UFC Rio: Oliveira vs Gamrot Full Card Analysis

UFC Rio: Oliveira vs Gamrot – 10.11.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Rio: Oliveira vs Gamrot. Farmasi Arena in Brazil will host the event this weekend, a card headlined by Brazilian talent and former champion Charles Oliveira at the top of the bill. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 254-146-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 255-145-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 10-10-2025 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Luan Lacerda -280 vs Saimon Oliveira +220

Anthony: Opening the event tonight are bantamweights Saimon Oliveira and Luan Lacerda. Oliveira was eight pounds overweight during Friday’s weigh-ins. Lacerda still agreed to fight against Oliveira but with a rehydration clause in place. This fight will be cancelled on Saturday if Oliveira arrives at the venue weighing more than 155 pounds. Both men enter this bout coming off consecutive losses but Lacerda appears to be the more complete athlete with better overall defense. Lacerda will not put himself in harm’s way against Oliveira early in this fight. He has the length to dictate where this bout will take place, striking with Oliveira or deciding when to change levels and bring him to the mat. Oliveira presents some challenges here early but I do expect Lacerda to clear if this fight goes on. Oliveira will struggle to maintain consistent output throughout this fight if the pace is too high. Lacerda should be able to outwork Oliveira and make him pay for those errors when cutting weight. Oliveira is fighting with his back against the wall and I expect he will get cut from the promotion without an impressive result here. Lacerda is the rightful betting favorite. Luan Lacerda by Decision
Nick: It is notable that Oliveira missed weight by eight pounds for this fight. Additionally, if he doesn’t stay under 155 lbs when he enters the arena it was announced this fight would be cancelled. Saimon Oliveira is fairly well rounded, with decent power on the feet. He can be hittable in exchanges. However, he’s very athletic. He is a potent offensive grappler as eleven of his eighteen professional wins have come via submission. As skilled as he is offensively, he has struggled to find success at the UFC level as he enters this fight on a three fight losing streak. Luan Lucerda is a talented fighter, but he enters with an 0-2 record in the UFC and he has been out of action since June of 2023. Lacerda is primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ black belt, with ten of his twelve professional wins having come via submission. He puts out a decent amount of volume on the feet, but can be hittable in exchanges. Additionally most of his strikes are thrown with power so he struggles at times to string together lengthy combinations. These are two volatile fighters, but Lacerda has been taking on a higher level of competition compared to Oliveira. Additionally, Oliveira missing weight for this fight suggests he may have had a bad camp or could be injured. There is a chance this fight is cancelled, but if not I expect Lacerda to mostly keep this fight standing until he eventually finds the finish. Luan Lacerda by Round Two KO

Julia Polastri -550 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +400

Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s strawweight between Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The odds are incredibly wide in this matchup but it is a very favorable draw for Polastri here. The Brazilian is a native of Rio de Janeiro and desperate for a victory here at home. Kowalkiewicz is twelve years older than Polastri and no longer fighting in her physical prime. It is not uncommon for Kowalkiewicz to fight hard to a decision but she is getting outworked recently against younger and stronger women. Kowalkiewicz has opposed Brazilians in each of her last two fights, both times getting doubled up on strikes. While she is still throwing quick combinations at opponents Kowalkiewicz is not landing with power. Polastri should land the better shots throughout this fight and also dominate if she would like to use her grappling. Kowalkiewicz is normally comfortable fighting in the clinch but she cannot afford to do that here against Polastri. The Brazilian will march forward and land great shots here with her muay thai in close range. She is my most confident pick to win today. Julia Polastri by Decision
Nick: Julia Polastri is 14-4 professionally, with four wins via KO and three via submission. She’s still rounding into form as she’s only 27-years old, but she’s relatively well rounded and it can be expected we see her make considerable improvements from fight to fight. She is 1-1 in the UFC, coming into this fight off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Lupita Godinez. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is nearly 40 years old, but she is still sharp on the feet offensively. She pushes a serious pace and does a good job stringing together effective combinations. Kowalkiewicz lands more than five significant strikes per minute, but she tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. She has shown improvements in her grappling abilities over the years, but she still finds most of her success just fighting her opponents at range. The line is far too wide here, but these are two women who are seeing their careers move in opposite directions. Polastri will be the much quicker and more athletic fighter in this match-up given the massive age gap, and her superior grappling should allow her to dictate where this one goes. Julia Polastri by Decision

Lucas Rocha -120 vs Stewart Nicoll +100

Anthony: This is a fight at men’s flyweight between Stewart Nicoll and Lucas Rocha. Rocha is still in search of his first promotional win after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series more than two years ago. Fenomeno is just 25 years old with a wealth of experience at 17-2. However, Rocha has not been facing great opponents or staying in active competition. I am not convinced that he is ready to be fighting at this stage given the limited skillset he has displayed to fans so far. Nicoll is going to have a size advantage over Rocha and much better technical boxing skills. Nicoll is also a credentialed grappler with excellent takedowns and offensive jiu jitsu. I expect Nicoll to wear on Rocha throughout this fight, eventually converting takedowns with ease in rounds two and three. Nicoll appears to be the more well-conditioned athlete and I trust him in this fight although he is on the road. Nicoll is an attractive underdog bet when handicapping this matchup on paper. Rocha is dangerous, but he has not yet proven to warrant this much respect from a bettor’s perspective. Stewart Nicoll by Round Three Submission
Nick: Lucas Rocha is 25-years old and 17-2 professionally. He’s a gifted athlete and well-rounded for his age, entering this match-up with ten wins via KO and four via submission. He’s dangerous everywhere offensively, with surprising power for his frame. He has slick BJJ offensively, but his takedown entries and general wrestling ability do seem to leave a lot to be desired. He’s coming off an ugly loss via submission to a tough out in Clayton Carpenter. Stewart Nicoll is 8-1 professionally and 30 years old. He has been out of action since suffering his first career loss, which came via submission to Jesus Aguilar back in August of 2024. Nicoll has primarily fought for Beatdown Promotions, a relatively small regional promotion out of Australia. Nicoll finds a lot of his success striking at range and he has decent power for a flyweight. That being said his grappling is where he can outshine most opponents, as he has underrated BJJ and his wrestling seems to be improving. This one of the more volatile fights on the card as it is relatively low level between two somewhat untested prospects. Rocha will be dangerous on the feet here, but Nicoll has a considerable grappling advantage here. I’ll take a small shot on the underdog as a value side with a clear path to victory. Stewart Nicoll by Round Two Submission

Bia Mesquita -600 vs Irina Alekseeva +425

Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Irina Alekseeva and Bia Mesquita. This is the promotional debut for Mesquita who enters a perfect 5-0 as a professional. The Brazilian is already 34 years old but she trains with a great group at American Top Team and presents a difficult stylistic challenge for Alekseeva. In her past two fights Alekseeva has lost against weak opponents Melissa Mullins and Klaudia Sygula. Alekseeva will not be able to use her judo skills to great effect in this matchup. Mesquita is the much better jiu jitsu practitioner and good at gaining top position in her bouts. Alekseeva will likely attempt judo throws when Mesquita begins to clinch her, but the Brazilian is going to win most of these scrambles and end up in control of Alekseeva. So far Alekseeva has just 66 percent takedown defense. The Russian is also not a very threatening striker despite her great size. Mesquita is a huge favorite for good reason and I am expecting her to earn this victory. Her boxing is steadily improving and I expect she will be a step quicker than Alekseeva is today. She has a chance to finish this fight via submission on the ground. Bia Mesquita by Round Two Submission
Nick: Beatriz Mesquita will be making her UFC debut here, entering this fight with 5-0 professional record at 34 years old. Training out of an excellent camp via America Top Team, Mesquita is a credentialed BJJ practitioner who finds most of her success on the mat where she does a good job advancing position and looking for submissions. Her striking is far from refined, but it has been gradually improving. Irina Alekseeva is just 5-3 professionally, but prior to the start of her MMA career she had a successful run as a credentialed judoka. Her striking abilities seem far from refined, but she is big for the division and it seems she’s more aggressive than a lot of other women on the roster. While it seems she’s made considerable improvements since she made her UFC debut, it is notable that she’s on a two fight losing streak. She has decent power and opportunistic BJJ, but defensively she leaves a lot to be desired. The line is too wide here as Mesquita has a lot to prove with this being her debut. Still, I expect she can take Alekseeva to the ground and eventually score a submission. Bia Mesquita by Round Two Submission

Vitor Petrino -300 vs Thomas Petersen +240

Anthony: Next is a matchup at heavyweight between Thomas Petersen and Vitor Petrino. I cannot suggest betting on this fight as Petrino cannot be trusted as a sizable betting favorite. While the Brazilian has been favored in every UFC fight he has performed poorly before, losing when closing at lines of -550 and -310. He is reckless when closing distance to strike and when shooting for his takedowns. Petersen is a live underdog here but he will need to defend the oncoming takedown attempts from Petrino. Petersen was successful scoring takedowns in each of his appearances thus far, but Petrino figures to have an edge against him throughout grappling exchanges. Peterson was a state wrestling champion in high school but against this caliber opponent I do not think he can maintain top control. Petrino does better work with his jiu jitsu than Petersen and I can see him threatening with submission attempts throughout this fight. Petrino is also a much stronger fighter with better attacks on the feet. Petrino is most dangerous in the first round but he certainly has the punching power needed to turn out the lights on Petersen. I think Petrino will win this fight inside the distance fighting at home in Brazil. Vitor Petrino by Round Two KO
Nick: Vitor Petrino is somewhat untested against elite level competition, but there’s no denying his overall athleticism or his power in striking exchanges. Seven of Petrino’s twelve professional wins have come via KO. He’s almost always aggressive early in fights. His cardio was a weakness for him earlier in his career, but he has shown major improvements in that facet of his game. He is 5-2 in the UFC, most recently securing a submission win over Austen Lane after moving up a weight class to heavyweight. Thomas Petersen is 10-3 professionally, and at 30-years old he’s actually one of the younger heavyweights on the roster. Peterson is relatively well-rounded, but he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come for him. He has power on the feet, but he hasn’t really developed the ability to throw extended combinations. He’s a capable offensive wrestler, but he seems hesitant at times to lean on that part of his game. His cardio and durability are both questionable at best, but he’s coming off a solid win over Don’Tale Mayes which came back in May. Petrino is inconsistent and Petersen is likely to outweigh him. That being said, he is the rightful favorite. He is the much better striker in this match-up, and if he is taken down he has the BJJ to either work back to his feet or find a finish. Vitor Petrino by Round Two KO

Clayton Carpenter -120 vs Jafel Filho +100

Anthony: This a very good flyweight matchup between Clayton Carpenter and Jafel Filho. These are two fighters that not only entertain fun scrambles when grappling, but also put forth great effort to land damage on the feet. Carpenter had won two straight fights via finish before losing by decision to Tagir Ulanbekov. Pastor Jafel Filho is entering with the same streak of two wins and a loss against Allan Nascimento in his last fight. These men are both very confident grapplers who look to land multiple takedowns in each fight. I like Filho in this matchup at near even odds. He is very focused at pressuring opponents and scoring throughout the fight. Carpenter is confident in his pacing over the course of three rounds and he will probably fight more patiently than Filho here in the early going. I think it could be to the downfall of Carpenter dropping round one as I predict. Filho can always fight smart and score minutes in top position to win one of the latter two rounds. Carpenter is a bit too aggressive when grappling, landing strikes and giving up advantageous positions. Filho is a black belt in jiu jitsu while Carpenter is just a brown belt. This matchup is also taking place in Brazil which gives Filho the edge with his home crowd. Jafel Filho by Decision
Nick: Jake Filho gained a lot of attention off a loss in his UFC debut in 2023, where Filho took on Muhammad Mokaev and nearly finished him in a very close fight as a massive underdog.. Filho showed effective striking, and excellent wrestling and BJJ in that match-up. He nearly finished Mokaev via kneebar, before he was eventually reversed and submitted late in the third round. He has since posted a 2-1 record in the promotion, most recently suffering a loss in a narrow decision to a tough out in Allan Nascimento. Clayton Carpenter is a strong grappler with advanced BJJ offensively. He’s a decent striker at range capable of putting power behind his strikes, but he throws from odd angles which can leave him open to be countered. He is 8-1 professionally and 29-years old, but relatively speaking he is still early in his development as a prospect. These are two similar fighters which makes this a tough fight to call. I’m seeing value in Filho as the more active fighter in this match-up and the better striker if this fight takes place on the feet. Jafel Filho by Decision

Michael Aswell -200 vs Lucas Almeida +160

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at featherweight between Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell. Although the short notice debut for Aswell did not end up going his way, he showed great heart and skill in that matchup against Bolaji Oki. Aswell was fighting up a weight class in that bout and still looked very good in the early going. He is likely favored here against Almeida in this spot given Aswell’s great motor and adaptability. While Almeida is going to be landing the cleaner and more precise strikes, Aswell should challenge him in boxing exchanges given their similar length. Almeida has also struggled previously defending opponent takedowns and Aswell is confident taking bouts to the mat. Almeida can be slow moving at times but he tends to do well fighting back up to his feet. Although Aswell can likely control a lot of exchanges in this fight it will be difficult for him to separate himself from Almeida in the judge’s eyes. Almeida will be the fighter landing big counters and potentially scoring knockdowns throughout this bout. I expect this to be a very close decision and I’d rather bet my money on the underdog who represents Brazil. I also think Almeida has more equity to win this fight by finish than Aswell does. Lucas Almeida by Decision
Nick: Michael Aswell is 10-2 professionally and just 25 years old. He is primarily a striker, with five of his ten professional wins coming via KO. He has primarily fought for a quality regional promotion in Fury FC, and his losses have come to a relatively high level of competition. He suffered a loss to Bolaji Oki in his UFC debut, but he gave a decent showing of himself in that fight against a tough out and on short notice. Lucas Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. He is 15-4 professionally and 2-3 in the UFC, coming off a narrow decision loss to Danny Silva. Almeida is relatively well-rounded, with surprising power for his frame. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his cardio has been an issue at times so he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. This fight should be competitive for however long it lasts, but Aswell is my preferred side. He’s the higher volume striker in this match-up and that will likely be the difference here. Michael Aswell by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Ricardo Ramos -200 vs Kaan Ofli +160

Anthony: The main card begins at featherweight with Ricardo Ramos set to face Kaan Ofli. It is the first time that Ramos has competed in Brazil since fighting in Sao Paulo in 2019. The veteran fighter is just 30 years old but desperate to earn another victory here after a rough stretch of fights as of late. Ramos figures to be the much better fighter on paper here and I predict this will be a matchup he cruises in if there is still fighting in his future. Ramos was at one point a contender in this division whereas Ofli is somebody that I believe does not belong. Ofli has gone 0-2 in the promotion after losing The Ultimate Fighter finale against Mairon Santos. He is small for this division and does not pack a meaningful punch. Ramos will be at a clear advantage here striking in this fight against Ofli. Ramos has always been very quick with his combinations and attacking opponents from range. He utilizes creative attacks and spin moves to effectively pressure opponents and get them hurt. Ramos can struggle to defend takedowns on occasion, but Ofli is not a grappler that will likely overpower him in the clinch. I actually believe Ramos is live to win by submission if Ofli does recklessly shoot, exposing his neck. Ramos can sometimes fade as his fights wear on but I will trust him in this spot tonight to beat Ofli quite handedly. He is one of my more confident bets for this event. Ricardo Ramos by Round Two KO
Nick: Ricardo Ramos is a dynamic striker who throws a wide-range of attacks. He has underrated power, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents. As a result, we often see him fall behind on the scorecards even when he’s causing a lot of damage. He throws wild kicks, which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous countershots. He’s a decent grappler, but mostly prefers to stand and strike at range. Kaan Ofli is a well-rounded fighter who shows a solid wrestling base, dangerous BJJ, and serious power on the feet. His ability to work back to his feet if he is taken down allows him to strike aggressively. He likes to throw a lot of straight punches and looping hooks as a means to overwhelm his opponents. He boasts a strong leg kick, and he does an excellent job using his effective striking to bait his opponents into takedowns. As talented as he is offensively, he is somewhat small for the division. Additionally, his aggressive style often creates openings for him to take damage in lengthy exchanges. This is a relatively low level match-up, but I do see Ramos as the rightful favorite. In spite of his inconsistencies, he’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up, he’s taken on a better level of opponent, and he’s the better technical striker by a wide margin if this fight takes place at striking range. Ricardo Ramos by Decision

Jhonata Diniz -120 vs Mario Pinto +100

Anthony: Next is a matchup at heavyweight between Mario Pinto and Jhonata Diniz. This is going to be a very competitive fight and I do not feel confident betting on either side of this one. Diniz will be the local favorite after cutting his teeth in the regional ranks of Brazil. The former Glory kickboxer has underwhelmed UFC fans with his striking since debuting in the promotion. While Diniz was initially billed as a potent kickboxer, his striking is basic with consistent but measured attacks. Diniz does not have very heavy hands but does good work chopping opponents down with leg kicks. He should have a speed advantage in this fight too but I am still not convinced enough to back him. Pinto is surprisingly light on his feet and comfortable in striking exchanges. While Diniz should certainly be favored in kickboxing matches, Pinto does connect with more power and has weapons to close the distance here against Diniz. While Pinto is listed as having the same reach as Diniz I really think that he uses his length much better. The undefeated fighter will get caught in this fight as he attempts to land his own offense but both men are extremely durable. It would not surprise me to see Pinto eat some heavy shots in order to return big and land a knockdown of his own. Jhonata Diniz by Decision
Nick: At 34-years old Diaz is getting a relatively late start to his MMA career but he already has an extensive professional kickboxing background fighting for the likes of Glory and WGP Kickboxing. He is 3-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming via KO to a tough out in Marcin Tybura. Diniz is 9-1 professionally, with seven of his nine professional wins coming via KO. He has better footwork than the back half of the division and his aggressive striking style can be overwhelming for lower level opponents. He has decent cardio and durability, but if he finds himself on his back he does tend to struggle to work his way back to his feet. Mario Pinto is 10-0 professionally, and extremely young for the division at just 27 years old. Primarily a striker, six of his professional wins have come via KO, including a KO win over Austen Lane his last time out in his promotional debut. He has decent cardio and he’s going to be athletic for the division, but his defensive grappling seems to be a work in progress. Additionally, he telegraphs most of his strikes and he’s yet to be tested extensively against top tier competition. Heavyweight fights are always volatile, especially those between fighters who are still somewhat untested at this level. I see some value in Diniz here as the better technical striker in this match-up. That being said, he’s tough to back with any sort of confidence. Jhonata Diniz by Decision

Joel Alvarez -600 vs Vicente Luque +425

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at welterweight between Joel Alvarez and Vincente Luque. Alvarez is making the move up to 170 pounds here today after previously dominating the lightweight division. Alvarez’ huge frame was a cheat-code at lightweight. After previously missing weight this was an expected move up in class for the Spaniard. Alvarez is 7-2 in the promotion with his only losses coming against the best opponents he faced. He is a dynamic and aggressive striker that can unload on opponents early in fights. Watch for Alvarez to back Luque against the fence here early, unloading with boxing combinations and heavy elbows in the clinch. I think a savvy veteran like Luque needs to be respected more than the odds suggest in this spot. While Alvarez is a great offensive fighter, he will be putting himself in position to be hit. Luque has faster hands than Alvarez and the boxing to spark him as he moves in close. It is a much more dangerous stylistic matchup than many think, especially with Alvarez moving up in weight for this one. Alvarez also has just 40 percent takedown defense throughout his career. While I am sure that Alvarez has confidence in his grappling against that of Luque, he will very likely get submitted if these two have prolonged scrambles on the mat. Luque is a blackbelt with three career losses by submission compared to nine total submission wins. I refuse to bet on Alvarez here at -600 although I do expect him to win via stoppage quickly. Joel Alvarez by Round Two Submission
Nick: Joel Alvarez is moving up a weight class here after he had been struggling to consistently make weight at lightweight. He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ black-belt with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s coming off three straight wins under the UFC banner, but he’s going to be tested here as he’s taking on one of the more recognizable names at 170 lbs. Alvarez is generally inconsistent, but when he’s at his best he’s a tough fight for anyone. He’s a potent finisher both on the mat and at striking range, and we continue to see him make noticeable improvements every time we see him in the cage. Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true KO power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He was once known for his excellent durability and his willingness to eat shots in exchanges, but as a 35 fight veteran it seems his durability is starting to wane at an extremely rapid pace. Luque may be the more skilled fighter in this match-up, but I expect he is going to struggle against the faster and more aggressive fighter in Alvarez. Joel Alvarez by Round Two KO

Montel Jackson -330 vs Deiveson Figueiredo +260

Anthony: The co-main event is a bantamweight matchup between Deiveson Figueiredo and Montel Jackson. Figueiredo last competed in May of this year, tapping against Cory Sandhagen due to injury. Figueiredo’s leg was injured badly in that fight but he did not require surgery after getting caught in that lock. While the former champion has always been one of my favorite fighters, it does appear that his time left in competition is limited. Not only is he fighting to overcome injury but Figueiredo is also undersized competing with these guys at bantamweight. Jackson is a bad matchup stylistically given his size and overall strength. Jackson enters this bout on a six-fight winning streak after also competing on that same card as Figgy in Des Moines this spring. He has a seven-inch reach advantage here and a jab that will be catching Figueiredo all night long. The bout will likely be decided by the wrestling exchanges playing out as Figueiredo looks to clinch. Jackson averages more than one takedown landed per round and I expect him to beat Figueiredo to most positions. Deiveson is a black belt that will be falling to his guard while Jackson patiently establishes top position. He should be able to hold position a while here while scoring his own offensive strikes. Figueiredo could catch Jackson in a submission from his back but I really think that is his only chance of winning tonight’s matchup. Jackson should certainly take at least two rounds convincingly in what is just a three round fight. While Figueiredo is always attractive as a large underdog I instead suggest backing the betting favorite here today. Montel Jackson by Decision
Nick: Montel Jackson is good pretty much everywhere. He’s primarily a striker with surprising power for a bantamweight, now coming off six consecutive wins. As good as he’s looked lately, Jackson has been finding most of his success against lower level talent. He was once a highly regarded prospect, but it’s hard not to feel he’s developing much slower than expected. At 33-years old he still has time to make a run towards the top of the division, but he has very little room for error. When he’s at his best, Deiveson Figueiredo is aggressive to the point that his opponents struggle to get into a rhythm against him. He pushes a ridiculous pace and does a good job circling away from danger in striking exchanges. He’s a competent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he’s certainly most content to stand and trade on the feet. A former UFC Flyweight Champion, Figueiredo is past his prime and coming off a knee injury, but still a major step up in competition here for Jackson. Jackson is going to be the much bigger fighter in this match-up, and Figueiredo is far past his prime. That being said, the line here has gotten completely out of control. As long as he tucks his chin, Figueiredo should have enough technical skill to keep this fight close. A low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on the underdog. Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision

Charles Oliveira -110 vs Mateusz Gamrot -110

Anthony: This main event is a lightweight bout between Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot. Oliveira was originally scheduled to face Rafael Fiziev at this event before news of the short notice replacement. Oliveira appears to be rushing back into action here in order to headline a card in his home country of Brazil. Oliveira was a breakthrough champion for his people and gets appreciated as a living legend anytime he can fight at home. However, UFC 317 was only three months ago and Oliveira was knocked out badly fighting Ilia Topuria for the vacant championship belt. As a fan I would’ve preferred to see Oliveira take a more extensive layoff after what was the most brutal KO suffered in his long career. A matchup against Fiziev would’ve likely resulted in another bad head injury for Charles. Instead, this is a favorable stylistic draw for Oliveira against a primary grappler. Gamrot is one of the division’s best in terms of his wrestling skill and top pressure. He averages more than one takedown landed per round and has a motor that allows him to shoot as often as he needs to. He has converted 22 of 45 takedowns throughout his previous three fights. It will be a challenge for Gamrot to effectively score his takedowns early when Oliveira is the most dry and dangerous on the mat. It would surprise me to see Gamrot put himself in position to be choked early, but Oliveira will also threaten him with strikes in rounds one and two. Gamrot is a crafty southpaw striker but he cannot match Oliveira’s muay thai and kickboxing. While Oliveira is extremely aggressive on offense he does not have to worry about protecting his chin in this particular matchup. I am expecting Oliveira to find an early finish in this fight, winning by knockout in under ten minutes. Charles Oliveira by Round Two KO
Nick: Charles Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. A former lightweight champion, Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to current champion Ilia Topuria. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against a fellow grappler in Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot is taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Rafael Fiziev. Mateusz Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. This is an intriguing match-up between two gifted grapplers, but I’m siding with Oliveira for his striking advantage. He should have a power advantage here, and Gamrot is often knocked down, even against lower level opponents. A low confidence play, but I’ll side with Oliveira to find a way to secure a finish here in front of his home crowd. Charles Oliveira by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC