Noche UFC: Lopes vs Silva Full Card Analysis

Noche UFC: Lopes vs Silva – 9.13.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of Noche UFC: Lopes vs Silva. This is a special event from San Antonio with plenty of Mexican fighters competing here on the weekend of Independence Day. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 228-133-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
• Nick: 233-128-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-12-2025 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Daniil Donchenko -210 vs Rodrigo Sezinando +170

• Anthony: The card today begins at welterweight with Daniil Donchenko facing Rodrigo Sezinando in The Ultimate Fighter finale. These two were supposed to compete at UFC 319 but Sezinando unfortunately withdrew due to injury. The winner here will get signed to a great contract as tournament champion of TUF Season 33. The injury sustained by Sezinando was just a sprained ankle, something that is unlikely to impact this fight. The Brazilian will be looking to execute takedowns here in order to win. Donchenko proved throughout the show he is decisive on the feet, blending unorthodox striking techniques with some solid power. He is a very determined fighter that tends to force action quickly. These two will clash in the center of the ring very early on. Sezinando in my opinion has much better grappling. While Donchenko will burn energy and perhaps attempt submissions when taken down, Sezinado is the more reliable wrestler and I expect him to spend a good portion of this fight in control. He should figure to be stronger than Donchenko and I expect him to even hold his own on the feet. Sezinado is better suited for a grueling fight and I expect him to win as a betting underdog. Things should become much easier here for Sezinando after a high-pace round one. Rodrigo Sezinando by Decision
• Nick: The winner of this matchup will be awarded a UFC contract as The Ultimate Fighter Season 33 Welterweight Tournament.Champion. Rodrigo Sezinando is 8-1 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He’s relatively well-rounded, but much of his success is found pursuing takedowns and taking his opponents to the mat. He has solid wrestling fundamentals and a dangerous BJJ game. He’s a powerful striker on the feet, but he can be tentative at times and his defensive instincts are somewhat unrefined. Danil Donchenko is 11-2 professionally and 24 years old. He’s an explosive athlete with true KO power in all of his limbs. Seven of his eleven professional wins have come via KO, and in most of his fights he does a good job overwhelming his opponents with his highly aggressive style. Donchenko does a good job forcing himself into the range of his opponents. He does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations and his durability and speed allow him to have success countering. It seems he’s a capable grappler as well, but he hasn’t really been tested extensively against high level wrestling. Sezinando is an interesting underdog here given his likely advantage on the mat. Still, I prefer the Donchenko side in this one. He should be able to mostly keep this fight standing where his superior striking should be the difference. Daniil Donchenko by Round Two KO

Alice Pereira -150 vs Montserrat Rendon +125

• Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Montserrat Rendon and Alice Pereira. It is the debut fight for Pereira who will be the youngest woman to ever fight in the UFC competing here at just 19 years old. This is a prospect who has certainly been on the radar of many with her great skillset at such a young age. It is worth noting the competition she has faced is not high-level at all. Pereira has great kickboxing but she is also known for initiating takedowns and grappling as needed in her fights. This bout should give Pereira a chance to further showcase her striking skills. Rendon is a very good grappler but novice in terms of her own boxing. Rendon tends to rush into the pocket in hopes of taking down her opponents. I expect Pereira to have the size and strength needed to stuff Rendon’s takedowns attempts in the fight here today. Pereira has the skill set to win by finish but even if not I’d expect her to look good, scoring on nice combinations throughout this bout. This seems like an easy matchup in her debut and I expect Pereira to capitalize. She was a much wider betting favorite at the start of this week. Alice Pereira by Decision
• Nick: Alice Pereira will be making her UFC debut here with a 5-0 record at just 19 years old. Primarily a striker, three of Pereira’s five professional wins have come via KO. Pereira is tall with a long frame for the division. She is technically advanced for someone her age, but she really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. She has a good understanding of footwork which she uses to move in and out of her opponents’ range. That being said, her grappling really hasn’t been tested extensively, so there’s a chance we see her struggle if her opponents can take her to the mat. Monserrat has a 6-1 professional record at 36-years-old. She’s getting a late start to her career, but she’s been impressive on the regional scene. Rendon was recently awarded her brown belt in BJJ, but it’s rare we see her lean on that part of her game. She’s an aggressive striker who is more than willing to take a shot to land one. She’s coming off a loss in her UFC debut which came via decision against Darya Zheleznyakova. This is a volatile matchup as Pereira really hasn’t been tested at this level. Still, she should be the much quicker fighter in this matchup. I expect she’ll give Rendon trouble at striking range. Alice Pereira by Decision

Alessandro Costa -400 vs Alden Coria +300

• Anthony: Next is a fight at men’s flyweight between Alden Coria and Alessandro Costa. This is the UFC debut for Coria who was scheduled to face Edgar Chairez at this event. While drawing into the Mexican was going to be difficult, facing Costa on short notice may be an even tougher stylistic test. Costa is a very strong grappler at flyweight and likely much better than Coria on the mat. It is going to be difficult for a boxer like Coria to avoid getting pinned to the ground in this fight. Costa is also a hard hitter with big power in his short hooks. He is a physical specimen at this weight. Coria is quite a bit taller than Costa but that will not benefit him when these two grapple. Costa is a jiu jitsu black belt that will challenge Coria to defend submissions as well. Coria should fight comfortably here in his promotional debut. He is accustomed to fighting in Texas for Fury FC and training in Houston at 4oz Fight Club. While he may land better volume than Costa early, he is going to be forced to defend a lot of takedowns. I think Coria could have a bright future ahead of him but this matchup seems like too much too soon. Costa is likely to win via armbar or a knockout by ground and pound. Alessandro Costa by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Alessandro Costa is relatively well rounded with five of his fourteen professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s extremely aggressive no matter where his fights go, but that sometimes comes at the expense of his defense. He’s a powerful striker and effective in scrambles, but his cardio and durability both do seem to be areas in which he can be exploited. Costa is 2-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming to elite opponents in Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. At 29 years-old he’s still improving, but it is notable he’s been out of action since May of 2024. Alden Coria will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Edgar Chairez. Coria is 10-3 professionally and 27 years old. He’s been somewhat inconsistent to this point in his career, but he has taken on a quality level of regional opponents having primarily fought for LFA and Fury FC. Cora can be dangerous everywhere offensively, with four of his ten professional wins coming by knockout and four coming via submission. That being said this represents a considerable step up for him in terms of level of competition. Coria may have a future in the division, but I expect he’ll be outmatched here. This feels like too much too soon for the debutant. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO

Zachary Reese -250 vs Sedriques Dumas +200

• Anthony: This should be a good fight at middleweight between Zachary Reese and Sedriques Dumas. While Dumas has been a consistent performer since joining the promotion I am not sure how much longer he will be sticking around. Dumas withdrew from his previous fight legally unable to travel due to an ankle monitor. He is a felon that has a hard time staying out of trouble between fights. While toughness and good striking have gotten Dumas this far he is not as technically skilled as a lot of the opponents he is facing. Reese is much more athletic than Dumas and certainly more serious about the sport. He practices at WAR Training Center in Houston as well as Limitless MMA in San Antonio. Today he represents Texas fighting here at home. Reese is very dangerous early in fights, recklessly swarming his opponents. He does very well using his reach to place strikes and set up more powerful combos. Reese’s defense is poor, but Dumas does not have potent knockout power. Reese is also a BJJ brown belt with a decisive edge grappling here. If he elects to make this a ground fight against Dumas I expect him to win via submission. Reese does very well attacking the armbar and transitioning to other submission attempts. He is one of my most confident picks for today’s event. Zachary Reese by Round One Submission
• Nick: Zach Reese is 9-2 professionally, coming off a decision win over Dusko Todorovic. At his best he thrives on aggression. Seven of Reese’s nine professional victories had come via first round stoppage. As impressive as Reese has been on the surface, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Reese is long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. He’s athletic with a solid frame, but it’s tough to know what to expect of him at the UFC level as he has been generally inconsistent to this point of his career. Sedriques Dumas is an athletic striker whose long reach allows him to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He does a decent job moving in and out of range, he mixes elbows into his combinations well, and he has shown he can place a timely counter with fight-ending power. He’s decent on the mat with a strong choke series, but his takedown defense is mediocre at best. He is 10-3 professionally, and 3-3 in the UFC. Dumas is athletic and generally durable, but Reese is the more well-rounded fighter in this match-up. Anything could happen here, but Reese seems to be more deserving of his roster spot. Dumas is likely to make a mistake even if he finds some earlier success. Zachary Reese by Round One Submission

Luis Gurule -210 vs Jesus Aguilar +170

• Anthony: Next is another flyweight bout between Luis Gurule and Jesus Aguilar. This is one of the tougher matchups on the fight card to predict. Gurule had an uninspiring performance in his last fight, losing his debut to Ode Osbourne. I was expecting to see more efficient grappling from Gurule in that bout but he was forced to strike and did not look that good. Gurule is a strong flyweight with decent power but I do not think he is much better than Aguilar on the feet. Aguilar is a very quick boxer with a high-volume attack. Aguilar has almost no power to oppose Gurule but he does have advantages in terms of his footwork and reaction time. I think Aguilar has the better boxing defense and overall more crisp skills. Aguilar is also a very opportunistic grappler. He is quick to jump onto opponents when he can, attempting guillotines and other front chokes. Aguilar has equity to win this fight by submission and that is probably his most clear path. Gurule could edge this fight out on the scorecards by simply surviving and landing the harder blows. I would prefer to bet on the underdog here rather than trusting Gurule to fight smart. Jesus Aguilar by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Luis Gurule is 31 years old and 10-1 professionally, with five of those wins coming by way of knockout. Primarily a striker, Gurule is quick in and out of breaks with surprising power for his frame. He’s coming off the first loss of his career, which came via KO in UFC debut against Ode Osbourne. Gurule had success early in that fight, but he was overaggressive and far from defensively sound. He’ll be looking to get back on track here in a more favorable match-up than he faced in his debut. Jesus Aguilar is 11-2 professionally, coming off a decision loss to a tough out in Rafael Estevam. He’s a decent striker and relatively athletic, but his grappling is his greatest strength as seven of his eleven professional wins have come via submission. Aguilar is 3-2 under the UFC banner and he’s already found more success than many thought he would in entering the promotion. Gurule was a disappointment in his debut, but I expect he can right the ship here. He should be the much stronger and more explosive fighter in this matchup. I expect he’ll have the bigger moments in this one. Luis Gurule by Decision

Tatiana Suarez -450 vs Amanda Lemos +325

• Anthony: This fight is at women’s strawweight between Amanda Lemos and Tatiana Suarez. In her last fight Lemos proved that she still has it, turning away the oncoming talent Iasmin Lucindo. Her grappling appeared to be a bit improved in that bout but Lemos will face an entirely different test here today. Suarez is coming off defeat in her last fight challenging Zhang Weili for the title. The champion had an all-time performance in that fight, stuffing 14 of 15 attempted takedowns. Suarez is an incredible talent, bringing elite wrestling into the UFC octagon and smothering almost all of her competition on the mat. She averages 1.55 takedowns landed per round with a success rate of 47 percent on attempted shots. Lemos has the edge striking against Suarez sure, but this is going to be a very one-sided fight if Suarez does get to her takedown. Lemos has proven susceptible to elite wrestling and Suarez is as good as there is in this division. Lemos has tremendous boxing skills but she does not really possess fight-ending power. She also does not have the shoulders or hips needed to out wrestle a two-time freestyle medalist. Suarez will have her way with Lemos here grappling, making this a rather easy fight to call. Tatiana Suarez by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Tatiana Suarez is best known for her olympic level wrestling ability. She averages more than five successful takedowns per fifteen minutes, and she does an excellent job controlling her opponents and dominating them on the ground. Suarez’s striking is far from refined, but it is effective enough to allow her to close range and then drag most opponents to the mat. She has notable wins over Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza, and Jessica Andrade. As talented as she is, she has been out of action since suffering the first loss of her professional career which came in a title fight loss against Weilli Zhang back in February. Amanda Lemos is an effective striker at range with underrated power for the division. She’s 14-4-1 professionally with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. She’s a technically sound striker and competent on the mat, but she’s risen through the ranks off her brute strength and power on the feet. This is another tough fight to call given Suarez’s history of injuries. Still, I do see her as the rightful favorite here. She’s going to be the bigger fighter in this match-up, and her wrestling and grappling ability is on a level that Lemos really hasn’t had to deal with to this point in her career. The line feels far too wide, but I’m siding with Suarez. Tatiana Suarez by Decision

Claudio Puelles -130 vs Joaquim Silva +110

• Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Claudio Puelles and Joaquim Silva. I struggle to pick this matchup with any confidence but my selection to win will be Puelles. During moments when this fight is taking place on the feet one would figure Silva has a decisive edge. At 36 years old Silva is still moving well and hitting opponents with powerful strikes. Silva does very well in close exchanges and unloading big shots from positions in the clinch. Puelles fights a very unorthodox style striking in order to set up his elite ground game. Normally Puelles is desperately looking to chase submissions against opponents because his jiu jitsu is so good. However, Silva is a BJJ blackbelt with advanced skills when his fights hit the mat. He has never been submitted before and I am doubtful that he gets submitted here today. Puelles may pursue takedowns and leg attacks here but Silva will likely find ways to escape or at least regain his guard in those exchanges. Puelles should be the busier fighter offensively, whether that be by scoring takedowns on Silva or landing punishing kicks throughout the fight. This bout may not be a fun watch for viewers but I am expecting Puelles to dominate the optics here. Silva’s best chance of winning tonight comes via knockout. Claudio Puelles by Decision 
• Nick: Joaquim Silva is a BJJ black belt, but he doesn’t really have the wrestling or takedown entries required to get the fight to the mat against stronger opponents. He’s a flashy striker, but he usually only carries his power in the earlier rounds. He is 13-5 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Drakkar Klose. Claudio Puelles is a dangerous BJJ black belt, but mostly one dimensional. He’s been out of action since February of 2024, and he enters this matchup coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his professional career. Puelles, while talented, hasn’t shown an ability to win fights if he can’t get his grappling going. Pulles’ BJJ is dangerous, but his striking is slow and predictable offensively and his striking defense is a major hole in his game that he’s been seemingly slow to correct. These are two volatile and inconsistent fighters, but Pulles should be about to get his grappling going here as this fight wears on. Another low confidence pick, but I see Puelles youth and strength in grappling being the difference here. Claudio Puelles by Decision

Dusko Todorovic -400 vs Jose Medina +300

• Anthony: The preliminary card ends with middleweights Jose Medina and Dusko Todorovic. This is an extremely low-level fight and I do not have confidence backing Todorovic. Neither one of these two have any real notable wins to their credit, largely beating up on terrible competition. Todorovic’s three victories in the promotion came against opponents that have since been cut. While he can be an aggressive fighter engaging with his kickboxing early, Todorovic tends to fight less efficiently outside of round one. His power makes him a clear favorite in this spot but Medina has notoriously been tough to finish. I know that Dusko can crack very hard but I do not think Medina will fold here in the first five minutes. These two can certainly produce an entertaining fight if they do just go back and forth standing. Todorovic could also shoot for takedowns here if he realizes that Medina’s chin is granite. The Bolivian fighter has terrible takedown defense and no answer to opponents who shoot on his legs. Medina can normally fight his way back to the feet but he can never stuff the initial shot. He only defends on average 31 percent of takedown attempts. An upset here should not be surprising, but I find it hard seeing a clear path to victory for Medina. He only has one advantage here against Dusko and that is when comparing durability. Dusko Todorovic by Round Two KO
• Nick: Dusko Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He’s well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. Jose Medina is one of the few fighters ever to be awarded a UFC contract off a Contender Series loss. He is 11-5 professionally, and 0-2 in the UFC. Medina’s greatest quality is certainly his chin. In many of his fights, we see him take massive damage and continue to push a pace in spite of it. He is far from technically skilled, but his toughness and durability have allowed him to find moderate success in the sport. This is an extremely low level match-up, but Todorovic is the rightful favorite. Medina doesn’t really have the one-shot KO power required to put him away, and Todorovic should be the better wrestler here by a considerable margin. Dusko Todorovic by Decision

Main Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Santiago Luna -130 vs Quang Le +110

• Anthony: The main card begins with a fight at bantamweight between Quang Le and Santiago Luna. This fight is near pick’em odds and tough to call as Luna makes his debut. The undefeated prospect represents Mexico here against Le who is 1-2 since joining the UFC. Luna is getting a chance to showcase his skills on this main card here but I have not seen enough out of him to really excite me. I am sure he will look better with every showing as he trains with the team at Entram Gym. He is comfortable with his striking, throwing a high volume of attacks without any fear of his gas tank deplenishing. Luna works hard to control the center of the ring and keep kickboxing exchanges flowing. Still this is just a 21 year old fighter with no quality experience to his credit. Luna has not yet fought a full fifteen minutes through just six professional fights. Le has been a reliable performer and I feel that he will still be there to push Luna in rounds two and three. Le is willing to engage opponents in the pocket but he will win this fight by implementing his wrestling even more. He has scored at least one takedown in each one of his fights. Le should be the much stronger grappler in this spot, controlling Luna and wearing on him in the clinch. Quang Le by Decision
• Nick: Quang Le is 9-2 professionally, coming off an impressive submission win over a tough out in Gaston Bolanos. Le has primarily fought for a highly regarded regional promotion in LFA. He’s 33 years-old, fighting out of Vietnam. He’s primarily a striker with excellent power for the division, but he’s hittable in exchanges and often sacrifices defense to close distance and swing for the fences. He is 1-2 in the UFC, but it seems he is still making considerable improvements from fight to fight. His grappling, especially, has come a very long way since he made his UFC debut in August of 2024. Santiago Luna will be making his UFC debut here, with a 6-0 record at just 21 years old. Luna is relatively well rounded, with two of his professional wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. As impressive as Luna does seem to be regionally, there is no denying this match-up with Le represents a major step up in competition for him here. He could be dangerous early here, but as this fight is extended I expect Le’s technical advantages to allow him to pull away. Quan Le by Round Two Submission

Carlos Diego Ferreira -120 vs Alexander Hernandez +100

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Carlos Diego Ferreira and Alexander Hernandez. Just last month at UFC 319, Hernandez beat Chase Hooper by knockout as a sizable betting underdog. The stars aligned for him to compete now at Noche and represent San Antonio at home. He has looked great over the course of his last three fights, appearing to be very strong in the cage and fighting more patiently than before. I am not sure if this turnaround may be coming too quickly for him but Ferreira is an opponent that Hernandez will have the striking advantage against. Ferreira will struggle to match Hernandez speed and I think he is unlikely to attempt to wrestle. While these two engage kickboxing Hernandez will be a step quicker, evading attacks and punishing Ferreira with his kicks. Ferreira is starting to look his age now at 40 but he still has the power to compete in this fight. He has fought top level competition for years in this lightweight division. I expect both men to have their moments here throughout heavy boxing exchanges. Hernandez was a moderate favorite when this fight was announced and I struggled making my selection. Getting him now at near even odds I think Hernandez is absolutely my preferred side. Alexander Hernandez by Decision
• Nick: Carlos Diego Ferreira is one of the more decorated BJJ black belts in the UFC. He’s more than competent on the feet, but his offensive grappling ability is definitely his greatest strength. Seven of his nineteen professional victories have come by way of submission. He’s coming off a decision loss to Grant Dawson in which he was outgrappled by a wide margin, but he’s in a more favorable stylistic match-up here against Alexander Hernandez. Alexander Hernandez has KO power on the feet. He’s also a decent defensive grappler, but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. His cardio has been improving since he moved his training camp to Colorado, but it still seems to be more of a weakness than a strength. He’s extremely gifted athletically, but wildly inconsistent. His hyper aggressive style almost always leads to him fading in later rounds if he can’t find that early finish. Hernandez is the younger and quicker fighter in this match-up, but I still expect Ferreira to outclass him as this fight wears on. Hernandez will be very dangerous early, but as this fight wears on I expect Ferreira can work for a finish as he leans on his superior BJJ. Carlos Diego Ferreira by Round Two Submission

Kelvin Gastelum -250 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +200

• Anthony: The next fight is a middleweight contest between Dustin Stoltzfus and Kelvin Gastelum. Once again, Gastelum has disappointed fans by weighing in five pounds over the limit on Friday. The talented fighter has always been lackadaisical in his approach to fighting and training. I find it very hard to ever trust Gastelum as a betting favorite. This matchup could give him some trouble facing a big orthodox opponent like Stoltzfus. The extra weight will be a benefit for Gastelum who does figure to still be outsized. Stoltzfus may rely on his physical advantages here, shooting for takedowns and attempting to grapple with Kelvin. Throughout his career Gastelu has 58 percent takedown defense but he has historically done well shucking off the first few takedown attempts. A talented grappler like Stoltzfus could definitely overwhelm Gastelum if we do see prolonged exchanges on the mat. While striking, Gastelum will still be the quicker fighter with better natural boxing skills. It is tough to know what version of him will appear on fight night but it should be an inspired performance fighting on this Noche card. I expect him to win on the judge’s scorecards if this fight does go the full distance. Kelvin Gastelum by Decision
• Nick: Dustn Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s hittable on the feet and tentative in exchanges. He has some power but it’s rare we see him in the pocket long enough to land it. Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t been all that impressive recently, but there is no denying he has shown flashes of greatness in the past. His war with Israel Adesanya is considered by many as one of the best title fights in the history of the sport. Gastelum has surprising hand speed, and impressive cardio and durability. Additionally, his boxing is undeniably at a tremendously high level. As talented as he is, Gastelum is just 2-4 across his last six fights. His defensive grappling ability seems to be regressing rather than improving and he once again missed weight, this time by five points. These are two volatile fighters, but I’m still seeing Gastelum as the rightful favorite. Even missing weight, the skill gap here should be wide enough for him to mostly keep this fight standing and then outland Stoltzfus on the feet. Kelvin Gastelum by Round Three KO

Jared Gordon -250 vs Rafa Garcia +200

• Anthony: Tonight’s featured bout is a fight at lightweight between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon. This should be a rather competitive fight between two fighters that I consider evenly matched. Gordon is 37 years old but he is still fighting as well now as he ever has. The durable boxer does well patiently stalking opponents and landing his strikes first in violent exchanges. Gordon is known for his consistency and the toughness he has shown. He may never really pull away in his fights but it is also rare that he ever gets completely dominated. Garcia will struggle to match Gordon’s striking volume given his poor defensive awareness. I am expecting Gordon to quite comfortably win this fight as it takes place on the feet. Garcia will rely on his wrestling here, averaging more than one takedown landed per round in the UFC. His takedown accuracy is rather high but Gordon defends 62 percent of opponent takedown attempts. Gordon has not been taken down once since fighting Grant Dawson in 2022. He continues to improve and although age does become a factor here soon, I think Gordon still has several victories ahead of him. He is the rightful favorite in this bout. Garcia will not be able to hold him down for two full rounds. Jared Gordon by Decision
• Nick: Rafa Garcia has decent offensive grappling ability, but prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but his defense and overall decision making leave him vulnerable against even lower level opponents. His cardio has improved since he shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, but he does have a history of fading late in fights. Garcia is 4-5 in the UFC, and he’s been generally inconsistent since making his debut. Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, and he’s built a name on fighting competitively against a high level of competition. Gordon works well behind his jab, he does a decent job closing distance to throw power, and he also does a good job timing takedown entries against a variety of his opponents. At 37-years old he’s one of the older fighters in the division, but he’s still a tough out for any lightweight outside of the top-15. These are two similar fighters, but Gordon ahs had the more impressive career of the two. He’s been finding success against a much higher level of opponent. Gordon is the better technical striker in this matchup, and he’s also the better wrestler if this fight hits the mat. Jared Gordon by Decision

Rob Font -120 vs David Martinez +100

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at bantamweight between Rob Font and David Martinez. This booking comes on a bit short notice although both men were prepared to face different opponents on the card. Font was scheduled to face Raul Rosas here while Martinez was booked in an easy fight opposing Carlos Vera. While Font likely spent all camp drilling his takedown defense I am sure he is pleased to get matched up against a striker instead. I expect that the veteran fighter will take advantage of this opportunity. Font has looked good in his previous two fights doing enough to earn a decision victory on both of those occasions. Font is going to land more volume than Martinez throughout this fight. I expect the bout to be decided based on how many big moments Martinez is able to produce. Font’s technical boxing skills are better than Martinez but he does not typically win rounds with knockdowns, instead Font scores by consistently working his jab and combination attacks. Martinez is a great prospect with the power to finish Rob Font, but it will be a challenge to close the distance and land against him. Font has a four-inch reach advantage which helps a lot facing this style bantamweight. At near even odds, I think he is the much better bet here this weekend. Rob Font by Decision
• Nick: Rob Font is a very skilled boxer with a solid overall game. He’s had a lot of success in the UFC, outclassing opponents on the feet utilizing nearly flawless footwork and a refined traditional boxing style. As talented as he is, Font is 234 across his last seven fights. He does seem to be slowing down a bit at 38 years old, but it does seem he’s in a winnable match-up here against David Martinez. Martinez is 12-1 professionally, with ten of those wins coming by knockout. Martinez has taken on a solid level of regional opponents, as he has primarily fought for Combate Global. He has explosive power for a bantamweight, and his instincts as a striker are advanced for someone his age and level of experience. He’s coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut, a round one KO of Saimon Oliveira. That being said, this match-up with Font represents a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition. This match-up will likely come down to Martinuez’s ability to score legkicks early as well as Font’s durability at this point in his career. This is a low confidence play, but I’m going to side with Font here as he has only been losing to top level opponents. Nothing would surprise me here, but I can’t help but lean on experience in this one. I also see Font having a grappling advantage here if he’s not finding success on the feet. Rob Font by Decision

Jean Silva -250 vs Diego Lopes +200

• Anthony: The main event is a featherweight fight between Diego Lopes and Jean Silva. These fighters both competed last at UFC 314. Lopes challenged for the title and lost to Alexander Volkanovski that night. Conversely, Silva looked great in his fight against Bryce Mitchell winning via stoppage and earning Performance of the Night. He is a very good striker, often using feints and taunts to set up his finishes. Silva has a great blend of speed, agility, and surprising one-punch knockout power. Lopes may look to engage with his grappling since he cannot match Silva’s firepower standing. Silva will probably have the bigger moments over the course of this fight. Judges will likely favor Silva’s big actions and damage when scoring a decision here. Silva also does have the power to stop Lopes although I think a submission win is more likely. Lopes is durable and very poised, but as fights wear on he tends to become less productive. This is the first main event spot for Silva but I trust that his cardio is going to hold. Of the team of Fighting Nerds he is the most technically skilled. He is going to find success countering Lopes, but Silva is also a very emotional fighter. I do not trust him to fight a smart gameplan since he seems to really have beef with Lopes and his corner. I am probably not going to bet anything on this fight although I think it will end inside of the distance. I cannot suggest putting money on Silva if he closes anything higher than a -250 favorite. Jean Silva by Round Three Submission
• Nick: Jean Silva is 16-2 professionally, 28-years old, and fighting out of an excellent camp via Fighting Nerds in Brazil. Silva is relatively well-rounded with twelve wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. Silva has a flashy style, but it is certainly by design. He does a good job throwing feints to bait his opponents into power shots, and his durability and cardio have been strengths for him up to to this point in his career. He carries a lot of momentum into this match-up, most recently securing a submission win over Bryce Mitchell, back in April at UFC 314. Diego Lopes is 25-7 professionally with ten wins coming via KO and twelve coming via submission. He’s primarily a grappler with slick BJJ and excellent overall scrambling ability. He has notable wins over the likes of Brian Ortega and Dan Ige, but he suffered a loss his last time out in a match-up against Alexander Volkanovski for the then vacant UFC Featherweight Championship. This is a high level match-up between two well-rounded fighters. Lopes is the better grappler, but Silva’s strength should help him mostly keep this fight on the feet. There isn’t much value on Silva as the favorite, but I do see him as the side here. He’s durable and the more explosive fighter in this match-up. Lopes has been impressive, but his fights seem to play out closer than they should. While I don’t like the price, I do expect Silva can pull away in this one. Jean Silva by Round Three KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC