UFC Vegas 63 Preview & Analysis

UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs Allen – 10.29.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs Allen. After a massive pay-per-view from Abu Dhabi last weekend, we are back in Las Vegas for an exciting night of fights at the Apex. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 267-155-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 271-151-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-28-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 4:00pm EST

Christian Rodriguez -435 vs Joshua Weems +320

Anthony: Opening the card is a bantamweight matchup between Christian Rodriguez and Joshua Weems. This fight came together on very short notice as Rodriguez had originally been scheduled to face Garrett Armfield. Kudos to Weems for taking this bout but he did come in more than three pounds heavy on the scales yesterday. He is a fighter with solid regional experience and a previous appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, but I really worry about his chances here. Weems is often content to stand and brawl against his opponents and Rodriguez is not somebody he is likely to outstrike. Far superior boxing and a three-inch edge in reach indicates that Rodriguez has the advantage when these two are exchanging on the feet. Weems has the ability to thrive as a submission grappler but a stronger Rodriguez with serviceable skills of his own should stay out of any trouble. Preparation for a fight with Armfield likely has Rodriguez ready to sprawl and keep this fight on the feet. I think he makes rather easy work of Weems to start off this card. Christian Rodriguez by Round Two KO
Nick: Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan in certain matchups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. He gave a good showing of himself in his UFC debut, a hard fought loss to Jonathan Pearce. He actually won the third round on two of the three judges’ scorecards against a very tough opponent in Pearce. He outstruck Pearce, and while he was mostly controlled on the ground it was a good thing to see him score two takedowns of his own. Joshua Weems is taking this fight on one week’s notice. He’s a talented prospect coming off a solid win over prospect Mo Miller for Fury FC. This will be his UFC debut, but he’s familiar with the UFC Apex as he was KO’d by Fernie Garcia in 2021 on Contender Series. Weems has decent power and solid grappling ability, but this represents a considerable step up in competition. He missed weight for this fight, so I’m questioning how ready he’s going to be coming into this one. The line is getting a bit out of hand, but I expect Rodriguez to roll here. He should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Christian Rodriguez by Round Two Submission

Carlos Mota -175 vs Cody Durden +140

Anthony: Next is a flyweight bout with Carlos Mota taking on Cody Durden. This matchup was made on short notice as Durden was without a fight at the start of this week. He welcomes a debuting fighter in Mota who I find to be an intriguing prospect for the division. The LFA flyweight champion has a solid professional record with several impressive finishes and high output fights. He is an aggressive striker with excellent boxing and very good kicks to close distance and hurt his opponents. Mota will be the one landing more technical attacks and applying pressure here today. Durden is rather one dimensional on the feet but he does have good power for 125 pounds. The path to victory is much more clear for Durden if he elects to wrestle and spend time on top of Mota in this bout. I could see this being a close fight if Durden can perpetuate scrambles and make things a bit ugly. Both men have the ability to fight well late, but often they see bouts end early. Three of the last four wins for each have come by a first-round finish. I am siding with Mota here as I view him as the more dangerous striker of these two. Carlos Mota by Round One KO
Nick: Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but there’s nothing about his skillset that suggests he’s going to continue to climb the ranks in this division. Carlos Mota will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice. He is a highly-regarded prospect as the LFA Flyweight Champion. He is 8-1 professionally, and his only loss came to a UFC fighter in Charles Johnson. Mota has excellent footwork and outstanding power for a flyweight. Duren’s wrestling could make things tough on Mota early here, but I see Mota as the more durable fighter with the superior cardio. I expect Mota can hang in this one until he catches Mota in the later rounds. Carlos Mota by Round Three KO

Chase Hooper -300 vs Steve Garcia +230

Anthony: This should be a very fun matchup between featherweights Chase Hooper and Steve Garcia. Hooper is a grappling ace that relies on submission attempts to win fights. The jiu jitsu advantage is almost always his but striking is still very much a work in progress. He is still not a threat while standing, but it is great to already see improvements in Hooper’s striking defense and adaptability. His offense is largely composed of front kicks and side kicks to keep distance with his foes. I will roll the dice on him getting the submission win here, but this is certainly a fight that could make you sweat as a backer of either fighter. Hooper sometimes struggles to get a hold of his opponent. Most anyone stepping into the cage with Hooper has the advantage striking, but honestly Garcia is nothing special on the feet. His attack is focused on boxing with an occasional exchange in the clinch, but nothing he does is highly technical. Garcia has also struggled to get inside against some lengthy fighters in the past. Hooper is the rightful favorite with backers expecting him to make easy work of Garcia when this fight hits the mat. I am a huge fan of the kid but at -300 at I am not interested in betting anything sizable. Chase Hooper by Round Two Submission
Nick: Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 23-year old. If he can take this fight to the mat, he’s most likely going to look for Garcia’s back to score a submission. Five of Hooper’s eleven professional wins have come via submission. It is notable that Hooper recently started training with one of the best strikers in the UFC in Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. While I don’t expect we see dramatic improvements in that facet of his game, we should see some as Hooper is very young and developing. His striking did look a lot better his last time out in a win over Felipe Colares. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet. It’s going to be a key for him here to hang in striking exchanges if he’ll have any hope of taking this fight to the mat where he’s most comfortable. Garcia is a decent striker with surprising power for his frame. He is far from technical on the feet, but he can eat a punch and keep pushing forward and he does a good job keeping volume on his opponents. Hooper will need to tuck his chin on entries here, but his grappling advantage is far greater than Garcia’s will be striking. Chase Hooper by Round One Submission

Jun Yong Park -230 vs Joseph Holmes +185

Anthony: Next is a matchup at middleweight between Jun Yong Park and Joseph Holmes. I have yet to be impressed by Holmes in his nine professional fights thus far. He is a big middleweight with great physical gifts, but he needs to further develop as a striker before I am going to feel confident taking him in any bout. The volume from Holmes is underwhelming and a fighter like Jun Yong Park can walk him down and compete rather fiercely on the feet. The Iron Turtle also has excellent offensive grappling he may rely on here against a less experienced foe. We have seen Park win four of his five fights since debuting in the UFC and I think he is getting the proper respect here today as a -230 favorite. Holmes has still not proven capable of fighting top caliber competition like this. Jun Young Park by Round Three KO
Nick: Park is somewhat slow and ploddy on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. He is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded as he averages 2.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s mostly known for his durability, but he does sometimes leave himself open to be countered in exchanges. It seems Holmes is fairly well-rounded with six of his eight professional wins coming via submission. He has KO power, but he really hasn’t found much success against top level competition. Holmes is skilled enough to potentially pull off an upset here, but as long as Park is healthy he should be the better fighter everywhere. I expect he will mostly keep this fight standing where he should win more striking exchanges. Jun Yong Park by Round Two KO

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -250 vs Andrei Arlovski +200

Anthony: Here we have a scrap between heavyweights Andrei Arlovski and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Arlovski is still a tough test for a lot of guys even in the late stages of his career. He is active, intimidating and still putting together nice combinations and counters in the cage. The last fight for Arlovski against Jake Collier proved he can still stand and trade with anybody thanks to his technical counter striking. He has now won four fights in a row and shows no signs of slowing down. I think we see more of the same from him today as he out volumes a more power focused opponent. Rogerio de Lima does little aside from throw bombs. The looping overhands could catch Arlovski retreating here but I honestly still feel comfortable trusting his chin and footwork to keep him conscious and in control. Of course anything can happen between these heavyweights, but getting Arlovski as a large underdog seems like the easy play. He surely gets the nod if this fight goes a full fifteen minutes. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
Nick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima throws powerful strikes with 14 of his 19 professional wins coming via KO. He always seems to come out strong, but as his fights wear on it’s very rare that his cardio holds up for the better part of fifteen minutes. He’s a decent grappler as well in terms of his BJJ,, but his gas tank usually prevents him from leaning on that part of his game consistently. Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter-striking. His chin has held up fairly well for someone at his level of experience. He fights defensively, but if he gets caught it usually takes a lot more than a singular shot to put him down. Still, he does a good job putting consistent damage and pressure on his opponents. De Lima is going to be dangerous early here, which is the reason this line is so wide. That being said, Arlovski has superior cardio and I expect he can take over as this fight wears on. This is a low confidence play that could turn ugly quickly, but I like the value of the underdog. Andrei Arlovski by Decision

Phillip Hawes -185 vs Roman Dolidze +145

Anthony: The featured prelim is a middleweight fight with Roman Dolidze taking on Phil Hawes. Roman Dolidze looks absolutely huge at 185 pounds and should be able to out muscle Hawes in this bout. The striking of Dolidze has been a bit suspect, having a reckless approach to the standup. Nonetheless he was able to knock out Kyle Daukaus without issue in his only other appearance this year. He does have a rather impressive ground game though and I believe that is where his bread will be buttered in this fight. We have yet to see Hawes taken down in the UFC but the varied attacks from Dolidze provide a number of more unorthodox entries. He certainly has the power to put Hawes’ lights out too, but I think his clearest path to victory will be on the mat. Hawes is not the best striker by any means himself, but he is capable of landing the cleaner and more well-placed shots against Dolidze. It is a very close fight and for that reason I will side with the underdog. Dolidze has a greater potential to finish this belt given his wide array of submission attacks. Roman Dolidze by Decision
Nick: Phil Hawes is mostly known for his KO power, but he’s also an effective wrestler. Hawes does a good job mixing his kicks into his combinations. He’s very athletic with sneaky explosiveness, but his gas tank and durability are both major question marks. Hawes is coming off a solid KO win over Deron Winn. He worked well behind his jab in that fight, and his striking looked more refined than it ever had in the past. Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was the owner of his own small gym before the move, this camp shift should help him improve considerably in each fight moving forward. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. This was evident in his most recent fight, a quick KO win over Kyle Daukaus. This is an interesting matchup as both fighters have questionable cardio. I see Dolidze as a live underdog, especially early. However, Hawes should have enough to secure the win in this one. I have trouble trusting either of these fighters with my money, but Hawes is the pick. Phil Hawes by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Dustin Jacoby -180 vs Khalil Rountree +145

Anthony: The main card starts with a light heavyweight scrap between Khalil Rountree and Dustin Jacoby. These two men are at their best when kickboxing and so I hope to see a fight largely contested at that range today. Rountree is one of many fighters who traveled to Thailand in order to improve his game. Watching him dismantle opponents in his previous two appearances indicate that he has finally turned the corner. In addition to straight shots he has a well-developed arsenal of kicks and a very good cage presence. He also thrives in the muay thai clinch. Jacoby is a former Glory kickboxer who has printed money for me since joining the UFC. He has won eight consecutive professional bouts and I think that streak continues today. While Rountree has intimidating power, Jacoby is the far better tactician when it comes to placing strikes. He is bigger than Rountree and far more likely to win a fight that goes a full three rounds. I love Jacoby’s volume and confidence to throw in combination whenever his opponent takes a step back. I am happy to bet on him at the current odds. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
Nick: Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. Rountree is a talented Muay-Thai striker with extremely powerful kicks. He works excellent in the clinch, but he’s sometimes overly conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. Rountree is a frustrating fighter to back as he’s usually very volatile. He can look like a complete world beater on any given night, but on occasion he seems like he has zero interest in fighting. If Rountree is in peak form here, he will be very lively for an upset. This should be a fun and competitive matchup, but I see Jacoby being the aggressor and controlling the pace. He should be able to avoid any big counters coming from Rountree and wear him down in the later rounds. Dustin Jacoby by Round Three KO

Josh Fremd -165 vs Tresean Gore +135

Anthony: Next is a middleweight matchup between Josh Fremd and Tresean Gore. This is one of the toughest bouts to call on the entire card. Both men are rather low-level for the UFC and I am not expecting anything spectacular in this matchup. Fremd managed to survive his debut against Anthony Hernandez but that was a completely one-sided showing by the dominant Fluffy. He is lengthy, but not defensively sound or very smart when it comes to entering the pocket. Getting Gore at underdog money seems like an easy pick but he is also not faring well off back-to-back losses. The power for Gore is clearly there but so is a hesitancy to throw that remains very evident. He has what it takes to finish this fight but I worry what things will look like if Fremd takes his best shot and continues scrapping. Gore rarely will overexert himself and if this were to go to decision it is likely Fremd’s fight. I will not be betting on this matchup but I slightly lean the way of the underdog. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO
Nick: Tresean Gore has serious power in his strikes, but he’s known to have a solid wrestling base well. He comes into this matchup with a suspect 3-2 professional record, and there is a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Gore almost always looks dangerous early, but he’s overly willing to eat shots in exchanges. Like Gore, Fremd was once a highly regarded prospect. He was favored heavily to capture the LFA Middleweight title over Gregory Rodrigues back in May of 2021, but he was caught clean with strikes and put out via devastating KO. Fremd is very tall, but he doesn’t use his range that well. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. This is a low level matchup and a tough one to call, but I’m siding with Fremd here. He should be able to use his length to stay out of danger and outclass Gore over the course of three rounds. Josh Fremd by Decision

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -210 vs Jared Vanderaa +160

Anthony: The featured bout is a heavyweight fight with Waldo Cortes-Acosta debuting against Jared Vanderaa. Cortes-Acosta is undefeated and earned this debut after an impressive win on Dana White’s Contender Series. His resume is rather thin overall but he does have power and solid striking. I like the footwork and mobility of Cortes-Acosta for someone weighing 260 pounds. He is a very big heavyweight. His most dangerous weapon is a looping overhand but Cortes-Acosta is rather diligent when it comes to placing punches and hitting his targets. I do not think he is a legitimate contender in this thin division, but matching him with a fighter the likes of Vanderaa gives him a great chance to earn his first promotional win. Vanderaa has lost four fights in a row. He struggles to hold his own on his feet and Cortes-Acosta likely hurts him while striking here. I would not be surprised to see Vanderaa cut by the UFC after a loss today. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Round Two KO
Nick: This is an extremely low-level matchup at heavyweight between two of the least skilled fighters on the entire roster. Jared Vanderaa throws looping shots and he leaves himself open to counters. He does a good job pushing a pace and he throws fairly high volume, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Vanderaa does have decent wrestling ability for a heavyweight, but he really only has success if he finds himself in top position. He has a solid chin, but it’s tough to call his durability a strength as he’s been KO’d three times professionally. Waldo Cortes-Acosta will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Danilo Suzart. He is 7-0 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. This is a low level fight so it’s a tough one to call, but I’ll side with Cortes-Acosta here. He is the more technical boxer and Vanderaa really hasn’t shown anything worth backing against anyone. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Round Two KO

Max Griffin -190 vs Tim Means +155

Anthony: Next up is a welterweight scrap between Tim Means and Max Griffin. Both enter this matchup coming off a loss but riding a three-fight win streak prior. Griffin has really looked good lately. He is landing strikes at a much higher clip and beginning to utilize his reach more efficiently. While Neil Magny was able to earn the split decision victory against him it was a very competitive fight where Griffin certainly had his moments. While Means does great in all areas of a fight he may run into some trouble striking with Griffin at range. He will likely elect to instead work for takedowns and positions in the clinch where he can better keep control of Griffin. I think that Means is a live underdog but ultimately my pick in this fight is Griffin. He has superior boxing and seems to be improving here in the latter stage of his career. I have not seen as many improvements out of Means and expect him to be a step slower in the octagon tonight. Max Griffin by Decision
Nick: Griffin is a well-rounded fighter, but his greatest strength is his athleticism. He has a very large frame for a welterweight and he’s shown solid strength against a variety of high level of competition. Griffin is coming off a controversial decision loss to Neil Magny. He dominated the first round in that matchup, but Magny weaponized his superior cardio and began to take over as the fight wore on. Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. He’s likely capable of taking Griffin down here, but I’m not confident he’ll try as Means is getting up there in age and he’s very conscious of his fading cardio. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, Griffin is the rightful favorite. He should be the more powerful striker and I expect he’ll manage range well here. Means is dangerous in the clinch, but Griffin’s footwork and constant movement should be able to mostly keep him out of danger. Max Griffin by Decision

Arnold Allen -120 vs Calvin Katter -105

Anthony: The main event should be a very fun fight with Arnold Allen taking on Calvin Kattar. With recent wins over Dan Hooker and Sodiq Yusuff, we have seen Allen catapult up the rankings at 145 pounds. He is an extremely well-rounded fighter with great striking and overall Fight IQ. Allen is more dynamic than Kattar on the feet and much more sound defensively, but I seriously doubt his standing skills are sufficient to win a pure striking battle here. Kattar has thunderous power and some of the best boxing in this division. His hands and elbows are utilized almost exclusively in a forward pressure boxing stance. He will have plenty of opportunity to land on the southpaw Allen here by fighting the style of fight he has always been accustomed to. Kattar also has proven five round experience and an attack that is not very draining on his cardio. His steady pace, high volume and granite chin make me feel confident in his chances of winning if this goes a full five rounds. Kattar lands on average 5.19 significant strikes per minute, nearly two more than Allen has. While I do believe the hype is real and Allen is a legit contender, I have to side with Kattar at even odds. Ideally he can keep Allen on his back foot for the majority of this scrap. Calvin Kattar by Decision
Nick: Calvin Kattar is a high-level boxer, fighting primarily out of a traditional boxing stance. He has excellent footwork and head movement defensively and he works extremely well offensively behind his powerful jab. He’s extremely durable, which was most evident in his loss to Max Holloway where he ate more than 400 significant strikes. He has excellent cardio as well, and he’s very likely going to be the more aggressive fighter in this matchup. Allen has a solid wrestling base and creative submission ability, but he has struggled at times keeping his opponents grounded. He’s a talented striker who does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Most of his fights are won on the feet, but he’s shown a well-rounded overall game and he comes into this matchup having won nine consecutive fights under the UFC banner. I see Kattar mostly keeping this fight on the feet where he’s going to be the much more technical and consistent striker. He’s going to throw much more volume and as long as he avoids big shots in the early rounds his cardio advantage should start to shine through. This is a very close fight and should be outstanding for however long it lasts. Still, Kattar is my pick. Calvin Kattar by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com.