UFC Fight Night Paris: Moicano vs Saint Denis – 9.28.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Paris: Moicano vs Saint Denis. This is shaping up to be an exciting event with a plethora of French talent on display. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 235-139-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 225-149-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-27-2024 at 7pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST
Bolaji Oki -190 vs Chris Duncan +155
- Anthony: The card today opens with lightweights Chris Duncan and Bolaji Oki. This is a great piece of matchmaking as both men look to establish more sustained success. Duncan is one of the tougher opponents Oki has faced although he has met little resistance. Oki is confident with his hands and fluid in regards to his footwork. For such a strong and powerful man it is impressive to see Oki stringing together combinations and even showing off some good head movement. Durability and grit certainly seem to be his in this matchup against Duncan. While these two are exchanging blows on the feet, Duncan will likely be hurt first whether to the head or the body. Duncan would be wise to attempt grappling here, utilizing his wrestling and putting Oki on the defensive as soon as possible. I consider Duncan a live dog thanks to that grappling threat, but so far Oki’s takedown defense has looked good enough to me. Duncan will be bloodied early here if not successful getting Oki to the mat. Bolaji Oki by Round Two KO
- Nick: Bolaji Oki is 8-1 professionally with five of those wins coming via KO. He hasn’t lost a fight since his professional debut back in 2018. He’s extremely athletic, with explosive power and strength. He prefers to stand and strike and he’s shown a high-level understanding of mixing body shots into his combinations. Oki is coming off a solid win in his UFC debut, which came via decision over Timmy Cuamba. His cardio and durability seemed to have improved considerably in that match-up. He’s still very raw in his abilities, but there is no denying his outstanding strength and athleticism. Chris Duncan has one-shot KO power on the feet, but his aggressive style means that he is often open to being countered in exchanges. Duncan is 11-2 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Having recently shifted camps to American Top Team, it’s encouraging to see Duncan fighting with more of an intelligent game plan and leaning more on his wrestling lately. This is especially important given the questions surrounding his durability. Duncan is coming off an ugly submission loss to a tough out in Manuel Torres. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here, but against such an explosive opponent he’s going to need to be defensively sound to pull off an upset. The line feels wide in this one, but I do expect Oki can find Duncan’s chin at some point. Bolaji Oki by Round Two KO
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -210 vs Nora Cornolle +170
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Nora Cornolle and Jacqueline Cavalcanti. It was only a month ago that Cavalcanti defeated Josiane Nunes by decision. Thus far Cavalcanti has really fought well in the UFC and I expect her to realize more success today. Her high volume striking tends to overwhelm opponents in the early going, for Nunes it was an issue of ever matching the offensive output that was in her face. Cornolle is not one to engage for very long in the pocket and I think it will be tough for her to win minutes or rounds in this one. Faceoffs gave me further confidence in Cavalcanti and given her recent showings I am happy to bet on her here. Cornolle seems to be getting a start on mixed martial arts too late. At 34, her speed is waning and she has not showcased much at all in terms of her muay thai skills. Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision
- Nick: This fight is actually a rematch of a fight that took place back in 2021, in which Jacqueline Calvalcanti won via decision. Cornolle is 8-1 professionally, having spent most of her professional career fighting for UAE Warriors. She is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off an impressive upset win via KO over a decent prospect in Melissa Mullins. Cornolle is primarily a striker who has surprising power for her frame. She fights out of a Muay Thai style stance, and generally does a decent job putting together high volume combinations. Cornolle was originally scheduled to take on an extremely tough opponent in Germaine De Randamie here, but she’s now set to take on Jaqueline Cavalcanti as De Randamie was forced to pull out of the fight due to injury. Cavalcanti is 7-1 professionally, with three of those six wins coming via KO. She’s an aggressive striker who does a good job closing distance. While she has found a lot of success on the feet, it has to be noted that she’ll be the better grappler in this match-up. Cavalcanti is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a solid decision win over Josiane Nunes. In both of her UFC wins, we saw her secure takedowns to neutralize her opponents and control them on the mat. Cavalcanti can be inconsistent at times, but she feels like the rightful favorite here. She’s the better technical striker, and likely the better grappler in this match-up as well. Cornolle is better than I expected when she joined the promotion, but I expect she’ll be outclassed in this matchup. Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Decision
Victor Altamirano -130 vs Daniel Barez +110
- Anthony: Next is a fun matchup at flyweight between Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez. Altamirano is a consistent boxer, landing on average 4.55 strikes per minute. He is effective from both stances and excellent when his hands start to get going, stringing together very clean combinations. Altamirano does not hit quite as hard as Barez but he is much quicker and better skilled. He has shown a massive deficiency in terms of defending takedowns but Altamirano does generally stay safe while grappling and often fights his way back to the feet. Barez is likely to be shooting for takedowns here and looking to submit Altamirano. I expect this fight to play out even in the beginning with Barez threatening that early finish. He will either be successful in submitting Altamirano or we will see the Mexican fighter win out in rounds two and three. Since this fight is favored to go the full distance my pick will be Altamirano. It is also worth noting that this week he has shifted from underdog to slight betting favorite. Victor Altamirano by Decision
- Nick: Daniel Barez is 16-6 professionally, with his last loss coming in his UFC debut back in July of 2023. He fell via submission in that fight, but it came against an extremely strong and gifted BJJ player in Jake Filho. Barez is relatively well rounded, with seven professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s quick in and out of breaks, he has a solid understanding of footwork, and his ability to mix in his grappling keeps his opponents guessing in striking exchanges. He has effective takedown entries both in open space and up against the cage, but he does seem to struggle at times in keeping his opponents grounded. Altamirano has a solid body-lock takedown and decent BJJ, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself in striking exchanges and leaves himself open to be countered. Barez is the stronger and more potent finisher in this match-up, and the better technical striker by a decent margin. That being said, Altamirano should have a considerable cardio and durability advantage. As long as he stays safe early, I expect Altamirano to pull away as this fight wears on. Victor Altamirano by Decision
Ailin Perez -210 vs Daria Zhelezniakova +170
- Anthony: This is a bout at women’s bantamweight between Ailin Perez and Daria Zhelezniakova. It appears that Perez had a tough cut after weighing in a half pound over. Perez will need to score takedowns here to convincingly beat Zhelezniakova. I figure she will meet little resistance in this fight thanks to her excellent chain wrestling and top pressure. We have previously seen Perez score 10 of 15 takedowns in a fight against Ashlee Evans-Smith. I am hopeful that we see a similar performance here against an opponent that lacks defensive skills. It will be a theme of the evening tonight, French fighters looking to strike and getting taken down. Perez has a ranking in this division while Zhelezniakova makes her promotional debut here. Zhelezniakova may draw favor from the crowd but this seems like a terrible matchup for her. I do not expect Perez to allow any room for Zhelezniakova to showcase her skill set. Ailin Perez by Decision
- Nick: Ailin Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. In her most recent fights, she showed her grappling is improving at a rapid rate. She is coming off three consecutive wins via decision, all under the UFC banner, and she carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Daria Zhelezniakova is 28-years old and 8-1 professionally, coming off a solid win in her UFC debut via decision over Montserrat Rendon. Five of Zheleznyakova’s wins have come by knockout. She’s a powerful striker with a decent understanding of footwork. She does her best work striking at distance and she’s capable of working her way back to her feet if she’s grounded against lower level grapplers. Perez missed weight by half a pound and almost fell over on the scale. However, it appears she recovered well following her rehydration. I expect her to lean on her grappling here on her way to another convincing decision win. Ailin Perez by Decision
Taylor Lapilus -340 vs Vince Morales +270
- Anthony: This is a matchup at men’s featherweight between Vince Morales and Taylor Lapilus. It seemed unlikely that Morales would get another shot in the UFC but here he is to step in on short notice and face Lapilus in enemy territory. Since losing both appearances in 2022, Morales has earned five wins and four stoppages outside of the promotion. He is a capable wrestler and confident in his boxing offense. Lapilus should have the edge over Morales while these two are striking. Lapilus is a talented striker with good weapons from range and an active jab. He will trade plenty of leg kicks with Morales today in hopes of chopping him down. I trust Lapilus given his poise and steady pacing once his fights begin. He can stuff most of Morales’ takedowns, defending 78 percent of his opponent’s attempts. Lapilus will take over here, benefiting from a full training camp instead of the abbreviated camp for Morales. Lapilus will likely keep his distance and easily win rounds on the judge’s scorecards. Taylor Lapilus by Decision
- Nick: Taylor Lapilus is a dynamic striker who throws as many kicks as he does punches. He’s effective at range and in the clinch. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling isn’t great, but continues to improve. He has excellent cardio and he’s shown he can carry his power into later rounds. Vince Morales will be returning to the UFC here, after he was previously cut from the roster back in 2022. Since then he has strung together five consecutive wins on the regional scene, most recently securing an impressive submission win over a tough out in Hunter Azure. Morales is relatively well rounded with seven wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He can be hittable in exchanges and his takedown defense is mostly mediocre, but he’s dangerous everywhere offensively and his durability allows him to find success in the later rounds in most of his fights. Morales is better than the price on him suggests, but Lapilus should be able to stay a step ahead in this one. He’s the better technical striker and he’s proven difficult to take down. Taylor Lapilus by Decision
Ludovit Klein -1100 vs Roosevelt Roberts +700
- Anthony: This is a fight between Ludovit Klein and Roosevelt Roberts. I am a big fan of Klein and I think most lightweights also respect him for his precision striking and long highlight reel. Nikolas Motta was scheduled to face Klein here, perhaps withdrawing afraid to share the octagon. Roberts steps in on short notice in what is clearly a brutal matchup for him. A return to the promotion last year saw Roberts lose once again in quick order. He has very poor defensive awareness and Roberts is often very easy to hurt. Klein is a tactician on the feet with some of the division’s best kickboxing. I am expecting a brutal knockout here after Klein chops away at Roberts. Klein is short but from the southpaw stance he generates massive power in his body kicks. Klein will also throw low kicks to great effect here against a lengthy opponent like Roberts. I am very confident predicting a finish win for Klein in this fight today. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ludovit Klein is well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He has a solid grappling base, and the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots, and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, but there is no denying he’s most content to stand and exchange on the feet. Klein is on a three fight win-streak coming into this match-up, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2021. Roosevelt Roberts is taking this fight on short notice, after Nikolas Motta was forced to pull out due to injury. Roberts is a decent wrestler with solid striking ability on the feet, but his lack of Fight IQ and general overconfidence have seemingly been holding him back. Roberts has had issues with superior grapplers, and I certainly feel Klein falls into that category. Additionally, Klein’s kicks should help him close distance against the lengthy Roberts and when it comes to general technical ability on the feet, Klein should have a considerable advantage. The line has gotten a bit wide in this one, but Klein is clearly the pick. Ludovit Klein by Round One KO
Oumar Sy -600 vs Da Woon Jung +425
- Anthony: Next will be light heavyweights Oumar Sy and Da Woon Jung. Oumar Sy is a very intriguing prospect fighting for the Bulgarian Top Team. The undefeated fighter enters this bout a perfect 10-0. Sy is one of the few French who does very well grappling offensively. Sy is very strong and successful converting takedowns at this weight where position is such a key. Jung has shown some deficiencies in terms of his own grappling and I could see Sy taking advantage here. I think Jung will struggle to keep space with Sy and prevent him from finding mat returns. Jung has not looked himself at all lately, losing all three of his previous matches. This seems like a favorable booking for a fighter that the UFC hopes to build. I was very impressed by him in the debut this past May. He likely wins by ground and pound or submission here once Jung decides he has had enough. Oumar Sy by Round Two KO
- Nick: Oumar Sy is 10-0 professionally, and 28 years-old. He’s relatively well-rounded with four of his professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He’s coming off a win in his UFC debut, which came via submission in the first round over Tuco Tukkos. Tukkos is a low level opponent by UFC standards, but Sy showed extreme athleticism as well as smooth and aggressive BJJ once he was able to take the fight to the mat. Sy has been wildly impressive, but he really hasn’t fought a high level of opponent. He has primarily fought for a regional promotion in France called King of Fighting, and he’ll be in front of his home crowd here as he takes a step up in level of competition. Jung is a powerful striker, but he doesn’t throw much volume. We’ve recently seen him lean more on his grappling abilities, but his takedown entries are mostly predictable and he struggles to take his opponents down in open space. Jung is coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career, and he’s likely to be cut from the promotion if he can’t pull off the upset in this spot. He’s the more experienced fighter in this match-up, but he’s somewhat slow and plodding on the feet which is likely going to be a major issue for him here against a physical specimen in Sy. Additionally, Sy is the more dangerous BJJ player if this fight hits the mat. Whether standing or on the ground, I see the favorite securing a finish in this one. Oumar Sy by Round Two Submission
Ivan Erslan -110 vs Ion Cutelaba -110
- Anthony: The featured prelim comes at light heavyweight between Ivan Erslan and Ion Cutelaba. It is always difficult to predict a volatile fighter like Cutelaba who starts his fights fired out of a cannon. He is an enigma, violently finishing some opponents and becoming easy prey for others. Erslan is another brawler who has seen a lot of stoppages lately. I must say his boxing is much tighter than Cutelaba and it seems likely he will find more sustained success. Both men though possess clear knockout power and a willingness to throw. Cutelaba’s chin has been more suspect than Erslan’s but the Croatian is not competing against the same level of competition. This feels like a coin flip and whoever wins will be the man that connects with an overhand first. Erslan fights conventionally while Cutelaba is primarily a southpaw. Cutelaba can also score takedowns and search for a finish on the ground here. His wrestling is effective but Cutelaba always sinks when forced to grapple more than one round. Hopefully this bout produces a knockout for the highlight reel very early on. Ivan Erslan by Round One KO
- Nick: Ivan Erslan will be making his UFC debut here, having spent most of his career fighting for a highly-regarded regional promotion via KSW in Poland. Erslan is an explosive striker with true KO power. He’s extremely aggressive, which can be concerning at times as he’s more than willing to sacrifice defense for offense. Ion Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. Cutelaba is just 1-4 in his last five fights, and he’s another fighter that could be competing to hold onto their roster spot. This is a volatile match-up as both of these fighters are potent finishers. Cutelaba has a grappling advantage here, but his terrible cardio likely means this fight takes place on the feet. This is an extremely volatile matchup, I’ll side with the slight value on the underdog. Ivan Erslan by Round One KO
Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST
Fares Ziam -130 vs Matt Frevola +110
- Anthony: Opening the main card are lightweights Matt Frevola and Fares Ziam. The fight is near pick em for good reason as we are in for a good tilt between opposing styles. Ziam is a skilled kickboxer who fights behind his length at 6’1 and frustrates opponents. It will be difficult for Frevola to overcome a four-inch reach deficit and evade Ziam’s very active jab. Ziam will trust his kickboxing here, slowly chipping away at Frevola and hoping to win via points. Ziam’s five victories in the promotion have all come by decision. On the other hand, Frevola has not gone more than five minutes in any of his previous five fights. He is a fighter that puts his foot on the gas immediately and crashes distance in hopes of an early finish. Frevola will bob and weave his way into range here very early on. We will either see Frevola find that quick stoppage or struggle to win minutes in a snoozer. He could look to implement some wrestling against Ziam although it may be for naught. Ziam’s 67 percent takedown defense is better than most of the French. This fight is appropriately lined near even, but I certainly will be betting Frevola as the plus money side. Matt Frevola by Round One KO
- Nick: Frevola is well-rounded, but his durability can be considered a weakness as he was KO’d in three of his four professional losses. He has been out of action since back in November of 2023, after he was brutally KO’d by card headliner Benoit St. Denis. That being said, St. Denis is widely regarded as one of the more dangerous young prospects in the division. Frevola has done well against most unranked opponents at lightweight, and that’s exactly what he’ll be seeing here against Fares Ziam. Fares Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 15-4 professionally, coming off consecutive wins over Claudio Pulees, Jai Herbert and Michal Figlak. While he doesn’t carry much power on the feet, he puts out solid volume and does an excellent job forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling ability is somewhat questionable, but it seems to be a part of his game he’s been focusing on improving. Frevola’s durability can cost him at times, but Ziam isn’t a potent finisher. I expect Frevola to land the more significant strikes on the feet here, and he is the much better grappler if he needs to fall back on that part of his game. Matt Frevola by Round Two Submission
Morgan Charriere -700 vs Gabriel Miranda +500
- Anthony: This is a featherweight bout between Morgan Charriere and Gabriel Miranda. Charriere is coming off a Fight of the Night showing against Chepe Mariscal in his last bout. That was a split decision that went the way of Marsical although Charriere certainly had himself an argument to win. I find it very hard to trust Charriere here facing a very skilled opponent. Miranda will be no match for Charriere on the feet but his lethal grappling makes him a live underdog. I would not be too surprised seeing Miranda get his hands on Charriere and at least testing his defenses. However, Charriere has already faced much tougher tests than this and some may see the price tag as warranted. He is a very good martial artist with a wealth of cage time. Striking comes naturally to Charriere while Miranda very much struggles to string together two punches. Both men are extremely experienced but the better work has always been done by Charriere. This is a favorable draw for The Last Pirate fighting at home in Paris once again. Morgan Charriere by Round Two KO
- Nick: Morgan Charriere is 19-10-1 professionally, and widely regarded as one of the better prospects to come out of France. Charriere is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and a crisp and compact striking style. Eleven of his nineteen wins have come via KO, but he frequently looks to grapple if he feels he has that advantage over his opponent. He’s coming off a narrow and controversial decision loss to a tough out in Chepe Mariscal, but Mariscal is making a push for the rankings so it is tough to get too hard on him for that loss. Gabriel Miranda has dangerous BJJ, solid cardio, and he’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. He’s coming off a solid win via submission over Shane Young, and he’s now 1-1 in the UFC. He is 17-6 professionally, with sixteen of those seventeen wins coming via submission. Charriere hasn’t been submitted since 2015 and his defensive grappling has become more a strength for him than a weakness. The line feels absolutely ridiculous here, but I expect the favorite to secure the win. Morgan Charriere by Round Two KO
Bryan Battle -160 vs Kevin Jousset +135
- Anthony: This is a great welterweight fight between Kevin Jousset and Bryan Battle. Since emerging victorious on The Ultimate Fighter, Battle has found great success in the UFC winning and doing so convincingly. Battle was on his way to another victory in his last fight against Ange Loosa before an eye poke ended the action prematurely. Battle does not come from a striking background and yet he always tends to find success in stand up fights. His only losses are against opponents that engage in wrestling. This is another matchup that will favor him. Jousset has impressed me with rather crisp kickboxing and snappy attacks from range. He seems like a better conditioned athlete overall and while we have yet to see Jousset earn impressive wins, I am expecting a solid run from him in the promotion. His high volume striking will yield very fun fights as long as he, like Battle, avoids skilled grapplers. I would not be surprised to see Jousset the one shooting for takedowns here this evening. He has better technical striking when compared to Battle but his defense is much worse. Battle also has much more natural power than Jousset who relies on more than one punch to end his fights. This will be a very close matchup that likely goes to the scorecards. Bryan Battle by Decision
- Nick: Bryan Battle is a well-rounded fighter who continues to make dramatic improvements in all facets of his game. Battle does well striking at range. He’s a decent counter-grappler with advanced BJJ, but his overall takedown defense seems suspect at best. He is certainly most content to stand and trade at range on the feet, but he works well in the clinch and he does have sneaky BJJ if he finds himself grounded. Battle is coming off a fight that resulted in a ‘No Contest’ against Ange Loosa, a fight he was dominating in before Loosa quit due to an inadvertent eye poke. Prior to that he had recorded back-to-back wins via finish, and he seems to have elevated his game ever since he started cutting down to welterweight. Kevin Jousset is a former HEX Welterweight and Middleweight Champion, and a highly regarded prospect training out of City Kickboxing. He prefers to stand and exchange on his feet. He’s a decent grappler, but most of his success has come through striking at range and then mixing in elbows when closing distance. He has excellent footwork and seems to time counters better than a large percentage of the division. Jousset is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off a career best win via decision over Kenan Song. At 31 years old it does seem he’s still making considerable improvements from fight to fight. These are two similar fighters, but I prefer the Battle side as he is the more violent of the two. Jousset is certainly on the level in terms of technical ability here, but I see Battle’s causing more damage and potentially finding a late finish. Bryan Battle by Round Three KO
Joanderson Brito -340 vs William Gomis +270
- Anthony: This should be a great matchup at featherweight between William Gomis and Joanderson Brito. Faceoffs were heated on Friday with Brito violently tugging on Gomis’ arm. He is a wild fighter, possessing great skills to finish and boasting a win streak of five. I was very impressed by Brito in recent victories against Jonathan Pearce and Jack Shore. He has proven capable of outgrappling highly technical wrestlers while Gomis is not good on the mat at all. Brito has a clear grappling advantage. Gomis could win by making this a boring fight. He is the better technical kickboxer when comparing his skills to Brito’s. This fight will see Gomis land a healthy number of front kicks and lower body attacks. Brito has power but I expect him to struggle if this is a pure striking match. Gomis has shown some deficiencies in terms of his wrestling and grappling awareness. Brito should be able to put Gomis into tough positions on the mat if successful securing his takedown. The longer that this bout goes, the more I would favor Gomis as he scores with more consistency and paces his offense better than Brito. Joanderson Brito by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Joanderson Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. He throws explosive strikes, he has powerful takedown entries, and dangerous BJJ as well. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to overwhelm many of his opponents, but it does make him tough to rely on if he can’t secure an early finish. He’s coming off an impressive Doctor Stoppage TKO win over a formerly ranked opponent in Jack Shore, and prior to that he secured a comeback win over a tough out in Jonathan Pearce. Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges, and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. Gomis is on an eleven-fight win streak, coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner. He has shown excellent cardio and overall durability, and at 27-years old he continues to make improvements in all facets of his game. This fight likely plays out closer than the line suggests, but I see Brito having the bigger moments and potentially finishing Gomis. This fight should be competitive on the feet, but Brito’s grappling advantage is likely too much for Gomis to handle. Joanderson Brito by Round One Submission
Nassourdine Imavov -200 vs Brendan Allen +160
- Anthony: The co-main event is a ranked matchup at middleweight between Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov. It is fun watching Imavov fight with his high land rate and very active feet. He does exceptionally well controlling range in his fights and landing combinations with all of his 6’3” frame. Watch for Imavov to get his jab going early here and establish dominance over Allen while at boxing range. Allen can taste contention with another win here, bringing his current streak to eight in a row. We have seen Allen make huge improvements to his offensive striking, allowing for this hot streak to materialize. Takedowns are coming easier to him and with some of the division’s best grappling I like his chances as the betting underdog tonight. I consider Imavov’s grappling a bit underrated but it still does not hold up at all when compared to Allen and his black belt in jiu jitsu. Prolonged exchanges here on the mat will likely result in Allen securing a dominant position on Imavov’s back. Clearly Imavov can handle the world’s top middleweights but this particular matchup seems like a bad stylistic draw. I am not going to go against Allen on this win streak, especially getting dog odds. He is a good bet at +160 in a fight scheduled for only three rounds. Brendan Allen by Decision
- Nick: Nassourdine Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. Imavov is coming off a career-best win, a dominant performance in which he finished Jared Cannonier. Fourteen of Brendan Allen’s twenty-four professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he has made major strides in that area ever since he shifted to an excellent camp in Kill Cliff FC. He’s now on a seven-fight winning streak, most recently securing a solid decision win over Chris Curtis. The line feels wide here as Allen is certainly the better grappler in this match-up. That being said, I do see Imavov as the rightful favorite. He’s the better striker, he has solid takedown defense, and he’s going to be fighting in front of his home crowd here. Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Benoit Saint Denis -300 vs Renato Moicano +240
- Anthony: The main event is a fight between Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis at lightweight. This is a massive fight in the career of Saint Denis who headlines here coming off a loss at UFC 299. The God of War represents France and clearly has the skills needed to contend. He was favored to beat Dustin Poirier in their meeting last spring and early moments seemed to indicate Benoit would extend his win streak. However, Poirier was able to rally and hurt Saint Denis who fatigued early in round two. I am interested to see how he paces himself here again scheduled for a five round contest. Moicano is very rarely a front runner, instead battling through adversity to win many of his fights. While his resume has more quality opponents, Moicano has come up short on many occasions against the best of the best. Saint Denis has all of the tools to be a champion at this weight, it is just a matter of putting things together. I expect a more calculated approach from The God of War here, perhaps not so urgently chasing the finish as it begins to materialize. Saint Denis has very powerful striking and offensive pressure that Moicano will struggle to combat. Moicano will make this fight more even by implementing his grappling and rolling on the mat where Saint Denis is very comfortable. Perhaps Moicano will be the fresher fighter in rounds four and five but it seems more likely this fight gets decided early. I think Moicano will begin to fall apart once Saint Denis moves forward and unloads on him. While both men are lightweights, Moicano is thinner and seemingly drained from a long fight week. He’s been finished four times before. Benoit Saint Denis by Round Two KO
- Nick: Benoit Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. Prior to his loss to Dustin Poirier, which came in his most recent fight back in March, he had strung together five straight wins under the UFC banner, and he enters this fight with an impressive 13-2 record professionally. On the feet, he works well behind a powerful body kick. He is an aggressive striker who has shown excellent durability, and his excellent cardio generally supports his torrid pace. His gas tank did fail him his last time out, but he had a bad staph infection and probably shouldn’t have been in there against an opponent on the level of Poirier. Renato Moicano is an advanced BJJ black belt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. Moicano will be dangerous if this fight hits the mat, but I’m not confident in his durability in the earlier rounds. Saint Denis almost always comes out aggressive, and Moicano’s durability has been a weakness for him at times – as tough as he is. If Moicano can extend this fight he’ll be live for the upset, but it seems more likely we see him finished before he can. Saint Denis is the rightful favorite here, as the more powerful and aggressive striker in front of his home crowd. Benoit Saint Denis by Round Two KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com