UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer – Full Card Analysis

UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer – 3.28.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer. This is an event stacked with great talent taking place at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 79-24-0 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 71-32-0 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 3-27-2026 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Alexia Thainara -750 vs Bruna Brasil +525

• Anthony: The card begins here with this women’s strawweight matchup between Alexia Thainara and Bruna Brasil. Thainara is one of the biggest betting favorites on this fight card. She is a black belt in jiu jitsu with eight career wins coming by way of submission. Her most recent win was also a quality victory over the likes of Loma Lookboonmee. Facing Bruna Brasil seems like a step down in competition for Thainara. Brasil has alternated wins and losses throughout her previous eight fights. She is a tough Brazilian with solid boxing and good durability but little threat to opponents on the mat. Thainara will be able to win every minute of this fight as she pursues takedowns and accrues control time here against Brasil. She is also a much bigger fighter. Thainara is improving as a striker and she will be the faster athlete on the feet. I am very confident picking Thainara to win here today. Alexia Thainara by Decision
• Nick: Alexia Thainara is 13-1 professionally, with seven of those thirteen wins coming via submission. She’s small for the division, but she’s well-rounded and it seems she’s improving dramatically every time we see her in the cage. She’s extremely aggressive, and while unconventional she does have a knack for securing takedowns against a wide range of competition. Bruna Brasil is 11-6-1 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO and two via submission. Brasil is strong with a large frame for the division. She’s shown a well-rounded skill set, but there is no denying she has found most of her success on the mat against inferior grapplers. She’s decent on the feet, but she is as hittable as she is dangerous in extended striking exchanges. It does seem she is mostly improving from fight to fight, which is likely due to the fact she has recently been training with an excellent camp via Fighting Nerds in Brazil. Thinara can be over aggressive at times, but she is the much better grappler in this match-up. She’s going to be the aggressor here, and Brasil has had issues against fighters that are willing to force her to move backwards. I’m backing the favorite here to win this one via finish. Alexia Thainara by Round Two Submission

Ricky Simon -185 vs Adrian Yanez +150

• Anthony: Next is a good fight at bantamweight between Adrian Yanez and Ricky Simon. I think this is a very compelling matchup as both men are talented athletes that find themselves fighting outside of the division rankings. Simon is a slight favorite despite falling short in his most recent appearance against Raoni Barcelos. It does appear Simon is a bit limited in terms of his ceiling and true skillset inside of the ring. He was stuffed on seven of eight takedown attempts in that last fight. It is critical that Simon is able to grapple more effectively here or else I expect him to be chewed up by Yanez’ striking. Simon is competing here at home in Washington and up against an opponent that he should be able to wrestle. However, Yanez is always tough to go against given his immense skill boxing and quick hands on offense. Simon has been dropped before by the left hook and I think Yanez will be able to capitalize with that attack. He is a much faster striker and better at putting together boxing combinations. Yanez should be scoring every minute this fight is standing while Simon can earn points by securing takedowns and nullifying Yanez’ attacks. It will be a very close fight and I prefer to risk my money on the underdog side. I think it is very likely that this fight goes the distance unless Yanez is able to win via knockout instead. Adrian Yanez by Decision
• Nick: Ricky Simon is certainly past his prime, but he’s still a tough out for the majority of the bantamweight division. Simon averages more than five takedowns per fifteen minutes. He fights at a torrid pace, and when he’s at his best he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio. He’s a decent offensive striker, but he’s slow moving in and out of breaks and his footwork is rudimentary at best. Adrian Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have drawn comparisons to a young Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. That being said, he is mostly one-dimensional. His grappling is more of a weakness than a strength and at times he does struggle to defend against leg kicks. This is a binary match-up, but I do find myself siding with the favorite in Simon. He’s the much better grappler here, and I expect Yanez will struggle to keep this fight standing. Ricky Simon by Decision

Navajo Stirling -550 vs Bruno Lopes +400

• Anthony: This is a matchup at light heavyweight between Navajo Stirling and Bruno Lopes. Stirling trains at City Kickboxing. He is a star pupil for Eugene Bareman and close friend to card headliner Israel Adesdanya. He is built for success in this division standing 6’4 with a 79-inch reach. Stirling fights according to plan, striking at range and using feints and kicks to break down his opponents. He is patient when it comes to landing his counters and putting his opponents away. Lopes will struggle to land clean shots here against Stirling without eating a precise strike in return. Lopes has good power when he can square up his opponents but Stirling is constantly moving and manipulating his angle of attack. This is shaping up to be an easy win for Stirling who will certainly control the majority of this fight. He is just 8-0, continuing to slowly build his confidence with each minor step up in competition. The slow climb is fine if Stirling does remain this active but really he is so much better than the guys he has been beating. He averages 6.13 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.60 on average in return. Stirling is my most confident pick for today’s event. I will be using Stirling in my parlays and betting him to win via knockout in this fight. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO
• Nick: Stirling is just 8-0 professionally, but he also has a lot of experience fighting professionally as a kickboxer. He fights out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, where he trains with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, and Carlos Ulberg. Coached by Eugene Baremen, Stirling is a gifted striker who does his best work at range. He is 28-years old, and 3-0 in the UFC. Bruno Lopes is 32-years old and 14-2 professionally. He’s relatively well-rounded, with six wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s fought a decent level of regional competition, but he’s tough to get a read on as his kill-or-be-killed style makes him as vulnerable as he is dangerous. He secured a win in his UFC debut over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov via decision, but more recently he was put down via KO against Dustin Jacoby. Silva will be the better grappler in this match-up, but Stirling’s superior footwork is going to make takedowns extremely difficult. The line feels here as Stirling is still somewhat unproven at this level. Still, he is the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing until he scores a flashy knockout. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO

Casey O’Neill -110 vs Gabriella Fernandes -110

• Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight between Gabriella Fernandes and Casey O’Neill. Fernandes enters here on a three fight winning streak with a victory against Julija Stoliarenko in their bout last year. She has been impressive with her offensive grappling and strength competing here in this division. Once again I am expecting that Fernandes will have her skills tested on the ground. O’Neill is the more well-rounded athlete and better at punishing opponents from top position. It is the first fight in more than a year for O’Neill but this is a fine draw for her to take in a return. Part of her time off was spent honing her skills with training camp starting for her in Thailand. She had reunited with her original team and striking coach ahead of this matchup. Fernandes can be economical in terms of landing a high volume of strikes but none that really land with power. O’Neill is the harder hitter here at this weight and better overall with her boxing. She is also the preferred side as these two get after it wrestling. She has 70 percent takedown defense while landing 7.89 significant strikes per minute. I expect her volume striking and grappling to be what earns her this victory. These odds have remained steady at near pick’em all week long. O’Neill is the more proven fighter in my opinion and the better side of this coin flip. Casey O’Neill by Decision
• Nick: Casey O’Neill has trained at excellent camps all over the word, most recently spending time with the Hickman Brothers at Bangtao Muay Thai & MMA in Thailand. She’s 10-2 professionally, coming off a solid decision win over Luana Santos back in August of 2024. O’Neill’s striking is certainly far from refined, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. Her most applaudable asset is her powerful wrestling base and her overall strength at 125 pounds. There is a good chance O’Neill has made major improvements in her time away from the cage. Gabriella Fernandes is primarily a striker, but most of her success has come on the mat as three of her five most recent wins have come via submission. She is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently securing a decision win over Julija Stoliarenko. Her skills are far from refined, but she’s tough and aggressive and she generally does a good job forcing her opponents to fight moving backwards. O’Neill could have issues at striking range here, but it seems likely she’ll find the takedowns she needs to edge this one out on the scorecards. Casey O’Neill by Decision

Tyrell Fortune -140 vs Marcin Tybura +115

• Anthony: This should be a good matchup between heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Tyrell Fortune. I consider these men both mediocre fighters despite Tybura currently holding a rank inside the division top fifteen. Tonight’s matchup will further display just how bad this division really is. Tybura is now 40 years old and coming off a knockout loss in his most recent appearance. It is the promotional debut for Fortune who was a career 13-2 combatant fighting in Bellator. Fortune has won in his last three fights but the level of competition has been abysmal. Fortune really has a very padded resume with his best wins coming against Matt Mitrione and Marcelo Golm. I think Tybura should crush Fortune here if he has anything at all left in the tank. Fortune is a bit lighter and smaller than Tybura. The Polish fighter can use his size and grappling to clearly win early rounds in this fight. On the feet, both men tend to land with power but I do consider Tybura a bit more durable. He has proven capable of standing and fighting his way to a decision although not every UFC fight has gone his way. This will either be a very sloppy striking match or a fight that Tybura can dominate with his offensive grappling and pressure. I will be betting on Tybura here more as a fade of Fortune who cannot be trusted as a favorite of any odds. Marcin Tybura by Round Two KO
• Nick: Marcin Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he’s still a tough out for anyone ranked outside of the top fifteen at heavyweight. Tyrell Fortune will be making his UFC debut here, having won each of his last three regional fights via finish. Fortune enters the promotion with a 17-3 professional record at 35 years old. He has a better resume than most UFC debutants as he’s spent a majority of his career fighting for Bellator and the PFL. Fortune favors a wrestling heavy game plan in most of his fights. He has power on the feet, but his striking is mostly used as a means to push his opponents backwards and then take them to the mat. His cardio and durability have been questionable at times, but he is almost always dangerous early in his fights. These are two fighters with similar styles, but even with Tybura getting up there in age I see value in him in this match-up. Fortune will be dangerous early here, but as this fight wears on I expect Tybura to build momentum until he ultimately finds a finish. As impressive as Fortune has been, this is a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition. Marcin Tybura by Round Two KO

Chase Hooper -300 vs Lance Gibson Jr +240

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Chase Hooper and Lance Gibson Jr. This should be a competitive matchup between two very well-rounded fighters. Hooper is coming off a loss in his last fight against Alexander Hernandez. Gibson represents an older veteran that can test him but not necessarily a fighter that is more skilled. It does not appear that Hooper is ready to face ranked competition. Hooper is known for blackbelt grappling and intense pressure on the mat. Gibson will be challenged with navigating Hooper’s length and quick attacks. The 26-year-old has really filled into his frame here at lightweight. He is finally becoming comfortable with his strikes and showcasing rather high level kickboxing. He will use kicks and knees to keep Gibson from closing the distance. Hooper is in danger here only when he is boxing against Gibson. When grappling, his size advantage will be felt as he outscrambles Gibson and likely makes his way onto the back. Gibson has always been confident in his own wrestling but this is one matchup that could see him getting into trouble as a result. Hooper will accrue a lot of control time here in route to a much needed victory. Hooper is a good bet to get back into the win column here this weekend. Chase Hooper by Decision
• Nick: Chase Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 26-year old. Eight of Hooper’s sixteen professional wins have come via submission. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet, but he does seem to be improving in that area. On the mat his long limbs provide him an excellent base for BJJ, and when his fights hit the ground he’s as creative as he is dangerous offensively. Lance Gibson Jr. is coming off a decision loss to King Green in his UFC debut, entering this match-up with a 9-2 professional record at 31 years old. The majority of Gibson’s professional career has been spent fighting for Bellator, and it is notable his father Lance Gibson Sr. was a former UFC fighter back in the early 2000s. Gibson Jr. is relatively well rounded with four professional wins coming by KO and three coming by submission. He’s a south paw striker with decent offensively grappling ability, but he is certainly going to want to keep this fight standing. The line feels wide here, but Hooper should be able to dominate if he can take this fight to the mat. A low confidence play, but I expect he will. Chase Hooper by Round Two Submission

Ignacio Bahamondes -300 vs Tofiq Musayev +240

• Anthony: The featured prelim is this fight at lightweight between Tofiq Musayev and Ignacio Bahamondes. This is a short notice appearance for Bahamondes after Musayev was originally scheduled to fight Samuel Sanches tonight. I think it is telling that the promotion had Musayev faced against an exciting Brazilian from the Contender Series. Bahamondes is already a problem at lightweight and in my eyes I view this a very favorable matchup for him. Facing Musayev he has a six-inch reach advantage while also standing much taller. Bahamondes averages 6.55 significant strikes per minute, stabbing opponents from range and landing with his kicks. Musayev will struggle to compete against Bahamondes using only his own boxing. Bahamondes also has the strength to get big in grappling situations, stuffing opponent takedowns and punishing them with strikes as they retreat. This seems like a matchup where Musayev will likely get frustrated chasing down Bahamondes. He will most likely resort to standing his ground and trading shots here against a much more talented striker. At these odds I do think Bahamondes is a great pick to win here this weekend. Bahamondes was able to make weight without issue and he appeared to have some sort of camp ahead of this bout. Ignacio Bahamondes by Round Two KO
• Nick: Ignacio Bahamondes has what many would describe as a loose and free striking style. He’s very light on his feet and does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He’s shown an ability to KO his opponents both at range and in the clinch. He has surprising power for his frame, but he often leaves his head on the center-line and as a result he tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. His defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired, but he can be an opportunistic finisher on the mat in certain match-ups. Tofiq Musayev is well-rounded, but most of his success comes at striking range. Eighteen of his twenty-two professional wins have come via KO. He was outclassed on the mat by Myktybek Oralbai in his UFC debut, but he’s in a more favorable stylistic match-up this time around against Bahamondes. The line is too wide here as Musayev is generally underrated. Still, Bahamondes has the length and offensive grappling ability to stay a step ahead in this one. Musayev seems a bit past his prime, and Bahamondes seems to still be improving. Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Terrance McKinney -185 vs Kyle Nelson +150

• Anthony: The main card opens with this lightweight fight between Kyle Nelson and Terrance McKinney. It is always must see television when McKinney fights, quickly scrapping with opponents in what is typically a one-round brawl. His past six appearances all ended in less than three minutes. This fight could finish in many different ways and I find it difficult to confidently predict the outcome. McKinney is dangerous but so is Nelson who does seem much more durable. He will need to avoid the early barrage from McKinney, lasting into the second round where he figures to be fresher and more technically sound. McKinney often does blow his load in round one in search of the early finish. I am a fan of his aggressive style but he does not have very good defense at all. McKinney will be there to get hit from Nelson and I think he will be better served in this matchup shooting early on. McKinney is a powerful wrestler with good ground and pound from top position. Nelson will need to fight back to his feet after that initial takedown but it will become much easier for him with every second that comes off the clock in this fight. We have seen Nelson challenged by opponents on the mat before and capable of holding his own. He is a very live underdog here and it would not surprise me to see him stopping McKinney. The under 1.5 is listed at -280 for this matchup but it does seem like a very safe bet. I would much rather risk money on the total than bet on McKinney as a favorite. One of these two will very likely go to sleep whether it be by knockout or via submission. Terrance McKinney by Round One Submission
• Nick: Kyle Nelson is a powerful striker, but fairly unconventional in his approach. He has flashed decent power, but mostly against mediocre competition. He’s often there to be countered in exchanges due to his hyper-aggressive style. He usually comes out strong, but we do see him fade at times if he can’t put his opponents away early. Terrance McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 17-8 professionally and all of his wins have come inside the distance. He is 6-5 in the UFC, most recently suffering a submission loss to a tough out in Chris Duncan. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. This is an extremely volatile match-up that is almost certain to end inside the distance. If Nelson can extend this fight at all he should be able to pull off the upset. That being said, I don’t think he’ll be able to slow McKinney down here. Terrance McKinney by Round One Submission

Mansur Abdul-Malik -140 vs Yousri Belgaroui +115

• Anthony: Next should be a good middleweight fight between Yousri Belgaroui and Mansur Abdul-Malik. Through four fights in the promotion, Abdul-Malik has battled through adversity and proven he is more than just a mass of muscle. Abdul-Malik is a freak athlete but he is a human and careful to take a measured approach to each of his fights. Belgaroui could be overwhelmed here by Abdul-Malik’s power but he will likely keep this fight extremely competitive on the feet. Belgaroui does well attacking opponents from range and using his frame to his advantage. His kickboxing skills are very good but Belgaroui will struggle to hurt Abdul-Malik or really slow him down with his strikes. Abdul-Malik also figures to have a clear grappling advantage here in this matchup. I would like to see him utilize his wrestling a bit here to takedown Belgaroui and negate his offensive attacks. His strength will likely be a key advantage in this matchup, allowing Abdul-Malik to win minutes on the ground and standing in the clinch. These odds are close for good reason in this matchup but I do think Abdul-Malik has the tools to earn this victory. Belgaroui is the more skilled fighter but he does not have many quality victories in professional MMA. I would rather not bet against Abdul-Malik who is an athletic specimen still unbeaten through ten career fights. Mansur Abdul-Malik by Decision
• Nick: At 28-years old, Mansur Abdul-Malik is an undefeated prospect with a 9-0-1 professional record. All of Abdul-Malik’s wins have come via finish. He’s an explosive athlete with an 80” reach. Primarily a striker, Abdul-Malik has found most of his success overwhelming his opponents with pressure early in fights. He’s a gifted athlete and he’s building momentum, but he has yet to be tested against top level competition. Yousri Belgaroui is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut which came via KO of Azamat Bekoev. He is 8-9 professionally, and 33 years old. He’s getting a late start to his MMA career, but he has an extensive resume in kickboxing with an extended resume in that sports top promotion, Glory. Belgaroui is a dangerous striker at range and he’s long for the division. That being said he can be slow and plodding at times as he relies on counters, and his defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired. Abdul-Malik can justify his price as the favorite here if he can get his grappling going early. That being said, Belgaroui’s massive size advantage might make that a difficult task to accomplish. A low confidence play, but I’ll take a small shot on the underdog. Yousri Belgaroui by Decision

Lerryan Douglas -350 vs Julian Erosa +275

• Anthony: This should be a fun fight at featherweight between Julian Erosa and Lerryan Douglas. Erosa is always a great entertainer winning Fight of the Night in his most recent performance. Douglas earned his contract last year on Dana White’s Contender Series in a bit of a non-contest mowing through the competition. He slept Cam Teague in 36 seconds with a thudding knockout victory. The Brazilian has a poor record of 13-5 overall but so does his opponent today Julian Erosa. These are two athletes destined to compete in a brawl starting in early round one. Douglas’ power makes him the rightful favorite in this matchup. Erosa has been stopped by several heavy handed opponents before. It will be Erosa likely moving forward and throwing high-volume attacks here as Douglas counters with heavier strikes. Erosa would also love to create grappling scrambles where he can showcase his offensive skills on the mat. Douglas could fall victim to submission here if he is not careful protecting his neck against Erosa. This could also be a fight that devolves in the latter rounds as one man completely loses all of his energy. I am expecting to see a crazy back and forth here before Douglas does knockout Erosa eventually. This bout will certainly be in contention for Fight of the Night if it does get out of one round. Lerryan Douglas by Round One KO
• Nick: Lerryan Douglas will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via KO of Cam Teague. Douglas is a former LFA Featherweight Champion. He is 13-5 professionally, and 30 years old. A protege of a divisional mainstay in Cub Swanson, Douglas carries serious power for a featherweight with seven of his thirteen professional wins coming via KO. He’s an aggressive fighter, and his grappling is by no means a weakness. Still, there is no denying he’s taking a massive step up in competition here for his UFC debut. Julian Erosa is a well rounded veteran, with fourteen professional wins by submission and twelve by knockout. He is 31-12 overall, and his greatest quality as a fighter may be his willingness to eat shots in exchanges and keep pressing forward. He’s very game and gritty, but his durability has been in question at times as nine of his twelve professional losses have come via KO. These are two extremely aggressive fighters that are capable of finishing a fight everywhere. The line is far too wide here, but Douglas has the type of power and style that has given Erosa issues recently. Erosa will look good early, but I’m not confident in his chin. Lerryan Douglas by Round Two KO

Michael Chiesa -850 vs Niko Price +575

• Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight matchup between Niko Price and Michael Chiesa. This will be the retirement fight for Chiesa who will be fighting Price here on short notice. Price is replacing Carlston Harris who was originally scheduled to be facing Chiesa. It is concerning that Price is fighting here just over a month removed from a knockout against Nikolay Veretennikov. He was a large underdog entering that matchup and it is apparent here at 36 years old Price is just about done. His career has gone the same as many others with losses now in seven of his last nine fights. Chiesa is leaving the sport on his own terms eager to continue coaching and providing commentary. He is an elite submission grappler with great skills controlling opponents inside of the cage. Chiesa has made a career of using the body lock to bully opponents and force them onto the ground. Price cannot absorb strikes from anyone when striking and here he is going to be completely outclassed on the mat. Chiesa should be able to win this bout easily here in his final career fight. This is a matchup that favors him very much stylistically. Price only defends 50 percent of opponent takedown attempts. On short notice I do not see how this could be a fight that Price could win. Michael Chiesa by Round Two Submission
• Nick: This match-up features two fighters who will be retiring after this match-up. At his best, Michael Chiesa has an outstanding wrestling style that relies on highly technical body-lock style takedowns and his submission game is extremely creative. Chiesa’s stand-up is serviceable, but his powerful grappling and technical abilities on the mat are certainly his greatest strengths. Chiesa averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and his BJJ is outstanding if he can hold top position. He’s far past his prime, but he’s coming off three straight wins for the first time since 2021. Niko Price is fairly well-rounded, but he’s found most of his UFC success trading on the feet with notable wins over Alex Oliveira, Tim Means, Randy Brown, and most recently Alex Morono. Ten of his sixteen professional wins have come via KO. In his prime, he was quick and explosive. However, there’s no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. Price will have a size and power advantage here, but his durability is a major concern as he’s getting up there in age. He’s taken a lot of damage in most of his fights, and there’s no denying he’s a step slower both in striking exchanges and in scrambles. The odds are somewhat ridiculous, but Chiesa should be able to take this fight to the mat and finish it with relative ease. Michael Chiesa by Round One Submission

Maycee Barber -185 vs Alexa Grasso +150

• Anthony: The co-main event is this women’s flyweight fight between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber. The former champion Grasso has not won a fight since earning her title back in 2023. She is in a similar position to the event headliner Israel Adesanya, losing last time to a rising contender and now facing another one here. Barber looked great in a return to action in December, beating Karine Silva by unanimous decision. She has always been fundamentally sound in all areas of the fight. Her striking has come a very long way but here against Grasso, Barber cannot be too willing to engage on the feet. Barber has scored multiple takedowns in three of her previous four fights. I think approaching this fight with wrestling would be the best gameplan for Barber in an effort to emerge victorious. Grasso has averaged 54 percent takedown defense throughout her career. Shevchenko was dominant grappling against Grasso in their fights but other opponents have also been able to hold her down. I would give Grasso more respect handicapping this matchup if it were a fight scheduled for five rounds. Barber should be able to secure at least two of these three rounds controlling Grasso. It appeared that she was healthy on the scales Friday and I expect her to be a much stronger fighter tonight. Maycee Barber by Decision
• Nick: Maycee Barber has always been a highly regarded prospect, but she hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She’ll get a chance to get a win back in a rematch with Grasso here. She has regained some of her hype and momentum as she’s strung together seven consecutive wins. It’s tough to know where she’ll be mentally here, but at her best she’s a tough out for almost anyone in this division. She’s an aggressive brawler who is competent everywhere, and most of her success has come in simply exploiting the weaknesses of her opponents. Alexa Grasso is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in her professional career. She most recently fell to Natalia Silva in an ugly decision loss, and prior to that she suffered an ugly loss to Valentina Shevchenko in which she lost her flyweight title. At her best, Grasso works well behind her jab, her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Her BJJ offensively has become a solid weapon for her as well, which was evident by her win over Shevchenko in which she captured the title. As talented as she is, she lacks the athleticism of some of the other top contenders in her weight class. Additionally, it does seem that she is slowing down in general. This fight should be competitive on the feet, but I see Barber having success against Grasso in the clinch and up against the cage. Additionally, she should be the much better grappler in this match-up. Maycee Barber by Decision

Israel Adesanya -140 vs Joe Pyfer +115

• Anthony: The main event is a fight at middleweight between Joe Pyfer and Israel Adesanya. The former champion has lost three consecutive fights but continues to test himself against the division top ten at every opportunity. Pyfer is a solid contender and this win could certainly catapult his status into another realm. It would be very impressive if he can also go out and finish Adesanya. Pyfer has been winning fights against top competition with his striking, but the former champion Adesanya is at another level in terms of his technical skills. Prior to this fight I would consider Kelvin Gastelum the best striker that Pyfer has faced. Adesanya will challenge Pyfer to be more careful fighting at distance, protecting himself from leg kicks and being careful to avoid counters as he moves in. I do not expect Pyfer to effectively pressure Adesanya throughout this fight. Pyfer will likely compete here against Adesanya with his boxing and attempts to wrestle in moments in between. I could see Pyfer getting tired in this fight if he does pursue the takedown here often. Pyfer can probably get through some solid strikes as Adesanya’s defense has been poor in his last several fights. At the age of 36 this is clearly not prime Adesanya, but I still rate him as one of the top middleweights currently in the sport. He is the rightful favorite in this matchup and likely to outclass Pyfer as long as he does not get finished here early. Adesanya is extremely accurate and I think he will hurt Pyfer here in this fight with his kicks and attacks from distance. Israel Adesanya by Round Four KO
• Nick: Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is 6-1 in the UFC, with a solid 15-3 professional record overall. Pyfer is going to be the much bigger fighter and the more potent finisher in this match-up, but his lack of experience and questionable fight IQ make him a dangerous fighter to back with any sort of confidence. In spite of his recent inactivity, the former UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. All that being said, he has been out of action for more than a year. It’s tough to know what he’ll look like now at 36 years old and he enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak for the first time in his UFC career. This fight essentially comes down to how far past his prime Adensanya is. He’s the much better fighter overall, with the better footwork and technical striking, and he’s taken on a much higher level of opponent. Pyfer is going to be dangerous here, especially given Adesanya’s recent regression in his durability. Still, I find myself siding with the favorite. As long as he can weather the early storm here, he should pull away as this fight wears on. Israel Adensaya by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Phot: UFC.com