UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim – 6.6.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim. This weekend will have fights at META Apex in Las Vegas with some solid bouts under this main event. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 143-71-4 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
- Nick: 143-71-4 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)
*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 6-5-2026 at 6pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST
Ketlen Souza -310 vs Ariane Carnelossi +240
- Anthony: The card begins with women’s strawweights Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi. This matchup will likely be a bit more competitive than the odds would suggest. Carnelossi is always a live underdog but I am not rushing to take her here by any means. She is a solid athlete for strawweight but not much in terms of an offensive threat. Souza seems much more willing to take control of her fights by pushing a pace or really moving forward to establish herself with a jab. Carnelossi can take quite a beating too but without any momentum it is difficult for her to rally and win. The performance tends to get worse for Carnelossi the more she is taken down or kept neutralized when striking. Souza should have the tools to win here standing, mixing in kicks and outlanding Carnelossi. The first fight seems very likely to go the full distance and in that case I find it hard to picture Carnelossi winning rounds convincingly. She still may appear to outperform these odds or at least look good the first five minutes. Ketlen Souza by Decision
- Nick: Ketlen Souza is a former Invicta FC Flyweight Champion. She is 16-6 professionally, with eight of those wins having come via KO. She got back in the win column her last time out against Bruna Brasil, but prior to that she hadn’t won a fight since 2024. Souza is well rounded, but her strength for the division is what stands out when you watch her on film. She has surprising power and explosiveness, both beyond what would be expected of a fighter with her frame. Ariane Carnelossi is very well built for the weight class. She’s extremely muscular with decent power and explosiveness in her punches. Her striking is far from refined and most of her success has come via overwhelming smaller and weaker opponents. As dangerous as she is, she has been generally inconsistent since breaking into the UFC. She enters this match-up having lost two of her last three fights, with the win coming via DQ due to illegal headbutts from her opponent. This fight actually represents a rematch of a fight that Carnelossi won back in May of 2019. The line feels wide here knowing this, but Souza has made much more significant improvements since then. I expect Souza can stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes. Ketlen Souza by Decision
Jeisla Chaves -400 vs Yuneisy Duben +300
- Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup with Jeisla Chaves taking on Yuneisy Duben. Chaves here makes her promotional debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. That fight was a bloodbath and both athletes earned a contract there given their immense grit. Chaves is still undefeated and looks to have a promising career ahead of her. She actually was a ring girl before transitioning to fighting just a few years ago. Duben is slightly more experienced but we have not seen much at all from her in terms of consistent offense. Duben does not do well avoiding strikes and often she falls behind very early in her matchups. Chaves will have the speed advantage here but largely we will see these two exchanging back and forth some modest volume. Chaves does well mixing in more kicks and blending attacks when compared to Duben. Some bettors really seem to like her this weekend given the current odds on this bout. This is an awful fight as far as betting goes but I do feel more confident picking Chaves to win compared to Souza the fight before. Jeisla Chaves by Decision
- Nick: Jeisla Chaves will be making her UFC debut here, with a 7-0 professional record at 29 years old. She mostly recently secured a win on Dana White’s Contender Series with a narrow decision win over Sofia Montenegro. Chaves is primarily a striker, who fights out of a muay thai stance. She does a decent job keeping pressure on her opponents, but she really hasn’t been tested against top level competition. She has some power on the feet, but her defensive grappling really hasn’t been tested professionally. Yuneisy Duben is 29 years old and 6-1 professionally, coming off a brutal KO loss to Carli Judice via headkick in her UFC debut. She has been out of action since that fight back in March of 2025. Duben carries decent power on the feet, but she only has one win against a fighter with a winning professional record. Her defensive grappling and general durability are both major questions that need to be answered entering this fight, and while she is likely improving it’s tough to say she really belongs on the UFC roster. The line feels too wide here as this is one of the lower level fights you’ll see on a UFC card. That being said, Caves is the rightful favorite. She is the more natural athlete, and it seems she has the more well-rounded game of the two here. We’ve also seen her overcome adversity, and the same can’t really be said for Duben. Jeisla Chaves by Decision
Joanderson Brito -190 vs Jordan Leavitt +155
- Anthony: Here is a featherweight fight between Jordan Leavitt and Joanderson Brito. It should be a fun scrap here with Brito likely moving quickly and putting his hands on Leavitt. There is not much threat of power from Leavitt on the feet making this a matchup where Brito can finally let his offense go. His speed and quick combinations early may be enough to dispose of Leavitt. Brito also proved his grappling chops more last time out in that bout against Isaac Thomson. I do not think he should be so involved in grappling, but Brito does continue to improve his takedown defense in each appearance. In this matchup Brito should know the task at hand and the importance of separating from Leavitt. These two will likely spend a large portion of this fight stuck together but Brito will make Leavitt pay here between those exchanges. The empty arena will amplify with each loud kick and knee that connects with Leavitt. His strength could also help to stuff Leavitt’s shots and even dissuade him from shooting. I feel confident here picking Brito to get this victory. Joanderson Brito by Decision
- Nick: Joanderson Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. He throws explosive strikes, he has powerful takedown entries, and dangerous BJJ as well. His hyper-aggressive style allows him to overwhelm many of his opponents, but it does make him tough to rely on if he can’t secure an early finish. His defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired, and he seems to be declining athletically as he has a 1-2 record across his last three fights. Jordan Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He has excellent cardio, and while his strikes don’t do much damage his unorthodox style does seem to be enough to keep him out of serious trouble. He enters this fight off back-to-back wins, and it seems he has rejuvenated his career since moving down a weight class to featherweight. Leavitt is going to be in trouble here if he can’t get this fight to the mat, but Brito’s takedown defense seems to be declining. This is a low confidence play, but I see value in the underdog as he should be able to win minutes here if he aggressively pursues the takedowns. Jordan Leavitt by Decision
Chelsea Chandler -120 vs Priscila Cachoeira +100
- Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Chelsea Chandler and Priscila Cachoeira. These two represent some of the least talented athletes currently on the roster. Cachoeira has lost four of her last five appearances. She is very mediocre, often standing square and throwing simple combinations and hooks. Cachoeira still fights hard at 37 years old but she is not quite breaking records or doing much well. Chandler has been the less active fighter but also coming off of back to back defeats. Chandler is very big for this division but she does not really hold position well. While credentialed with her jiu jitsu, Chandler does not seem to really use it to great effect in her fights. She can take punches here from Cachoeira but it is crucial that she can score takedowns against her in rounds two and three. Cachoeira also has a negative striking differential with many opponents finding it very easy to ding her head over and over. I do not want to invest any money on Cachoeira and that is especially true when only getting her at near even odds. Chelsea Chandler by Decision
- Nick: Chelsea Chandler is just 6-4 professionally. Her record accurately suggests she’s inexperienced, but she shows a well rounded game against lower level competition when you watch her on film. She has powerful striking, dangerous BJJ, and her cardio seems solid as well. That all being said, she has struggled to find sustained success at the UFC level. While dangerous, she’s predictable in her attacks and one of the slower fighters in the division. The step up in competition has halted her development as a fighter, and she enters this match-up having lost three of her last four match-ups. Priscila Cachoeira is very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute and her aggressive style also presents opportunities for her opponents to find takedowns. She is terrible when fighting off her back, and she has lost four of her last five fights coming into this match-up. This is another low level match-up between volatile fighters which makes this a tough fight to call. Chandler is the better grappler here, but I expect Cachoeira can keep this fight standing just long enough to land the bigger shots and pull out a win. Priscila Cachoeira by Decision
Bruno Silva -130 vs Edgar Chairez +110
- Anthony: Here is a fight between flyweights Bruno Silva and Edgar Chairez. This is a near pick’em fight for good reason and one of the toughest matchups to handicap. Both athletes do a lot of good things in this division that give them a clear edge over opponents. Silva has a knack for stringing together punches and showing above average power for a flyweight. The Brazilian tries very hard for a finish and has only won via stoppage in the UFC. Chairez is a gunslinger in the very same sense with his very first win by decision coming in his most recent fight. Chairez can be patient when it comes to striking, utilizing his boxing and meek attacks from range to keep fights competitive. Chairez does his best work blending in the grappling and attacking the neck of his opponents. Quick guillotine attacks are Chairez’ best weapon and certainly available here against Silva. It could be dicey at times for Silva but he also has the strength to fight out of some looser attempts at chokes. He defends against 72 percent of opponent takedowns and normally punishes them for failed attempts. This matchup is also difficult to predict because Silva’s output can lead to his downfall when tired. Chairez should be favored here if these two do survive to see the scorecards. Silva will be cut up and likely gasping for breath against Chairez who is fresher and more durable. Chairez’ boxing coaches focus their training on running and setting a fast pace. Edgar Chairez by Decision
- Nick: Bruno Silva is fairly well-rounded with powerful boxing technique and decent offensive grappling ability. He has impressive power in exchanges and he’s excellent out of breaks from close range. He is 15-8-2 professionally, and one of the older fighters in the division at 36-years old. While he is certainly dangerous offensively, he’s hittable in exchanges and his cardio often wanes if his fights are extended into the third round. Edgar Chairez is 13-6 professionally, a fighter who gained notoriety for a competitive loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice and gave a solid showing of himself against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. Three of his four most recent wins have come via submission, but Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable, but he does take a considerable amount of damage in striking exchanges. Additionally, it seems he has recently grown a bit more slow and plodding in his striking approach. This fight should be competitive, but I do prefer the Silva side. He’s the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up and I fully expect him to proactively grapple. Bruno Silva by Decision
Marcus McGhee -480 vs John Yannis +360
- Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup at bantamweight between Marcus McGhee and John Yannis. To be honest I think it is cruel and unusual to lock John Yannis in the octagon to fight this weekend. This is a massive step down in competition for McGhee who last fought to a decision against Petr Yan. Here he is facing Yannis as a short notice replacement after originally getting scheduled to face Jakub Wiklacz. While the matchup with Wiklacz would’ve likely produced a great scrap, this matchup against Yannis should give McGhee a highlight reel knockout. I am betting him to win here via finish. Yannis does not belong competing against top tier athletes and against McGhee he is going to get knocked down. I correctly picked Yannis as a +210 underdog in his last fight but he is really not going to stand a chance against most opponents that oppose him. He has power but poor footwork and output that is not very diverse. McGhee is a legitimate top contender with great tools no matter where the fight goes. He is 36 years old with limited improvement ahead of him but even on his worst night McGhee should be winning here and landing double Yannis’ strikes. McGhee has 57 percent striking defense while landing 5.50 significant strikes per minute. This is my most confident pick and I will be betting McGhee to win inside the distance. Marcus McGhee by Round Two KO
- Nick: Marcus McGhee is 10-2 professionally, 4-1 in the UFC. He’s 36-years old and getting a late start to his UFC run, but he is extremely well-rounded as a technically sound striker with solid wrestling and general grappling ability. He fights out of a solid camp via MMA Lab, and in spite of his age, he seems to be entering his athletic prime. He gave a quality showing of himself in a decision loss to Petr Yan his last time out, and he’s taking a dramatic step down in level of competition here against Yannis. John Yannis is primarily a striker who puts his full weight into his strikes. He throws effective leg kicks and he has solid cardio and durability, but the biggest hole in his game is certainly his defensive grappling ability. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a solid KO win over Jamie Siraj back in April. While dangerous offensively, this match-up with McGhee is coming on short notice and against a much higher level of opponent than anyone he has faced before. Yannis has enough power to land something meaningful on the feet, but I expect McGhee is too durable not to extend this fight if he needs to. McGhee is the more skilled fighter no matter where this one goes, and I expect he can dominate if he chooses to lean on his grappling here. Marcus McGhee by Round One Submission
Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Iwo Baraniewski -420 vs Junior Tafa +300
- Anthony: The main card begins at light heavyweight with Junior Tafa facing Iwo Baraniewski. Tafa scored a first round victory against Kevin Christian one month ago. The activity is great but Baraniewski will be a much tougher test here on short notice. Tafa weighed in a half pound over the limit and Baraniewski will be noticeably faster than him. He is a brawler but also a very skilled fighter with good handspeed and power. Baraniewski can land tight combinations and overcome issues of reach in this matchup without much issue. He will focus entirely on striking against Tafa who does meet him in the middle to trade. Tafa will not be able to stand in the pocket and absorb many shots from Baraniewski. Of course the Samoan is durable but Baraniewski has finished every opponent that he has faced. Baraniewski also showed incredible durability in his debut fight against Ibo Aslan. He throws with very high volume and it stands to reason those punches will be too much for Tafa who averages far fewer strikes landed per minute. These two are going to bang it out in round one and I expect Baraniewski to win once again. He is aware of the threat from Tafa and I expect he moves his head enough to stay safe. This fight is a great bet to go under the one round total. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One KO
- Nick: Iwo Baraniewski enters this match-up with a 8-0 professional record and all of those wins coming via first round finish. Primarily a striker, Baraniewski is an explosive puncher with a muscular but compact frame. He’s extremely aggressive and has KO power in all of his limbs. He’s small for the division, but he has a solid chin and his striking in the pocket is levels above a good chunk of this division. We haven’t seen it in the UFC yet, but Baraniewski also has a solid Judo base which could prove useful in this particular match-up. Junior Tafa had a lot of hype coming into the promotion, but he has been mostly a disappointment so far. He has knockout power, but his cardio is suspect and he hasn’t really shown technical boxing ability on the level of other up-and-comers. Additionally, his grappling ability is nowhere near UFC level. He is coming off a KO win over Kevin Christian, but he is still just 3-5 under the UFC banner. Baraniewski can be dangerous to back as a favorite given his kill-or-be-killed style. Still, he feels like the correct side here. He should outclass Tafa no matter where this one goes, but he could absolutely dominate if he grapples. Iwo Baraniewski by Round One Submission
Alessandro Costa -550 vs Matt Schnell +400
- Anthony: Next is a fight between Matt Schnell and Alessandro Costa who is the biggest betting favorite on the card. This is a short notice appearance for Costa who replaces Imanol Rodriguez for this fight. Both fighters made the catchweight limit of 130 pounds and that extra allowance should benefit Costa. The Brazilian is very big and strong for a flyweight with a massive upper back. Schnell is a fighter that I also fade constantly here at the end of his career. He is 36 years old now with losses in four of his last five fights. However, Costa is still not a fighter that I would overinvest in at these odds. Last year in a short notice fight against Alden Coria we saw Costa look absolutely terrible. He was -370 in that fight and could not survive to see the scorecards. Schnell seems unlikely to pull off this upset but perhaps he has one quality win left in him. Schnell has the better boxing fundamentals while Costa lands with power in his short hooks. He will look for takedowns here against Schnell and I think a likely outcome in this fight is a Costa finish via ground and pound. Schnell will eat punches throughout this bout and fail to win many positions. Alessandro Costa by Round One KO
- Nick: Alessandro Costa is relatively well rounded with six of his fifteen professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s extremely aggressive no matter where his fights go, but that sometimes comes at the expense of his defense. He’s a powerful striker and effective in scrambles, but his cardio and durability both do seem to be areas in which he can be exploited. Costa is 3-3 in the UFC, coming off an impressive KO win over Stewart Nicoll back in April. Matt Schnell is sometimes considered a slow starter, but he has underrated power on the feet. His striking is decent, but his offensive grappling is his greatest strength as a BJJ black belt with ten of his seventeen professional wins coming by way of submission. His durability/chin is of major concern, as he’s been finished in nine of his ten professional losses. Schnell will be dangerous early here, but as this fight wears on I expect his age will start to show. Costa is a slow starter, but the more durable fighter in this match-up and he’s the type of potent finisher that Schnell has struggled against lately. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO
Bryce Mitchell -140 vs Santiago Luna +115
- Anthony: This is a bantamweight matchup between Santiago Luna and Bryce Mitchell. I was very impressed by Mitchell in his move down to bantamweight and the victory he earned facing Said Nurmagomedov last summer. It should not be a surprise that the former ranked featherweight has the grappling chops to really smother a lot of opponents at this weight. Mitchell shows his strength when wrestling and generally pushes at a fast pace that does not make him tired. Luna has impressed so far as a professional but this is a massive step up in competition. This is a short notice appearance for Luna but even in a loss I expect this fight to give him a great lesson in addressing takedowns and fighting off of his back. Most of Luna’s career thus far has been fighting in boxing matches against very mediocre opponents. Mitchell will sap his energy here by bringing him down to the ground as many times as he needs to. Mitchell does not have much striking offense but he does defend well and time good counters when getting overwhelmed. He is the more proven veteran with skills to win this fight by finish but also on the judge’s scorecards. I like Mitchell a lot at these odds but after seeing him on the scales I cannot say that I am very confident. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
- Nick: Bryce Mitchell is coming off a narrow decision win over Said Nurmagomedov, a fight that saw him moving down a weight class after struggling to climb the rankings at featherweight. His striking continues to improve, but there is no denying his game plan is almost always to wrestle and grapple both early and often. Mitchell is a talented wrestler with solid BJJ offensively and excellent cardio. He can fight at a fast pace, and he can find openings on the feet when his opponents are overly concerned that he’ll be looking to take them down. He now has a size advantage over a decent number of fighters in his division, but it seems his skills have hit a plateau as he mostly trains at his own gym on his farm in Arkansas. Santiago Luna is 8-0 professionally and just 21 years old. He is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off an impressive decision win over Angel Pacheco back in February. Luna is relatively well-rounded, with three wins via KO and four via submission. He’s a fluid striker with a solid understanding of footwork. He fights at a torrid pace and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to move backwards. Additionally, his offensive grappling is extremely underrated and could prove to be his greatest skill as he climbs the ranks in the promotion. Mitchell needs to wrestle aggressively here as he’s going to be outclassed at striking range. I slightly prefer the Mitchell side with Luna taking this fight on short notice. This is another low confidence pick. Bryce Mitchell by Decision
Fares Ziam -300 vs Tom Nolan +240
- Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan. Both men here enter on impressive winning streaks. Ziam has been victorious in six straight fights including two wins by knockout. He is a very technically skilled striker, opposing foes at kickboxing range and picking them apart with his long range weapons. Ziam does very well staying away from danger and landing consistent output, even when not every strike is very fast or meaningful. Nolan is much more dynamic and reliant on the finish in order to win. Ziam should hold serve here as the betting favorite standing, countering Nolan and placing strikes on his chin. It would be a surprising upset if Nolan was able to find an early knockout but that is exactly how he tends to fight. Nolan could also benefit from grappling here and showing off his jiu jitsu blackbelt. He is live to win by submission but Ziam has also done very well defending against opponents on the ground. Ziam averages 71 percent takedown defense and that figure continues to improve. Nazim Sadykhov had no success grappling against Ziam in his last fight and I rate Sadykhov even higher than Nolan. We will see Ziam avoid risks early in this fight and he will beat Nolan down the stretch. Fares Ziam by Decision
- Nick: Fares Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 18-4 professionally, and he enters this fight on an impressive six-fight win streak. While it is true he fights somewhat conservatively, he’s been making major improvements from fight to fight. His defensive grappling has come a long way since he made his promotional debut, and it seems he’s added enough size and strength to his frame to start finding finishes on the feet more consistently. Tom Nolan 26-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Five of his ten professional wins have come via KO. He is 4-1 in the UFC, and he enters this fight on a four fight win streak. Nolan is quick and athletic, and he has finishing ability on the mat or at striking range. However, as dangerous as he is offensively his durability and cardio have not been strengths for him so far in his young career. Nolan will be dangerous if he can take this fight to the mat, but I expect he has trouble closing the distance. Ziam has far superior footwork and he is the much better technical striker in this match-up. That should be enough for the favorite to extend his win streak. Fares Ziam by Round Three KO
Brendan Allen -200 vs Edmen Shahbazyan +160
- Anthony: This co-main event is a fight at middleweight between Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan. This is a compelling matchup because here we will see an elite striker facing a top tier grappler. On paper, Allen does appear much better than Shahbazyan upon comparing resumes and seeing who each has beat. Allen continues to improve with each appearance and he won both of his last fights in 2025. It is good that he has been training consistently with Khamzat Chimaev and Baisangur Susurkaev to also continue to grow as a wrestler. Shahbazyan has always struggled against grapplers and opponents that can drag him down to the mat. It is a great matchup for Allen if he can just stay out of danger early on. Shahbazyan is lethal in round one but historically he tends to fall apart after those first five minutes. It is also notable that Shahbazyan trains at Xtreme Couture. Teammates Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland both hold decisive victories against Allen. Shahbazyan could perhaps capitalize and land a kick that kills Allen but I think he lacks in key areas that separate him from those teammates. Curtis and Strickland both gave Allen issues because of their takedown defense and willingness to grapple. Here I am expecting Allen to glue himself to Shahbazyan and easily win thanks to his wrestling. Brendan Allen by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Fourteen of Brendan Allen’s twenty-six professional wins have come via submission. He has excellent BJJ, with a solid wrestling base, but he sometimes makes questionable decisions in many of his fights. He often plays into the strengths of his opponents and he seems overly emotional at times as he engages in brawls. His striking continues to show improvements, which isn’t surprising as he has made major strides in that area ever since he shifted to an excellent camp in Valley Flow Striking. He can be a slow starter at times, but he has excellent cardio and durability and he has found a lot of recent success taking over as his fights wear on. Edmen Shahbazyan is one of the more intriguing up-and-comers at middleweight. He’s only 28, but he’s already shown flashes of elite level striking and a serious ability to finish fights early. While his striking seems to be his greatest strength, Shabazyan also has a Brown Belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. He was once considered a future top contender at 185, but he has been wildly inconsistent since making his debut. He’s always dangerous early, but his cardio and durability seem to deplete rapidly when he can’t find a quick finish. Allen will need to stay safe early here, but as this fight wears on his superior cardio and durability should shine through. Shabazyan is live for a quick upset, but beyond that I expect he’s outclassed in this one. Brendan Allen by Round Two Submission
Belal Muhammad -120 vs Gabriel Bonfim +100
- Anthony: The main event will be a welterweight matchup between Gabriel Bonfim and Belal Muhammad. Bonfim continues to make proper ascent up the rankings and we could be witnessing a very special talent if the wins do continue to stack. He has suffered one career loss to Nicolas Dalby but responded in great fashion since then. Bonfim got a co-main event win over Stephen Thompson and in the main event his last time out he stopped Randy Brown. I believe that Bonfim is fully prepared for the fight that he is getting here from the former champion. Muhammad has the cardio and clinch attacks to win against anyone over the course of five rounds when allowed to control the fight. Bonfim’s work here in the first three rounds will likely be enough to decide this matchup. Leg kicks should work great here against Muhammad as he pressures forward, and his grappling attacks will be nullified by Bonfim on the mat. Muhammad cannot use his wrestling to much of an advantage here facing this elite jiu jitsu practitioner. Bonfim has thirteen career wins by submission and he could be the first to ever submit Muhammad tonight. He is technically great when it comes to finishing chokes and using submission attempts to reverse position. Bonfim is also nine years younger than Muhammad and the taller fighter by two-inches. His striking has improved and at range I do not think Muhammad will dominate Bonfim like some handicappers may suggest. These odds have closed significantly with Muhammad favored by even more earlier in the week. I am taking Bonfim but I would not bet him at any worse than even odds. Gabriel Bonfim by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Belal Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. Muhammad will have a grappling advantage here, but he notably enters this fight coming off back-to-back losses for the first time of his professional career. Gabriel Bonfim is an aggressive fighter and a potent finisher no matter where his fights go. Thirteen of his nineteen professional wins have come via submission and four have come via KO. He’s an explosive striker who sometimes leaves himself there to be countered, but his speed and ability to roll with powerful strikes have him a class ahead on the feet of a majority of this division. His wrestling is decent, but he has outstanding BJJ. He’s a submission over position grappler and it’s very rare he doesn’t aggressively pursue finishes if he can drag his opponent to the mat. In this particular match-up, Bonfim is expected to try to keep things standing. Bonfim is the better athlete and the more potent finisher in this match-up, but I expect Belal can lead the dance and mostly lean on his wrestling to win minutes. He has the better cardio in this match-up, and Bonfim really hasn’t been tested against anyone close to Muhammad’s level. Belal Muhammad by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com