UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs Dolidze II Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs Dolidze II – 3.15.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs Dolidze II. We are back at The Apex in Las Vegas here for the live event this evening. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 60-33-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 59-34-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-14-2024 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Carli Judice -300 vs Yuneisy Duben +240

Anthony: The card opens with women’s flyweights Carli Judice and Yuneisy Duben. This is a very low-level matchup and not a fight I am attacking with any confidence. Duben is making her debut here after a sensational knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series. She has won by quick finish in all of her professional fights although Duben is facing very poor competition. Her skill set seems to be slowly developing but at this stage of their careers, Judice is much further along. We have seen Judice put forth the more consistent offense in her performances. I expect her to have the edge here against Duben with higher volume striking and more diverse techniques. Duben is a bit too reliant on her overhand and powerful kicks to get the job done. Judice can probably weather an early storm here to take this victory in rounds two and three. She has proven to be the much tougher of these two given the opponents they have each been facing. I cannot blame anyone for taking a chance and betting Duben here, because I myself am very tempted to do the same. The odds really seem too wide for such a volatile matchup. Carli Judice by Decision
Nick: Yuneisy Duben will be making her UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win on Contender Series over Shannon Clark. Duben is 28 years old and 6-0 professionally. Primarily a striker, five of her six professional wins have come via KO. As impressive as this is, Duben’s only win over an opponent with a winning record came her last time out against Clark. Prior to that fight, all of her fights took place against opponents in their professional debuts. Carli Judice is 3-2 professionally, and she comes into this fight off of back-to-back losses. She most recently fell in a narrow decision to a relatively tough out in Gabriella Fernandes. Judice is primarily a striker, and she’s surprisingly sound technically with someone with her limited level of experience. She has a good understanding of footwork and she throws out a lot of volume in exchanges. The line does feel wide here as Duben appears to be in much better shape than the last time we saw her. That being said, I do see Judice as the rightful favorite. She’s the much better striker here and we’ve seen her find success against a much higher level of competition. Carli Judice by Round Three KO

Josiane Nunes -185 vs Priscila Cachoeira +150

Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s bantamweight between Priscila Cachoeria and Josiane Nunes. This is a bit of a mirror match with both of these athletes looking to exchange heavy leather. It is a serious contender for Fight of the Night. These are two brawlers, relying on brute strength and overhand punches to get the job done for them. Nunes is really a younger and quicker version of Cachoeira. Her length also gives her a decisive advantage here as she throws her attacks from distance and while in pursuit. Her 67-inch reach allows her to connect more often from range than Cachoeira. Both women also have negative striking differentials, absorbing more shots than what they connect with. It will certainly be a slugfest here until one of these two is hurt by a wayward strike. Nunes appears the slightly more durable fighter with Cachoeira having been finished in both previous appearances. Nunes has the slight advantage in terms of her chin but also when it comes to conserving her cardio. Cachoeira can rarely survive through a full three rounds of intense action. Josiane Nunes by Round Three KO
Nick: Josiane Nunes is 3-2 under the UFC banner, most recently falling via decision to a bigger opponent in Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Nunes is small for the division, but very tough and powerful with surprisingly advanced boxing ability. She throws her overhand right constantly, but her toughness and willingness to eat punches allows her to land it enough to put away lower level competition. Priscila Cachoeira is very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute and her aggressive style also presents opportunities for her opponents to find takedowns. This is an extremely low level match-up between dangerous but volatile fighters. I’ll take a small shot on the underdog as I expect she’ll set the pace in this one. Nunes has a power advantage here, but Cachoeira should be able to pull away on volume. Priscila Cachoeira by Decision

Andre Lima -440 vs Daniel Barez +350

Anthony: Here is a men’s flyweight fight between Andre Lima and Daniel Barez. Lima is undefeated as a professional, entering this bout at 10-0. I am a fan of his steady kickboxing and measured approach in the cage. Lima seems like the more reliable athlete while Barez will be more reckless here earlier. While he will not be afraid to engage early on with Lima, Barez does need to be careful not to overextend himself in round number one. Lima should be able to maintain distance early and keep control of his range during this fight. He tends to fight very poised and against a man ten years older, Lima will have a decisive speed advantage. Barez could look to score an early takedown here but I trust Lima’s ability to scramble and fight back to his feet. He has great hips and elite footwork. I think it is safe to predict Lima is keeping his undefeated record intact here. He checks all of the boxes when it comes to an elite martial artist. I do not think Lima will be tested much until he runs into a serious wrestler at this weight. Andre Lima by Decision
Nick: Andre Lima enters this match-up at just 26-years old. He is 10-0 professionally, with five of his eight wins coming via KO. Lima is a dangerous offensive striker with surprising power for his frame. He does an excellent job mixing elbows into his combinations. He’s aggressive and throws a lot of volume in exchanges, and he’s shown he is more than willing to take shots to throw them. Lima does a good job checking kicks. He’s defensively sound for his age and generally remains calm in exchanges despite how aggressive he can be offensively. Daniel Barez is 17-6 professionally. He is relatively well rounded, with seven professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s quick in and out of breaks, he has a solid understanding of footwork, and his ability to mix in his grappling keeps his opponents guessing in striking exchanges. He has effective takedown entries both in open space and up against the cage, but he does seem to struggle at times in keeping his opponents grounded. The line feels wide here as Lima tends to fight down to the level of his opponent. Still, he should be the much better striker in this matchup. I expect he can keep this fight standing as he ultimately wins this fight on the feet. Andre Lima by Decision

Stephanie Luciano -210 vs Sam Hughes +170

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup between Stephanie Luciano and Sam Hughes. This is going to be an interesting test for the rising Luciano. Her only appearance thus far in the UFC came in a rematch against Talita Alencar. For Luciano, this is the first time she shares the cage with a truly experienced opponent. Sam Hughes has fought much tougher competition than Luciano and her veteran savvy could give her the slight edge. While I do expect Hughes to give Luciano a competitive fight, I find myself siding with the betting favorite in this one. Luciano is improving in terms of her striking with each performance. She should be quicker than Hughes here, allowing her to land the more frequent offense. Luciano also has the option of bringing this fight to the mat if she so desires. The Brazilian has excellent judo skills and solid offensive jiu jitsu. Given Hughes’ previous several fights I think she is susceptible to Luciano’s offensive takedowns. She has averaged just 60 percent takedown defense since joining the UFC. I do not think Hughes will do enough optically to steal this decision away from her opponent. Stephanie Luciano by Decision
Nick: Stephanie Luciano is 25-years old and 6-1-1 professionally. She’s a high volume striker who fights at a torrid pace and does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents. She’s coming off a solid decision win over a credentialed grappler in Talita Alencar. Her takedown defense seems to improve everytime we see her in the cage, which is a key to her success as her high volume striking style has led to most of her success. Sam Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and relatively durable. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any stand out skills. She is 8-6 professionally and while she has shown improvement in all facets of her game, it’s tough to expect she’ll ever climb the ranks of 115 lbs. Luciano is the younger fighter and the better athlete in this match-up, but I do expect Hughes can justify backing her as the underdog here. Hughes has made a career of stopping up-and-coming prospects, and Luciano seems a bit overrated at this current price. Hughes should be able to hang on the feet here and score takedowns if she needs to. Sam Hughes by Decision

Josias Musasa -800 vs Carlos Vera +550

Anthony: Next is a bantamweight fight between Carlos Vera and Josias Musasa. This seems like a favorable piece of matchmaking for Musasa as he faces an opponent who is eleven years older. Vera lost his one and only prior appearance in the promotion. He has very limited skills apart from his boxing and rudimentary grappling. With Musasa making his debut here a perfect 8-0, this seems like a case of matchmaking to build up a potential prospect. Musasa represents the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He is an exciting athlete at bantamweight, boasting great length and serious knockout power. Pairing Musasa with a rudimentary opponent like Vera will hopefully produce a great highlight KO for the rising fighter. He should be able to tag Vera with a lot of clean shots out of the southpaw stance. Vera will play the kicking game here too but I expect to see much more powerful strikes landing from Musasa in the blue corner. I am confident in picking him to win here today. Even if this is a lackluster performance from Musasa, I doubt Vera will score much offensively or connect with any huge shots. Josias Musasa by Round Two KO
Nick: Josias Musasa will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win by decision over Otari Tanzilovi. He is 8-0 professionally, with seven of those wins coming by way of knockout. At 26 years old, Musasa is still developing as a prospect. He’s a potent finisher at striking range, but his aggressive style could prove costly as he starts to take on competition with the ability to capitalize on the holes in his defense. Carlos Vera is 11-4 professionally, but he is already on the back half of his career at 37 years old. Vera broke into the promotion as a late notice replacement for Brady Hiestand against Rinya Nakamura. He lost in that match-up, but gave a decent showing of himself as he fought to a decision against a talented up-and-comer without a full training camp. Vera is a gifted grappler offensively and he’s likely to sell out for submissions here. That being said, that really is his only path to victory. I expect Musasa can mostly keep this fight standing until he eventually finds Vera’s chin. Josias Musasa by Round One KO

Su Young You -550 vs AJ Cunningham +400

Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between AJ Cunningham and Su Young You. Tonight the only bigger betting favorite than You is Josias Musasa who fights in the bout prior. You is a promising South Korean fighter with very well-rounded skills. He was impressive on Road to UFC and dominant in most of his appearances, blending his striking with elite wrestling. You’s best work is done when taking down opponents keeping them flat on the mat. He does well landing short shots when advancing between positions. You is continuing to improve constantly, training with a great team in Von Jiu Jitsu. I expect we see a lot more out of You as he gets to facing upper level competition. Cunningham does not necessarily seem like a great test at this juncture. We may have already seen Cunningham reach his ceiling and I do not think he will be in the promotion for many more fights. He does not seem strong enough to win this bout with his own wrestling. You should have no problem dictating exactly where this bout takes place. This is a rather soft piece of matchmaking here in his second UFC appearance. Su Young You by Round Two Submission
Nick: Su Young You captured the 2024 Road to UFC Tournament Championship at bantamweight, securing a win by decision over Baergeng Jieleyisi back in November of 2024. Su Young You is 29-years old and 14-3 professionally. Primarily a grappler, he generally looks to pressure his opponents with a chain wrestling style that allows him to control position for the majority of fifteen minutes. He’s not terrible on the feet, but he really doesn’t throw much volume. Five of his fourteen professional wins have come by submission. Cunningham is 11-4 professionally, but most of his wins have come against an extremely low level of opponent. He’s relatively well-rounded and tall for the division. While he can be dangerous offensively, his defensive instincts seem questionable at best. He’s aggressive, but he takes more damage than he should both at striking range and in grappling scrambles. He has been out of action since his UFC debut back in March of 2024, where he suffered a brutal TKO loss to the dangerous Ľudovít Klein in the first round. The line feels ridiculous here, but You is the rightful favorite. Cunningham’s durability seems questionable at best, and he’s moving down a weight class for this match-up. You doesn’t carry much power, but I do expect he’ll land the more damaging shots. Simply put, I’m not sure Cunninham is UFC level. That being said, it’s tough to trust either fighter in this matchup. Su Young You by Decision

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -190 vs Ryan Spann +155

Anthony: The prelims close at heavyweight with Ryan Spann taking on Waldo Cortes-Acosta. After a solid run in the light heavyweight division, Spann will now be testing himself against the biggest competition. His grappling could prove to be a valuable asset against the thin talent opposing him now at heavyweight. Cortes-Acosta is one of many matchups where Spann faces a striker. Salsa Boy will be trying to keep this fight at the boxing range where he is at his best. He can hide behind his jab here and likely outland Spann on the feet quite comfortably. However, Spann will press the issue and aggressively close distance against Cortes-Acosta in round one. Spann has power in his hands but technically he will struggle to keep pace striking with Cortes-Acosta. He will need to find a home for his shots to the body and lower legs. Spann has dominant grappling along the octagon side as well as numerous submission wins thanks to his great jiu jitsu. I expect him to score at least one early takedown here against Acosta who enters with just 60 percent takedown defense. Spann tends to fatigue as his fights go late but I am expecting to see him with improved cardio now sans any weight cut. He is a live underdog and a decent bet given his grappling advantage. I think he wins by challenging Acosta on the mat and finding a win via choke. The favorite has a much better chance of winning if this fight does go to the scorecards. Ryan Spann by Round One Submission
Nick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 12-1 professionally, coming off a solid decision win over a dangerous striker in Robelis Despaigne. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 5-1 in the UFC, on a three fight win-streak, and he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s athletic for a heavyweight, he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. Ryan Spann carries a lot of power on the feet and sneaky submission ability on the mat, but he’s been extremely inconsistent since he debuted with the UFC. His cardio has proven to be an issue in many of his recent fights, and his Fight IQ is questionable at best. After a volatile seven year run in the promotion at light heavyweight, Spann will be looking to find success up a division for the first time in this match-up. Spann is going to be dangerous early here, but I expect Cortes-Acosta can stay safe until he can weaponize his cardio. Spann’s gas tank and durability are questionable at best. I expect Cortes-Acosta can stay safe enough early here to pull away late. He’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Kevin Vallejos -550 vs Seung Woo Choi +400

Anthony: The main card begins at featherweight with Kevin Vallejos facing Seung Woo Choi. This is an interesting piece of matchmaking for Vallejos’ promotional debut. The Argentinian earned a contract for his performance last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. The 23-year-old has just one career loss coming against Jean Silva back in 2023. I think that his boxing is exceptional and he fights with great poise for someone with his limited experience. Seung Woo Choi is a ten-fight veteran in the UFC with rather lackluster performances coming lately. Choi has been stopped in the first round of both of his previous losses. While Choi always produces competitive striking matches, he tends to wear a lot of damage and rarely moves his head. Vallejos is going to be moving much faster than Choi here and finding a home for his punches. I expect Vallejos to really unload on his combinations once he can get ahead of Choi on the numbers early. It seems warranted that he is a very large betting favorite in a matchup he really should win. Kevin Vallejos by Round Two KO
Nick: Seung Woo Choi, a once highly regarded prospect out of South Korea, is coming off a brutal KO loss to Steve Garcia. He has lost four of his last five fights, but he’s still a talented athlete with respectable technical ability no matter where his fights take place. He has surprising power for his frame on the feet, and excellent footwork and head movement defensively. He can be tentative at times, but his athleticism and overall explosiveness is what stands out when you watch him on film. Choi recently shifted camps to Kill Cliff FC, but his career seems to be on a downturn. Kevin Vallejos will be making his UFC debut here, most recently securing a win on Contender Series with a first round KO of a tough out in Cam Teague. At just 23 years old, Vallejos is already one of the more highly regarded prospects in the world at featherweight. He’s 14-1, with his only professional loss coming by decision to one of the division’s fastest rising contenders in Jean Silva. Vallejos is well-rounded, but most of his success has come on the feet. He’s an explosive striker capable of putting out effective volume as he throws lengthy combinations. He has KO power, and he does a good job finding devastating body shots against almost anyone he squares up against. The price feels wide here, but it feels like the UFC is looking to build Vallejos as a prospect. I expect he will eventually find a KO, even if this fight is competitive early on. Kevin Vallejos by Round One KO

Diyar Nurgozhay -400 vs Brendson Ribeiro +300

Anthony: Next is a bout at light heavyweight between Diyar Nurgozhay and Brendson Ribeiro. Unfortunately, Nurgozhay weighed-in heavy yesterday for his UFC debut. The undefeated Kazakh is a rather intimidating presence with his size and aggressive striking style. He has good kickboxing fundamentals and footwork that keeps him in position to always attack. Nurgozhay will want to end this fight early the same way that Ribeiro would like to. Neither man has reliable cardio and both tend to fatigue as their bouts go late. Nurgozhay seems to be the more technically sound and more durable athlete of these two. I expect Ribeiro to get caught here by a big overhand or a head kick as he looks to exchange here. Nurgozhay has dynamic attacks and more finishing equity in this fight. Riberio has been stopped in five of his seven professional losses. He is reckless in round one, exerting a lot of energy and trying to land attacks from very far away. I’d slightly favor Ribeiro late in this matchup but I do not think he has the chin to survive for that long. Nurgozhay should be able to line up the knockout here early in round one. Diyar Nurgozhay by Round One KO
Nick: Diyar Nurgozhay will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win in the Contender Series over Bartosz Szewczyk back in October of 2024. He is 10-0 professionally and 27 years old. He’s well rounded, with six of his ten wins coming by KO and two by submission. He prefers to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s a powerful and athletic striker who does a good job crashing distance, even as one of the shorter fighters in the division. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. Fifteen of his sixteen professional wins have come via finish, with his only decision win coming his last time out where he outworked Caio Machado back in November in 2024. Nurgozhay missed weight for this fight, and he’s still mostly untested as a prospect. That being said, I do see him as the rightful favorite. Even in his wins, Ribeiro really hasn’t been impressive at this level. Diyar Nurgozhay by Round Two KO

Da’Mon Blackshear -440 vs Cody Gibson +350

Anthony: This will be a good matchup at bantamweight between Da’Mon Blackshear and Cody Gibson. Both men average more than two takedowns landed per fight. Blackshear is aggressive when it comes to pursuing takedowns and looking to wrap up opponents. Generally in this weight class it is difficult to keep fighters grounded for very long but Blackshear has found success before when it comes to his grappling. He is coming off a win via submission against Cody Stamann this past November. Not only can Blackshear burn clock well, he has a knack for ending his fights by submission. I believe that Gibson has the skills to roll with Blackshear and stay safe but I am not convinced that he will find a way to win this one. Gibson is much less urgent on the mat when it comes to escaping from guard play. I do not expect Gibson to convert as many of his own takedowns here in this matchup. He will likely be forced onto the defensive for a large portion of this fight. Nonetheless, please do not bet on Blackshear as such a sizable favorite. This is a volatile matchup and judge’s have cost Blackshear several close decisions before. Da’Mon Blackshear by Decision
Nick: Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s 3-3-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off an impressive submission win over Cody Stamann. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He’s dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and ten of his fifteen professional wins have come via submission. He does a decent job striking at range, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. Additionally, his durability has to be in some degree of question as he was brutally KO’d by Montel Jackson in July of 2024. Cody Gibson is 21-10 professionally, coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2021. He’s well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He’s getting up there in age, but he’s extremely durable with a very high fight IQ. Gibson does a good job pushing a pace and forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. He can be hittable in extended striking exchanges, but he has solid cardio and durability for someone his age. Gibson can be competitive on the feet here, but I expect Blackshear to lean on his grappling, especially coming off an ugly KO. While I don’t like the price, I do see the favorite working this fight to the mat until he ultimately finds a submission. Da’Mon Blackshear by Round Two Submission

Alexander Hernandez -220 vs Kurt Holobaugh +180

Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Kurt Holobaugh and Alexander Hernandez. We often see Hernandez start out with an early lead in his fights thanks to his powerful boxing and overall aggressive style. I no longer worry about Hernandez completely gassing in the late rounds now that he has made the move to 155 pounds. He is starting to mature more in terms of his game plan and execution of techniques. Holobaugh will be good competition for Hernandez on the feet. He throws with more consistent volume than Hernandez but less power on his single shots. Hernandez’ advantage is more prominent here on the mat where he can smother Holobaugh. We do not always see Hernandez reliant on his wrestling skills but this would be an excellent fight to shoot for a few takedowns. Holobaugh has historically been very easy to keep grounded once taken down. Hernandez could replicate what Trey Ogden did to Holobaugh here, and hold him down for the better part of these fifteen minutes. This fight would be more competitive on the feet although I do still favor Hernandez slightly. Holobaugh is a durable opponent and always a tough out, but I do not think he really has the skills to separate himself from Hernandez. Alexander Hernandez by Decision
Nick: There is no denying the fact that Alexander Hernandez has KO power on the feet. He’s also a decent defensive grappler, but his constant movement and aggressive style often leaves him tired and vulnerable in later rounds. His cardio has been improving since he moved his training camp to Colorado, but it still seems to be more of a weakness than a strength. He’s extremely gifted athletically, but wildly inconsistent. His hyper aggressive style almost always leads to him fading in later rounds. Kurt Holobaugh is primarily a striker. He has a solid chin and moves well at range, but he is most comfortable fighting in the pocket. He strings together effective combinations, he uses all of his limbs well, and seven of his twenty-one professional wins have come via KO. He’s also competent on the mat, especially offensively, with ten professional wins coming by submission. Hernandez is the much better athlete and he’s going to be dangerous early in this one. That being said, I expect Holobaugh can pull away as this fight wears on. He has the better cardio in this match-up, and I also think he’s live to secure a sneaky submission. Kurt Holobaugh by Round Three Submission

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -200 vs Chidi Njokuani +160

Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at welterweight between Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. This is a great clash between kickboxer and elite capoeira practitioner. Zaleski will be thrilled to face an opponent here ready to oblige him in a striking affair. The Brazilian is an elite technical striker but he also boasts sick finishing techniques with his kicks and spinning set-ups. Njokuani has more basic patterns of attack, but he hits considerably harder than Zaleski. It normally only takes a few clean shots from Njokuani to change the outcome of a bout. He throws his kicks with full power behind them to the body and lower legs. As of late Njokuani has also been fighting more efficiently, landing strikes with a much higher rate of accuracy than before. I think that this matchup will ultimately come down to which athlete connects first. These two share the same numbers as far as defensive statistics go but Zaleski is normally a bit more elusive and hard to connect with. I think it is fair that he is slightly favored against an opponent perhaps a step slower. Still, I will be betting on Njokuani here as a moderate underdog. I think he has as good a chance of finding the knockout as Zaleski dos Santos. Chidi Njokuani by Round Two KO
Nick: Zaleski dos Santos is one of the more creative strikers in this division. He does an excellent job throwing and landing wild spinning attacks. He’s a powerful puncher, and he does a good job mixing explosive kicks into his combinations. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but it’s highly unlikely it is tested here against another talented striker in Chidi Njokuani. Chidi Njokuani is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he has decent BJJ as well, but he is certainly most comfortable when his fights stay standing. He has turned in a mediocre 4-3 record so far during his UFC run. Njokuani can be dangerous on the feet here, but I expect Zaleski can match him in terms of technical ability. Additionally, Njokuani’s cardio and durability seem mediocre at best and Zaleski is also going to be the better grappler in this match-up. Simply put, I see the favorite as the better fighter no matter where this one goes. He’s found success against a higher level of opponent, and his well rounded game gives him plenty of paths to victory. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Decision

Marvin Vettori -165 vs Roman Dolidze +140

Anthony: The main event is a fight at middleweight between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. This is a rematch of a three-round bout that took place at UFC 286. That fight was a close decision that ultimately went the way of Marvin Vettori. Dolidze appeared to land the bigger strikes in that bout, specifically benefiting from a great sequence in round one. Dolidze also failed his single takedown attempt in that fight, allowing Vettori to take a commanding lead in punches landed. Vettori usually asserts himself over the course of five rounds simply outworking opponents and displaying cardio and durability that not many others possess. His last matchup was nearly one year ago, losing a Fight of the Night against Jared Cannonier. Vettori is always going to give you a consistent showing against this division’s top ten. Dolidze will need to engage more grappling with Vettori if he wants a better chance of winning tonight. Dolidze has elite jiu jitsu, it will just be difficult for him to find a good position against a solid wrestler. This rematch taking place over the course of five rounds should favor Vettori as he already got the nod in the first meeting. He is the favorite for good reason. I seriously doubt Vettori will do anything spectacular here to separate himself on the judge’s scorecards. He will spend this fight largely walking through Dolidze’s attacks and pumping out his own offense. I am not eager to bet money on him here as the favorite but I do think he is getting his hand raised. Marvin Vettori by Decision
Nick: This main event is a rematch between two middleweights that took place at UFC 286 back in March of 2023. Vettori was awarded the narrow decision in that instance, but the fight was so close there was certainly an argument to be made for either fighter on the scorecards. Marvin Vettori has been out of action since June of 2023, after suffering a brutal decision loss to Jared Cannonier in which he absorbed nearly 250 significant strikes over five rounds. Vettori nearly finished Cannonier early in that fight, but his cardio quickly faded as he overexerted himself for a finish against Cannonier that never really seemed to materialize. Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is also a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability. Roman Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was once the owner of his own small gym before the move, the camp shift has helped him to improve considerably in each fight of his most recent fights. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. As talented as he is, Dolidze is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the roster. He is a potent finisher and he’s dangerous everywhere, but his instincts and general fight IQ are certainly weaknesses for him more than they are strengths. I expect Dolidze to look good early here, but Vettori should be able to lean on his superior cardio and durability as this fight wears on. This is a low confidence play, but I’m backing the favorite. After weathering an early storm, he should manage to put a pace on Dolidze as this fight wears on. Marvin Vettori by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com