight camp and perhaps not training quite as hard as he should. Cejudo actually spent time training with Talbott recently and so both men are very familiar with one another. While Cejudo may be signing to face Talbott since he expects it is easy money, he also is happy to collect one more paycheck regardless of result. Cejudo has now dropped three straight fights after losing to Song Yadong earlier this year. I thought that was his worst performance, tiring and eventually quitting late after absorbing an eye poke. Talbott has the advantage striking against Cejudo given his speed and his range. He has a three-inch reach edge over Cejudo and stands considerably taller. While I am expecting Talbott to emerge victorious here, Cejudo does seem like a live underdog getting disrespected quite a bit at these odds. Talbott has shown some deficiencies in terms of his grappling defense and an elite wrestler like Cejudo could likely take advantage of him on the mat. However, I expect most of this bout will be fought standing where Talbott will land the much better combinations throughout. Payton Talbott by Decision
• Nick: Payton Talbott is a gifted striker with surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and does a good job circling away from the power of his opponents in exchanges. His defensive grappling was exposed back in 2024 against a talented vet in Raoni Barcelos. However, Talbott has since secured a dominant win over Felipe Lima and he is still one of the more exciting prospects in the world at 135 lbs. This is a binary match-up in which Talbott will look like a favorite if he can mostly keep this fight standing. That being said, that could prove excessively difficult in this match-up. Henry Cejudo is primarily a wrestler, known for capturing UFC titles at both flyweight and bantamweight and also for winning a Gold medal at the 2008 Summer Olympics. Across his lengthy UFC tenure, Cejudo has evolved into a technical boxer with underrated ability on the feet. He does a good job closing distance and stringing together combinations. As talented and accomplished as he is, there is no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. He enters this match-up on a three fight losing streak and he’s announced that he’ll be retiring from the sport regardless of the result in this match-up. At his best, Cejudo could dominate in this type of match-up. That being said, there is no denying he is very far past his prime. It is always a red flag when a fighter competes after announcing their retirement. All that being said, the price on Cejudo is a bit disrespectful here. He’s the much better grappler, and I think he could have enough left in the tank to go out on a win. This is a very low confidence play, but I’ll take a small shot on the underdog. He has excellent durability and his grappling ability could keep things close. Henry Cejudo by Decision

Tatsuro Taira -130 vs Brandon Moreno +110

• Anthony: The featured fight comes at flyweight between Tatsuro Taira and former champion Brandon Moreno. Both men will be interested in the co-main event matchup and likely to compete with the champion next year. Taira is 17-1 overall and starting to really fill into his body. Japan’s best hope at a world title comes on Taira’s back, given his elite jiu jitsu and wrestling that always causes opponents to scramble hard. Taira does not always hold winning wrestling positions but normally he can at least get a few minutes of control time before ultimately getting reversed. He is a potent threat to finish any bout with his grappling but he also rarely does maneuver out of position to chase a choke. Taira’s striking pales in comparison to Moreno but he has much better grappling overall. Moreno averages 64 percent takedown defense and while I think he will put up a good fight here, Taira has a great chance to take his back for two rounds. Moreno has never been finished before and I doubt it happens here in a three round fight. Moreno will score consistently with his slick boxing anytime he can separate from Taira. I believe Taira has the tools to corral this victory though the margin of error will be very slim. Tatsuro Taira by Decision
• Nick: This is an excellent match-up between two of the best flyweights in the world. Moreno is one of the better offensive wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward and forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. He can be over aggressive at times and present openings to be countered, but he has a solid chin and excellent cardio. Tatsuro Taira is just twenty-five years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level wrestling and BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a submission win over Hyun Sung Park. Taira is the better grappler here, but not by a wide enough margin to dominate if this fight hits the mat. I expect Moreno can use his superior footwork to mostly keep this fight standing. He’s the much better striker, with the better overall experience and resume. Brandon Moreno by Decision

Alexandre Pantoja -250 vs Joshua Van +200

• Anthony: The co-main event has Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight championship against challenger Joshua Van. This title fight came together at UFC 317 with both Pantoja and Van emerging victorious. It is the fourth appearance for Van this year and he is attempting to win a world championship at just 24 years old. He is a very feisty boxer with good hand speed and excellent muay thai skills. Watch for Van to unload combinations on Pantoja anytime he is able to get in very close. He has elite power for a flyweight but Pantoja has never been finished before. The Brazilian really is a zombie in each fight, pressuring forward and never feeling the power coming back at him from opponents. Pantoja has a style that tends to work no matter what kind of opponent he faces. He boasts 12 wins by submission and the best jiu jitsu skills at this weight. Van has proven that he is capable of winning in any brawl but he has not yet showcased great takedown defense or any real skills off of his back. The champion should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and by controlling Van on the mat he can make this a very easy night. Pantoja is now facing a sixth unique opponent in this title reign. He is one of the pound-for-pound best and although Van has a very bright future ahead this is a brutal matchup. I am confidently betting on Pantoja to get the victory. It will be similar to how Pantoja finished last year, closing out the last pay-per-view with another title defense. I think he will dominate Van and win via submission. And Still. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Alexandre Pantoja is elite pretty much everywhere. He’s outstanding on the ground and his striking is crisp and explosive. He’s on an eight-fight winning streak, most recently defending his title against a dangerous opponent in Kai Kara-France. This will be Pantoja’s fifth title defense since he captured it from Brandon Moreno back in 2023, and in all of his recent wins it seems he’s been a bit more reserved, and also more willing to lean on his wrestling to secure rounds on the scorecards. Joshua Van is 15-2 professionally, with seven wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. For a 24-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. He’s quickly developed a reputation as a fighter who gets better as his fighters wear on and he enters this fight on a five fight win streak. As gifted as Van is, this feels like a bit too much too soon here. He’s an excellent striker, but Pantoja’s grappling advantage can’t be understated. I expect the Champion can find the takedowns he needs here to eventually work for a finish. And Still. Alexandre Pantoja by Round Two Submission

Merab Dvalishvili -420 vs Petr Yan +310

• Anthony: The main event is a fight for the bantamweight championship between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. This is a rematch of the 2023 fight that Merab won via unanimous decision. Throughout that fight he completely dominated Yan, pressuring constantly and landing 11 of 49 total takedown attempts. Yan did deal with injuries in that first meeting but again he should be considered a big underdog given the champion’s current reign. Dvalishvili has done nothing but dominate every opponent facing him on this 14 fight winning streak. He is looking to set a record here in 2025 by defending his title four times. It is unprecedented the pace and activity of Merab throughout his time as champion. He is a physical freak with a motor that nobody can match at bantamweight. This did appear to be a tougher weight cut than usual for Dvalishvili but he is very likely going to win again. Yan is just not to be completely overlooked here at +300. He was a champion at 27 years old and continues to improve with each and every fight. His boxing and elite clinch skills give him a small chance of stunning Dvalishvili early in this fight. Yan is capable of winning a few rounds on the scorecards but he will not take this decision from Dvalishvili. I think his chance of winning comes down to knocking out the elusive champion. The Machine would be smart to keep the takedowns coming, rather than giving Yan ample opportunities to connect on the feet. And Still. Merab Dvalishvili by Decision
• Nick: This fight represents a rematch of a title fight that took place back in March of 2023. Yan injured himself early in that one, and was dominated as he was taken down repeatedly over the course of five rounds. Merab might be the best pure wrestler on the roster, and he’s in the process of establishing himself as one of the greatest bantamweights of all time. He has shown an ability to score takedowns from a wide range of positions, as he’s set multiple UFC records for most takedowns in a fight. Dvalishvili averages nearly 6 takedowns per 15 minutes. He almost always leans on his grappling to control position so most of his wins come via decision. He has strung together thirteen consecutive victories under the UFC banner, most recently securing a dominant decision win over Cory Sandhagen. His cardio is on a level never before seen in the sport, and it seems he’s still improving as a fighter at 34 years old. Petr Yan, a former UFC bantamweight champion, is a sniper on the feet. He eats some shots to set up bigger ones, but his combinations are what make him so dangerous. He does an excellent job weathering early pressure from his opponents as he processes their timing and habits. He takes in this information and then uses it to trap his opponents and exploit them with his own devastating offense. Petr Yan is one of the more dangerous and pure strikers in the division. He throws powerful leg kicks, a snappy jab, and he does an excellent job stringing together lengthy combinations. His defensive grappling is better than average, and he’s coming off three straight wins as he enters this match-up. Yan should give a better showing of himself this time around, but I still expect he’ll struggle to stay standing. This should play out closer than the line suggests, but it’s tough not to back the Champ on this current run. He should be able to hang on the feet, but his rinse-and-repeat style of pressure wrestling should allow him to win another decision. And Still. Merab Dvalishvili by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com