UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi II – Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi II – 6.20.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi II. This weekend fights are back at Meta Apex with a great rematch headlining this card. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 159-74-4 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 156-77-4 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 6-19-2026 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Shane Collins -210 vs Otari Tanzilovi +170

• Anthony: The opener is a good featherweight fight between Shane Collins and Otari Tanzilovi. These are two debuting fighters looking to make it in the promotion here. Tanzilovi had an appearance before on Dana White’s Contender Series but he lost via split decision. Collins is the much more exciting fighter with more potential to finish any fight. His boxing combinations are solid and Collins can also pursue takedowns depending on his opponent. Tanzilovi is a very steady fighter that does not tend to overextend himself. Collins could get himself into trouble if he is not careful about closing the distance. Tanzilovi will sit down on punches and land big counters against opponents that move toward him. Collins will rely on his boxing at range to land shots without taking unnecessary damage. He should be avoiding a firefight here against Tanzilovi because the Georgian is so tough and hard to finish. Collins will only produce a finish here if he can beat down Tanzilovi and break his spirit over the course of three rounds. The output will be very high in this opening bout so I will be tuning in expecting a fun brawl. Collins is the rightful favorite here but now odds have now swelled to -210 in his debut. Shane Collins by Round Three KO
• Nick: Shane Collins will be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion with a 7-0 record at 26 years old. Collins is primarily a striker with four of his six wins coming via KO. His most recent was a KO of Talon Hammons back on May 2nd, that resulted in him capturing the A1C Featherweight Championship. Collins likes to pressure his opponents. He has surprising power for his frame and he generally does a good job throwing tight combinations. He has decent takedown defense and he has found success in scrambles against a low level of opponent, but at the UFC level it is expected he’ll mostly be looking to just sprawl and brawl. Otari Tanzilovi will also be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion with a 10-1 professional record at 28 years old. Tanzilovi is a pressure style striker, with seven of his ten professional wins coming via KO. He has decent footwork, he throws decent volume, but his style mostly works around his powerful right hand. His defensive grappling seems decent, but it hasn’t been tested extensively. Additionally, it is notable he has been out of action since February of 2025. Tanzilovi is moving up a weight class here, and Collins has faced the tougher level of regional opponents. That is enough to side with the favorite here. He should manage to outland Tanzilovi over the course of three rounds. Shane Collins by Decision

Karol Rosa -120 vs Luana Santos +100

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Karol Rosa and Luana Santos. This is a very close matchup that will likely be decided by takedowns and top control time. Rosa has made a career in the UFC by throwing a lot of punches and generally forcing opponents to match her crazy high output. Santos looked good moving up from flyweight and beating Melissa Croden in her last fight. Since moving to train at Syndicate she has improved a lot as an offensive grappler and I think even at this weight Santos will not struggle to convert takedowns. Her timing on takedown entries is good and overall Rosa averages just 70 percent takedown defense. Santos’ striking is also very crisp and technical but I worry since she has not landed close to 100 strikes in any appearance thus far. Rosa is the more proven commodity that bettors may favor here but she always fights to close decisions. Santos has better finishing equity here and the chance to win by stealing two rounds thanks to a takedown. Betting on the over prop is smarter than taking either side of this bout. Luana Santos by Decision
• Nick: Karol Rosa has landed just under six strikes per minute in the UFC, and she also averages just under one takedown per fifteen minutes. She is a well-rounded fighter, and she’s fought against the top of the division since she made her promotional debut back in 2019. Rosa has solid footwork and she does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. She’s not very powerful on the feet, but she works well behind her jab and she generally does a decent job finding her target in spite of the fact she is relatively short for the division. She’s a serviceable offensive grappler who tends to exploit her opponents weaknesses if they aren’t as well-rounded. Luana Santos is 10-2 professionally and 5-2 in the UFC. While her skills are still far from refined, she is much more polished as a fighter than one might expect given the lack of depth to her resume. Her strikes are far from powerful, but she continues to show technical improvements in that facet of her game. She’s primarily a grappler with five of her ten professional wins coming via submission. Her takedown entries aren’t always clean, but once she grounds her opponents she’s an extremely dangerous BJJ player. Rosa is the better striker in this match-up, but Santos is the much better grappler. Another binary match-up in which I slightly prefer the side of the striker. Santos tends to struggle if she can’t find takedowns early and she’s much bigger and stronger than Santos’ recent opponents. Karol Rosa by Decision

Levan Chokheli -400 vs Leon Shahbazyan +300

• Anthony: Here is a welterweight matchup between Levan Chokheli and Leon Shahbazyan. This seems like a volatile fight where numerous outcomes are on the table. Shahbazyan makes the long awaited debut here today long after his brother Edmen Shahbazyan has already made the UFC roster. The issue here for Leon Shahbazyan is a lack of wins against quality opponents. He has been beaten badly by the four best fighters that he has faced. The victories for Shahbazyan have also come against a lot of jobbers with one bout flagged for illegitimacy. He has a good manager that has gotten favorable matchups to build a record but now facing Chokheli might be the end of the line. This is a very tough opponent to debut against when so reliant on early finishes. Shahbazyan’s best chances of winning here come by submission in rounds one or two. We will see Shahbazyan force the issue here and clinch against Chokheli early. I expect that we see one good armbar attempt from him but that may be it. Chokheli can use straight punches to keep Shahbazyan off him and fading away throughout the bout. Shahbazyan cannot compete with Chokeli in terms of his power. The Georgian also has advantage in terms of his chin and overall defensive awareness. I do not think the judge’s scorecards will be needed at all here. Levan Chokheli by Round Two KO
• Nick: Levon Chokheli will be making his UFC debut here with a 14-3 professional record at 29 years old. Chokheli has found most of his success on the feet, with eleven of his fourteen wins coming via KO. Chokheli is an aggressive striker who has the durability to force and find success in a brawl/fire fight. His defensive grappling seems to be a weakness more than a strength, but he’s very strong for a welterweight which should assist in his goal of keeping his fights standing. Leon Shabazyan will be making his UFC debut here with a 12-4 professional record at 30 years old. The older brother of Edmen Shabazyan, most of Leon’s success has come on the mat as eleven of his twelve professional victories have come via submission. Shabazyan is almost always looking to grapple as he has a dangerous BJJ game, with an outstanding front choke series and scrambling ability. He is hittable, slow, and plodding on the feet but if he can take his opponents to the mat he should be capable of finding success against a lot of welterweights on the roster. This is a binary match-up in which Chokheli should dominate if this fight is standing and Shabazyan should find success if this fight hits the mat. That being said, Chokheli’s footwork and strength are going to make it difficult for Shabazyan to take this fight to the mat. Levan Chokheli by Round Two KO

Michael Aswell -400 vs Gaston Bolanos +300

• Anthony: This is a featherweight matchup with Gaston Bolanos facing Michael Aswell. Here we see Aswell as the huge favorite despite losing in his last fights against Luke Riley. There in defeat we did get to see more good out of Aswell who continues to improve at just 25 years old. This is a dangerous boxer fighting out of 4oz Fight Club in Houston. Just like his teammates, Aswell tends to push a great pace with his boxing and land combinations that extend longer than his opponents’. Aswell is also listed just a bit taller than Bolanos although size will help him tremendously in this fight. Bolanos has always been undersized at this weight and it is tough for him to close the distance. Aswell has the much better footwork and feints too making this a very tough puzzle for Bolanos standing. It seems unlikely that Bolanos would try to shoot or mix much wrestling into this fight. Bolanos will rely on landing here and scoring a knockout to cash as the +300 underdog. I do not think Bolanos has much of a chance seeing as how Aswell has never been finished. Bolanos also has some power in his hands but he becomes less dangerous as the fight wears on. Michael Aswell Jr by Round Three KO
• Nick: Michael Aswell is 11-4 professionally and just 25 years old. He is primarily a striker, with six of his eleven professional wins coming via KO. He has primarily fought for a quality regional promotion in Fury FC, and his losses have come to a relatively high level of competition. He suffered a loss his last time out, but he fought to a competitive decision against a dangerous and rising prospect in Luke Riley. Aswell does a good job forcing a pace in most of his fights. He can be hittable in exchanges, but he puts out a lot of volume and he generally does a good job building momentum as his fights wear on. Gaston Bolanos  is 8-5 professionally and now 2-1 in the UFC. His MMA resume is somewhat uninspiring, but he’s also had a solid professional run in both Muay Thai and kickboxing. If this fight takes place at striking range. Bolanos should be able to keep things competitive early. That being said, I expect he’ll be significantly outclassed as this fight wears on. Aswell would be wise to lean on his grappling here, but even if he doesn’t I expect he’ll stay a step ahead on the feet. Michael Aswell Jr by Round Two KO

Allan Nascimento -170 vs Mitch Raposo +145

• Anthony: Here is a flyweight matchup between Mitch Raposo and Allan Nascimento. This bout was scheduled for April but Raposo was forced to withdraw due to illness that week. Odds moved in favor of Nascimento but at -170 this is still a very good bet. Nascimento appears to be significantly better than Raposo in most areas. His jabs and kicks tend to do much more damage. Nascimento is also taller than Raposo with a five-inch edge in reach. At flyweight, Nascimento has good length which allows him to land offensive attacks with power. He hits harder than Raposo despite not really being known for his striking skills. Nascimento is a jiu jitsu blackbelt who always threatens with submissions on the ground. Raposo may be confident in his own offensive wrestling but in this fight against Nascimento it will be very difficult for him to find any momentum while grappling. He won in his last bout against Azat Maksum but even in fights where Raposo does take control, he tends to be winning on very slim margins. Nascimento is one of my more confident picks because I feel Raposo cannot do much at all to hurt him. Nascimento is going to spend a portion of this fight comfortably sitting on Raposo’s back and slowly working toward a submission. The Brazilian will want to finish him after getting an extra two months to prepare for the same name. Allan Nascimento by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Allan Nascimento has outstanding BJJ, he’s excellent in scrambles and he isn’t afraid to pull guard. He’s extremely aggressive on the mat offensively, as sixteen of his twenty-two professional wins have come via submission. Nascimento most recently secured a submission win over a tough out in Cody Durden, and he enters this match-up on a four fight win streak. His striking is mostly predictable and he can be hittable in exchanges, but he pursues takedowns aggressively in most of his fights. Mitch Raposo is 10-3 professionally, coming off an impressive decision win over Azat Maksum in a fight in which he was a +300 underdog. Raposo is relatively well-rounded as a solid fundamental wrestler with a decent overall grappling base. While he’s most credentialed on the mat, most of his professional success in MMA has come on the feet as three of his last four wins have come via KO. Raposo mostly fights off the back foot, which has cost him in a major way since he broke into the UFC. He has solid fundamentals, quality cardio and durability, but his lack of volume and activity means he’s fighting from behind in a lot of his match-ups. Raposo can keep things close, but I expect Nascimento to win scrambles once this fight hits the mat. The line is wide in this one, but I’m siding with the favorite. Allan Nascimento by Round Two Submission

Bia Mesquita -600 vs Melissa Mullins +425

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a women’s bantamweight fight between Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins. Mesquita has won in both previous appearances via rear naked choke. This is one of the best jiu jitsu practitioners to ever compete in the UFC boasting IBJJF and ADCC world championships. I am expecting to see the 4th-degree black belt secure another win by submission here. She is adding tools to her arsenal at American Top Team, but against Mullins we will see her fall back on old reliable. There is not going to be any answer for Mesquita and her transitions on the mat once this fight does go down there. Mullins is often relying on her own grappling ability to finish fights and hurt girls via ground and pound. We rarely see her put into these tough positions against opponents. Mullins also relies on takedowns in her fights as needed for the instances where she has been hurt. Mullins’ striking is marginally better than Mesquita but it will not be enough to win this bout. Mesquita will find contact with Mullins here very early to initiate the first exchanges in the clinch. Mullins will be tapped out by either an armbar or choke in this spot. Bia Mesquita by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Bia Mesquiata is 7-0 professionally and 35 years old. Training out of an excellent camp via America Top Team, Mesquita is a credentialed BJJ practitioner who finds most of her success on the mat where she does a good job advancing position and looking for submissions. Her striking is far from refined, but it has been gradually improving. Five of her seven professional wins have come via submission, including the most recent over Montse Rendon back in March of this year. Melissa Mullins is 7-2 professionally, with four of those seven wins coming via KO. As impressive as her record is, Dixon hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Additionally, at 34-years old it does seem she’s getting a late start to her professional career. She is primarily a grappler, who is also a decent striker at range. She has a solid understanding of footwork and underrated offensive BJJ. Her takedown entries aren’t great, but she is capable of dominating if she can find herself on top of her opponent. She is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off an ugly decision loss to a mediocre opponent in Darya Zheleznyakova. Mesquita should probably see tougher competition than Mullins moving forward. She’s the much stronger fighter here and leagues ahead of Mullins on the mat. Mullins may be the better striker, but if so it isn’t by much. I expect the favorite to dominate once this fight hits the ground. Bia Mesquita by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Vinicius Oliveira -300 vs Andre Fili +240

• Anthony: The main card begins at featherweight with this fight between Vinicius Oliveira and Andre Fili. This is a massive fight in the career trajectory of Oliveira who suffered a loss to Mario Bautista in his last bout. That matchup against Bautista proved way too much for Oliveira who was ranked at bantamweight. Now here he is only four months later competing at featherweight which could go one of two ways. Oliveira here could get grappled and controlled by Fili since he is a bit undersized. Grappling is a clear weakness in his game and Fili can expose that if there is a discrepancy between their size. I am expecting to see an improved version of him at this weight without needing to cut down to almost no body fat to make 135 pounds. This should be a healthier version of Oliveira who can likely push the pace and still sting opponents with his power. Fili presents a stylistic challenge to him but really Oliveira should cruise past him in this bout. Fili is now 35 years old with quite a few recent losses. It would take a near perfect performance from Fili here to hold down Oliveira and win on the scorecards. I anticipate that Vinicius Oliveira will connect and win this fight by knockout. Vinicius Oliveira by Round Two KO
• Nick: Vinicius Oliveira is 30 years-old, 23-4 professionally, with sixteen of those wins coming via KO. Oliveira is an extremely powerful striker who seems to do his best work in the pocket. He’s a physical specimen, but moving up a weight class here after struggling to make the 135 lb limit at bantamweight. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he can be open to be countered in exchanges. He is 4-1 in the UFC, coming off an ugly loss to Mario Bautista in which he was dominated and submitted in Round Two. Andre Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful punches, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. His durability is somewhat questionable as he’s been taking damage in the UFC since 2013. Still, he’s a difficult out for anyone outside of the rankings at featherweight. This should be a competitive fight, but a tough one to call as both of these fighters can be volatile. I’ll take a small shot on the underdog in Fili expecting he can lean on his wrestling to tire out Oliveira and secure the win as this fight wears on. Andre Fili by Decision

Murtazali Magomedov -330 vs Melsik Baghdasaryan +260

• Anthony: Here is a good matchup between featherweights Murtazali Magomedov and Melsik Baghdasaryan. Magomedov is undefeated at 10-0 after earning his contract last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. It has been tough to gauge the overall skillset of Magomedov as he run through many opponents on the regional scene. However, knocking out Brahyam Zurcher is a good sign that his power will translate as the level of competition begins to improve. Magomedov has technical boxing skills with great power for this weight class. He is also a good wrestler who is very opportunistic in terms of his grappling and his submission attempts. I am surprised to see a great kickboxer like Baghdasaryan here at +260 but this was a fighter who was finished in all three of his professional losses. Baghdasaryan really does not do well defending against grapplers and even some strikers have found success by beating him to the punch or landing with more power. The patience and distance control for Baghdasaryan are solid but here Magomedov will not be patient as he applies pressure and chases a finish. If we do see Magomedov carve out a name for himself in this division it will start with a convincing win here against Baghdasaryan in this debut. Murtazali Magomedov by Round Two KO
• Nick: Murtazali Magomedov will be making his UFC debut here, with a 10-0 professional record at 26 years old. Magomefov breaks into the promotion off an impressive win on Contender Series which came via KO of Brahyam Zurcher just 1:37 into Round One. Magomedov is well-rounded, with five wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. On the feet he fights well at range, with decent footwork and surprising power for his frame. He can be hittable as he sometimes backs up in lengthy exchanges, but it seems he has solid durability and cardio to support his style. He has dangerous offensive grappling with an excellent front choke series and a solid instinct for finding the finish. His regional tape leaves a lot to be desired, but it does seem he’s making considerable improvements from fight to fight. Melsik Baghdasaryan is an extremely talented kickboxer. He throws impressive combinations, mixing powerful kicks in between his punches, and five of his last eight professional wins have come via knockout. As talented as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is questionable at best and it is notable he has been out of action since February of 2025. He was brutalized his last time out against a tough out in Jean Silva, and he enters this match-up having lost two of his last three fights under the UFC banner. Magomedov has a massive grappling advantage here, and he should be able to match Baghdasaryan on the feet. He should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Murtazali Magomedov by Round One Submission 

Andre Lima -600 vs Kevin Borjas +425

• Anthony: Next is a flyweight matchup between Andre Lima and Kevin Borjas. It is notable that Borjas was more than three pounds over the weight limit on Friday. He is going to be up against it here given the matchup stylistically with Lima who is much more well rounded. Borjas has lost 4 of his last 5 fights and I do not think adding on extra pounds will help much. Borjas can really get his hands going in round one but often he seems to slow down and start to fade as fights wear on. Borjas power stings early but he is a flyweight and cannot rely solely on his boxing. Lima will make this fight look very easy if he wants to take Borjas down to the mat. The Peruvian struggles when it comes to defending takedowns and improving his positions to fight back up to the feet. Lima also has very good striking defense and power to match that of Borjas. The combinations from Lima will be more brief, but he will land big counters throughout this fight that will have a strong effect on Borjas. It would surprise me to see the undefeated Lima lose in this particular matchup although the odds are wider than they really should be. Borjas will fight a competent round here against Lima before these odds start to make more sense. I expect Lima to win by decision unless he can finish Borjas at some point on the ground. Andre Lima by Decision
• Nick: Andre Lima enters this match-up at 27-years old. He is 11-0 professionally, with five of those wins coming via KO. Lima is a dangerous offensive striker with surprising power for his frame. He does an excellent job mixing elbows into his combinations. He’s aggressive and throws a lot of volume in exchanges, and he’s shown he is more than willing to take shots to throw them. Lima does a good job checking kicks. He’s defensively sound for his age and generally remains calm in exchanges despite how aggressive he can be offensively. Kevin Borjas is 10-5 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and one coming via decision. At 28-years-old he continues to show improvements every time we see him fight. He’s primarily a striker, but he has solid takedown defense and generally does a good job working back to his feet if he’s taken down. This line is too wide, but Borjas enters this fight having lost four of his last five fights. He’s usually competitive, but he lacks the finishing ability that Lima brings to this match-up. This should be competitive early, but Lima will likely pull away rather quickly. Additionally, he has a very clear path to victory if he leans on his grappling. Andre Lima by Round Two Submission

Christian Rodriguez -200 vs Hyder Amil +160

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Christian Rodriguez and Hyder Amil. Both men here enter desperate for a victory after losing in back to back appearances. Amil has become a fighter that I adore watching because of his reckless style and ability to win brawls. He is a more powerful and dynamic boxer than Rodriguez who seems much less fluid. Rodriguez can be a bit plodding in his stance but he always throws back some decent volume of his own. He is a very durable fighter with a good chin and more grit than Amil. Rodriguez can also make this fight rather easy by using his grappling often. He has shot for 22 takedowns in his previous two fights, forcing opponents to engage on his terms and burn a lot of energy by wrestling. Amil has shown decent takedown defense but Rodriguez will time his entries here as Amil enters the pocket or switches stances. Rodriguez will also be able to land consistently on Amil because he is not loading up. Ceerod can let this fight play out with Amil chasing him early and running away from his grappling late. Amil is always a live underdog but here I expect to see him chewed up in the clinch and constantly returned down to the mat. Christian Rodriguez by Decision
• Nick: Christian Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan in certain match-ups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. He has decent BJJ both offensively and defensively, which was evident in his wins over highly regarded prospects in Austin Bashi, Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian. He is 12-4 professionally and 5-3 in the UFC. At just 28-years old he’s certainly a prospect to keep an eye on, but he is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. It is also worth mentioning that he’s been more successful at bantamweight than he has been at featherweight. Hyder Amil is 11-2 professionally, but getting a late start to his career as a 36-year old featherweight. He recorded knockout victories in his first two fights in the UFC, but he is now 2-2 in the promotion and he enters this match-up off back to back losses. Amil is primarily a striker and he uses his range well. He has decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge how effective his grappling will be against UFC level opponents as he has favored his striking in his last few fights. Amil pushes at a serious pace and he throws a lot of volume on the feet. Amil is going to be dangerous on the feet here, but I expect Rodriguez can mix in his grappling to narrowly edge this one out on the scorecards. Christian Rodriguez by Decision

Navajo Stirling -330 vs Ion Cutelaba +260

• Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight contest between Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba. This is finally a step-up in competition for Stirling who has easily beaten the opponents he faced so far in the UFC. He is 9-0 and still undefeated when representing City Kickboxing gym. The team has Stirling fighting very composed in each trip to the cage, using his weapons well at range and smashing opponents with counters. The stats are very lopsided with Stirling landing 6.25 strikes per minute with just 2.67 significant strikes absorbed. Cutelaba is a southpaw that will likely eat a lot of shots here coming from Stirling’s left side. Some of the recent wins for Cutelaba have been impressive but he is still the same glass cannon that he has always been. Cutelaba will lean on his wrestling to pursue takedowns here against Stirling right away. I am interested to see how this grappling test plays out in round number one, but Stirling is so far averaging 82 percent takedown defense. I expect that Cutelaba will begin to fall apart here as he tires out from wrestling so heavy at the opening bell. I am not so convinced that Stirling’s advanced striking will be what necessarily wins him this fight. I expect that Stirling earns this victory simply by standing much taller than Cutelaba and by using his cardio to push a hard pace in rounds two and three. He is one of my most confident picks. There is probably more value betting Stirling live after Cutelaba gives him a tough go at it early. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO
• Nick: Navajo Stirling is just 9-0 professionally, but he also has a lot of experience fighting professionally as a kickboxer. He fights out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, where he trains with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, and Carlos Ulberg. Coached by Eugene Baremen, Stirling is a gifted striker who does his best work at range. He is 28-years old, and 4-0 in the UFC. Like many CKB fighters, Stirling likes to strike at range. His defensive grappling ability is questionable at best and he’s taking a considerable step up in competition here against Ion Cutelaba. That being said he has excellent footwork, and he is going to be the better striker in this match-up. Ion Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. Cutelaba has been a bit more conservative lately, but he’s always a wild card in terms of which version of him shows up on fight night. While Stirling does have the skills on the feet to justify this price tag, I expect Cutelaba can make things tough on him if he can find a takedown early. A low confidence play, but this line feels too wide to not take a chance on the underdog. Ion Cutelaba by Round One Submission

Manel Kape -150 vs Kyoji Horiguchi +125

• Anthony: This is a great fight at flyweight between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. The bout is a rematch of a meeting at the 2017 RIZIN Grand Prix where Horiguchi defeated Kape via round three submission. These athletes have both grown so much since then but today’s fight handicaps very similar to that first meeting. Kape found early success in that fight thanks to his power and elite striking skills. Kape is as dangerous as any fighter at flyweight given his power. He has won three straight fights by knockout including a victory against Brandon Royval last December. Kape will always engage with opponents early on the feet in each of his fights. He will likely be quicker than Horiguchi while connecting very early with power shots. Horiguchi is the more complete fighter, mixing his attacks well and staying patient defensively. The recent success of Horiguchi has really been impressive after winning in both appearances since returning to the UFC. This is a fighter who has only lost once inside the octagon back when he faced Demetrious Johnson. Horiguchi can finish this fight thanks to his grappling but Kape has historically done well defending takedowns. These are two older flyweights and I prefer to bet on Kape here in what will likely be a very competitive brawl. Since their first meeting, Kape has also had positive drug tests with trace amounts of turinabol. I assume that he is a drug cheat and he really looks to be juiced given his recent physical form. His cardio and output will be more than what Horiguchi can handle when these two are colliding over and over. Manel Kape by Round Three KO
• Nick: This fight could be a title eliminator for the UFC Flyweight Championship, but it is notably a rematch of a fight that took place in RIZIN back in December of 2017. Horiguchi secured the win via submission the first time around, but Kape has made dramatic improvements over the past few years. Manel Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork, which he uses well to set up his power shots. Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average for the division, but his KO power alone makes him a threat against anyone. He is 7-1 across his last eight fights, and it seems there’s a chance he can secure a title shot with an impressive performance in this matchup. This will be Kyoji Horiguchi’s third fight within his second stint in the UFC. He left the promotion in spite of a 6-1 record back in 2016, and he returns here after successful runs in both RIZIN and Bellator. Horiguchi has a 36-5 professional record, with fifteen wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He held the Bantamweight title in both RIZIN and Bellator, and he also captured the flyweight championship for RIZIN. He secured an extremely impressive win his last time out where he dominated Amir Albazi. While he seems a bit past his athletic prime, Horiguchi is still an explosive striker with advanced grappling ability both offensively and defensively. He prefers to stand and trade, but he has a high fight IQ and he generally does a good job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponent. This fight should be competitive, but Kape could have trouble securing the win if he doesn’t find a finish. Horiguchi is the more likely of the two to mix in his grappling and it is expected he’ll land more volume on the feet. In a fight I could see going either way, I see some value in the underdog. A Kape win would not at all surprise me here but if this gets extended to the scorecards I expect Horiguchi did enough to get the nod. Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com