UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev - Full Card Analysis
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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev – Full Card Analysis

August 16, 2025
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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev – 8.16.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev. This event features a thrilling middleweight title fight with the belt on the line here in Chicago Illinois. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 207-117-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
  • Nick: 210-114-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-15-2025 at 9pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Alibi Idiris -200 vs Joseph Morales +160

  • Anthony: This fight between Joseph Morales and Alibi Idiris will decide The Ultimate Fighter Season 33 winner at flyweight. The reality show concluded this week and now a live final match will decide which of these two athletes gets signed to the promotion. Idiris is an undefeated fighter from Kazakhstan, training with contemporaries like Shavkat Rakhmonov. He is a very complete martial artist who blends great wrestling with striking attacks. In terms of his stand-up Idiris is comfortable with his kickboxing. He throws a wide arsenal of attacks and moves very light on his feet from the outside. Morales has more traditional boxing and it will be tough for him to match Alibi standing. Morales is known for his great jiu jitsu and overwhelming submission grappling. I expect Morales will struggle trying to establish top position against an opponent of this caliber. He has improved drastically over the course of the show but I still do not know if he is quite ready to compete at this level. Idiris is the rightful betting favorite, likely relying on his judo and grappling to earn a win. This fight will likely go the full three round distance. Alibi Idiris by Decision
  • Nick: The winner of this matchup will be awarded a UFC contract as The Ultimate Fighter Season 33 Flyweight Tournament Champion. Alibi Idris is a highly regarded prospect with a 10-0 professional record coming into this fight. He trains out of Kazakhstan with Shavkhat Rakhmanov, and he’s one of the more well-rounded fighters to debut in quite some time. Idris is a creative striker offensively with surprising power for his frame. That being said ,most of his success has come on the mat as he’s an elite grappler with dangerous BJJ. Joseph Morales will be fighting to break into the UFC for the second time. He was cut after an 0-2 stint back in 2018, but he has since strung together three straight wins on the regional scene. Morales is a decent striker, but he can be hittable in exchanges. Like Idris, most of his success has come on the mat as six of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. Morales has an experience advantage here, but Idiris is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup and it seems he’s much closer to his physical prime. Morales finds most of his success on the mat, but I expect he’s outclassed in this fight. There is always volatility when we’re talking about fighters debuting in front of a crowd, but Idiris has the skills to win this one wherever it goes. Alibi Idiris by Round Two KO

Karine Silva -220 vs Dione Barbosa +180

  • Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Dione Barbosa and Karine Silva. This fight was made on abbreviated notice after Silva was originally scheduled to face JJ Aldrich here. Barbosa of course agreed to step in with limited notice against an opponent that she has already beaten before. The fight is a rematch of a 2019 meeting between these two that Barbosa won via unanimous decision. Silva has evolved a lot as a fighter since then and I think she surely did improve enough to win today. However, I do not think she warrants this price tag against an opponent that could control her on the ground. Silva lost in her most recent appearance, yielding three takedowns to Viviane Araujo. Although she continues to evolve, Silva always prefers to compete with opponents on the feet. She is a much better striker than Barbosa with faster hands and much more consistent offensive output. Barbosa will rely on her judo blackbelt to bring Silva to the mat once again in this matchup. She could threaten Silva with some submissions here but I’d rather see Barbosa hold onto dominant positions and win this fight by taking the rounds that she can. There is good value on Barbosa as a betting underdog given the stylistic clash we are about to see. Dione Barbosa by Decision
  • Nick: Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is 4-1 under the UFC banner and 18-5 professionally. He BJJ is more advanced than many ranked fighters in the division. She is coming off a hard fought loss to a tough out in Viviane Araujo, but prior to that she had strung together an impressive eight fight winning streak. Dione Barbosa is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured JJ Aldrich. Barbosa is 33 years old and 8-3 professionally, most recently winning via submission in a dominant performance against Diana Belbiţă. She looks to grapple in most of her fights. She has dangerous offensive BJJ, but on the feet she seems to take a lot of damage in exchanges. This is a low confidence play, but I slightly prefer the Silva side. She’s put on a lot of muscle over the past few years and she’s the fighter entering this matchup with a full fight camp. Barbosa will be dangerous, especially on the mat, but on short notice I expect she could struggle as this fight wears on. Karine Silva by Decision

Edson Barboza -140 vs Drakkar Klose +120

  • Anthony: This is a matchup at lightweight between veterans Edson Barboza and Drakkar Klose. Barboza last competed in a main event versus Lerone Murphy earning Fight of the Night. He has taken home performance bonuses in each of his last three appearances. Barboza clearly still has it all working for him even at 39 years old. I think he will be more comfortable finishing his career here at lightweight rather than making the brutal cut to 145 pounds. He is explosive and very dangerous with his kickboxing. The five-inch reach edge he holds over Klose will play a key factor here as Barboza makes it very difficult for opponents to close the distance. I have never been all that impressed with Klose and while I think he is certainly a well rounded fighter he is not nearly as technically skilled as Junior. Klose’s resume pales in comparison to that of Barboza who has shared the cage with champions and contenders for years. Barboza is going to find his offense landing more consistently and perhaps a knockout will materialize. I think Barboza is a good bet here as a small betting favorite. Klose fought a long striker in his most recent matchup and got battered right away in round one. Edson Barboza by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Edson Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Barboza has an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. Barboza has been inconsistent at times, but he usually only struggles against grapplers. As skilled as he is, it is notable that he’s been out of action since February 2024. There’s no denying he’s past his prime, but we could see a better version of him here as he moves back up to lightweight. Drakkar Klose has a solid wrestling base, but he is known as a powerful and athletic striker that pushes a serious pace. He’s found success against a quality level of competition, with notable wins over Bobby Green, Joe Solecki, and most recently Joaquim Silva. Klose is well rounded with decent defensive grappling ability in scrambles. He’s shown quality technique no matter where his fights go, but he is overaggressive at times which can make him vulnerable against less-skilled opponents. Klose has an excellent calf kick and he does a good job grinding his opponents up against the cage. His boxing continues to show considerable improvements, and his power and durability have both shown to be strengths in his overall game. That being said, he’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Joel Alvarez and he’s been out of action since that fight back in December of 2024. Klose has a path to the upset here if he can get his grappling going. That being said, I expect Barboza can have the bigger moments in this fight and land the bigger shots. This is a tough one to call, but I’m siding with the favorite to find a finish late. Edson Barboza by Round Three KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Chase Hooper -320 vs Alexander Hernandez +250

  • Anthony: This is a bout at lightweight between Alexander Hernandez and Chase Hooper. These two are both looking to earn their way into fighting bigger names at 155 pounds. Hooper has won five straight and continues to look better in every single performance. He scored eight takedowns in his last fight and controlled Jim Miller for more than ten minutes. Hooper is known for blackbelt grappling and intense pressure on the mat. Hernandez will also be challenged with navigating Hooper’s length and quick attacks. The 25-year-old has really filled into his frame here at lightweight and I am expecting him to continue climbing toward the top ten soon. He has proven he can take a punch and I do not think Hernandez will get very many opportunities to rock him. While Hooper is known for his phenomenal grappling, he is finally becoming comfortable with his strikes and showcasing rather high level kickboxing. He will use kicks and knees to keep Hernandez from closing the distance. When grappling, his size advantage will also be felt as he outscrambles Hernandez and likely makes his way onto the back. Hernandez has always been confident in his own wrestling but this is one matchup that could see him getting into trouble. Hooper has high-level jiu jitsu and the ability to reverse any position right away. He will do just fine controlling Hernandez on the ground and advancing toward a submission finish. Chase Hooper by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Chase Hooper has extremely advanced grappling ability for a 25-year old. Eight of Hooper’s sixteen professional wins have come via submission. In many of Hooper’s past fights he was dramatically outclassed on the feet, but he does seem to be improving in that area. On the mat his long limbs provide him an excellent base for BJJ, and when his fights hit the ground he’s as creative as he is dangerous offensively. He enters this fight on a five fight win streak, and he has been much more consistent since moving up a weight class to 155 lbs. There is no denying the fact that Alexander Hernandez has KO power on the feet. He’s also a decent defensive grappler, but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. His cardio has been improving since he moved his training camp to Colorado, but it still seems to be more of a weakness than a strength. He’s extremely gifted athletically, but wildly inconsistent. His hyper aggressive style almost always leads to him fading in later rounds. The line feels wide here as Hernandez is the much better striker in this matchup and he’s going to be dangerous early. That being said, I do expect Hooper to dominate once he weathers that early strom and takes this to the mat. Chase Hooper by Round Two Submission

Lupita Godinez -150 vs Jessica Andrade +125

  • Anthony: The next matchup is a women’s strawweight fight between Jessica Andrade and Lupita Godinez. Andrade successfully made weight on Friday as she moved back down to 115 pounds. Throughout her career this has been the weight class she performs best including a brief stint as the champion. While Andrade did look bad in both previous losses, she was physically dominated against stronger flyweights in both of those contests. She is much more imposing at this weight boasting fight-ending power and much improved takedown defense. Godinez has the offensive wrestling to give Andrade some troubles here but I think this fight will be very competitive from start to finish. Andrade will have a clear advantage here standing, landing power strikes but also connecting much more often with the longer reach. Godinez averages 3.12 takedowns landed per fight but she is not always urgent to pursue her wrestling early. Andrade has deficiencies in terms of her defensive grappling but I expect her to stuff the initial shots here. Godinez will not overpower her. I like the value of Andrade as the underdog although these odds were much better earlier in the week. Jessica Andrade by Decision
  • Nick: Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged nearly 3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but she absorbs nearly as many strikes as she lands. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Godinez has a clear path to victory if she chooses to lean on her grappling. That being said, her Fight IQ has been questionable at best. Jessica Andrade fights out of a compact stance and she’s easily one of the most powerful punchers in WMMA. She lands nearly 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and she’s fought and won against the majority of the elite women on the roster. As talented as she is, there is no denying the fact she’s on the back half of her career. She’s coming off an ugly submission loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius at 125 pounds, so she’ll be moving back down to strawweight here which is where she has found most of her success. While Godinez certainly has a clear path to victory on the mat here, I have trouble trusting here as a favorite given her inconsistencies. Andrade is a natural strawweight, and I like her upside much more in this weight class. I expect she can pull off the upset as she mostly keeps this fight standing. Jessica Andrade by Decision

Michal Oleksiejczuk -250 vs Gerald Meershaert +200

  • Anthony: The next bout comes at middleweight between Michal Oleksiejczuk and Gerald Meershaert. This should be a thrilling matchup between two fighters with contrasting styles. Both are potent finishing threats and I expect the scrap tonight will certainly end inside of the distance. Meershaert has 29 professional wins by submission. Oleksiejczuk has been plagued with poor grappling defense in the past and Meershaert could certainly score another victory by submission if he is not careful. At this stage of his career Meershaert really struggles to keep up with opponents on the feet. He is slow with poor striking defense and a chin that is often in position to be hit. Meershaert needs to fight his way into the clinch against Michal to initiate grappling exchanges here early. Oleksiejczuk is a technically gifted southpaw with big power in his hands at 185 pounds. He should have no problem touching up Meershaert and landing meaningful strikes here early in round one. While I consider Meershaert a very live underdog I do not think I will pick him in this bout today. Oleksiejczuk has continued training with the team of Fighting Nerds and I expect him to follow a strict gameplan here on his way to victory. He should know he cannot mess around with Meershaert for very long on the mat. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round One KO
  • Nick: Michael Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but he’s always dangerous early. His striking is far from refined technically, but he carries a lot of power and works well when he’s countering. In spite of his skills on the feet, his defensive grappling ability is mediocre at best. In this particular matchup, there’s a good chance that part of his game is tested once again. Gerald Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ black belt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired and his wrestling ability is questionable at best. The line feels wide here as Meerschaert is almost always live as an underdog. If he can get this fight to the mat, he’s the better grappler by a ridiculous margin. That being said, I expect Oleksiejczuk can overwhelm him early. He’s going to have a major power and speed advantage here on the feet. Michal Oleksiejczuk by Round One KO

Baysangur Susurkaev -900 vs Eric Nolan +600

  • Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at middleweight between Eric Nolan and Baysangur Susurkaev. Tuesday night was the start of Dana White’s Contender Series this season and nobody had a better performance than Susurkaev who won by body kick. He was awarded a UFC contract for that performance and utilized his post-fight interview to say he was prepared to get started right away. Now just four days later he is meeting Nolan here for their debut. Susurkaev is an undefeated Chechen fighter and teammate of headliner Khamzat Chimaev. Not only does he possess great grappling skills but Susurkaev has showcased elite talent on the feet. He has 79-inch reach and great footwork, flowing in the pocket and ripping into opponents with very powerful strikes. His kicks were on display Tuesday and I think once again here he will use them against a smaller opponent. Nolan is a potent striker as well but we have not seen him face truly elite competition. I am not sure how he will approach closing the distance here against such a dangerous and rangy opponent. Susurkaev should be favored to win via knockout in what is very much a fight set-up for his success. It is a great story for Susurkaev who might be a champion down the road. Chimaev currently holds the modern record for shortest time between UFC fights after just ten-days between his debut and second victory. Baysangur Susurkaev by Round One KO
  • Nick: Baysangur Susurkaev will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Murtaza Talha in a fight that took place earlier in the week. Susurkaev is one of the more exciting prospects to break into the promotion over the past few years. He is 9-0 professionally and one of the main training partners of card headliner Khamzat Chimaev. Susurkaev is an extremely gifted striker with a style reminiscent of all-time great, Anderson Silva. He fights loosely, but aggressively. He has excellent footwork. He does a good job baiting his opponents into powerful shots and he has true KO power in all of his limbs. While he’s certainly most gifted on the feet, he’s also a solid wrestler with dangerous offensive grappling ability and above average takedown defense. Eric Nolan is also taking this fight on short notice as the most recent CFFC Welterweight Champion. Nolan is 8-3 professionally, with each of his last three wins coming via KO. Nolan is relatively well rounded, but his KO power on the feet is what makes him stand out when you watch him on film. He’s a tough and gritty fighter as a former marine, but he’s moving up a weight class for this fight and this match-up represents a dramatic step up in competition for him here. While Nolan may have a future at 170 lbs, he’s majorly outmatched here against Susurkaev. The UFC has put their marketing machine behind Sursukaev heading into this matchup and I expect he dominates as he secures an early finish. Baysangur Susurkaev by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Kai Asakura -350 vs Tim Elliott +270

  • Anthony: The main card begins with this fight at flyweight between Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura. It was a tough promotional debut for Asakura taking on the champion Alexandre Pantoja this past winter. Asakura had no answers for Pantoja’s dominant grappling and lost that fight via submission. I am expecting an improved performance out of the Japanese star here in his second bout. He only fought in a ring prior to his first octagon appearance in the UFC. Asakura should have more opportunities to strike and put his technical skills on full display. He does well landing strikes in the pocket and timing knees against opponents that want to wrestle. Elliott could certainly try to implement his grappling here to make this matchup more competitive. I do not think Elliott will fair well on the feet facing such a quick and dangerous opponent. Elliott is now 38 years old and nearly two years removed from his last appearance. Normally at this low weight class fighters do not find much success as they near the age of 40. Asakura will likely hurt Elliott throughout this fight as he lands the better striking combinations. Kai Asakura by Decision
  • Nick: Asakura is 21-5 professionally, with most of his success coming for a respectable Japanese promotion in RIZIN. Asakura has primarily fought at bantamweight, but he debuted in the UFC at flyweight his last time out as he was KO’d against the long-reigning UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja. Asakura is primarily a striker with thirteen of his twenty-one professional wins coming via KO. He’s aggressive early in most of his fights, and he pushes a serious pace on his opponents. He does his best work moving forward, but his hyper aggressive style does also mean he can be hittable in lengthy exchanges. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown defense seems to be more of a weakness than a strength, and he has struggled at times to work back to his feet if he is taken down by a wrestler. Tim Elliot is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. He starts fights like he is shot out of a cannon, but he can be susceptible to making mistakes at times via his overaggressive nature. He’s an effective grappler with a solid wrestling base. He’s excellent in scrambles and while his striking is far from conventional he’s effective as his awkward style makes him difficult for his opponents to read. Elliott will have a grappling advantage here, but I expect he’ll struggle to keep Asakura grounded as the much older and weaker fighter in this matchup. This would be a close fight in Elliott’s prime, but it seems he’s far past it. I expect Asakura to finish Elliott and potentially send him into retirement. Kai Asakura by Round Two KO

Michael Venom Page -190 vs Jared Cannonier +155

  • Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Jared Cannonier and Michael Venom Page. Cannonier is now 4-7 as a betting underdog in the UFC after beating Gregory Rodrigues in his last appearance. Cannonier was +190 in that matchup. The 41 year old continues to appear on fight night in great shape and ready to compete. He is consistent, defending when he needs to and pouring on the pressure as fights unfold. Cannonier certainly has the power advantage here at middleweight and facing MVP. This is the second fight for Page at 185 pounds but he does have a good frame for the division. His size will play a factor against some of the division’s better wrestlers but otherwise I expect him to realize continued success. He has the advantage fighting opponents at distance and attacking with his great kickboxing from range. Page will have the speed advantage against Cannonier and plenty of space to work. Even if Cannonier pursues takedowns I am not sure he will be able to corral Page. Cannonier has grown accustomed to fighting at The Apex and will need to adjust to a bigger octagon. He has also mostly been fighting five round main events. Page can probably do enough to win two rounds here against the better overall athlete. I think he will have big moments striking against Cannonier who has been getting easier to hit. I do not want to bet on Page due to the low-volume style that he has. He should be able to win here against Cannonier but it may be a task to sway the judges if the bout’s pace is slow. Michael Venom Page by Decision
  • Nick: Page has spent most of his career fighting for Bellator, against a relatively quality level of opponent. Page is a gifted striker who fights out of a wide karate style stance. He throws a lot of feints to set up his power shots. He has power in all of his limbs, fights well behind his length/reach, and he generally does an excellent job countering and fighting off his back foot when he needs to. Twelve of Page’s professional wins have come via KO. He has excellent durability and he’s difficult to takedown, but he has had issues against wrestlers in the past. Page is coming off a solid win at middleweight over Shara Magomedov, but he has stated he’d prefer to be fighting at 170 lbs. Jared Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185. If he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep immediately. He has a decent wrestling base, solid takedown defense, and even as he’s aging he has shown to have solid cardio and durability. Cannonier is getting up there in age and he recently underwent surgery to repair his knee/ACL. It seems his durability and speed are starting to wane, which likely spells trouble for him here against such a gifted striker in Page. Cannonier is live for the upset if he can get his grappling going, but that seems like a tall task against an opponent with such superior footwork and distance management. Michael Venom Page by Decision

Carlos Prates -250 vs Geoff Neal +200

  • Anthony: The featured bout comes at welterweight between Geoff Neal and Carlos Prates. The matchup between these two strikers could produce Fight of the Night. Prates was a monster in 2024 winning all four fights via knockout. It is very rare that a fighter gets Performance of the Night in four straight bouts. That success earned Prates a spot headlining against Ian Garry which resulted in his one recent loss back in April. Prates rallied late in that fight, but Garry was able to win most rounds thanks to his distance management and strong grappling. I expect to see Prates in a more comfortable spot here, pacing for just three rounds against a pure striker. Neal is a boxer that will gladly oblige Prates competing on the feet. Neal will be unloading tight combos from the southpaw stance while Prates is constantly moving and picking away at range. Prates does very well switching stances often and setting up powerful hooks as he hunts for the finish. He is two-inches taller than Neal with a three-inch edge in reach. I think he can hurt Neal here to the body and utilize muay thai attacks in close range. Normally Neal smacks up opponents inside of the pocket but Prates is just as dangerous there. He has the speed advantage against Neal and although I think he could get outstruck, Prates will be the fighter landing damage and scoring knockdowns. I am confident that he will bounce back with a win here today. Carlos Prates by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Carlos Prates is 31-years old with a 21-7 professional record. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to Ian Garry, his first loss since 2019. He starts slow in most of his fights, but he’s extremely accurate and generally does a good job landing for timely KOs. Prates fights very loosely in his approach. He throws a lot of kicks, and his long frame can make it difficult for opponents to take him down. His striking defense seems solid, but he does move straight back at times which can leave him open to be damaged in exchanges. When he’s at his best he works well behind his jab. He fights at a torrid pace and his cardio and durability both seem quality as well.Geoff Neal fights out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA. He is a powerful striker who is extremely advanced in terms of his technical ability. The one major knock on him is that he’s tentative at times. He doesn’t always put out consistent volume so he sometimes ends up falling behind in his fights if he can’t find an early finish. He’s one of the better offensive strikers in the division, especially at close range. Defensively he has solid technical awareness, but he can look rigid at times and it does seem he’s slowing down a bit as his career wears on. Prates will need to be aggressive here, but as long as he is I expect he can win this at range as he has the more diverse arsenal of attacks on the feet. Carlos Prates by Decision

Aaron Pico -180 vs Lerone Murphy +145

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at featherweight between Aaron Pico and Lerone Murphy. Pico is going to test himself right away against elite contenders in this division after years of success in Bellator and PFL. He was originally scheduled to debut on this card versus Movsar Evloev but now draws into Murphy instead. This is another very skilled opponent but not quite the tough stylistic test that Evloev would have been. Pico is favored against Murphy with advantages both on the feet and on the mat. He could implement his wrestling in this matchup to take rounds rather convincingly. On the feet Pico has exceptional boxing, stepping in and landing big hooks and combinations. His best shot is the left hook to the body. His highlights show a lot of one-punch KOs but not against very high-level competition. I am not ready to trust Pico competing in the promotion as a betting favorite. Bellator has had some high-level fighters but they always tend to struggle making their debut in the UFC. Murphy is a very well-rounded athlete that has been building toward a shot at the title. He has not lost through nine appearances in the promotion and I think he will find a way to win again here against Pico. He is a consistent performer with experience winning several main events. Murphy is durable enough to avoid a knockout and take this fight from Pico in rounds two and three. Lerone Murphy by Decision
  • Nick: Aaron Pico will be making his UFC debut here, with a 13-4 professional record at 28 years old. Pico has spent the entirety of his professional career fighting for Bellator. A former Junior Golden Gloves Champion, Pico is an effective striker. He throws an extremely powerful left hook and he does a good job working bodyshots into his combinations. While he’s certainly dangerous on the feet, he is best known for his advanced wrestling ability as he nearly qualified for the 2016 Olympics. Pico is a gifted athlete and he’s strong for the division, but there’s no denying the fact he’s making a major step up in level of competition here in his UFC debut. Lerone Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with a 16-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last seven fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Murphy will have the experience advantage here, but Pico’s wrestling advantage makes him a rightful favorite here. This is a low confidence play, but I expect the debutant can lean on his grappling on his way to a narrow decision. Aaron Pico by Decision

Khamzat Chimaev -250 vs Dricus Du Plessis +200

  • Anthony: The main event decides our middleweight championship with Dricus Du Plessis defending against Khamzat Chimaev. Champions tend to perform well as betting underdogs and again Du Plessis is getting disrespected here by the betting public. He enters on an eleven fight winning streak including three straight victories in title bouts. He has proven himself against elite competition and always seems to just find a way to win, weathering the early storm from opponents and continuing to chip away in rounds three, four and five. Chimaev has proven to be most dangerous early and so Du Plessis will need to prioritize defense at the start of this fight. Chimaev always shoots in the first minute and has taken down every opponent so far. He utilizes a very low single-leg shot to initiate exchanges before transitioning to a body lock from the back. Nobody can explode from one position to another as quickly and efficiently as Khamzat. He has shown his grappling is on another level with great top pressure and control from top position. This could be Chimaev’s first five round fight which raises concerns about his pacing and late round cardio. If Du Plessis can make it through the first ten minutes this matchup becomes much easier for him to win. Du Plessis has great size and a good grappling skillset, but we have not yet seen him tested against an elite wrestler. Chimaev seemed like a future champion by the end of his rookie campaign in 2020. This main event seems like it has been years in the making and now Chimaev finally gets the chance to become division champion. He will likely smash his way to victory early and get that key takedown in round number one. Chimaev will finish Du Plessis by submission or via ground and pound. And New. Khamzat Chimaev by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Khamzat Chimaev is one of the more talented fighters that the UFC has ever seen. He’s an extremely talented grappler, known to lift his opponents fully in the air, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he throws devastating ground-and-pound while boasting an advanced arsenal of submissions. He’s an underrated striker with true KO power and even before he broke into the UFC he had been touted by many as a future champion. Having bounced between welterweight and middleweight for most of his career, it seems he’s finally moving up to middleweight for good. The one real knock on Chimaev is that his cardio seems like it could be a weakness if this fight is extended into the later rounds, but it seems like he’s had an excellent camp coming into this matchup. The UFC Middleweight Champion, Dricus Du Plessis, throws a lot of volume on the feet. He has a lot of power in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with eleven professional wins coming via submission. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. He’s extremely awkward in his approach and he does make mistakes defensively, but his ability to win fights regardless has led to an impressive run as a champion. He’s a powerful athlete with ridiculous strength for a middleweight. What he lacks in finesse, he more than makes up for with brute strength, toughness, and an extraordinary desire to win at any cost. Du Plessis becomes increasingly dangerous as this fight wears on, but Chimaev is the better technical fighter in this matchup as long as his cardio holds. I expect he’s going to dominate on the mat early here, and more likely than not he should find a way to put Du Plessis away. And New. Khamzat Chimaev by Round One Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC