UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway – 10.26.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway. This card is absolutely stacked with great fights live from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 262-161-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 256-167-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-25-2024 at 5pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 10:00am EST
Rinat Fakhretdinov -230 vs Carlos Leal +185
- Anthony: The card today begins at welterweight with Rinat Fakhretdinov taking on Carlos Leal. This is a short notice booking for Leal after Fakhretdinov was originally slated to fight Nursulton Ruziboev. Fakhretdinov has looked solid since joining the promotion, though he struggled late and nearly lost last time out against Nicolas Dalby. Fakhretdinov averages 1.48 takedowns landed per round while constantly moving forward and searching for his shots. Leal is a veteran of seven PFL fights and more powerful when it comes to his boxing. It would not surprise me seeing Leal find himself a finish, here overwhelming Fakhretdinov with pure power. However I often will favor the grappler in these scenarios and it seems like Fakhretdinov has all the tools to win. Leal is not going to be much of a late fight threat if his energy is sapped defending takedowns in rounds one and two. Fakhretdinov should be able to control the pace here and find himself a win thanks to his wrestling. Leal does well working his way up from takedowns but he does fail often defending the initial shot. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision
- Nick: Primarily a grappler, it’s a bit surprising to see eleven of Fakhretdinov’s twenty-three professional wins have come via KO. He has an impressive record at 22-3-1, coming off a solid decision win over a tough out in Nicolas Dalby. Fakhretdinov is a gifted wrestler who does exceptional work against the cage. He throws powerful strikes but mostly as a means to set up his grappling. It seems his striking has come a long way over the past few years. That being said, his cardio and durability are still a bit of a question mark at this level. As dangerous as he is, we have seen Fakhretdinov fade at times late in fights. Carlos Leal will be making his UFC debut here, but he comes in with a solid resume for a promotional newcomer. Leal made a splash with the PFL, breaking into the welterweight tournaments off a win on their Challenger Series, and eventually advancing to the semi-finals in the million dollar welterweight tournament. Leal is 21-5 professionally, with ten of this professional wins coming via KO. Primarily a striker, Leal is more than willing to eat shots to return them. He has one-shot knockout power, but his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a difficult fighter to back with any confidence. The line is far too wide here, but I do see Fakhritdinova is the side to back. Leal’s takedown defense is decent, but I expect it won’t be enough to keep this fight standing. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision
Ismail Naurdiev -175 vs Bruno Silva +140
- Anthony: Next is a bout at middleweight between Bruno Silva and Ismail Naurdiev. This is a difficult fight to handicap as neither man has seen sustained success when fighting upper tier competition. Naurdiev was cut from the UFC previously after a 2-2 stint ending in 2020. Since then he has been fighting with Brave FC but not finding much sustained success there either. Naurdiev is very good in the early part of fights but he quickly fades as the going gets tougher. His propensity to quit and sell late rounds makes me weary to ever back him as the betting favorite. Silva is difficult to trust as well but he is at least a bit more consistent for fifteen minutes. The Brazilian has proven to be a capable grappler but also comfortable exchanging in low volume striking affairs. I consider this fight very evenly matched so I prefer siding with Silva at plus money. Naurdiev’s offense will likely wane early here while Silva picks up steam. Bruno Silva by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ismail Naurdiev will be making his UFC debut here, having mostly fought for a popular Middle Eastern regional promotion via Brave CF. Naurdiev is 23-7 professionally, but it is somewhat surprising he’s getting a shot to fight in the UFC as he’s lost two of his last three fights. At 28-years old it’s expected he’ll continue to improve, but he’s been finished eight times professionally. He’s dangerous offensively, but he takes unnecessary risks and his durability has failed him on more than one occasion. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with twenty of his twenty-three professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. At his best, Silva is very dangerous offensively. However, he’s been wildly inconsistent in the UFC which is evident by his 4-5 record within the promotion. Silva is coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career. That being said, he’s likely being given a chance to hold onto his roster spot here as he’s been taking on a high level of opponent. This is a low level and volatile match-up, but I slightly prefer the Silva side. I expect he can stay safe early and then find a finish as soon as Naurdiev starts to fade. Bruno Silva by Round Two KO
Farid Basharat -700 vs Victor Hugo +500
- Anthony: This is a bout at 145 pounds between Victor Hugo and Farid Basharat. Hugo weighed in ten pounds over the bantamweight limit but this fight will still go on as planned at the decision of Basharat. He hit the scales at 137 pounds and still agreed to take on Hugo. Basharat puts his perfect record of 12-0 on the line and Hugo seems clearly outmatched despite the weight discrepancy. Basharat is landing 3.96 takedowns per fight on average, largely controlling opponents with his dominant wrestling. Hugo is a skilled striker and while Basharat could certainly compete with him standing, the path of least resistance comes via the takedown. Basharat will look to land leg kicks on Hugo in order to combat his boxing. Hugo will struggle to defend the takedowns of Basharat as he rides him toward the fence and down to the mat. Basharat could be forced to stand for a short period in this bout but he is very sound defensively and quick to evade opponent strikes. Basharat has very good head movement and a high land rate on his own offensive attacks. I expect him to slice through Hugo here and perhaps even find himself a finish. Farid Basharat by Decision
- Nick: Farid Basharat is the younger brother of Jahvid Basharat, who is a rising contender in his own right. Similarly to his brother, Baharat is highly skilled no matter where the fight goes. He is 12-0 professionally, coming off a convincing decision win over Taylor Lapilus. Basharat strikes well at range. He does a good job working behind his jab. He throws lengthy combinations and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a very high pace. His grappling is solid, especially defensively. He’s dangerous in scrambles and very difficult to take down. Victor Hugo is 25-4 professionally, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2014. He’s a well-rounded fighter, but primarily a grappler. Eight of his professional wins have come via KO and nine have come via submission. He’s dangerous offensively but somewhat unconventional in his approach. His movements seem unnatural at times, and his aggressive style leaves opportunities for opponents to catch him with counter shots. Hugo is dangerous, especially early in fights. However, I expect Basharat will have him outclassed no matter where this one goes. Farid Basharat by Decision
Kennedy Nzechukwu -800 vs Chris Barnett +550
- Anthony: Be sure to tune in for this fight at heavyweight between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Chris Barnett. Nzechukwu is 6’5 while Chris Barnett is listed 5’9. Not only is there a listed eight-inch height difference but an eight-inch reach edge as well. Nzechukwu is not really built to fight up at heavyweight but his length could prove a huge issue for Barnett. He can likely pick at range, landing double or three times the number of strikes coming back in his direction. However, Kennedy has not proven trustworthy when it comes to betting these fights. Barnett should be an easy out at 38 years old but Nzechukwu has fought flat on numerous occasions in the UFC. It will be interesting to see how he responds to punches from a real heavyweight after getting dusted by much less imposing men before. Barnett knows he needs to swing big to win this one and I could see him at least knocking down Kennedy once. Barnett also does seem to hold a slight edge over Nzechukwu in terms of his cardio. I would not want to be holding a betslip with Nzechukwu -800 if this match enters round two. Chris Barnett by Round Two KO
- Nick: The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative. He often spends too much time just waiting for fights to come to him. He’s a dangerous striker and technically sound offensively, but his extreme tentativeness prevents him from dominating inferior opponents. He is coming off an ugly decision loss to an aging vet in Ovince St. Preux, and he’ll be moving up to heavyweight for the first time here after a mediocre run at light heavyweight. Chris Barnett throws more spinning attacks and high kicks than we usually see from a Heavyweight. He’s only 5’9”, so in all actuality he should be fighting at a much lower weight class. Barnett is 23-9 professionally, but most of his wins have come against a relatively low level of opponent. He has been out of action since September of 2022, dealing with injuries and personal issues over the past two years. While he’s still primarily a striker, Nzechukwu has been leaning on his offensive grappling more lately. There is no denying his BJJ has come a very long way since he debuted with the UFC back in 2019. He’s going to have a massive reach advantage on the feet here, and if he struggles at all he should be able to take Barnett down with ease. Barnett is an easy fighter to cheer for, but I expect he’ll be outclassed by a wide margin here. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round One Submission
Abus Magomedov -150 vs Brunno Ferreira +125
- Anthony: This is a very close matchup at middleweight between Abus Magomedov and Brunno Ferreira. All five of Ferreira’s appearances in the UFC and Dana White’s Contender Series ended round one. Ferreira is coming off consecutive Performance of the Night bonuses for knocking out Phil Hawes and Dustin Stoltzfus. This guy is a problem when he is moving forward and throwing straight shots with such power. Magomedov would be smart to grapple against Ferreira and avoid engaging much on the feet. Magomedov is coming off a win in his last fight that saw him secure six takedowns and more than twelve minutes of control time. Executing this gameplan could help Magomedov escape the first round where Ferreira is so dangerous. I feel comfortable backing Magomedov given his own striking skills but certainly I’d advise him against engaging at all early. He has a six-inch reach advantage that can help keep distance between him and Ferreira. Magomedov is the more technically skilled striker and vastly superior when it comes to wrestling. Abus Magomedov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Abus Magomedov is a rangy striker with a decent wrestling base and dangerous BJJ. He throws extremely powerful strikes, but he struggles if opponents can close distance on him and force him to fight off his back foot. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Warlley Alves back in May, but that was a fight in which many expected he’d be able to find a finish. He’s a competent grappler, but his questionable cardio forces him to play out most of his fights at striking range. Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 3-1 in the UFC, coming off back-to-back wins via KO. While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. These are two fighters with questionable cardio and durability, which makes this a volatile match-up. I slightly prefer Magomedov as the longer and more technical striker, but Ferreira’s power makes him very live as an underdog. Abus Magomedov by Round Two KO
Myktybek Orolbai -300 vs Mateusz Rebecki +240
- Anthony: This should be an interesting contest with Myktybek Orolbai fighting Mateusz Rebecki. Both men agreed to compete at or under 160 pounds after this was originally scheduled to take place at lightweight. Rebecki enters this fight looking huge and likely again relying on his offensive grappling. The southpaw is often very quick to shoot in his fights and Orolbai will certainly get to test Rebecki’s grappling against his own. Both men really thrive with their offensive grappling but Rebecki tends to rely on it much more than Orolbai. In Orolbai’s last appearance, he controlled Elves Brenner for half of the fight and then outstruck him for the latter seven minutes. He is much more technically skilled than Rebecki and when it comes to power these two do not compare at all. Orolbai will lead the dance here striking and Rebecki will force his takedown attempts. I very much trust Orolbai to stuff opponent takedowns and keep his balance in this spot. I could see him putting Rebecki into several positions on the mat that we haven’t seen him before. I am expecting Orolbai to take this one convincingly. Myktybek Orolbai by Decision
- Nick: Myktybek Oralbai is 13-1-1 professionally, most recently securing a win via decision over a tough out in Elves Brenner. Orolbai is relatively well-rounded with six wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s made considerable improvements over his last few fights, primarily in his striking ability. While well-rounded, he is primarily a grappler. He pursues takedowns with relentless pressure and once he grounds his opponents he is very heavy on top for a fighter with his frame. Mateusz Rebecki is 19-2 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He is coming off a humbling loss to Diego Ferreira in which his cardio failed him miserably after he dominated for the majority of the first round. Rebecki is a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. All that being said, he’s going to struggle to find consistent success at this level if he can’t conserve enough energy to stay effective until the scorecards. The line has gotten completely out of hand, but I see Orolbai as the rightful favorite. He should be able to score plenty of takedowns across fifteen minutes and he should be able to score damage as he finds himself in favorable positions as Rebecki fades as this fight wears on. Myktybek Oralbai by Decision
Geoff Neal -300 vs Rafael Dos Anjos +240
- Anthony: This is a matchup at welterweight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Geoff Neal. Both men are looking to avoid extending their current losing streaks from two to three. Neal’s most recent appearance came at UFC 298 when Illia Topuria won the featherweight title. He lost to Ian Garry by split decision. The product of Fortis MMA is an exceptional boxer with a lot of power for this weight class. Neal does well stringing together combinations and stunning opponents with his jab. Dos Anjos is a good striker but I do not think he can match his fellow southpaw in a striking match. Neal has a five-inch reach advantage that can only be negated on the mat. Dos Anjos has thrived in bouts where he is able to effectively wrestle. Often when RDA is facing a striker he will relentlessly move forward and force them to the mat. He is a sizeable dog for good reason but this becomes a very interesting fight as Dos Anjos accrues a few minutes of control time. Neal does not always put forth late effort while Dos Anjos clearly has the energy for a five round fight. I expect the former champion to fight very well and surprise a lot of people here. Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision
- Nick: Geoff Neal is coming off back-to-back losses, but they came to two of the division’s more promising prospects in Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmanov. He fights out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA. Neal is a powerful striker who is extremely advanced in terms of his technical ability. The one major knock on him is that he’s tentative at times. He doesn’t always put out consistent volume so he sometimes ends up falling behind in his fights if he can’t find an early finish. Rafael Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but extremely talented on the mat as an advanced BJJ black belt. He does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers and his striking is more technically advanced than the majority of his opponents. He’s a former champion at 155 lbs, with notable wins over Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, but he’s now fighting up a weightclass at welterweight as his career enters its final stages. The line does feel wide here as Dos Anjos is the much better grappler in this match-up. That being said, I expect Neal’s size and strength advantages to allow him to mostly keep this fight on the feet. Neal can be inconsistent at times, but at his best this is a fight he should dominate at range. Geoff Neal by Decision
Rafael Cerqueira -120 vs Ibo Aslan +100
- Anthony: The preliminary card ends with light heavyweights Ibo Aslan and Rafael Cerqueira. This is a rather low-level piece of matchmaking with a high position on the card due to a likely knockout. These men have combined for 25 professional fights and not one has needed the judge’s scorecards. Aslan will garner plenty of crowd support representing Turkey and a nickname of The Last Ottoman. He avenged his only professional loss by beating Anton Turkalj in his last fight. Cerqueira boasts a perfect 11-0 record but he has fought absolute nobodies on his way up. Cerqueira has showcased good striking but nobody he faced has landed anything meaningful to yet challenge his chin. Aslan has proven to have the ability to take a punch and keep moving forward. He is a big, sloppy striker the same as Cerqueira but Aslan does seem to throw in longer combinations with tighter overall boxing. Cerqueira does scare me a bit with his power and size but at near even money I am picking Aslan here. Ibo Alsan by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ibo Aslan is 13-1 professionally, with all of his wins coming via KO. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut over Anton Turkalj, where he managed to avenge the only loss of his professional career. Aslan is an athletic and dangerous offensive striker, but his approach is far from technical as he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. At 28-years old, it’s expected he’ll continue to improve. Still, his defensive grappling and cardio both seem likely to be weaknesses more than they are strengths at this point in his career. As dangerous as he is, he’s faced a relatively low level of opponent by UFC standards, so it’s tough to project he’s the type of prospect who should be expected to climb the rankings at light heavyweight. Rafael Cerqueira will be making his UFC debut in this spot. Cerqueira is 11-0 professionally, but getting a late start in the promotion as he recently turned 34 years-old. Cerqueira has won each of his last seven fights via finish, but those wins have come against a questionable level opponent as he’s primarily fought for a small regional promotion in Demo Fight in Brazil. He’s a dangerous striker but it’s tough to gauge his level given his lack of quality competition. This is a low level and volatile match-up, but I slightly prefer Aslan here as we’ve seen more from him at this level. Either way, I don’t expect this fight to hit the scorecards. Ibo Aslan by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 2:00pm EST
Shara Magomedov -175 vs Armen Petrosyan +140
- Anthony: The main card begins with a battle at middleweight between Armen Petrosyan and Shara Magomedov. It seemed like a tough weight cut for Magomedov but he did make the limit with success. Although a perfect 14-0, Magomedov has made several tactical mistakes since joining the UFC. I am a huge fan of his skillset but he does have holes in his striking defense and takedown defense that need addressing. I would bet against Magomedov if tested here by a skilled grappler but Petrosyan will likely oblige Magomedov fighting at kickboxing range. Both men are best when able to get their reads and unload powerful combination strikes. Petrosyan may test his great muay thai against Magomedov although that clinch is a dangerous place to engage. We really should be treated to a great fight at range here where both men find plenty of success. Magomedov is generally more aggressive and willing to attempt more varied attacks than Petrosyan. I think we are very likely to see a knockout here given the style of both men. Shara Magomedov by Round Two KO
- Nick: Sharaputdin Magomedov is an explosive striker, extremely dangerous both at range and in the clinch. He’s a competent wrestler who can dominate in top position, but there is no denying the fact he is most content to stand-and-trade on the feet. Magomedov is very light on his feet. He’s constantly bouncing in the cage and while his strikes can be somewhat untraditional he fights out of a muay-thai stance. He is 14-0 professionally, with eleven of those wins coming via KO. As gifted as he is offensively, his defensive grappling is questionable at best and his cardio seems like it may not be on par with other top contenders on the roster. Armen Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and five of his eight professional wins have come via KO. He is 3-w under the UFC banner, most recently falling via submission in a brutal stylistic match-up against an elite grappler in Rodolfo Vieira. Petrosyan’s only recent losses have come to fighters that hold a considerable grappling advantage over him. This should be a competitive fight, but I like the value of Petrosyan here. He’s been facing a tougher level of opponent and he should have a considerable grappling advantage here if he chooses to make it part of his gameplan. Armen Petrosyan by Decision
Magomed Ankalaev -400 vs Aleksandar Rakic +300
- Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight matchup between Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic. Ankalaev seems to be on the right side when comparing the skills of these fighters. Rakic is very fundamentally sound but Ankalaev has great speed and fight changing power. Rakic does well landing heavy combinations but Ankalaev is a defensive wizard. He absorbs very few strikes and none land on him without consequence. Rakic does very well landing leg kicks and I expect him to land that attack as often as he can here. Ankalaev is an easier target to hit when his movement is compromised and the takedown threat is minimal. I expect Ankalaev to mix in takedowns as he needs them here. Rakic can beat him in a labored, striking match but Ankalaev is the much better martial artist in my eyes. He is deserving of a light heavyweight title shot and this could be the performance that gets him there. Rakic will really need things to go perfect in order to pull off this upset. His 85 percent takedown defense must hold and the judge’s must not be involved fighting here in Abu Dhabi. Ankalaev is one of my most confident picks. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
- Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has propelled him to the top of the division. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. He is 19-1-1 professionally, and many expect he’ll be granted a title shot if he can secure a convincing win in this match-up. Aleksandar Rakic is a highly technical boxer with ridiculous athleticism and explosiveness. He is athletic for the division, but he sometimes overextends and gets caught in exchanges. At times it seems he’s overcautious as he waits for fights to come to him. He comes into this fight off an ugly KO loss to Jiri Prochazka at UFC 300, a fight in which he was dominating until he started to fade and allowed Prochazka to take over. This fight should play out closer than the line suggests, but I do see Ankalaev getting this done. He’s the better striker, especially defensively. He’s also the better grappler by a wide margin. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Three KO
Lerone Murphy -280 vs Dan Ige +220
- Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight between Lerone Murphy and Dan Ige. Fans are of course interested to see Ige perform here after stepping up on hours notice to save the co-main event of UFC 303. He deserves to fight on pay-per-view and stopping an unbeaten opponent like Murphy would vault him right into title contention. Ige’s boxing is very good but his unnatural power is what gives him an advantage here fighting at featherweight. He is a lethal finishing threat, but over the course of fifteen minutes Murphy should be able to outclass him. Murphy seems to have taken some leaps forwards fighting with more aggression and poise. He is averaging five significant strikes landed per minute and I much prefer his range of weapons to Ige’s strict boxing. Murphy is also a capable offensive grappler as showcased in his previous two fights. Ige has on occasion used wrestling to his advantage but I do not worry about him outmuscling Murphy who has the far better technique. Despite the fact he is much more skilled than Ige, I do not feel comfortable betting Murphy at -250 or higher. He struggles to win convincingly with his general inactivity and anything could happen in a three round fight. Lerone Murphy by Decision
- Nick: Lerone Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with a 14-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last five fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Dan Ige has an extremely high FIght IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but he’s also comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his weight/hips. He has surprising KO power for his frame, and it seems he only loses fights to the absolute best featherweights in the world. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to a top contender in Diego Lopes, which came in a fight he took on just a few hours’ notice. While he didn’t secure the victory, he did give a solid showing of himself in spite of the unfavorable circumstances. The line feels wide here, but I do expect Murphy is the rightful favorite. He should be able to work at range here given his reach advantage, and he’ll have a massive grappling advantage if he chooses to take this fight to the mat. Lerone Murphy by Decision
Khamzat Chimaev -250 vs Robert Whittaker +200
- Anthony: This is a five round middleweight fight between Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev. It appears the winner of this bout will likely fight next for the undisputed championship. Chimaev pulled out of his last meeting with Whittaker and struggled again to make the scales yesterday. He is a real enigma, now saying very little and fighting a rather sporadic schedule. Whittaker stayed busy when Chimaev pulled out and earned himself a quick win over Ikram Aliskerov. There is no doubt Whittaker is still one of the world’s best and his chances in this matchup are better than the odds would suggest. Whittaker has previously disposed of great power threats when facing Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero. He should be cognizant of having five rounds to work and not engaging much with Chimaev early. The undefeated Chimaev is known for his propensity to start fights shot out of a cannon. He will quickly be looking to takedown Whittaker and work toward a fast finish. Whittaker’s takedown defense has held up throughout the years but I am truly fearful of Chimaev at his best. I am expecting a quick submission for him today as he overpowers Whittaker in the first. Whittaker is a generous underdog price but the best play here is looking at his live odds. I am placing a large bet on Chimaev via Finish and hedging my position if we do see round one end. Chimaev’s blatant cardio issues could be put to the test here and I do not think he can take those late rounds off the former champion. He needs to get it done early. Khamzat Chimaev by Round One Submission
- Nick: Khamzat Chimaev is one of the more hyped prospects the UFC has ever seen. He’s an extremely talented grappler known to lift his opponents fully in the air, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he throws devastating ground-and-pound while boasting an advanced arsenal of submissions. He’s an underrated striker with true KO power and many have him pegged as a future champion. Having bounced between welterweight and middleweight for most of his career, it seems he’s finally moving up to middleweight for good. This match-up with Whittaker was originally scheduled to take place back in June, but Chimaev was forced to pull out due to illness. Whittaker ended up fighting a replacement in Ikram Ilaskerov, and winning that fight via KO in the first round. Dating back to 2015, Whittaker has only lost to champions of the division in Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. Whittaker is very cerebral defensively and generally does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents. Additionally, he does a good job staying on the offensive even when he’s backing up. It is encouraging to see that Whittaker has been leaning on his leg kicks a lot more lately. This will be a valuable weapon for him here as a means to keep Chimaev from closing the distance and grasping him for takedowns. It’s easy to understand why Chimaev is the favorite here. He’s going to come out aggressive and I expect he dominates this fight on the ground early. That being said, I expect Whittaker to weather that early storm. At this price, I’ll take a shot on Whittaker’s ability to weaponize his cardio and take this fight over late. A low confidence play, but I’m siding with the underdog. Robert Whittaker by Round Four KO
Illia Topuria -275 vs Max Holloway +220
- Anthony: The main event is a clash between featherweight champion Illia Topuria and the division’s former champion Max Holloway. Holloway last fought at UFC 300 and stole the show with his knockout of Justin Gathje as the final horn blew. Max always fights clean but that performance was yet another masterclass, outstriking Gathje nearly two-to-one and winning every round up at lightweight. That performance earned a Performance of the Night bonus and certainly seems like a lock for Knockout of the Year. Holloway has a much more complete resume than Topuria from the top to the bottom. While Topuria has really looked incredible on his way to 15-0, it is his fluid striking and power that draws fan attention. He has reached international superstardom with his media presence in Europe. It may very well be the beginning of a long title reign for El Matador but to do so he will need to crack a chin that has never been cracked before. Holloway’s only career knockdown was suffered in that last fight against Justin Gaethje. Many have connected on Holloway throughout the years but he has always remained present and returned fire thereafter. Topuria does rely a lot on his power and if Holloway can evade that seminal blow he will likely be leading the dance here. Holloway’s volume will not dwindle even opposing this lethal boxing. He has averaged 200 significant strikes landed over his previous six appearances. Similar to the co-main event, I expect the underdog to win late here if the favorite cannot finish early. And New. Max Holloway by Decision
- Nick: Illia Topuria comes into this fight with a lot of momentum, undefeated at 15-0, and most recently securing the UFC Featherweight Title with a KO of Alexander Volkanovski back in February. He is an aggressive striker who packs a lot of power in his punches. He throws extremely fast combinations and his overall explosiveness has catapulted him into the pound-for-pound rankings as one of the best fighters in the world. Topuria has also shown a solid understanding of both wrestling and BJJ. Topuria is a black belt in BJJ with eight of his fifteen wins coming via submission. Max Holloway has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to mostly stand and trade here as he looks to build on an already outstanding legacy. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. He has secured wins in five of his last six fights, most recently moving up a weight class to capture the BMF Title via KO of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300. At this price, there does seem to be value on Holloway as the underdog. However, Topuria is going to have a considerable speed and power advantage on the feet here. Additionally, if Topuria is having trouble on the feet, there’s a good chance he can mix in his grappling and win this fight on the ground. This should be competitive, but I expect Topuria to retain his title in a narrow but clear decision. And Still. Illia Topuria by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com