UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland – Full Card Analysis

UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland – 5.9.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland. This will be one of the year’s best fight cards of the year taking place tonight in Newark New Jersey. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 122-54-3 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 116-60-3 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 5-8-2026 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Jose Ochoa -185 vs Clayton Carpenter +150

• Anthony: Opening the card are the flyweights Clayton Carpenter and Jose Ochoa. These fighters are both looking to get back into the win column although the competition faced so far has been strong. Ochoa’s defeats came at the hands of Asu Almabayev and Lone’er Kavanagh. I am concerned with the takedown defense he has displayed, but this is a 25 year old that should continue to improve. He trains at Chute Box Diego Lima and has a very aggressive striking style. I am a fan of his powerful boxing and muay thai attacks. It is hard to rely on knockout artists at this low weight class but Ochoa is very hard hitting. All of his victories have come inside of the distance. Carpenter is going to have a hard time keeping up here with his hands. This is a fighter that can get it done with his wrestling and grappling but I need to see him actually make that happen before betting on it. Only one of Carpenter’s fights have seen him convert multiple takedown attempts. Utilizing a wrestling heavy gameplan and hoping to tire out Ochoa into round three seems like a clear path for the underdog. Carpenter will threaten with submissions too on the mat but I do not think Ochoa will end up getting choked or badly fading. The southpaw will impress by landing clean combos and strikes that do visible damage. Jose Ochoa by Decision
• Nick: Jose Ochoa is 1-2 in the UFC, coming off a hard fought decision loss to Asu Almabayev in a fight in which he was significantly outgrappled. Ochoa is primarily a striker as it seems he mostly prefers to stand and trade. He trains out of Chute Box in Brazil, a camp known for their aggressive sparring sessions and their kill-or-be-killed style. He has solid durability and footwork, and his aggressive fighting pace makes him a tough opponent for anyone to handle. He has serious power for a flyweight, and he has the cardio to fight at a torrid pace for the better part of fifteen minutes. Clayton Carpenter is a strong grappler with advanced BJJ offensively. He’s a decent striker at range capable of putting power behind his strikes, but he throws from odd angles which can leave him open to be countered. He is 8-2 professionally and 29-years old, but relatively speaking he is still early in his development as a prospect. Carpenter could pull off the upset here if he can keep Ochoa grounded, but I expect this fight mostly takes place on the feet. Ochoa’s power is elite for the division, and Carpenter’s striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. Jose Ochoa by Round Two KO

Baisangur Susurkaev -700 vs Djorden Santos +500

• Anthony: Next is a middleweight fight between Djorden Santos and Baisangur Susurkaev. The big favorite Susurkaev is still undefeated and 11-0 overall. He trains with Khamzat Chimaev and once again Susurkaev appears on his undercard. The future is extremely bright for this 25 year old who Khamzat claims to be even better than he is. He has 79-inch reach and great footwork, flowing in the pocket and ripping into opponents with very powerful strikes. Susurkaev will likely keep Santos at range, using front kicks and other weapons to prevent him from entering the pocket. Santos is a very high-volume striker that wants to engage Susurkaev in a brawl. His boxing is good and the chin shown by Santos has also been rock solid. I hope that the Chechen will weaponize his wrestling to win this fight more easily. Santos has not faced a high level of competition and this is a grappler that could certainly expose him on the ground. Susurkaev has also gotten clipped before by fighting too recklessly in the pocket. He will certainly be coached to grapple and hunt for submissions here. I am confidently betting on Susurkaev and pairing him with Chimaev in many parlays. Baisangur Susurkaev by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Baisangur Susurkaev is one of the more exciting prospects to break into the promotion over the past few years. He is 11-0 professionally and one of the main training partners of UFC Middleweight Champion, Khamzat Chimaev. Susurkaev is an extremely gifted striker at range. He fights loosely, but aggressively. He has excellent footwork. He does a good job baiting his opponents into powerful shots and he has true KO power in all of his limbs. While he’s certainly most gifted on the feet, he’s also a solid wrestler with dangerous offensive grappling ability and above average takedown defense. As talented as he is offensively, his defense does seem to be questionable at times as he’s over confident in close exchanges. He takes more damage than he should in most of his fights and he has a habit of coasting at times as well. At 28 years old, Djorden Santos is 11-2 professionally. He’s generally well rounded, with three wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. At his best, Santos is a dangerous striker at range, especially early in his fights. He seems to have decent offensive BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the wrestling to take fights to the mat consistently. He has excellent durability as he’s never been KO’d professionally, but he’s in a difficult spot here against a heavy favorite in Sursukaev. Santos could extend this fight and make things interesting, but it seems more likely we see Susurkaev outclass him by a considerable margin. The line is too wide here, but I do expect the favorite to mix in his grappling on his way to another victory. Baisangur Susurkaev by Round Two Submission

Pat Sabatini -165 vs William Gomis +135

• Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight between Pat Sabatini and William Gomis. I am confidently picking Sabatini to win here in front of the local crowd in New Jersey. The odds have been closing and this is a great price to bet. Sabatini is an elite jiu jitsu practitioner, training with the team at Renzo Gracie and boasting a BJJ black belt. He has 13 professional wins by submission. We have actually seen some solid grappling out of Gomis since joining the promotion, but here the French fighter seems totally outmatched. Gomis is taller than Sabatini with a three-inch advantage in reach. He would certainly prefer to keep this fight standing, landing from range against Sabatini and scoring with his kicks. However, Gomis does not pose much of a threat to knock out Sabatini standing. We will see Sabatini pursuing the takedowns here early without much regard for what offense Gomis has thrown. Gomis averages 72 percent takedown defense but the issue here will be fighting out of those poor positions once he has been taken down. Sabatini should easily control two rounds of this fight by taking Gomis’ back and manipulating his body here on the ground. Sabatini has now won three straight fights and with another today he will likely be back ranked inside of the top fifteen. Pat Sabatini by Decision
• Nick: Pat Sabatini is a well-rounded fighter with decent striking ability and slick BJJ. He is excellent in scrambles, he has shown solid body-lock takedown ability and his greatest strength comes via his strong wrestling base and takedown entries. Sabatini is 10-5 professionally, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2023. William Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges, and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. This fight becomes a question of how often things take place at striking range. I could certainly see this fight going either way, but I am seeing Sabatini as the rightful favorite. Gomis has decent takedown defense, but Sabatini’s grappling should prevent him from really opening up at range. I also don’t expect Gomis has the power to crack Sabatini’s questionable chin. Pat Sabatini by Decision

Marco Tulio -185 vs Roman Kopylov +150

• Anthony: This battle between middleweights features potent knockout threats with Marco Tulio facing Roman Kopylov. In his last appearance, Tulio was favored facing Christian Leroy Duncan. He landed throughout that matchup but Duncan was far more accurate and successful stopping Tulio before the end of round two. I am interested to see if Tulio is still his aggressive self after that knockout left him flat on the canvas. The Brazilian seems to be a bit overrated, with many wins coming against lackluster competition. Kopylov is another opponent with legitimate hands and footwork to matchup with Tulio on the feet. Kopylov is the less potent finisher but he is very technically sound and economical with his offensive attacks. Kopylov can land kicks here against Tulio and hopefully keep him fighting on the back foot. This is also a fighter that will be extremely hard to stop using strikes. The only losses for Kopylov coming inside of the distance were losses by submission. In this match Kopylov has the advantage grappling and nothing to fear from Tulio apart from his hands. I prefer Kopylov as a moderate betting underdog as every one of these rounds should be extremely close to call. Roman Kopylov by Decision
• Nick: Marco Tulio is 31-years old, 14-2 professionally, and coming off an ugly KO loss to a tough out in Christian Leroy Duncan. Tulio is primarily a striker, with ten of his fourteen professional wins coming via KO. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, and he mixes spinning attacks into his combinations better than most UFC-level middleweights. Tulio is an explosive athlete and undeniably a prospect to keep an eye on, but his kill-or-be-killed style can make him a volatile fighter to back as a favorite. Roman Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a good job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph many of his bigger shots. He has won six of his last eight fights, but he’s coming off back-to-back losses to tough outs in Paulo Costa as well as Gregory Rodrigues. His grappling has improved a lot since he made his debut, but defensively it is still a bit of a hole in his game. Tulio is explosive and the better athlete in this match up, but Kopylov has the skills to pull this out as an underdog. His counter-striking style should benefit him here against an aggressive opponent. A low confidence play, but I have trouble backing Tulio at this price. Roman Kopylov by Decision

Jared Gordon -330 vs Jim Miller +250

• Anthony: Here we should see a good scrap between veteran lightweights Jim Miller and Jared Gordon. These are two local fighters with Gordon representing New York and Miller representing New Jersey. At the age of 42 there are not many winnable fights left for Miller in the UFC but Gordon is similar in terms of his age and skills at this current juncture. Gordon is the more reliable fighter, consistently engaging in fights where he is pressuring forward and walking down opponents using his boxing. I am expecting that we see a fight between these two mostly on the feet with Gordon leading the dance and Miller working to counter in between. Miller still has power and quality wrestling, but he is an easy target to hit and Gordon will certainly find it easy to land offense against him. Watch to see what happens here in round one as Miller can probably establish his range and land quality strikes before Gordon begins opening up. Gordon has struggled in the past when opposing southpaw fighters. This fight will likely go to the scorecards and although Gordon is the rightful favorite, I advise against betting him at odds this wide. Miller will have a chance to steal this decision and he also seems like the more likely fighter to win via finish today. Jim Miller by Decision
• Nick: Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, and he’s built a name on fighting competitively against a high level of competition. Gordon works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. At 37-years old he’s one of the older fighters in the division, but he’s still a tough out for any lightweight outside of the top-15. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and twenty-one of his thirty-eight professional wins have come via submission. He has won six of his last nine fights, but at 42-years old he is certainly in the downturn of his career. These are two similar fighters, but Miller seems further past his prime than Gordon is. Miller will be dangerous early, but I expect Gordon to pull away as this fight wears on. Jared Gordon by Decision

Grant Dawson -160 vs Mateusz Rebecki +135

• Anthony: Here is a fight between lightweights Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki. Although Dawson has previously been inside of the rankings we saw him suffer a bad knockout loss in his most recent appearance. Dawson will be quick to get his grappling going in this fight rather than making another mistake getting caught on the chin. Rebecki does have better boxing than Dawson and he poses a threat to finish him in this matchup. Dawson is expected to urgently shoot and chain wrestle throughout this fight. He is averaging 3.81 takedowns landed per fight and controlling opponents well once they are down there. This will be critical for Dawson today as Rebecki will be bringing a brawl to him. Dawson does not seem to like getting hit while Rebecki has now been featured in three straight Fight of the Night performances. Dawson bettors are in for a sweaty time watching this fight as he is extremely reliant on the takedown. Thankfully Rebecki has only so far shown 50 percent takedown defense. Dawson should be able to win here today easily accruing more than five minutes of control time. Grant Dawson by Decision
• Nick: Grant Dawson’s striking continues to improve, but there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He is 23-3-1 professionally, holding impressive wins over Damir Ismagulov, Jared Gordon, and most recently Diego Ferreira. Dawson has made dramatic improvements since he moved camps to the American Top Team. His cardio and overall fight IQ have improved dramatically. While his striking has come a long way, he’s still primarily a wrestler and on the feet he can be very vulnerable against quality competition. Mateusz Rebecki is 20-4 professionally, and the former FEN Lightweight Champion. He’s coming off a narrow decision loss which came in a war against L’udovit Klein back in October of 2025. Rebecki is a gifted grappler with solid striking ability and a seemingly very high Fight IQ. He makes effective decisions in the heat of battle, he does a good job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents and he’s very strong for the division. All that being said, he’s going to struggle to find consistent success at this level if he can’t conserve enough energy to stay effective until the scorecards. Additionally, he seems more hittable in exchanges than he did in his debut. This is another binary match up in which Dawson should dominate if he can keep this fight grounded. That being said, Rebecki is competent enough on the mat that I expect he can work his way back to his feet repeatedly. Another low confidence play, but I like the underdog again here. Dawson’s durability is a major liability. Mateusz Rebecki by Round Two KO

Yaroslav Amosov -185 vs Joel Alvarez +150

• Anthony: This is a fun matchup at welterweight between Joel Alvarez and Yaroslav Amosov. The debut for Amosov came last December as he stopped Neil Magny by anaconda choke in round one. This fighter loves the frontheadlock series and submissions that are available from that position. He is strong for this weight class and normally comfortable throughout grappling exchanges. He has not always faced the best competition but Amosov was 27-0 before his final appearance fighting in Bellator. He has tighter boxing combinations too compared to Alvarez who is more reckless. Moments on the feet here will be interesting because of Alvarez’ size and the weapons he has at range. Amosov will be tasked with closing the distance here safely as Alvarez can sometimes be a bit wild unleashing combinations on the feet. Alvarez also has a problem when it comes to fighting off of his back too often. The Spaniard is confident in his submission abilities, but it seems very unlikely that he could finish an armbar or triangle against somebody as experienced as Amosov. I think throughout this fight Amosov will take good positions against Alvarez who is just too sloppy to warrant betting at this price tag. Amosov has a great chance to end this fight by landing ground and pound or snatching up Alvarez’ neck. Between them these two fighters have combined for 29 career submissions. Yaroslav Amosov by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Yaroslav Amosov enters this match up with a 29-1 professional record at 32 years old, coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut over Neil Magny. Amosov is a former Bellator Welterweight Champion, with notable wins over Douglas Lima, Logan Storley, and Ed Ruth. Amosov is extremely well rounded, with a decorated resume in Sambo and Combat Sambo as well as MMA. He doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but he’s highly technical and he carries one shot KO power. He’s a dangerous grappler who can take his opponents down with a wide variety of trips and sweeps. He has effective BJJ and can be a finisher on the mat, and his fight IQ has also been a strength for him so far in his professional career. Joel Alvarez looked great his last time out in a dominant win over Vicente Luque. . He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ black-belt with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s coming off four straight wins under the UFC banner, but he’s going to be tested here as he’s taking on one of the more recognizable names at 170 lbs. Alvarez has the offensive BJJ to dangerous on the mat here and I do see him as the better striker in this match up. That being said, he’s too comfortable chasing submissions off his back. Amosov should record takedowns with ease, and I expect he’ll find a finish on the mat here by ground and pound. Yaroslav Amosov by Round Three KO

Ateba Gautier -1600 vs Ozzy Diaz +800

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a matchup at middleweight between Ateba Gautier and Ozzy Diaz. This matchup was actually scheduled to take place last fall before Diaz withdrew due to injury. It seems that the promotion is going to go ahead with this matchup to further build one of the best prospects. Gautier is a physical specimen and one of the most dynamic athletes currently on the roster. He is 6’4 with an 81” reach, currently the longest at middleweight. The 24 year old is going to continue to get better with every performance and he is already a monster. In Gautier’s matchup against Andrey Pulyaev, the southpaw look and footwork gave Gautier problems closing the distance. Gautier still won in that matchup but now he will learn from it and to more effectively set up his strikes. It was also a benefit that he got to go the full three round distance in that bout. Gautier continues to check all of the boxes and Diaz is the type of opponent he should slice through. This is a brawler that tends to get after it with opponents on the feet. Diaz favors offense over defense and that is going to be recipe for disaster as he opposes Gautier. Diaz does not have quality takedowns or any backup gameplan either. It feels like he is a dead man walking ahead of this fight. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO
• Nick: Ateba Gautier is just 24 years old, and 10-1 professionally. Primarily a striker, all but two of his professional wins has come by KO. He carries a lot of momentum into this fight and he’s now 4-0 in the UFC, but he’s still far from developed in terms of his overall technical ability. He’s an explosive athlete and he’s dangerous no matter where his fights go, but he can be hittable in exchanges and he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come to him. Additionally, there is a chance his hyper-aggressive style could eventually cost him if his fights are extended as he starts to take on better opponents. Lucky for him, he’s in another extremely favorable match up here against Ozzy Diaz. Ozzy Diaz is primarily a striker, with seven of his professional wins having come via KO. He fights out of a solid camp via Kings MMA, but he’s 1-1 in the UFC and got a late start in the promotion as he is now 35 years old. He is a decent boxer offensively, but he doesn’t move much when he’s in the cage. It’s also concerning for him in this match up that he has been KO’d in all three of his professional losses. The line here feels a bit ridiculous, but Gautier should find the finish here. Diaz is simply too hittable to withstand the favorite’s power early. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

King Green -400 vs Jeremy Stephens +300

• Anthony: The main card begins with this fight between King Green and Jeremy Stephens. At weigh-ins, Stephens was well over the lightweight limit coming in at 160 pounds. It feels like he is showing up to collect one last check here today. I would be very surprised to see Stephens win another fight in the promotion. His last matchup was a loss against Mike Perry fighting BKFC and I doubt Stephens has been training any grappling at this stage of his career. He has only won a single fight in MMA since beating Josh Emmett back in 2018. There is no reason to get excited about a 39 year old Stephens competing this weekend. Stephens’ heavy hands and boxing make him seem dangerous but Green is a much higher level striker. I have liked the recent form from King Green winning in both of his previous appearances. He keeps his hands down when he is fighting but Green can get away with it thanks to great speed and defensive awareness. I expect that Green will dominate here in any grappling exchange. He will lead the dance standing and pick apart Stephens with great boxing combinations. Still, it is difficult to ever bet on Green at -400 given his fan-friendly style and questionable durability with more than 50 fights in his rearview. King Green by Round Two Submission
• Nick: King ‘Bobby’ Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. Green is getting up there in age, but he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. Jeremy Stephens made his debut in the UFC in 2007, and then stuck on the roster for the majority of the 14 years that followed. He was cut from the roster in 2021, after failing to secure a victory in each of his last six match ups. Stephens is relatively well-rounded, but he’s built a name for himself at striking range. His kill-or-be-killed style is often described as fan friendly, but his general recklessness has also cost him in many of his fights against quality level competition. He’s decent on the mat, but his submission defense is questionable at best. He returned to the UFC in 2025 against Mason Jones, where he lost a convincing but fun decision to a much younger fighter. The line feels wide here as Green isn’t always sound defensively and Stephens carries a lot of power in his strikes. That being said, I do expect the favorite to stay a step ahead in this one. He should have a speed advantage and his understanding of footwork will make it difficult for Stephens to consistently close the distance. King Green by Decision

Sean Brady -160 vs Joaquin Buckley +135

• Anthony: Next is a great fight at welterweight between Joaquin Buckley and Sean Brady. This is a great clash of styles and one of the toughest bouts to handicap on tonight’s card. Both men are desperate to hold onto their ranking after losing in their most recent performances. Buckley has been out of action for nearly a year after losing against Kamaru Usman. This is now the third consecutive grappler that Buckley is getting matched against. He averages 72 percent takedown defense but of course Usman was able to ground Buckley in their fight. Brady is not a very proficient wrestler but he does find a way to drag opponents down to the mat. Brady is an elite jiu jitsu practitioner that should hold a decisive advantage over Buckley in terms of technical skill. Once these two get rolling tonight, Brady should do his best job smothering Buckley and controlling him completely. It sounds like an easy night in the office for Brady but it will certainly not be as simple as that. Buckley is a gamer that will continue to work through positions even if he is outclassed. He is a physical specimen with much more power than Brady standing. It will only take a few clean shots from Buckley landing to change the complexion of this fight. I expect Brady to secure the scorecards here, while Buckley’s one win condition is a knockout. His KO prop is listed very high despite questions surrounding Brady’s chin and overall durability. Sean Brady by Decision
• Nick: Sean Brady is one of the more exciting prospects we have at welterweight, but he was brutally KO’d his last time out against Michael Morales. Brady is a decent offensive striker and competent on the feet, but his greatest strength is certainly his extremely strong and powerful grappler ability. He has elite submission ability as a decorated black belt in jiu jitsu, and he’s strong enough to take his opponents’ necks from unconventional positions. Even before he was a fully developed talent, Joaquin Buckley’s knockout ability made him an easy sell for the promotion. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s made major improvements in all facets and his game since then, but he was dominated on the mat his last time out on his way to an ugly decision loss to Kamaru Usman. This is yet another binary match up in which Brady’s striking and durability is a bit concerning. Still, I see him as the rightful favorite. Brady is an excellent grappler, and Buckley was recently exposed on the mat. Sean Brady by Round Two Submission

Alexander Volkov -160 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +135

• Anthony: The featured bout is a fight between ranked heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. This fight represents a significant step up in competition for Cortes-Acosta who was victorious against Derrick Lewis in January. He has steadily built himself into one of this division’s top contenders, winning by knockout in three consecutive fights. Cortes-Acosta is a heavyweight with a great jab and attacks from range. This matchup facing Volkov will be interesting because these two are so similar in terms of their size and striking ability. Both men will throw their kicks here but Volkov has the more potent weapons from range. Cortes-Acosta will try to hit his counter right on Volkov as these two start to let their hands go. The Dominican is the much faster athlete and quicker to the punch despite ceding a bit of reach here. I love his chances of beating Volkov in this fight but worry about the Russian perhaps grappling and stealing rounds using the takedown. Cortes-Acosta has not been tested much when it comes to fighting off prolonged grappling attacks. Here I’ll take the underdog odds at heavyweight in this close matchup. I like that Cortes-Acosta remains very active while continuing to improve between each fight. He has excellent momentum right now and I expect that he can threaten to stop Volkov. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision
• Nick: Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well and works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, he has a massive frame, and his grappling has come a long way since he made his UFC debut. He has five four of his last six fights, with the only loss coming against Ciyrl Gane in a controversial decision. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 10-2 in the UFC and he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He is athletic for a heavyweight, he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. He has solid technical striking ability, but he mostly throws to set up his powerful overhand right. This is a volatile match up, but I do prefer the Volkov side. His footwork is on a level above Cortes-Acosta. He’ll have a reach advantage here and I expect his jab will be a major key to victory. Alexander Volkov by Decision

Tatsuro Taira -160 vs Joshua Van +135

• Anthony: The co-main event will decide the flyweight champion between Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van. This will likely not be the only career meeting between these two young athletes at the top of the sport. I am very excited to see how this matchup plays out with such different styles. Taira is 18-1 overall and now really filled into his body. The 26 year old is looking to become Japan’s first ever world champion. His jiu jitsu and wrestling always causes opponents to scramble hard but recently Taira has made massive developments in terms of his striking. Taira is very fast on his feet and capable of hanging against the best in this division. On the ground, Taira does not always hold winning wrestling positions but normally he can at least get a few minutes of control time before ultimately getting reversed. In the moments that these two athletes are rolling, Taira will be at advantage as Van cannot land offensive strikes. Van will need to be massively improved in terms of his grappling defense in order to win this bout. I am expecting most of these scrambles to end with Taira securing a great position on Van and even threatening toward a finish. Van has been taken down in most of his appearances and I worry that in this matchup he will end up exposing his back. He is accustomed to starting his fights rather slowly and gaining momentum once opponents start to wear down. Van will certainly be live for a late finish here in this matchup if his boxing combinations start to become overwhelming for Taira. Bettors that are interested in taking Van should probably wait to attack sportsbooks live after round one. Taira will build a lead on these scorecards early thanks to his grappling. There is some value in the defending champion who was only +180 in his matchup against Alexandre Pantoja. However, I think this is a fight that Taira will win thanks to his great range of skills. And New. Tatsuro Taira by Decision
• Nick: Tatsuro Taira is just twenty-six years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level wrestling and BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a submission win over a former champion in Brandon Moreno. While he is skilled everywhere, he is certainly a grappler first and it would be surprising if he didn’t aggressively pursue takedowns in this match up. The UFC Flyweight Champion, Joshua Van, is 16-2 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. For a 24-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. He’s quickly developed a reputation as a fighter who gets better as his fighters wear on and he enters this fight on a six fight win streak. He captured the title against Alexandre Pantoja his last time out, but it came with controversy as Pantoja injured his arm just 26 seconds into the fight. This one could go either way, but I’m siding with the grappler in Taira. Van’s takedown defense has served him well, but he’s yet to face a grappler on Taira’s level. Taira would be wise not to spend too much time on his feet here, but I expect he can become the first male UFC Champion out of Japan. And New. Tatsuro Taira by Round Three Submission

Khamzat Chimaev -550 vs Sean Strickland +400

• Anthony: The main event decides the middleweight championship with Khamzat Chimaev defending his belt against Sean Strickland. These two have formerly trained with one another and bring a heated rivalry into this fight. Undefeated still at 15-0, it will take more than trash talk to beat Khamzat Chimaev. The champion made weight yesterday without issue and now looks to encore what was an all-time performance in his last fight. His elite grappling presents a challenge that nobody has yet had an answer to. Chimaev always shoots in the first minute and has taken down each opponent so far. He utilizes a very low single-leg shot to initiate exchanges before transitioning to a body lock from the back. Opponents get caught out of position as Khamzat switches stances back into orthodox to shoot. Nobody can explode from one position to another as quickly and efficiently as Chimaev. He has shown his grappling is on another level with great top pressure and control from top position. He should be applauded for his efficiency in that title fight against Dricus Du Plessis last year. Chimaev controlled him there for more than 21 total minutes while landing 529 total strikes. Chimaev will follow a similar gameplan here, taking down Strickland and working toward positions like the mount. Strickland has never been submitted before but this is a fighter that will be relentlessly testing his ability to wrestle and defend chokes. Strickland seemingly has the cardio to fight this style for five rounds and that will be needed in order to win. Strickland will have to get his hands on Chimaev at some point of this fight and even when he does he is not a very lethal striker. Strickland does need to be applauded for his last fight in January, stopping Anthony Hernandez who was riding an eight-fight winning streak. Chimaev is familiar with Strickland’s weapons on the feet and he will be careful to avoid teeps and jabs. This should be a matchup where Chimaev can once again display this strength and technique are far superior to opponents. Strickland has pulled off upsets of this size before but this fight would need to play out perfectly for him to end up with his hand raised. Chimaev will smother Strickland here throughout the fight’s first fifteen minutes. And Still. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Three Submission
• Nick: The UFC Middleweight Champion, Khamzat Chimaev, is one of the more talented fighters that the UFC has ever seen. He’s an extremely talented grappler, known to lift his opponents fully in the air, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he throws devastating ground-and-pound while boasting an advanced arsenal of submissions. He’s an underrated striker with true KO power and even before he broke into the UFC he had been touted by many as a future champion. He fulfilled that prophecy his last time out, dominating Dricus Du Plessis for five rounds. Sean Strickland, a former Middleweight Champion, has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s  an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. The line feels a bit wide here as Strickland is the better striker in this match up, but Chimaev’s grappling advantage can not be understated. He’ll need to pace himself if he can’t find an early finish, but I see the favorite dominating here on the mat. And Still. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com