Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/23) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 48-45 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Tuesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s finish the regular season strong.
Season Record: (48-45)
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Colorado Rockies, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-135)
Ryan Feltner comes into this start with a 4.98 xFIP. He’s allowed 3+ ER in five consecutive starts and he’s allowing a terrible .237 ISO and .378 wOBA to RHH. He’s allowing a near 45% Hard Contact Rate and he’s carrying a 7.43 ERA so far in September.
This Padres offense is finally starting to click again. They’re averaging five runs scored across their last six games played. Their 5.5 Implied Team Total here does feel a bit inflated, but in Coors Field I expect it’s justified. I like the Over on the Padres 5.5 Run Team Total at an excellent price of -135.
New York Mets @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Mets, Run Line (-1.5) (-125)
Cole Irvin comes into this start averaging 5 ER allowed across his last for starts. He’s carrying an ugly 5.05 xFIP on the season and he’s likely due for continued regression as his 3.79 ERA is nearly 1.5 points lower than his xFIP. He’s carrying a 7.23 ERA so far in September and the Athletics bullpen continues to perform as one of the worst in baseball. This Mets offense has scored 7+ Runs in three of their last four games played.
Chris Bassitt has managed a Quality Start in three of his last four appearances. The Athletics projected starting lineup has a terrible .286 wOBA against RHP this season. It seems we’re getting clear value on the Mets -1.5 Run Line here at just -125. I’ll back them to cover.
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Francisco Giants, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
Tommy Henry comes into this start having allowed a combined 12 ER over his last two starts. He’s carrying a terrible 6.10 xFIP on the season and he’s allowing a 44% Hard Contact Rate to opposing hitters.
This San Francisco Giants offense has done their best work against lefties in 2022. Their projected starting lineup boasts a solid .197 ISO against southpaws this season. They’ve scored 6+ Runs in three of their last four games played. I like the value on the Giants Team Total going Over 4.5 Runs here at an excellent price of +110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS