The Denver Broncos announced Tuesday that they had come to terms with free agent running back J.K. Dobbins on a 1 year, $2.75M contract. With incentives, the deal could be worth as much as $5M.
Dobbins rushed for 905 yards on the ground, and hauled in 32 catches for 153 yards through the air in just 13 games (11 starts) in 2024. His 9 rushing TDs were good for 11th across the league, which helped make him a finalist for the comeback player of the year award last season.
All in all, it was an encouraging sign for Dobbins’ fantasy owners who showed faith in the ultra-athletic, though oft injured, running back out of Ohio State. Dobbins has earned a bit of a reputation as a “glass cannon” of sorts in the fantasy community. Highly productive when healthy, but seemingly always on the wrong side of lengthy stays on the injured reserve.
There was the torn ACL in the final preseason game vs. Washington in 2021. A week 6 knee injury which caused him to miss a month and half in 2022. And then of course the torn Achilles tendon in Week 1 of 2023 vs. Houston.
Even his productive stint on the west coast wasn’t without absences, as the 26 year old suffered a Week 12 MCL sprain which caused him to miss action between November 30th and December 27th. All of that to say, one can understand why teams were hesitant to sign Dobbins this offseason despite his on field results.
His signing in the Mile High City makes sense from a real life standpoint (Denver acquires a low risk, high reward asset that adds depth to their backfield without needing to commit any term to the player), but makes things messy for fantasy owners. No one likes the running back by committee approach, but that seems to be what’s shaping up in the Broncos RB room heading into training camp.
Denver returns all five of their starting offensive linemen from 2024, making it one of the more experienced lines in the NFL in terms of playing together. If you want to pick nits, you can point to centre as a position that could be upgraded, but overall this figures to be one of the top OL units across the NFL this season if they can stay healthy.
Right guard Quinn Meinerz is amongst the best at his position across the league, so there’s reason to believe that Denver’s subpar 2024 rushing success rate (41.2%) stands to improve with more talent in the backfield this season.
Broncos fans have seen what Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime bring to the table at this point. Estime’s large frame may get him some short yardage work this season, but he could ultimately end up being the odd man out heading into Week 1.
McLaughlin figures to be a depth piece, who may see some work on passing downs now that Javonte Williams is with the Dallas Cowboys. Unless you’re playing in the deepest of deep bench leagues, you’ll probably be comfortable leaving him on the waiver wire until any injuries begin to pop up.
Which leaves the newly acquired Dobbins and second round rookie RJ Harvey to fight for the RB1 role. Harvey was a workhorse for UCF over the last few years, increasing his carries, yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards in each of the last 3 seasons. The 24 year old finished up his collegiate career with 232 carries for 1,577 yards (6.8 YPC) and 22 TDs on the ground.
Those are usually numbers to get excited about in terms of a rookie who could make an immediate fantasy impact. However, Dobbins’ signing takes much of the wind out of those sails, as he figures to eat into the total carries in the backfield in a significant way.
Could this become another Alvin Kamara meets Mark Ingram situation in Denver under Sean Payton? Perhaps. But that’s taking a wildly optimistic approach to things. We’ll gain additional clarity on things as training camps and preseason games begin to wrap up, but for now it’s safe to avoid the Denver backfield until the RB20 onwards range at this point.
If you’re a gambling type, Dobbins likely has the better odds to start as the team’s RB1 and see the lion’s share of the carries. But if you’re selecting Dobbins, you’d best be prepared to quickly secure his handcuff in Harvey, as history has shown that the former Raven probably won’t be on the field for 17 games.
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.