UFC Vegas 66 Predictions & Preview

UFC Vegas 66: Cannonier vs Strickland – 12.17.2022 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 66: Cannonier vs Strickland. Tonight we will be enjoying the final UFC card of the calendar year. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 314-180-3 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 316-178-3 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 12-16-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Sergey Morozov -310 vs Journey Newson +250

Anthony: The card begins with a bantamweight fight between Sergey Morozov and Journey Newson. I was surprised to see Newson get the win over Fernie Garcia in his last fight, returning from a two year hiatus. The performance was not that stellar, but he was able to control Garcia and sway the judge’s decision. Morozov will be a tougher test given his grappling aptitude. If anybody is successfully converting takedown attempts today it will be the Kazakh. I also see Moroz finding success against the side of the cage if he does not elect to drop levels and finish his shots. Newson has some good kicks but I would categorize his overall striking as mediocre. I think it is for good reason he is a sizable underdog. I just hesitate betting on Morozov here as it is likely a fight that does go a full fifteen minutes. Sergey Morozov by Decision
Nick: Morozov is a powerful counter-striker. He does an excellent job reading the timing of his opponents and using those reads to set up effective strikes and combinations. When he’s leading striking exchanges, he does a good job working in powerful body kicks. He’s comfortable on the feet, but it’s actually his wrestling and grappling abilities that stand out about him when you watch him on film. He has solid takedown entries and he does an excellent job staying active once he gets his opponents to the ground. He has very clean transitions and he does a good job staying heavy in scrambles. Newson has power in his strikes and decent technical ability at range, but he is sometimes too tentative as he waits for fights to come to him. He has a BJJ black belt, but most of his fights take place at striking range. Newson is decent everywhere, but Morozov seems to be on another level. I see Morozov as the rightful favorite here, he should outclass Newson no matter where this fight goes. Sergey Morozov by Decision

Manel Kape -250 vs David Dvorak +200

Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Manel Kape and David Dvorak. Kape is a large favorite here coming off two straight wins by first round knockout. Both of those fights saw him on the defensive for the first four minutes prior to flipping the script and starching both Ode Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. I would not be surprised to see a similar style of fight play out here as he faces a higher volume striker in Dvorak. Kape has ungodly power for a 125 pound man making him a threat to end any fight by connecting just once. He has very good technical kickboxing and muay thai skills but it can sometimes be overshadowed by a hesitancy to unload attacks. I get the sense Dvorak will be bringing the fight to him and ultimately leaving Kape an opening to capitalize and end things early. He is not one to wrestle with great effect but Dvorak could also wind up shooting for takedowns here if he is getting picked apart upright. Kape will not struggle to keep his feet as he defends 80 percent of shots on him and throws lethal knees that deter opponents from lowering their head. I seriously doubt this one goes a full three rounds. Manel Kape by Round Two KO
Nick: We have a fun scrap here between two interesting prospects at flyweight. Dvorak is well-rounded. His striking seems to improve every time we see him fight and he’s more than content to grind on his opponents, utilizing his grappling to control position. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to a rising contender in Matheus Nicolau, but prior to that he hadn’t dropped a fight since May of 2012. Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork he uses well to set up his power shots. I feel that Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average at best, but his knockout power alone makes him a threat to anyone in the division. Kape is coming off back-to-back impressive KOs over Ode Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He hasn’t fought in over a year, but there is no denying he carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Dvorak can look like a live underdog here if he can make this fight ugly. However, it seems more likely that Kape will keep this fight at striking range where his power advantage should shine through. Manel Kape by Round Two KO

Rinat Fakhretdinov -160 vs Bryan Battle +130

Anthony: This should be a fun bout at welterweight between Bryan Battle and Rinat Fakhretdinov. It is a bout made on short notice here with Battle stepping in for the debutant left without an opponent. Fakhretdinov got onto the UFC radar with a win on Dana White’s Lookin’ For a Fight. He beat Eric Spicely at an even the start of last year, earning him a shot in the promotion. Fakhretdinov is a very talented fighter with good wrestling and significant combat experience. However, there are some glaring holes in his resume that make me hesitant to back him here as the favorite. Beating Spicely and Andreas Michailidis may be hard, but neither are what I consider elite level fighters. Battle has faced better competition as of late and continues to develop into a legitimate contender. While I like the move to 170 pounds for him, I could see Battle blanketed by his opponent’s wrestling approach if takedowns do pile up today. However, he is the much better striker than Fakhretdinov and I like his chances of pulling away here as the fight goes late. Battle has not disappointed since winning The Ultimate Fighter and I am sure his experience on the show has him ready to step into the cage with little to no notice. He is a very live underdog. Bryan Battle by Round Three Submission
Nick: Bryan Battle will be taking this fight on short notice, against an interesting prospect in Rinat Fakhretdinov. Primarily a grappler, it’s a bit surprising to see eleven of Fakhretdinov’s twenty professional wins have come via KO. He has an impressive record at 21-2, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against a high level of competition. He has a solid wrestling base and his strikes are powerful, but he often leaves himself open to counters in exchanges and some of his takedown entries could cost him as he starts fighting better competition. He is coming off a solid win in his UFC debut over Andreas Michailidis. A fight in which he was mostly dominant, but also a fight in which it was expected he’d find a finish against one of the lower-level welterweights on the roster. Bryan Battle is a well-rounded fighter who continues to make dramatic improvements in all facets of his game. He’s coming off an impressive head kick win over Takashi Sato, which came in his first UFC fight at 170 pounds. Battle does well striking at range. He’s a decent counter-grappler with advanced BJJ, but his overall takedown defense seems suspect at best. He is certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet, and against a talented grappler like Fakhretdinov I expect that will once again be his game plan here. This is a close fight, especially given the fact Battle is taking it on short notice. However, I do see Battle as the value side. This is a low confidence play, but I do expect Battle to keep things standing just long enough to ultimately find a finish. Bryan Battle by Round Three KO

Rafa Garcia -155 vs Hayisaer Maheshate +125

Anthony: Next is a lightweight bout with Rafa Garcia facing Maheshate. Yesterday the only weight miss was Maheshate who came in a few pounds heavy. He is a big lightweight standing 6’0 and benefiting from a three-inch reach advantage today. I’d say there is a lot of mystery still surrounding the 23 year old, but I have bought into Maheshate after his two most recent performances. Winning the Contender Series as a +475 underdog showcased that he is not undermatched facing the best fighters in the world. The counter right he landed to starch Steve Garcia this summer also leads me to believe his ceiling could be rather high. His striking is already very sophisticated for being just 9-1. I do think Rafa Garcia provides a tough test here as the stronger man and better wrestler. Garcia may find some success boxing Maheshate, but surely hunting early takedowns and securing control is his most clear path to victory. I think this kid will fight hard to keep distance and we will likely see him be the fresher fighter in the bout’s latter half. I like his hand speed compared to that of Garcia and believe it will be the deciding factor today. Maheshate by Round Two KO
Nick: Maheshate is only 23-years old, but he already seems to be further along in his development than most of the prospects we see coming out of China. He throws powerful strikes and seems to be a competent grappler, but he really hasn’t been tested against a high level of competition. Garcia has decent offensive grappling but prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but he tends to fade in the later rounds. I expect his cardio to continue to improve as he recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team. Elevation is known for their excellent cardio as they train in the thin Colorado air, and I’m very impressed by Garcia’s decision to correct such a glaring hole in his game. This is another tough fight to call, but I’m siding with Garcia. He has a considerable experience advantage against top level competition and he should be the more effective grappler in this match-up. It should also be discouraging for Maheshate backers that he missed weight for this matchup. Rafa Garcia by Round Three Submission

Saidyokub Kakhramonov -110 vs Said Nurmagomedov -110

Anthony: This is a close bantamweight fight to call as Said Nurmagomedov faces Saidyokub Kakhramonov. It is fair to say Kakhramonov has shocked some people going 2-0 thus far in the promotion. Winning his debut against Trevin Jones was impressive but his domination of Ronnie Lawrence in July has really sold me. Clearly he has top tier wrestling if able to takedown and control a high profile grappler in the manner that he did. Nurmagomedov has the tools to make this fight very interesting in those clinch exchanges. He is a legitimate submission threat with 70 percent takedown defense and a bit of size on his opponent. His striking is far more dangerous than Kakhramonov who is not going to keep pace in a technical back and forth. I think he has a great chance of winning if he can wear down Nurmagomedov and make this fight ugly, but nothing today will come as easy as it did in his last two walks. At pick em odds there is a great argument to be made for either side but I am going to be taking Nurmagomedov. His recent wins are arguably as impressive and I see his striking being the factor that decides this bout. Said Nurmagomedov by Decision
Nick: Unlike many of the other top Russian prospects, Said Nurmagomedov is primarily a striker. He’s a talented kickboxer who throws a wide range of effective spinning attacks. He’s coming off an impressive decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade, and prior to that fight he managed to choke out Cody Stamman via guillotine just 47 seconds into the first round. Nurmagomedov is going to have a clear advantage on the feet here in terms of technical ability, but he’ll need to be careful not to get overly comfortable against a dangerous opponent in Kakhramonov. Kakhramonov looked surprisingly good in a 2018 PFL matchup with Usman Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov is the current Bellator Champion at 135. Kakhramonov had plenty of moments in that fight, showing he’s capable of competing at a very high level. He’s coming off an incredibly impressive win over Ronnie Lawrence in which he dominated the grappling exchanges. I could certainly see this fight going either way, but I’m siding with Nurmagomedov here. He’s simply been tested more extensively against top level competition. I see him as the more well-rounded fighter and the more potent finisher as well. Said Nurmagomedov by Decision

Jake Matthews -310 vs Matthew Semelsberger +240

Anthony: Next is a welterweight scrap between Matthew Semelsberger and Jake Matthews. It was a huge win for Matthews his last time out, stopping Andre Fialho by second round KO. His striking clearly improved over the course of a one-year hiatus. It was impressive watching him rally back and outstrike Fialho with his cleaner, more precise boxing. He is going to have the striking advantage once again here as he faces off with Semelsberger. More often than not we see Semelsberger looking to utilize wrestling and jiu jitsu to win fights on the mat. He is a live underdog in this spot given his size and grappling proficiency, I just don’t see him getting the job done. We often see him eat quite a few clean strikes over the course of each bout. It is also worth mentioning some of his most impressive wins have come against chinny competition; Martin Sano, Jason Witt, Richard Patishnock and the like. The Aussie fighter will likely outclass him. Jake Matthews by Decision
Nick: Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 28-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. Matthews’ striking looked outstanding in his last fight, a KO win over Andre Fialho. He was defensively sound on the feet, worked well behind his jab, and the combinations he threw were both quick and meaningful. Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights by early KO. He’s 4-2 so far in the UFC, coming off a hard fought decision loss to a gritty vet in Alex Morono. He does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat and while there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. Semelsberger has continued to show improvements everywhere. However, Matthews is the more technically sound fighter no matter where this one goes. I see him as the better grappler and the better overall striker as well. Jake Matthews by Round Two KO

Cheyanne Vlismas -190 vs Cory McKenna +155

Anthony: Closing the prelims are strawweights Cory McKenna and Cheyanne Vlismas. Both fighters are 7-2 and I am expecting to see a rather competitive match. Vlismas has made big strides since joining the UFC, particularly in further developing on the feet. She has better technical striking than McKenna and a larger frame to work from further away. When facing the young Team Alpha Male prospect, Vlismas will need to be very careful managing her range. McKenna has good top pressure and the wrestling to give someone like Vlismas quite a few problems on the mat. I’d say McKenna has the better resume since the start of 2020 but a less developed skillset. Vlismas should appear to be the better athlete on the feet but I am not confident enough to bet her here today. Cheyanne Vlismas by Decision
Nick: McKenna has a very strong wrestling base and does a good job finding submissions against inferior grapplers. She’s still a bit early in her career development, but she’s already very strong for her age and capable of scoring takedowns from a variety of positions. Her striking continues to improve, but she’s hittable in exchanges and she doesn’t really throw with much power or speed. Cheyanne Vlismas is a highly regarded prospect. She has impressive footwork on the feet, decent head movement and an effective high-volume striking style. The line does feel a bit wide here, but I see Vlysmas as the rightful favorite. She should be athletic enough to keep this fight on the feet where she’ll outclass McKenna by a considerable margin. Cheyanne Vlismas by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Michal Oleksiejczuk -275 vs Cody Brundage +215

Anthony: The main card opens with this middleweight fight between Cody Brundage and Michael Oleksiejczuk. I do not think very highly of these two guys and it surprised me either is favored at nearly three to one. Brundage is not getting any love at the betting window despite winning by finish in his two bouts this year. I found the Tresean Gore knockout very impressive, but it is fair to say this is the toughest test to date for Cody. He will be desperately looking for a takedown here as his advantage is solely realized on the mat. Oleksiejczuk is the better striker and his hands have looked incredible as of late. Sure he has been outclassed by the likes of Dustin Jacoby, but has no problem getting through lower level foes. I think on the feet he will hold a clear advantage over Brundage in terms of volume and power. I trust him to keep this fight standing until a finish materializes. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round Two KO
Nick: Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He’s going to have a technical wrestling advantage here, but he’s going to be careful managing his gas tank as his cardio seems to deplete fairly quickly if he’s grappling. Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but there’s no denying he’s the more dangerous and explosive fighter in this match-up. I expect Oleksiejczuk to mostly keep this one standing where he should significantly outclass Brundage. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round One KO

Drew Dober -155 vs Bobby Green +125

Anthony: Next is a lightweight fight between Drew Dober and Bobby Green. This should be a Fight of the Night contender as the two veteran strikers square off. Dober has evolved as a fighter and put together his two best performances in his previous two fights. He is always game for an ugly scrap as was the case facing a streaking Terrance McKinney. Dober can however fight very well on the outside too. His main power threat is the overhand left but Dober does march forward with a varying attack and good distribution of strikes to the body and head. He is great in the fights that look ‘pretty’, and I see both men tonight landing crisp combinations. I really view this bout as a coin flip despite the tear Dober has been on. Green benefits from a height and reach advantage. He is accustomed to fighting to decisions and I believe he keeps a steadier pace than Dober over the course of fifteen minutes here. He does better rolling with punches and staying aware defensively. I like his chances in a primarily standup affair after seeing him go toe to toe with better strikers like Rafael Fiziev and Nasrat Haqparast. Bobby Green by Decision
Nick: This is a Fight of the Night candidate and easily one of the more intriguing fights we have on this card. Drew Dober has improved dramatically over his last few fights. He throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing seems better than ever and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. Dober’s greatest weakness is his defensive grappling ability. While he continues to show improvements on the mat, his opponent in this match-up should be entirely content to stand and trade with him. Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by striking his opponents at boxing range. Green is a quality boxer, but he tends to keep his hands down a lot more often than he should. Dober is one of the more powerful strikers he’s faced recently, so he’ll have to be careful not to get overly comfortable in exchanges. Dober is becoming known for his excellent chin and durability, and I expect that to be the difference in this match-up. I expect Green to keep things close on the feet, but I expect Dober to land the more impactful shots. It’s tough to trust the judges lately, but that should be enough for him to squeak out a close decision. Drew Dober by Decision

Julian Erosa -175 vs Alex Caceres +140

Anthony: Next up is a fight at featherweight between Alex Caceres and Julian Erosa. I am expecting a fun matchup here with these men sharing a few dozen walks to the UFC octagon. Both enter going 5-1 in their previous six and gaining valuable experience as these matchups are becoming tougher. Erosa is more consistent than Caceres, always fighting hard and moving forward to claw his way to wins. He lands more than six significant strikes per minute and throws a wide arsenal of attacks that tend to overwhelm opponents. Erosa has also mixed in grappling to great effect, landing seven combined takedowns in his previous three fights. He will likely be content to stand and trade with Caceres who is slower and more precision oriented than him when it comes to kickboxing exchanges. I do believe Erosa to be justified as the favorite here given his numerous paths to a victory. The only way I see Caceres winning this fight would be by accruing time on the back of Erosa. His distance striking will not be enough to get the job done. Julian Erosa by Decision
Nick: Caceres is a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. Caceres pushes a serious pace and generally does a good job keeping his opponents on their heels. His grappling continues to improve, and he’s a threat to finish via submission if he can find his opponents’ back. Julian Erosa is well rounded, with twelve professional wins by submission as well as eleven by knockout. His greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots to throw them. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as six of his ten professional losses have come via KO. He’s coming off an impressive win via decision over Hakeem Dawodu, carrying heavy momentum into this match-up as he’s on a three fight win streak and winning six of his last seven match-ups. This feels like a strong spot to back Erosa as Caceres really doesn’t have KO power. Erosa can fight in the pocket without being overly concerned with what’s coming back at him. Julian Erosa by Decision

Amir Albazi -435 vs Alessandro Costa +320

Anthony: The featured bout is a scrap at flyweight between Alessandro Costa and Amir Albazi. Costa is stepping in on short notice after Albazi had a few opponents withdraw from today’s contest. He is making his UFC debut, entering as a 12-2 professional. Costa won his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series this year, but was not awarded a contract on that night. While he has shown good hands and solid defensive grappling, Albazi is a daunting test for him. He has had three dominant showings in the promotion and I do not see him slowing down against an opponent of this caliber. He is going to be the stronger man and the far superior wrestler today. Costa will struggle to defend takedowns from Albazi and instead go fishing for submissions off of his back. I see this being one-sided traffic as Albazi pours on damage and beats him to each position thereafter. Albazi by finish is one of my favorite bets on the card. Amir Albazi by Round Two Submission
Nick: Albazi has a solid wrestling base which works well in combination with his aggressive submission style. His striking is decent, he has a powerful uppercut and does a good job mixing in body shots. He sometimes leaves himself open to counters, but he mostly strikes to set up his takedowns so he’s able to stay safe in most exchanges. Alessandro Costa will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win for the Lux Fight League Flyweight Championship. Costa is explosive with surprising power for a flyweight, but taking this fight on short notice I expect he’ll be outmatched everywhere. Nine of Albazi’s fifteen Wins have come via submission. I expect he’ll be able to ground Costa early here and then work him for a finish. Amir Albazi by Round One Submission

Arman Tsarukyan -200 vs Damir Ismagulov +160

Anthony: The co-main event is an awesome lightweight matchup between Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov. Both men have quickly climbed the ranks of this division with impressive UFC wins and bouts against elite talent. Ismagulov is 24-1 as a professional. It is by far his toughest test to date given how his style and that of Tsarukyan contrast. Ismagulov would prefer to fight here at kickboxing range where he can use his length to an advantage. He is three inches taller than Tsarukyan and benefits from a small edge in reach. Overall his striking is much cleaner and more technical than Tsarukyan who tends to throw more shots from the hip. He could completely blanket Ismagulov on the mat but I really expect a good fight from the Kazakh. He has defended 90 percent of takedowns thus far in the UFC and always makes it a priority to quickly fight out of bad positions. He could certainly outscramble Tsarukyan just as Gamrot was able in his most recent fight. I will put my money on Ismagulov as the underdog as I see it being an extremely competitive fight. Damir Ismagulov by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent match-up here between two rising contenders at lightweight. Ismagulov is a skilled striker with excellent footwork and wrestling ability. He’s extremely well-rounded and technically advanced. He throws tight combinations, works well-behind his jab, and his gas tank is seemingly endless. He’s coming off sixteen consecutive wins including five under the UFC banner. Arman Tsarukyan is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s an effective wrestler as well as a creative striker with an extremely high Fight IQ and durability. Tsarukyan has one of the better single-leg entries in the division. His scrambling is outstanding, as it was on fully on display in his UFC debut against current champion, Islam Makhachev. He is coming off a hard fought loss to Mateusz Gamrot via decision, a fight many felt he actually won. Tsarukyan is excellent in scrambles and his defensive grappling ability is amongst the best there is in the world at 155. I see Tsarukyan being the more effective striker here and winning the majority of the grappling exchanges. He should stay a step ahead of Ismagulov no matter where this one goes. Arman Tsarukyan by Decision

Sean Strickland -110 vs Jared Cannonier -110

Anthony: The last UFC fight in 2022 comes in a showdown at middleweight between Jaren Cannonier and Sean Strickland. This fight has huge stakes in terms of the division’s pecking order. Cannonier is coming off a loss to former champion Israel Adesanya, while Strickland had been knocked out by the current champion Alex Pereira on that very same night four months ago. The winner of this fight will likely be right back in a title eliminator his next time out. I think Strickland will as always focus on forward pressure and boxing here today. He can be relied upon for an easy 100 significant strikes in any bout that goes a full five rounds standing. His jab is key to keeping Cannonier on his heels and expending energy while focused on defending. The attacks of Cannonier will become far less explosive as this fight goes late. I expect that to especially be the case if Sean is successful attacking his legs ealy, as Adesanya did. However, it only takes one punch from Cannonier to change a fight and his power is the deciding factor here. I like his chances of landing given Strickland’s tendency to march forward in his fights. Strickland will probably have good timing on his strikes here early but the aggression will cost him facing another power puncher. It is hard to back Strickland given how much he spars and the fact he got back into fight camp so soon after the Poatan knockout. Cannonier will test his chin. Jared Cannonier by Round Two KO
Nick: Strickland has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering against a wide-range of strikers, and his technical boxing ability is amongst the class of the division. He has excellent footwork and head movement, which is evident by his solid 65% striking defense. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185. If he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep immediately. Cannonier is going to be live for a KO finish as long as this fight goes, but he’s not going to match Strickland on volume and I expect he struggles to close distance. I expect Strickland to work well behind his jab here, strike out of both stances as he keeps Cannonier guessing and confused. This is a very tough fight to call and one I could see going either way, but I’ll side with the volume and technical precision of Strickland over Cannonier’s pure power. Sean Strickland by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com