UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes Full Card Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes – 9.27.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Perth: Ulberg vs Reyes. Here we are back down under for a big slate of fights live from Perth, Australia. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 233-141-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 237-137-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-26-2025 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Alexia Thainara -250 vs Loma Lookboonmee +200

• Anthony: The event begins at women’s strawweight with Alexia Thainara facing Loma Lookboonmee. This will be the first true test for Thainara who beat Molly McCann in her promotional debut this spring. Her regional wins did not come against quality opponents although Thainara often won very quickly by sub. She does very well finishing fights with her great jiu jitsu. Lookboonmee has excellent muay thai, doing her best work in the clinch. She is also aggressive in her pursuit of takedowns helping lead her to victory in a lot of recent bouts. She is undersized when compared to Thainara and I believe that takedowns could come in handy here to nullify that size discrepancy. Thainara is talented with her offensive jiu jitsu but I trust Lookboonmee to fight smart and avoid compromising positions. The advantage grappling will be prevalent very early but I expect Loma to wrestle better as this fight goes on and Thainara’s submission holds become less secure. Thainara could perform well striking in the first round of this bout but afterwards I expect it to be all Loma. Her boxing is more powerful and she throws more strikes in combination compared to Thainara. She has really shown more mature performances with every walk into the octagon. I’ve cashed in betting Lookboonmee in her past four fights so I feel inclined to try my luck backing her once again. This fight will be close and odds seem far too wide. Loma Lookboonmee by Decision
• Nick: Alexia Thainara is 12-1 professionally, with seven of those twelve wins coming via submission. She’s small for the division, but she’s well-rounded and it seems she’s improving dramatically every time we see her in the cage. She’s extremely aggressive, and while unconventional she does have a knack for securing takedowns against a wide range of competition. Lookboonmee is known for her advanced Muay-Thai fighting style. She’s a volume striker who throws at a consistent pace and most of her success comes exchanging in the clinch. She has made major improvements at the UFC level since she made her debut, and she’s only lost close fights against top-level talent. As talented as she is, she is small for the division and it does seem her skills are starting to plateau. While I don’t like the price, I do expect Thainara to secure the takedowns she needs here to eventually score a submission. She’s going to be the stronger fighter in this match-up, and while Loma is the much better striker I don’t expect she has enough power to keep Thainara at range. Alexia Thainara by Round Two Submission

Brando Pericic -210 vs Elisha Ellison +170

• Anthony: Next is a fight at heavyweight between Elisha Ellison and Brando Pericic. This is the UFC debut for Pericic who is one of several City Kickboxing fighters competing on tonight’s card. The 4-1 professional has a strong base in wrestling, as well as good kickboxing fundamentals developed through training. He is bigger than Ellison and often the more dominant grappler in his fights. While Pericic should be at a slight technical striking advantage, he can win this fight against Ellison by scoring his takedowns early. Pericic does well timing his shots and executing level-changes as needed. I am going to feel more comfortable betting on him if he does pursue takedowns here tonight. Once Pericic is able to ground Ellison, I am expecting him to work toward a stoppage rather quickly. Pericic is heavy from top position, raining down strikes and even attempting submissions. Ellison is also the lighter man by nearly 25 pounds here when the cage door locks. It is going to be very difficult for the American to rally back to his feet in order to win this one. It is a very favorable stylistic matchup here for Pericic as he makes his debut. Brando Pericic by Round Two Submission
• Nick: We have an interesting matchup at heavyweight between two debutants who were initially scheduled to square off on Dana White’s Contender Series. Brandon Pericic is 4-1 professionally and 31-years old, with all four of his wins coming via first round finish. Pericic fights out of City Kickboxing, and he certainly finds most of his success at striking range. Pericic is an aggressive pressure style fighter who puts power behind all of his strikes. As dangerous as he is offensively, Pericic’s style does often leave him exposed in lengthy exchanges and while his grappling continues to improve, defensively he still leaves a lot to be desired. Elisha Ellison is 28-years old and 5-1 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO. Ellison is another powerful striker who tends to find success at range. He’s aggressive in general and it seems he has a solid chin, but he really hasn’t been tested against a quality level of opponent. Pericic is going to outweigh Ellison by more than 20 lbs here. Additionally, he’s fighting much closer to home and he’s coming out of a CKB camp that is being featured on this card. I really don’t expect much from either of these two in terms of career trajectory, but I do see Pericic as a level above his opponent in this matchup. Brando Pericic by Round One KO

Michelle Montague -250 vs Luana Carolina +200

• Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Michelle Montague and Luana Carolina. Montague represents New Zealand but trains with a great group at American Top Team. She is an intriguing addition to this weight class at 6-0, with all of her professional victories coming by way of submission. Montague has parlayed an early career wrestling into this successful entry to mixed martial arts. She is becoming much more diverse as a striker and I like her overall skillset compared to many opponents already in the UFC. Carolina is a perfect matchup for her debut, drawing into a veteran opponent with a lot of defensive holes. Carolina will struggle to defend takedowns here and prevent Montague from advancing her position. The Brazilian has been taken down at least once in her last seven fights. She has a very hard time stopping double-leg entries along the octagon side. Carolina will have room to work in the cage here against Montague but I do not expect her to land much offense once she gets smothered into the clinch. Montague will likely win via submission or on the judge’s scorecards. Michelle Montague by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Michelle Montague will be making her UFC debut here, having most recently fought for PFL and Bellator. Montague is 6-0 professionally and 31-years old, with all six of her wins coming via rear naked choke. Montague trains out of an excellent gym via American Top Team, and her greatest strength is certainly her offensive grappling ability and BJJ. In almost all of her fights she pursues takedowns aggressively. Her ability to secure chokes has been impressive, but she’s taking a step up here in level of competition as she steps in against Luana Carolina. Luana Carolina does her best work striking at range. She enters this fight on a three fight win streak, but she’s been out of action since July of 2024. She’s going to have a reach advantage here, but she doesn’t really carry the type of power it may take to keep Montague from closing distance. The key to this match-up will likely be Carolina’s ability to keep this fight standing and out of the clinch. She has decent takedown defense, but she struggles to work back to her feet once she’s grounded. The line feels wide here as Carolina has an experience advantage, but I expect Montague can lean on her strength advantage to take this fight to the mat. Once this fight hits the ground, she should be able to dominate. Michelle Montague by Round Two Submission

Josias Musasa -150 vs Colby Thicknesse +125

• Anthony: This is a fight at bantamweight between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa. I am expecting this to be a good clash between these exciting 26 year olds. Both men lost making their UFC debut and now look to reintroduce themselves here at this event. Musasa had been known for winning by finish in each of his fights prior to winning by decision on Dana White’s Contender Series. In March, Musasa missed weight for his fight with Carlos Vera and got submitted in round one as a massive betting favorite. He does not seem to be the most durable fighting at this weight, but Musasa does have heavy hands and a knack for finding the knockout. Thicknesse is a blackbelt in jiu jitsu and clearly at an advantage here versus Musasa on the ground. While Musasa is a huge threat on the feet, he lacks consistent volume and relies far too much on the KO. I think there are a lot of questions still surrounding Musasa and I won’t be betting him in this fight as a slight favorite. How can you trust this fighter at -150 after losing at -800 in his last fight? His victories all came facing very poor competition and at bantamweight we have yet to see him prove capable of defending takedowns, or winning fights that go late. Thicknesse has the opportunity to outwork Musasa and win by decision here tonight. He will likely score a few takedowns tonight and spend several minutes of this bout in top control. Colby Thicknesse by Decision
• Nick: Josias Musasa is 8-1 professionally, coming off an ugly submission loss in his UFC debut to a mediocre opponent in Carlos Vera. At 26 years old, Musasa is still developing as a prospect. He’s a potent finisher at striking range, but his aggressive style could continue to prove costly as he is now taking on competition with the ability to capitalize on the holes in his defense. In ihs debut, Musasa was taken down with relative ease by a fighter in Vera who has struggled at the UFC level. Colby Thicknesse is coming off a hard fought loss in his UFC debut, but he notably took that fight as a late replacement against a really tough out in Alex Topuria. . Thicknesse is 26-years old and 7-1 professionally. Thicknesse is relatively well-rounded, but he prefers to grapple. He has solid cardio and fights at a respectable pace, but on the feet he is hittable and he sometimes has trouble holding opponents down once he grounds them. Musasa has a major power advantage on the feet here, but Thicknesse is the more well-rounded of the two. As long as he stays safe early he should be able to lean on his grappling to secure the win. Colby Thicknesse by Decision

Jamie Mullarkey -110 vs Rolando Bedoya -110

• Anthony: This is a bout at lightweight between Rolando Bedoya and Jamie Mullarkey. Odds are very close for this matchup and I do not think anybody can confidently predict how this fight will play out. Mullarkey is 31 years old but in three of his last four fights he has lost via knockout. While I would like to pick Mullarkey here to get the win fighting at home it is impossible to trust his chin given the recent durability concerns. He has been finished before in his career too but a lot of his losses are against skilled competition. Bedoya is on a three-fight losing streak since making his short notice debut. The Peruvian is a solid fighter that throws consistent boxing offense, but Bedoya is not a knockout threat or dynamic striker at range. Mullarkey can certainly get chinned again in this fight but Bedoya has not really displayed the power to scare me. Mullarkey historically performs well fighting at home in Australia compared to his record competing on the road. I expect that he can win a decision here with his volume and effective blitzing. Mullarkey always makes his bouts into real wars that are difficult to judge and predict. Jamie Mullarkey by Decision
• Nick: Jamie Mullarkey is a well-rounded brawler, who has consistently shown both his toughness and durability. He is more than willing to eat punches to throw them in striking exchanges. While he does leave openings to be countered at times, there is no denying the fact he’s dangerous everywhere. His chin does seem to be weakening a bit over his last few fights, which makes him a dangerous fighter to back with any sort of confidence. Rolando Bedoya is 14-3 professionally with four wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s an extremely aggressive striker with a creative arsenal of attacks on the feet. He’s coming off three consecutive losses, all under the UFC banner, but when he’s at his best he does a good job striking at range and circling away from the power of his opponents. This is a low confidence play between two volatile fights, but I’m siding with Mullarkey here. He should be able to dominate on the mat, it just becomes a question of his fight IQ, durability, and gameplanning. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Three KO

Andre Petroski -185 vs Cam Rowston +150

• Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Cam Rowston and Andre Petroski. This is the UFC debut for Cam Rowston who earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series City less than one month ago. Battle Giraffe represents City Kickboxing and brings a fun style to each one of his fights. Rowston has great size here at middleweight and a decisive edge here against Petroski. Rowston is the much more fluid striker of these two, landing flush combinations and comfortably navigating into and out of the pocket with his footwork. Petroski is comfortable striking from both stance while Rowston will fight orthodox, mixing in kicks and even grappling as needed. I am expecting Rowston to look much quicker than Petroski and although this matchup will not be easy, he should consistently be able to score when throwing offensive attacks. Petroski may be capable of eating a lot of Rowston’s strikes but throughout this fight I think it will only be Rowston making a case to win. Petroski may be able to march forward and clinch Rowston in some moments, but I do not expect him to find any sustained success here. Rowston has the takedown defense to really frustrate Petroski as evidenced in some of his previous bouts. Rowston is an underdog that I am confidently picking to win tonight in Perth. Cam Rowston by Round Two KO
• Nick: Andre Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes, which means in most matchups he’s best suited to lean on his grappling ability. He is 7-3 since joining the UFC, coming off an ugly decision loss to a tough out in Edmen Shabazyan. Cam Rowston will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a recent Contender Series win via KO over Brandon Holmes in a fight that took place just over a month ago. Rowston is 12-3 professionally, with four wins coming via KO and seven coming via submission. Rowston is well-rounded, but he’s been taking on a relatively low level of competition fighting primarily for Eternal MMA in Australia. He’s a dangerous striker with opportunistic BJJ, but he lacks the athleticism we generally see in the middleweight division. Rowston is going to be the longer fighter and the better technical striker in this match-up. That being said, I expect he struggles against the grappling heavy style of Petroski. Andre Petroski by Decision

Navajo Stirling -250 vs Rodolfo Bellato +200

• Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at light heavyweight between Rodolfo Bellato and Navajo Stirling. Bellato’s last appearance was surrounded in controversy, a bout ruled no contest after Paul Craig barely connected with an illegal upkick. Since earning Fight of the Night in his UFC debut I cannot say Bellato’s performances have been very inspiring. I do not think he belongs competing against the top fifteen at this weight. Stirling trains at City Kickboxing. He is a star pupil for Doug Viney and Eugene Bareman. He is built for success in this division standing 6’4 with a 79-inch reach. Stirling fights according to plan, striking at range and using feints and kicks to break down his opponents. He is patient when it comes to landing his counters and putting his opponents away. Bellato will struggle to land clean shots here against Stirling without eating a precise strike in return. Bellato has good power when he can square up his opponents but Stirling is constantly moving and manipulating his angle of attack. This is shaping up to be an easy win for Stirling who will certainly control the majority of this fight. Bellato is not the type to chase takedowns and thus far, Stirling has really held his own against opponents’ grappling. He even did well scoring takedowns of his own in that last fight against Ivan Erslan. Bellato will test himself against Stirling on the feet here and I think the much better striker will win. Stirling is one of my most confident picks on the card and I think he wins by knockout. This event was built around Stirling and his teammate Carlos Ulberg. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO
• Nick: Stirling is just 7-0 professionally, but he also has a lot of experience fighting professionally as a kickboxer. He fights out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand, where he trains with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker, and Carlos Ulberg. Coached by Eugene Baremen, Stirling is a gifted striker who does his best work at range. He is 27-years old, and 2-0 in the UFC. Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He is entering his athletic prime at 29-years old and he fights out of a solid camp via Team Nogueira in Brazil. Bellato is a kill-or-be-killed style fighter who tends to succeed in chaos. He nearly lost his promotional debut to Ihor Potieria, but after weathering an early storm, he managed to take the fight over and then as he scored a ground-and-pound finish in the second round. Bellato will be the better grappler in this match-up, but Stirling’s superior footwork is going to make takedowns extremely difficult. The line feels here as Stirling is still somewhat unproven at this level. Still, he is the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing long enough to eventually score a flashy knockout. Navajo Stirling by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Tom Nolan -150 vs Charlie Campbell +125

• Anthony: The main card opens with this lightweight matchup between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell. This should be a competitive scrap between two fighters looking to rise in the division. Nolan is on a three fight winning streak since making his promotional debut. The big southpaw has been fighting a bit less recklessly after experiencing his first career loss by knockout. Nolan has all the tools to really hurt opponents at lightweight but he does need to be careful in the way that he approaches them. From the southpaw stance Nolan leaves his chin exposed when throwing his own offensive combos. Campbell is less technically skilled with his striking but he does put together his hands rather well. I have been impressed with Campbell changing levels very often and making opponents feel threatened by his wrestling and jiu jitsu. While Campbell is the more dominant grappler on paper, I think he will struggle to really contain Nolan given his frame and size. Campbell does also struggle in terms of his striking defense and I think an opponent like Nolan will see a high percentage of his attempted strikes landing. Both men have equity to win by finish but I favor Nolan if this fight does go the full distance. I expect at least one knockdown here early in round one. Nolan has the long range weapons that allow him to dictate space here facing Campbell. Tom Nolan by Round One KO
• Nick: Campbell is a well-rounded fighter, but most of his success has come in striking exchanges. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo and Weidman MMA, and he comes into this match-up coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner. Campbell is technically sound everywhere, but his durability and defensive grappling ability both seem like they could be more weaknesses than they are strengths. Six of his nine professional wins have come via KO. Tom Nolan 25-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Five of his nine professional wins have come via KO. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently securing a decision win over Viacheslav Borshchev, Nolan is quick and athletic, and he has finishing ability on the mat or at striking range. However, as dangerous as he is offensively his durability and cardio have not been strengths for him so far in his young career. This is a volatile match-up between two inconsistent fighters. I slightly prefer the Campbell side as he should be able to pull away on the strength of a cardio and durability advantage here. Charlie Campbell by Decision

Jake Matthews -400 vs Neil Magny +300

• Anthony: This is a fight at welterweight between Jake Matthews and Neil Magny. The Australian Matthews has been on a hot-streak lately, winning three straight appearances. His last fight was an impressive submission win against Chidi Njokuani coming very early in round one. Magny holds the UFC record for most wins at welterweight with 23 total. He was victorious fighting just six weeks ago and stopping Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos with punches from back mount. Magny is an elite pressure fighter that scores consistently throughout his fights. Matthews figures to have the edge over Magny in terms of his boxing and hand speed but this fight will remain competitive on the feet. Matthews will not be able to score offensive takedowns against a grappler of this caliber. I expect Magny to limit his offensive opportunities by holding Matthews up against the octagon side. Magny does well utilizing his grappling to win minutes and burn his opponent’s energy. I do not think he will struggle to wrap up Matthews who is the smaller man at welterweight. Magny could also score takedowns here making him a very attractive underdog. He is susceptible to the knockout but otherwise I think he will win this fight against Matthews. The seven-inch reach advantage will be helpful at distance as well as when fighting in the clinch. Magny can land great strikes against Matthews in close and I expect him to also dig shots to the body. This is another good value bet, backing the savvy veteran once again. Neil Magny by Decision
• Nick: Jake Matthews has more experience at this level than almost any other 31-year-old in the world. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has found most of his success on the mat. He has 15 wins under the UFC banner since he debuted back in 2014, but most of them have come against fighters that are no longer on the roster/with the promotion. His striking continues to improve, but he can be hittable in exchanges. In this particular match-up he’d be wise to try to lean on his grappling. Neil Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has decent offense grappling ability, but he can struggle to get back to his feet if he’s grounded. Magny is always a live underdog, but he’s well past his prime. The line is far too wide here, but I expect Matthews to secure a win utilizing a grappling heavy gameplan. Jake Matthews by Decision

Jack Jenkins -300 vs Ramon Taveras +240

• Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at featherweight between Jack Jenkins and Ramon Taveras. This matchup should really showcase Jenkins here on display fighting in his native Australia. In his last fight, Jenkins lost to Gabriel Santos when competing at UFC 312. There is still a bright future ahead of Jenkins but obviously there are some glaring holes in his grappling defense that need attention. This particular opponent will not really challenge Jenkins in that area. This should be a striking affair between Jenkins and Taveras who both have great kickboxing. The Brazilian also lost his most recent appearance. This is the first fight for Taveras competing up at 145 pounds and he still missed weight on Friday. Taveras is going to struggle to find consistent offense in this scrap against Jenkins. While Taveras may have an improved motor up at featherweight, he is going to be undersized facing Jenkins tonight. I would prefer to see Taveras competing at 135 pounds but he simply cannot make the weight. Another botched cut is not a good sign at all. Throughout this fight Jenkins is going to score damage against Taveras, landing low leg kicks and putting together combinations with his hands. Taveras will be dangerous here early in round one but Jenkins should take over after that. At the start of round two Taveras will already be compromised from leg kicks landed by Jenkins in round one. I am a fan of his great offensive skills and this matchup should let him showcase his full arsenal of strikes. Jack Jenkins by Decision
• Nick: Jack Jenkins is well-rounded and athletic with decent striking fundamentals, explosive power, and solid overall wrestling ability. He’s capable of weaponizing his cardio and taking fights over late. He’s still making improvements in all facets of his game, but it’s tough to gauge his upside until we see him fighting more frequently. Jenkins’ greatest attack is his leg kick, which I fully expect he’ll try to rely on here. When he’s at his best, his legkick is amongst the best on the roster. Ramon Taveras is 10-3 professionally, with five of his nine wins coming via KO. He’s well-rounded, but prefers to strike. He’s extremely aggressive and dangerous offensively, but his hyper aggressive style leaves him susceptible to be countered in exchanges. Tavares has been out of action since December of 2024 and he’ll be moving up a weight class after continuously struggling to make the bantamweight limit. The line is wide here, but I do see Jenkins as the rightful favorite. Tavares is susceptible to legkicks, and there’s a good chance that will cost him here. Jack Jenkins by Round Three KO

Jimmy Crute -220 vs Ivan Erslan +180

• Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight fight between Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan. Crute rides momentum into this matchup after securing a victory in his last fight against Marcin Prachnio. Crute often will dominate with his grappling in round one before hitting a wall and slowing down his offensive approach. He manages his cardio poorly and certainly could get hurt facing a dangerous athlete like Erslan. It will be crucial for Erslan to keep distance here and prevent Crute from securing top position. He is a striker that does well keeping space and landing at a higher rate than what he absorbs. While this matchup could become sketchy late, I am expecting Crute to secure one takedown very early on. Erslan has just 64 percent takedown defense. He was outgrappled in his most recent performance facing Navajo Stirling back in May. The betting favorite should hold in this matchup and likely find an early win via stoppage. Once Crute establishes position on top of Erslan he can work toward a finish in the first. Erslan is an intriguing live bet only if this fight does go over the 1.5 round total. He can land the better offense than Crute, connecting early with his jabs and kicks. Erslan will likely struggle to defend the initial shot from Crute here as he changes levels. Jimmy Crute by Round One Submission
• Nick: Jimmy Crute was once an exciting prospect at Light Heavyweight. He’s a powerful striker, but many of his wins have come via his outstanding submission ability. Crute is dangerous everywhere, but he is often so aggressive that he sometimes gasses out if he can’t put his opponents away early. Additionally, his durability has been on the decline. Notably, he was finished in all four of his professional losses. Ivan Erslan has spent most of his career fighting for a highly-regarded regional promotion via KSW in Poland. Erslan is an explosive striker with true KO power. He’s extremely aggressive, which can be concerning at times as he’s more than willing to sacrifice defense for offense. He was competitive in both of his fights under the UFC banner, but he enters this fight on a two fight losing streak. Crute is the more-skilled fighter in this matchup, but it’s very difficult to gauge what version of him shows up here. Crute has been wildly inconsistent, but at his best I expect he can outclass Erslan in this one. He’d be wise to lean on his grappling here. Jimmy Crute by Round Two Submission

Carlos Ulberg -250 vs Dominick Reyes +200

• Anthony: The main event is a great scrap at light heavyweight between Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes. The winner of this fight would be in a very good position to fight for the division’s title by the end of the year. I have been extremely high on Ulberg since he joined the promotion. He is on a streak of eight-straight victories with five wins coming by stoppage. The competition has gotten better in each fight for Ulberg and I think he is ready to fight for the belt very soon. Ulberg performed well in his last fight against Jan Blachowicz, winning a unanimous decision there. He is prepared to compete here in this main event with a style suited well for five rounds. Ulberg trains at City Kickboxing and takes a very calm approach to each striking exchange. He has exceptional footwork and great speed reacting to his opponent’s strikes. Reyes is a southpaw with dangerous power, but he is also very susceptible to the finish. Ulberg throws a great lead hook and I think he will find a home to land it tonight. Reyes’ chin has been touched on quite a few occasions and a precision striker such as Ulberg is a threat to knock him out too. Ulberg is much faster and more precise than Reyes, making him the clear side in this matchup. He should be able to control distance against Reyes here while landing a much higher volume of strikes. I expect him to avoid danger early in round one before finding himself a win by knockout in this fight. Reyes has been very aggressive in recent fights and I do not expect that approach to change. Carlos Ulberg by Round Two KO
• Nick: Carlos Ulberg does a good job mixing in feints to trap his opponents. He’s a decorated kickboxer with knockout power in all of his limbs, but he sometimes leaves himself open to take damage in exchanges. He trains with City Kickboxing along with former middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya under Head Coach Eugene Bareman. He’s coming off eight consecutive wins under the UFC banner, including a career best win over Jan Blachowicz his last time out, which came in a narrow decision. Prior to his recent three fight KO streak, Dominik Reyes’ career had been on the decline. In spite of those struggles, he is still best known for his outstanding performance against one of the greatest of all time in Jon Jones back in 2020. Reyes did an excellent job striking at range in that title fight. He threw extremely effective counters and he kept things close on the scorecards for the entirety of five rounds. Reyes is athletic and an extremely dangerous striker at range. He’s a competent grappler with decent BJJ and quality overall conditioning, but his durability has proven to be a major weakness in most of his losses. The line feels wide here given Reyes’ experience advantage. However, this match-up plays to Ulberg’s favor as an excellent counter-striker. Reyes will be live for the upset if he can get his wrestling going, but in all likelihood this fight takes primarily on the feet. While I’m not entirely confident, I do expect Ulberg can frustrate Reyes to the point he can catch him on a counter for the knockout. Carlos Ulberg by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC