Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (10/11) MLB Divisional Playoff slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 postseason. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 55-50 record on the season. We have a solid Tuesday slate here with a few quality spots to consider. I recommend a bet for three of today’s four Playoff match-ups.
Season Record: (55-50)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves @ 1:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-150)
Ranger Suarez had a decent 2022, but he posted a spotty 4.20 xFIP in September and October. He also finished his season terribly, allowing 6 ERs and 3 HRs in his most recent start. This shaky outing came on the Road against Houston on 10/4.
The Braves have scored the 3rd most Runs in baseball since the All-Star Break, with 343. They also posted the 4th best overall OPS in that span with a .767, and they ranked 3rd since the break with 96 Home Runs. They had an MLB best .190 team ISO across the entirety of 2022. They are one of the best offenses left in these playoffs, so I’m happy to pay the juice of -150 on the Over of their Team Total of just 3.5 Runs.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros @ 3:37 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 6.5 Runs (EVEN)
Logan Gilbert posted an impressive 2.52 ERA against the Astros across 25 IP in the regular season. He also recorded 22 Ks across 22 IP, and he gave this offense more trouble than any pitcher outside of Shohei Ohtani. He finished 2022 with a solid .301 wOBA allowed to opposing hitters on the Road.
Justin Verlander has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his last six outings. He posted an excellent 1.64 ERA at Home in 2022 and an excellent overall xFIP of just 3.23. We’re looking at a low Game Total here of 6.5 Runs, but I still like the Under on that number at a reasonable price of EVEN.
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees @ 7:37 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-150)
Cal Quantrill will be getting the nod here for Cleveland. He’s been decent of late, but he’s due for considerable regression as his 4.43 xFIP sits more than a full point higher than his 3.38 ERA.
This Yankees offense finished 2022 with the most HRs in baseball (254). They finished 4th in OPS with a .751, 4th in SLG with a .426, and 3rd in ISO with a .185. They are one of the best offenses left in these playoffs, so I’m happy to pay the juice of -150 on the Over of their Team Total of just 3.5 Runs against a mediocre arm in Quantrill.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS