UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker – Full Card Analysis

UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker – 11.22.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker. The event today takes place in Doha, Qatar at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 304-172-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 304-172-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-21-2025 at 1pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 10:00am EST

Denzel Freeman -200 vs Marek Bujlo +160

• Anthony: The event begins with heavyweights Denzel Freeman and Marek Bujlo. This is the promotional debut for both fighters while Bujlo enters still an undefeated professional. José Luiz was actually scheduled to be the opponent for Bujlo’s debut but now he will face this American on short notice. Bujlo is a blackbelt in jiu jitsu with plenty of experience fighting on the mat. He has placed before against IBJJF opponents at ultra heavyweight and open weight categories. Freeman presents a legitimate threat to Bujlo with his own power and strong wrestling but I think he will get controlled here. Bujlo is too dangerous an opponent for Freeman to feel confident engaging against on the ground. Freeman will score using his striking throughout this fight but I think he will eventually succumb to the ground and pound from Bujlo. This is a very low-level fight at heavyweight, which is always volatile. Bettors should proceed with caution and I do not think Freeman warrants action here as betting favorite. Marek Bujlo by Round Two KO
• Nick: Marek Bujlo will be making his UFC debut here. He is 6-0 professionally and he entered the promotion at 32 years old as a grappler fighting out of Poland. Bujlo holds a BJJ blackbelt, and his striking mostly serves as a means to take his opponents to the mat. Denzel Freeman will also be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion as the most recent LFA Heavyweight Champion. Freeman is 34 years old and 6-1 professionally. Freeman has a background in wrestling, and his striking poses enough of a power threat that it needs to be respected by his opponents. His cardio does seem to be questionable at best, but he can push a pace for at least ten minutes with consistency. Bujlo’s footwork seems flawed, which could cause issues for him here against Freeman. This is a low level match-up and a low confidence play, but I expect Freeman can stay safe early here and potentially lean on his own grappling ability as this fight wears on. He’s the better striker, and he’s been taking on the better level of regional opponents. Denzel Freeman by Round Two KO

Nurullo Aliev -300 vs Shem Rock +240

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Shem Rock and Nurullo Aliev. Aliev is the Tajik Eagle and happy to represent his country here fighting in Qatar today. He is a 10-0 professional and still developing as a 24 year old. I think Aliev has proven to be incredibly tough, pressuring opponents and making his fights grueling. This is a matchup between striker and grappler as Aliev averages nearly one takedown landed per round. Shaqueme Rock is teammate of Luke Riley who also makes his debut on this card. He is known for a long career fighting around the world and turning to martial arts after making many mistakes as a young man. Rock has developed very nice footwork and strong overall striking skills. He will be looking to engage Aliev boxing while fending off takedowns here. While I do think Rock is a solid all-around fighter he does struggle with his takedown defense. I think a more complete athlete such as Aliev can wear on Rock and force him to play defense throughout this bout. I have been impressed with Aliev’s ability to outgrapple and control opponents at this weight. He has beaten better fighters than this when faced against Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves. Aliev seems to have excellent cardio and I expect him to hold serve here as the betting favorite. Nurullo Aliev by Decision
• Nick: Nurullo Aliev is 10-0 professionally, with quality regional wins in the UFC, AMC and Eagle FC. He’s primarily a wrestler, with solid submission ability and excellent cardio. He’s fighting out of Tajikistan, but he seems to have a similar high-pressure chain wrestling style that we see in fighters coming out of Dagestan and Chechnya. He’s coming off an impressive decision win over a tough out inJoe Solecki, and it seems he’s as healthy and active as he’s been as a fighter since he made his professional debut in 2018. Shem Rock will be making his UFC debut here, carrying a solid 12-1-1 professional record at 32 years old. He fights out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool with the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann. Like his teammate Pimblett, Rock is primarily a grappler. He is still developing that part of this game overall, but he is an opportunistic submission grappler and he has shown excellent ground-and-pound striking ability.  The line has gotten out of hand here, but I do see Aliev as the rightful favorite. He’s the better technical fighter no matter where this fight goes, which should allow him to pull away on the scorecards. Nurullo Aliev by Decision

Ismail Naurdiev -140 vs Ryan Loder +115

• Anthony: This is a bout at middleweight between Ryan Loder and Ismail Naurdiev. Both of these fighters are looking to bounce back after losing in their most recent appearances. Loder was winner of The Ultimate Fighter in 2024 but that was his only UFC victory thus far. I did consider Loder a very tough and durable athlete, but he was finished for the first time in round one of his last fight. He could proceed a bit more carefully here, avoiding big exchanges on the feet. Naurdiev is 24-8 overall but 6-6 through his last twelve fights. Better competition has been able to handle Naurdiev rather easily. He has been finished before in fights when caught behind when it comes to landing strikes and counterwrestling. Loder will likely get a jump on Naurdiev landing takedowns here first. He is the stronger overall wrestler and jiu jitsu practitioner. On the feet this matchup will be competitive as both men move slowly but land with big power. Middleweights that are this strong and explosive will likely yield fights that end by early finishes. I am expecting that one of these two will find a knockout as this bout wears on. Loder should be able to set a pace against Naurdiev that he will struggle to maintain. Bettors have been taking Loder all week long moving these odds much closer towards pick’em. Ryan Loder by Round Two KO
• Nick: Ismail Naurdiev is 25-7 professionally, and 1-1 in the UFC. At 29-years old it’s expected he’ll continue to improve, but he’s been finished eight times professionally. He’s dangerous offensively, but he takes unnecessary risks and his durability has failed him on more than one occasion. His defensive grappling also leaves a lot to be desired, which could likely spell trouble for him here in this particular match-up. Ryan Loder, The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament champion at middleweight. Loder has a solid wrestling base, as a former D-1 All American. He’s getting somewhat of a late start to his MMA career, but he’s an explosive athlete and his striking seems to improve every time we see him in the cage. Loder mostly grapples to control position, which means most of his success comes from winning minutes on the mat. He does have dangerous BJJ when his opponents present him openings, but there is certainly no denying the fact his grappling style is conservative. He usually comes out strong and fades gradually as his fights wear on. His cardio doesn’t seem to be a strength, but his style allows him to stay effective for fifteen minutes. On the feet, he’s tentative. He has power in his strikes, but he doesn’t throw much in terms of volume. Defensively, he’s certainly hittable in exchanges as most of his opponents know he mostly only strikes to set up his grappling. This is a volatile match-up and a relatively low level fight, so I’m seeing some value on Loder as the underdog. He’s the much better wrestler and grappler in this match-up, and that should be enough for him to control where this fight goes and ultimately secure a win on the scorecards. Ryan Loder by Decision 

Aleksandre Topuria -150 vs Bekzat Almakhan +125

• Anthony: Here is a matchup between Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria at bantamweight. This should be a very competitive matchup between two skilled fighters in this division. Aleksandre Topuria trains alongside his brother Ilia, the lightweight champion and one of the very best pound-for-pound. I think Topuria does have strong fundamental skills in all areas but he lacks the dynamic boxing that we see from his brother. Still, Topuria will continue to prove to be a tough out with excellent cardio and strong wrestling. Almakhan will likely attempt to engage Topuria here grappling although I think he also has a slight edge on the feet. These two match up the same in terms of their size but Almakhan fights using reach to his advantage and landing more kicks than Topuria. Topuria is a more stout and compact fighter at this weight, relying on explosive strikes landing in order to win. Almakhan should score more consistently throughout this fight while we see very competitive scrambles on the mat. Both men can likely avoid any submission attempts placed by the other. It is a fight near even pick’em for very good reason. The odds have finally swayed into Topuria’s favor after taking more than 80 percent of the betting handle. I am comfortable siding with the sportsbooks and taking Almakhan to win in this bout. He seems like the more complete fighter overall. Bekzat Almakhan by Decision
• Nick: Bekzat Almakhan is 12-2 professionally and 28-years old. He’s a talented prospect fighting out of Kazakhstan, with ten of his wins coming via KO. He is primarily a striker, who does a good job fighting at range. He throws fast and powerful high kicks and it’s safe to expect he’ll have a long career in the UFC. He’s effective in scrambles, and it seems he does have enough wrestling ability both offensively and defensively to keep fights standing against most opponents. Aleksandre Topuria enters this fight with a 6-1 professional record at 29-years old. Topuria had a fair amount of hype coming into the promotion as the older brother of Ilia Topuria, the current UFC Featherweight Champion and one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in the world.  Similarly to his brother, Topuria has potent offensive grappling ability. While he is nowhere near the technician that his brother is on the feet, he does carry KO power and his striking continues to show improvements every time he enters the cage. He secured a win in his UFC debut via decision over Colby Thicknesse, but he fought somewhat conservatively in a fight many felt he should have been able to find a finish. This is a tough fight to call between two fighters with similar styles, but I find myself backing Topuria as the more potent finisher here and the more well-rounded fighter of the two. A low confidence play, but I expect Aleksandre Topuria to have the bigger moments in this one.  Aleksandre Topuria by Decision

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev -1600 vs Rafael Cerqueira +800

• Anthony: The next fight is a light heavyweight matchup between Rafael Cerqueira and Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev. Yakhyaev is a perfect 7-0 and an exciting debuting fighter. He came off a win against Alik Lorenz on Dana White’s Contender Series this summer. Yakhyaev is a Chechen with strong wrestling skills but also very good kickboxing. Cerqueira will be susceptible to the knockout here facing Yakhyaev in a stance opposite his. It seems like Cerqueira may be getting his walking papers with another loss today. He is a very low-level athlete and so far he is 0-3 in the UFC. The reason Cerqueira has been finished in so many fights before is due to his defense being so porous. He will continue to get knocked out early if he attempts to beat elite strikers with his own boxing skills. Cerqueira should be urgently working his fights to the mat where he has the perceived advantage. Instead, he tends to back up frequently and get stuck in vulnerable positions along the fence. He also probably struggles against Yakhyaev here even if he did elect to grapple. These odds have gotten out of hand but I think Yakhyaev is a sure thing to get this victory. I am confidently picking Yakhyaev and feel he is a safe bet to find this win via stoppage. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by Round One KO
• Nick: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev will be making his UFC debut here. He is 7-0 professionally, coming off an impressive KO win over Alik Lorenz on Contender Series back in August. He’s generally well-rounded, with three professional wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. Yakhyaev is extremely aggressive and dangerous everywhere, but he’s yet to really face adversity at the professional level. Rafael Cerqueira is 11-3 professionally, but 0-3 in the UFC.  Prior to his UFC losses, Cerqueira had won seven straight fights via finish for a small regional promotion in Demo Fight in Brazil. He’s a dangerous striker, but it’s tough to gauge his level of talent given his lack of quality competition. He was completely overwhelmed in his UFC debut and his last fight back in February, and it seems he’s fighting to hold his roster spot here against Yakhyaev. He’s hittable in exchanges, and his cardio and durability both seem to be questionable at best.The line is wide here given Cerqueira’s experience advantage, but he really doesn’t seem to be UFC level. It seems likely Yakhyaev can find a finish early here. Cerqueira is simply too hittable. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by Round One KO

Asu Almabayev -200 vs Alex Perez +160

• Anthony: Next is a flyweight matchup between Asu Almabayev and Alex Perez. Prior to a loss in March to Manel Kape, Almabaev was on a 17 fight winning streak. He was capable of landing takedowns and nullifying the striking efforts of Jose Ochoa in his last fight. Once again Almabayev has a distinct grappling advantage here facing a poor wrestler like Perez. Although Perez does have 77 percent takedown defense he tends to really struggle once he does get taken down. His boxing is going to be cleaner and more impactful than Almabayev, but the threat of a takedown will keep Perez timid as he moves forward. Perez is also starting to perform a bit worse at the age of 33. The veteran can likely find his way to a decision here even if he does become overwhelmed. I think Almabaev will fight smart in this matchup, taking down Perez as many times as needed. His distinct wrestling advantage makes him the rightful betting favorite in my opinion. Asu Almabayev by Decision
• Nick: Prior to his loss to Manel Kape back in March, Almabaev had strung together  four consecutive wins under the UFC banner. As a flyweight, he regularly trains with top welterweight contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and impressive durability and cardio. He is 14-3 professionally, and widely considered a prospect to keep an eye on in a crowded flyweight division. He’s well-rounded, but most of his success comes in forcing his opponents to grapple. He’s coming off a solid decision win over another rising prospect in Jose Ochoa. Alex Perez has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and fights at an excellent pace. Additionally, his calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone in this division. He’s a solid grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. He also does a good job staying out of trouble and finding favorable positions in the scramble. As talented as he is, he is certainly past his prime, fighting professionally for nearly 15 years. This fight could certainly go either way, but I slightly prefer the Perez side in this one. Even with his age and recent injuries, he’s far and away the better striker in this match-up and he has the defensive grappling ability to keep things competitive in scrambles. A low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on the underdog. Alex Perez by Decision

Saygid Izagakhmaev -350 vs Nicolas Dalby +265

• Anthony: The next matchup is a fight at welterweight between Nicolas Dalby and Saygid Izagakhmaev. It appears that this booking will test to see if Dalby still belongs competing at the top level of the sport. Since turning 40, Dalby has not performed well, losing in both of his last appearances. He draws into an undefeated opponent here that is much younger and better suited for future success. Izagakhmaev has experience fighting in the Middle East with other promotions like ONE Championship. He is a Dagestani fighter with strong wrestling and elite sambo skills. I expect to see Izagakhmaev hold his own against Dalby while striking. He will separate himself in this fight by using his great grappling skills. Dalby is a karate style fighter that can be competitive with Izagakhmaev in a striking matchup. Dalby likes to throw with high volume and pressure his opponents against the fence. Izagakhmaev should be looking for trips and conventional takedowns here early and often. Dalby has only defended 58 percent of opponent takedowns in the UFC. He lost against Rinat Fakhretdinov last year getting wrestled over and over in their fight in Riyadh. I am expecting to see a similar outcome here with Dalby getting worked rather handily. Saygid Izagakhmaev by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Saygid Izagakhmaev will be making his debut here, with an impressive 22-2 professional record at 31 years old. Izagakhmaev is a Dagestani wrestler with a solid Sambo background. Like many fighters from that part of the world, he does a good job forcing a pace and chain grappling, He has a solid level of experience outside of the UFC as most of his recent career has come under contract for ONE Championship. He’s an opportunistic finisher no matter where his fights go, and many expect him to be a welcome addition to an already crowded welterweight division. Nicolas Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. He’s decent on the feet, but doesn’t throw much volume. He can be dangerous offensively, but defensively he is often there to be countered as he throws looping power shots rather than tight compact combinations. He’s coming off the first KO loss of his career to Randy Brown, but he enters this match-up with an impressive 23-6-1 professional record with a 5-3-1 record in the UFC. Dalby has the talent to potentially extend this fight, but the gap in athleticism here is significant. I expect Izagakhmaev to secure early takedowns here and from there he’ll be live to find a finish. Saygid Izagakhmaev by Round Two Submission

Luke Riley -280 vs Bogdan Grad +220

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at featherweight between Bogdan Grad and Luke Riley. This is the UFC debut for Riley who enters undefeated at 11-0. The 26-year-old is a rather hyped prospect training with the team at Next Generation Liverpool. He has grown up inside the Cage Warrior ring winning eight of his fights there via knockout. Riley has tremendous striking on offense, landing great kickboxing combinations and well-timed counters. His footwork is much better than Grad’s. Riley does tend to hold his chin high relying on offense to cover the holes in his defense. Grad could give him a very tough fight but I do not think he will put together enough shots to really stun him. Riley has battled through adversity in fights before and I think he will be ready to perform on this stage. Grad is tough but he has also made mistakes in a few of his recent performances. He does well exploding into takedown attempts but Grad rarely capitalizes on strong positions, allowing his opponents to stand up too fast. In order to cash as the underdog in this fight Grad will need to keep his wrestling shoes on for a full three rounds. Riley is going to light up Grad striking and likely win this fight rather convincingly. Luke Riley by Decision
• Nick: Bogdan Grad is small for the division, but he’s an explosive athlete with dangerous finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. Grad is 15-3 professionally, with nine of those wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He pushes a serious pace, and generally does a good job forcing his opponents into chaos. Luke Riley will be making his UFC debut here, with an 11-0 professional record at 26 years old. He fights out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool with the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann. Riley’s entire professional career has been fought for the Cage Warriors promotion in England. He’s primarily a striker, with eight of his professional wins coming via KO. He has surprising power for his frame, he fights at a torrid pace and he’s especially dangerous striking out of breaks. This should be an extremely fun and high-paced match-up for however long it lasts. I slightly prefer the Grad side as the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up. Grad should have a considerable grappling advantage here. Riley will be live to find a finish by KO, but if this hits the scorecards it feels like there is value on the underdog here. Bogdan Grad by Decision

Main Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Tagir Ulanbekov -200 vs Kyoji Horiguchi +160

• Anthony: The main card will begin at flyweight with a fight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Kyoji Horiguchi. This is the start of Horiguchi’s second stint in the promotion after leaving the UFC back in 2016. He has gone 16-3 competing against solid opponents in RIZIN and in Bellator. Horiguchi is a very complete fighter with a good motor and power for 125 pounds. Ulanbekov is a wrestler that will look to clinch against Horiguchi and control position along the fence. I would think Horiguchi lands well here in the pocket, connecting against Ulanbekov with strong knees and elbows in the clinch. While Ulanbekov is actually a rather high volume fighter he does not land with much that really poses a threat. He has only won once before via knockout. Horiguchi can hold his own against Ulanbekov on the mat with his jiu jitsu. The defensive karate stance should also allow Horiguchi to stuff a few shots. I expect this fight to play out one way with a close decision materializing. Horiguchi should fight well enough to win and cash as underdog but Ulanbekov could certainly steal two rounds if these judges are easily persuaded. Ulanbekov is happy to be fighting here in Qatar where he can steal a decision with takedowns and with control time. Horiguchi will be landing the more meaningful strikes and should win based off of damage. Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision
• Nick: Tagir Ulanbekov trains under Khabib Nurmagomedov, and at one point he was one of the more hyped prospects on the roster at flyweight. He hasn’t fought frequently enough to climb the rankings, but he’s a tough out for almost anyone in the division. As a former Combat Sambo World Champion he’s an excellent grappler, but he also does a good job using his length to succeed on the feet. He sometimes struggles to keep his opponents grounded once he does take them down, but he’s relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and usually does an excellent job of chain-wrestling to control the pace of his fights. This will be Kyoji Horiguchi’s second stint in the UFC. He left the promotion in spite of a 6-1 record back in 2016, and he returns here after successful runs in both RIZIN and Bellator. Horiguchi has a 34-5 professional record, with fifteen wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He held the Bantamweight title in both RIZIN and Bellator, and he also captured the Flyweight championship for RIZIN. While he seems a bit past his athletic prime, Horiguchi is an explosive striker with decent defensive grappling ability. He prefers to stand and trade, but he has a high fight IQ and he generally does a good job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponent. This fight should be competitive, but Horiguchi seems further past his prime than Ulanbekov at this point. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite under the expectation that he’ll be leaning on his grappling here. Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -150 vs Shamil Gaziev +125

• Anthony: Next is a heavyweight fight between Shamil Gaziev and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Gaziev was originally scheduled to fight Serghei Spivac but instead he now faces Cortes-Acosta who appears with just three days notice. He only arrived on his flight into Doha one hour before official weigh-ins on Friday. Cortes-Acosta is a true fighter and somebody that represents the spirit of all Dominicans. He suffered a bad eye-poke in his last matchup but rallied to knockout Ante Delija in that fight nonetheless. Cortes-Acosta is now back at it for his fifth appearance in 2025 after fighting just three weeks ago. Gaziev should be a favorite in this matchup as he is comfortable fighting here as a resident of Bahrain. He is being featured on this card but a change of opponent does likely hurt him. Gaziev had been prepared for a grappler facing Spivac but now draws a very dangerous striker. Gaziev will attempt to lean on his size and pressure attacking to grasp onto Salsa Boy. I think Cortes-Acosta will punish Gaziev for every failed attempt at a shot. He will stay on the outside and land clean strikes against Gaziev as he is moving in. Cortes-Acosta also does well landing big right counters off of timing his opponent’s jab. I trust his cardio more than Gaziev and think he can finish this fight with strikes if he is landing with high enough volume. It will be a tougher fight to score if it goes to a decision and Gaziev has his moments early on. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Round Three KO
• Nick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 8-2 in the UFC and he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game.  He’s athletic for a heavyweight, he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. He has solid technical striking ability, but he mostly throws to set up his powerful overhand right. Cortes Acosta is taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice as a late replacement for the injured Sergey Spivak. Shamil Gaziev is 14-1 professionally,  with twelve of those wins having come via finish. He’s relatively well-rounded with one shot KO power, a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ. That being said he sometimes leaves himself there to be countered on the feet, he’s far from athletic, and his cardio seems to be a major weakness if his fights are extended. He’s a prospect on the rise in a shallow heavyweight division, but the holes in his game are certainly exploitable against top-level competition. Gaziev will be dangerous early here, but Cortes Acosta likely has the durability and cardio to take over this fight as it wears on. If he can weather an early storm, I expect he can find a finish as Gaziev starts to fade. Waldo Cortes Acosta by Round Three KO

Myktybek Orolbai -240 vs Jack Hermansson +190

• Anthony: This is an odd matchup here at welterweight between Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai. It is rare to see older athletes in the UFC moving down in weight and finding any sustained success. Hermansson has been a career middleweight and now made the cut to 170 pounds in what has been an intense fight camp. The 37 year old is fighting to keep himself among the elite contenders still at this juncture. It will be interesting to see how Hermansson perhaps implements his wrestling and grappling more as a welterweight. He does not respond well when takedown attempts are stuffed and most opponents did well timing their uppercuts as Hermansson would move in. His grappling is better than his striking which is a bit awkward and hard to read. Orolbai could struggle with Hermansson’s size here as he has competed as low as at lightweight. I do not think Hermansson will be intimidated here by Orolbai as he previously shared the cage with much bigger threats. Orolbai is a talented offensive striker but has yet to earn a win by knockout since joining the promotion. He is the more skilled fighter overall but I think size will play a major factor in deciding the outcome here. Hermansson is a live underdog that can win by grappling and threatening with submission attempts. Jack Hermansson by Decision
• Nick: Myktybek Oralbai is 13-2-1 professionally, coming off an impressive submission win over Tofiq Musayev. He’s going to be moving up a weight class here, after struggling to make lightweight ever since he debuted in the UFC. Orolbai is relatively well-rounded with six wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s made considerable improvements over his last few fights, primarily in his striking ability. While well-rounded, he is primarily a grappler. He pursues takedowns with relentless pressure and once he grounds his opponents he is very heavy on top for a fighter with his frame. Jack Hermansson, is an excellent offensive grappler who finds most of his success chasing the finish on the mat. His style is fairly unconventional, but he has more brute strength than most do on the mat so he can pull off submissions that most others couldn’t. He can look awkward on the feet, but he throws powerful and accurate strikes and he does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents.  His awkward style makes him a difficult target to find, and his striking continues to improve. That being said, his durability does seem to be on the decline and it could be further compromised here with him moving down to welterweight. This is a volatile match-up as both of these fighters are changing weight classes here. I’ll take a low confidence shot on the underdog in Hermansson as he did look excellent at weigh-ins. Jack Hermansson by Decision

Volkan Oezdemir -240 vs Alonzo Menifield +190

• Anthony: Next is a matchup at light heavyweight between Alonzo Menifield and Volkan Oezdemir. Fighting here in Doha will be preferred for Oezdemir who has trained this camp in Switzerland. He lost his most recent appearance against Carlos Ulberg but Oezdemir had two great wins by finish in the fights prior. He has the advantage of hand speed facing most athletes in this division. Oezdemir connects with power and does well rattling off combos of four and five punches at once. Menifield is a consistent threat here at 205 pounds as well. He has won in both of his previous appearances including an upset of Oumar Sy in his last fight. Menifield was +500 in that matchup so he is accustomed to fighting as the underdog. This is a tough road trip for Menifield but his fight style tends to travel well and allow him to stay in every matchup. He does well clinching opponents against the fence and landing strikes in close proximity. Menifield has much worse defense than Oezdemir but I do think he can match his power and land big counter shots. He tends to find a way to win despite being the less technical striker on paper. Both men have had at least fifteen fights in the promotion and Menifield has the better record. If he does not get knocked out early I like his chances here as the betting underdog. Alonzo Menifield by Decision
• Nick: Volkan Oezdemir is an extremely powerful striker, who has been in there against a who’s who at 205 lbs. He’s faced an extremely high level of competition, but his career does seem to be on a bit of a downturn as his power isn’t quite as devastating as it was when he entered the UFC. He has solid defensive grappling ability, but there is certainly no denying the fact that he prefers to stand and trade at striking range. Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for the division and thirteen of his fifteen professional wins have come via finish within two rounds.  He has not seen much success against quality competition, but he’s shown tremendous power and you can see his fight IQ has improved considerably over the course of his UFC career. What he lacks in consistency and technical ability, he can make up for in athleticism when he’s at his best. This is a volatile match-up between two potent finishers, but I do see Oezdemir as the rightful favorite. He has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing and he’s the much better technical striker in this match-up. Volkan Oezdemir by Round One KO

Ian Machado Garry -280 vs Belal Muhammad +220

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight between Ian Garry and Belal Muhammand. This is a pivotal bout in the welterweight division with a new champion crowned this past weekend. Muhammad is the second ranked contender and the winner of this fight could be next to compete for a title. Notably these two fighters are only competing for three rounds. Muhammad normally benefits from the advantage of his cardio and high-pressure style. He sets a great pace in five round fights and if Muhammad wants to win today he will need to have his foot on the gas from the very start. Garry is a very sophisticated striker with tremendous footwork and high-volume combinations. His boxing is elite and here fighting Muhammad in a large cage he will have the advantage of controlling the distance. Garry will be forced to defend some takedown attempts but otherwise I think he can control this matchup standing. Garry has passed every test thrown at him so far in this loaded division. He seems to have all of the makings of a long-time threat at 170 pounds. Muhammad keeps himself composed as a boxer but he lacks real striking power. Garry should be able to eat him up in the pocket and land heavy kicks against Muhammad at range. I trust the younger and more athletic Garry to win this grueling matchup. I think Garry can even match his career total for strikes landed if this bout does go to the scorecards. Ian Garry by Decision
• Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing his skills in general, but he already shows an impressive professional resume with a 16-1 professional record. His striking continues to improve dramatically, he has a solid wrestling base, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find finishes against a wide range of opponents. Belal Muhammad has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. His stand-up continues to improve, but his greatest strength as a fighter is his pressure and cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous offense. Muhammad will have a grappling advantage here, but it is nowhere near as significant as Garry’s advantage will be in the striking. I expect Garry’s footwork and athleticism will mostly keep this fight standing, where he should be able to outland his opponent on his way to another decision win. Ian Garry by Decision

Arman Tsarukyan -700 vs Dan Hooker +450

• Anthony: The main event is between ranked contenders at lightweight with Arman Tsarukyan facing Dan Hooker. Tsarukyan is eager to earn a title shot off of a victory here tonight. He has won impressively in four straight fights although his last action came back at UFC 300. Tsarykyan may need a round to settle in here, allowing Hooker to gain an early advantage striking. It is clear he will want to implement wrestling in this bout to get the tall striker neutralized on the mat. Hooker lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and has elite kickboxing from both stances. Tsarukyan averages four takedowns per fight and Hooker will certainly be prepared to wrestle here tonight. He has averaged 78 percent takedown defense, very often forcing opponents to shoot in when facing him. While Hooker is a gritty fighter that can defend shots he will be up against it doing so for five rounds. Hooker is starting to show his age while Tsarukyan is conversely one of the prime athletes in this division. Tsarukyan’s cardio and recovery is much better than Hooker who spars hard and brawls throughout each camp. Tsarukyan has a smaller frame that should allow him to dominate these wrestling exchanges. Hooker poses little threat off of his back and Arman knows he cannot contend by purely striking. The Hangman is on a three-fight winning streak and he should not be overlooked as the underdog. Tsarukyan will likely win in the later rounds even if he has eaten a lot of clean strikes. I am expecting this bout to play out much closer than the betting odds suggest. Arman Tsarukyan by Decision
• Nick: Arman Tsarukyan is one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s an effective wrestler as well as a  creative striker with an extremely high Fight IQ and durability. Tsarukyan has one of the better single-leg entries in the division. His scrambling and defensive grappling are outstanding, and he could be realigned for a title shot here with a win in this main event. Tsurukyan has been out of action since he was forced to pull out of a title fight against Islam Makhachev back in January. He enters this fight with a 22-3 record, with fourteen of those wins coming via finish. Dan Hooker is an extremely talented kickboxer. He has powerful leg kicks that he combines with high volume and speed to wear on his opponents. He’s a master of angles and does a great job finding openings for big elbows, knees and punches. He enters this fight on a three fight win streak, but he’s been out of action since August of 2024. Hooker should be competitive early here, but as this fight wears on I expect Tsarukyan’s grappling advantage to prove too much for him to overcome. Tsarukyan is an underrated striker, which should set up his entries for takedowns here. I see the favorite securing a win inside the distance. Arman Tsarukyan by Round Three Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com