UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs Almabayev Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs Almabayev – 3.1.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Seattle: Cejudo vs Song. This event at The Apex is headlined by a possible title eliminator at men’s flyweight. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 47-26-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 45-28-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-28-2024 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Charles Johnson -130 vs Ramazan Temirov +110

Anthony: This bout is at men’s flyweight between Ramazan Temirov and Charles Johnson. Johnson fought and won four times in 2024. His victories have all come over very skilled competition. He is connecting on more than half of his attempted significant strikes and generally outworking opponents. Johnson’s takedown defense has improved and he even scored two of his own attempts in his last fight against Sumaderji. This should largely be a match contested at kickboxing range. Temirov is very powerful but his strikes are often telegraphed, and rarely thrown in combination. Johnson should do his best to stay at the edge of range here today. He has better speed and footwork allowing him to dance in and out of range. While Johnson is comfortable fighting out of both stances, a simple jab should keep Temirov out of his face. Temirov does seem capable of taking Johnson down but I do not think that will be his gameplan. With a decisive edge in strength and power, Temirov wants to have a gun fight. Johnson can likely fight the style he enjoys and extend this to the scorecards. He has been bet from the underdog to a slight favorite now on fight day. Charles Johnson by Decision
Nick: Temirov is 18-2 professionally and he comes into this match-up on a ten-fight win streak. At 28 years-old it seems he is entering his athletic prime, and each of his last five wins have come via KO. Temirov is relatively well-rounded, but most of his success comes on the feet. He has devastating power for a flyweight, and he generally does a good job striking together lengthy combinations once he closes distance. He was impressive his last time out in his UFC debut, a KO win over CJ Vergara. However, he has yet to face an opponent on the level of who he’ll be facing in this match-up. Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion, but he’s produced mixed results since he was promoted to the UFC. He’s a technically skilled boxer, but his defensive wrestling and grappling has proven to be a massive hole in his overall game. He is 6-4 in the UFC, entering this fight on a four fight win streak. He carries a lot of momentum into this match-up but at 34 years old. his window to climb the rankings at flyweight could be closing as he gets up there in age. Temirov will be dangerous early here, but Johnson should be able to stay safe and maintain distance as the better technical striker. I expect his experience advantage will shine through here over the course of three rounds. Charles Johnson by Decision

JJ Aldrich -200 vs Andrea Lee +160

Anthony: Here is a women’s flyweight matchup between Andrea Lee and JJ Aldrich. I find it difficult betting on Lee here at this stage of her career. She has not won a fight since 2021 with five straight losses via decision. At age 36, she is not fighting with the same strength or reaction time. I expect her to struggle when it comes to matching Aldrich’s physical strength here. She will not be able to score successful takedowns or weaponize her jiu jitsu here. Lee will need to rely on her higher striking volume to win in this matchup. Aldrich has the tighter overall boxing and better striking in close. She is the more sound defensive striker and better at winning moments in her fights. This matchup is favored to go to decision and Lee will struggle to win rounds. She is still giving her all late in fights but it has not been enough to get her the nod. I’ll bet this fight as a fade of Lee, as playing Aldrich up to -200 seems rather fair. JJ Aldrich by Decision
Nick: Andrea Lee is athletic with excellent cardio. She’s well-rounded offensively with dangerous kickboxing, a solid judo base and dangerous BJJ. As talented as she is, she’s coming off five straight losses for the first time in her career and she could be headed for retirement if she can’t record a win in this spot. Aldrich is 13-7 professionally, coming off consecutive wins over Veronica Hardy, Na Liang, and Montana De La Rosa. She’s big for the division, but it seems she could be a bit past her athletic prime. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she’s hittable in exchanges. She can be heavy on top when she manages to ground her opponents, but her entries for takedowns leave a lot to be desired. Aldrich is going to have a considerable size and strength advantage in this match-up, which should be enough for her to edge out a decision. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. JJ Aldrich by Decision

Danny Silva -250 vs Lucas Almeida +200

Anthony: Next is a bout at featherweight between Danny Silva and Lucas Almeida. We saw Almeida weigh-in heavy yesterday, coming in two pounds over the limit. He is very big for this division and at 34 years old it doesn’t surprise me to see him struggle with this cut. I do think that Silva can take advantage of Almeida here by setting a high pace early on. Almeida does well fighting at range and relying on fewer quality shots rather than an accumulation of damage. Silva will land more consistently with his boxing than Almeida. I think Silva will connect with much higher volume and overwhelm Almeida with his output. Silva can also exploit Almeida’s cardio by taking him to the ground in this matchup. The Brazilian has not showcased very good takedown defense since joining the UFC. He is often content to fight off of his back and search for lower probability submissions. Silva should have no problem clearing Almeida as long as he is not chin checked. He has never been finished before through ten professional fights. Danny Silva by Decision
Nick: Danny Silva is primarily a striker. He is 9-1 professionally, with five of those wins coming via KO. He’s a decent grappler, but it’s rare he leans on that part of his game. He’s coming off a solid win in his UFC debut, which came in a narrow decision over Josh Culibao. At 28-years old it seems he’s still making dramatic improvements from fight to fight, and he appears to be in excellent shape coming into this match-up. Lucas Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. He is 15-3 professionally and 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a solid decision win over Timmy Cuamba. Almeida is relatively well-rounded, with surprising power for his frame. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his cardio has been an issue at times so he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. This fight should be competitive for however long it lasts, but I expect Silva’s youth, durability, and athleticism to be the difference here. While I don’t love the price, I do see him as the rightful favorite. Danny Silva by Round Two KO

Chepe Mariscal -400 vs Ricardo Ramos +300

Anthony: This is a featherweight fight between Ricardo Ramos and Chepe Mariscal. It is a tough stylistic matchup for Ramos who enters as a sizable underdog. He is technically more skilled than Mariscal but physically he is up against it in this matchup. Mariscal has made his presence known lately, winning fights with his wrestling. He has a clear grappling advantage over Ramos who is defensively not great on the mat. Often we see Ramos opt for submission attempts off of his back rather than addressing his position. Mariscal is extremely durable and I do not think Ramos’ strikes will really phase him. He will move forward in this matchup and fight at whatever range he feels most comfortable. Ramos would rather keep Mariscal at the end of his punches where he can do better work. I think it will be tougher for Ramos to get through these three rounds than Mariscal. He is the rightful favorite considering his size and strength for a featherweight. Ramos will need to get lucky in order to win this one. Chepe Mariscal by Decision
Nick: Chepe Mariscal is 17-6 professionally, coming off of four consecutive wins under the UFC banner. He is well-rounded, but he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He has a solid chin and fights at an impressive pace, and his professional wins have almost exclusively come to UFC level opponents. He continues to improve at 32-years old and fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. Ricardo Ramos is a dynamic striker who throws a wide-range of attacks. He has underrated power, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents. As a result, we often see him fall behind on the scorecards even when he’s causing a lot of damage. He throws wild kicks, which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous countershots. He’s a decent grappler, but mostly prefers to stand and strike at range. The price feels ridiculous here, but these are two fighters whose respective careers seem to be headed in opposite directions. Ramos can be dangerous early, but his durability and will to fight through adversity seem to be waning. Chepe Mariscal by Round Three KO

Mario Pinto -550 vs Austen Lane +400

Anthony: The prelims close with heavyweights Mario Pinto and Austen Lane. This is the UFC debut for Pinto who earned a contract last fall on Dana White’s Contender Series. That fight saw him knockout the previously undefeated Lucas Camacho in the very first round. He is a dynamic striker with big power in his hands. He has been improving very quickly on his feet and he’s still just 26 years old. Lane will very likely want to try and wrestle here. Pinto has showcased good takedown defense against the cage but I am not sure he will keep Lane off of him in open space. The smaller octagon at The Apex should favor Pinto here as he looks to fight in close. Lane has a decent jab but in a boxing match I think he will struggle. His chin is not great with quite a few career losses via KO. Pinto should not be such a large betting favorite but I do favor him in this matchup. He can probably find a way to win this one even if Lane does score a takedown in round one. Six of Pinto’s nine wins have come by finish. Mario Pinto by Round One KO
Nick: Mario Pinto will be making his UFC debut in this fight, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over Lucas Camacho. He is 9-0 professionally, and extremely young for the division at just 26 years old. Primarily a striker, five of his professional wins have come via KO. He has decent cardio and he’s going to be athletic for the division, but his defensive grappling seems to be a work in progress. Austen Lane is athletic for the division as a former NFL defensive lineman. He throws powerful strikes, he has decent offensively grappling ability, but his skills are still rough around the edges as he’s starting his MMA career on the back half of his athletic prime. Lane will have a chance here if he can mix in some grappling and extend this fight into the later rounds. He’s coming off an impressive win over Robelis Despaigne in which he dominated on the mat as a +300 underdog. The price is wide here, but I do see Pinto as the rightful favorite. Lane’s only chance is to keep this fight on the mat, but Pinto has shown a decent ability to work his way back to his feet if he’s grounded. Mario Pinto by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Danny Barlow -300 vs Sam Patterson +240

Anthony: The main card opens at welterweight with a fight between Sam Patterson and Danny Barlow. This should be a great test for the undefeated Barlow, facing an opponent known for his potent finishing skills. Patterson has very quickly submitted both of his previous opponents. However, none of the competition Patterson has faced is all that talented. His one recent loss came against Yanal Ashmouz when a left hook ended the fight very early on. I think he is going to be in trouble here facing a technical southpaw like Barlow. My one concern regarding Barlow is his durability. He was victorious in his UFC debut after shattering his forearm in the first minutes of that fight. He fought three rounds against Nikolay Veretennikov last fall and looked more reserved coming off the injury. He could be susceptible to a finish against good grappling, especially if Patterson is able to take his back. I expect an improved version of Barlow here now that he is on weight and settled into a camp. He is the rightful favorite as he puts his perfect record on the line again here. I expect him to connect and find knockdowns in this matchup as he is normally able. Patterson does not have the chin to take many clean shots and I doubt Barlow allows him to close distance here without resistance. Danny Barlow by Round Two KO
Nick: Barlow is 9-0 professionally, with five of those wins coming via KO and one via submission. Five of Barlow’s last eight wins have come via first round KO. Barlow is one of the more highly regarded prospects in the division, but his stock took a hit his last time out as he barely held on to a decision win against a flawed opponent in Nikolay Veretennikov. The 29-year old striker generally does a good job using his 79” reach to frustrate opponents. He does a good job setting up his power shots and the power in his left hand is heavy. He has excellent footwork, and his speed and athleticism make him a difficult fighter to take and keep down. Sam Patterson is coming off a solid KO win over Kiefer Crosbie. He is 12-2-1 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and six via submission. Patterson has a long frame for the division, but his striking defense is generally terrible and his chin is there to be hit in exchanges. He’s decent everywhere offensively, he has an effective choke series, and he wisely looks to grapple aggressively in most of his match-ups. This is an extremely binary match-up in which Barlow will have the massive advantage striking and Patterson will have the advantage if the fight hits the mat. The price is wide, but I’m siding with Barlow as Patterson’s durability seems like it could hold him back at this level. Danny Barlow by Round Two KO

William Gomis -220 vs Hyder Amil +180

Anthony: Next is a great matchup at featherweight between Hyder Amil and William Gomis. Amil is undefeated at 10-0 while Gomis enters on his own 12-fight winning streak. Through four appearances in the UFC we have seen a very consistent product out of Gomis. He is skilled at using his range as a weapon when striking and mixing attacks low and to the body. Gomis is also comfortable when it comes to engaging his opponents on the mat. The southpaw will be faced with fighting Amil who attacks violently from both stances. Amil is reckless but effective with his striking. He is not very graceful when it comes to entering the pocket but Amil can unload ten-punch combinations in a blink. He is not afraid to make his fights scrappy and really push the issue against opponents. I think his aggressive style and confidence make him live for a finish win here. Gomis can normally dictate range well but in a real scrap I have not seen him match those high volume flurries. He may be shooting for takedowns here desperately if Amil can cause early chaos. The path to victory for Gomis is likely via a decision where Amil has a better chance to finish. I think +160 odds are generous so I will take my chance betting on the underdog. Hyder Amil by Round Two KO
Nick: Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges, and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. Gomis is on a twelve-fight win streak, coming off four straight wins under the UFC banner. He has shown excellent cardio and overall durability, and at 27-years old he continues to make improvements in all facets of his game. Hyder Amil is 10-0 professionally, but getting a late start to his career as a 34-year old featherweight. He has recorded knockout victories in each of his first two fights in the UFC, and prior to his debut with the promotion he had quality experience fighting in respectable competition for Bellator and LFA. Amil is primarily a striker and he uses his range well. He has decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge how effective his grappling will be against UFC level opponents as he has favored his striking in his last few fights. Amil is the more potent finisher here, but I do expect Gomis can win this fight by using his length to strike at a distance. William Gomis by Decision

Esteban Ribovics -250 vs Nasrat Haqparast +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup between Esteban Ribovics and Nasrat Haqparast. We should be in for a good striking battle here and perhaps a Fight of the Night. Ribovics earned that bonus at Noche UFC for a sick performance against Daniel Zellhuber. Both Ribovics and Haqparast landed more than 150 strikes in their most recent appearances. Ribovics is an excellent kickboxer with big power for a lightweight. He has great measured aggression, showcasing patience finding his shot in both previous showings. He faces a southpaw opponent here as was the case in his last three matchups. Haqparast is really a perfect opponent to go to war against. Ribovics averages 7.53 significant strikes per minute while Haqparast is just slightly lower, landing 6.15 on average. I consider Haqparast a bit more sound defensively but Ribovics has never been finished. I think he is going to land a few of the bigger strikes here in a very competitive matchup. He should have the advantage when it comes to landing his kicks and building an early lead against Haqparast. I won’t get to the window betting Ribovics given the style of fight I expect. Haqparast has been favored and won his last four in a row. Esteban Ribovics by Decision
Nick: Nasrat Haqparast is a technical striker who fights well at range. He lands more than 6 significant strikes per minute and he defends more than 62% of the strikes thrown against him. He was once regarded as a top prospect at 155, but it has taken him some time to build momentum in a crowded division. He comes into this match-up off of four impressive wins over quality competition, but stylistically he’s in a tough spot here against another talented up-and-comer. Esteban Ribovics is 14-1 professionally, with all but two of those wins coming via finish. He’s fairly well-rounded with surprising power for his frame. He has dangerous BJJ and a decent wrestling base, but it seems he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. He’s a rising prospect at 28 years old, coming off three solid wins over quality opponents. He most recently outperformed another highly regarded prospect in Daniel Zellhuber, and he’s been showing dramatic improvement in his skillset everytime we see him in the cage. This fight should play out closer than the line suggests, but I do prefer the Ribovics side. He’s the more aggressive fighter in this matchup, and his durability has been excellent to this point in his career. Esteban Ribovics by Decision

Julian Marquez -130 vs Cody Brundage +110

Anthony: The co-main event is a matchup at middleweight between Cody Brundage and Julian Marquz. Both fighters are very bad and I am disappointed to see this bout so high up the card. Marquez has lost by knockout in three consecutive appearances. He is reckless with poor defense and lackluster cardio. Marquez has power but no real skills apart from that on the feet. He is a good grappler in top position but a solid wrestler such as Brundage is unlikely to let him score takedowns. Marquez’s chin will once again get put to the test here and I am shocked to see him closing as the betting favorite. As mediocre as Brundage may be, he is still a serviceable fighter at the end of the day. Marquez has elapsed his fighting prime and now seems to resign himself to the loss. His most recent win came nearly four years ago against Sam Alvey. Brundage is better at fighting with composure and finding a way to get his hand raised. He will battle through any adversity here and likely find a knockout against the betting favorite. Cody Brundage by Round Two KO
Nick: Julian Marquez is a powerful striker with a decent grappling base, but he can sometimes be overaggressive and end up on the wrong side of exchanges. He usually starts somewhat slow, but he has decent cardio and he’s shown an ability to score takedowns against the majority of his opponents. He comes into this fight on a three-fight losing streak, and he’s likely to lose his roster spot if he can’t get back in the win column in this match-up. His durability seems to be declining rapidly, which is troublesome in a dangerous division at 185 lbs. Cody Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He can be dangerous on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and recently it seems his cardio has become a major weakness. He is 10-6 professionally, but he’s been wildly inconsistent since he made his UFC debut. This is a volatile match-up, but I slightly prefer Brundage as the more active fighter and the better wrestler. I wouldn’t recommend betting on anything here given the low level nature of this match-up, but Marquez seems like he could be on the verge of retirement. Cody Brundage by Round Two KO

Manel Kape -220 vs Asu Almabayev +10

Anthony: The main event is a bout at flyweight between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Almabayev is appearing here on short notice after Kape was originally booked to face Brandon Royval. Kape is a legitimate top five flyweight given his overall resume and skillset. This is the main event that can likely earn him a title shot next time out. Kape measures his striking entries well and does great work when boxing against his opponents. He is coming off a knockout win against Bruno Silva in December. The more often that Kape is appearing in the octagon, the better results we are seeing in the fight. Almabayev will clearly utilize his grappling here in an attempt to ground Kape. Through 11 rounds fought in the UFC, Almabayev has scored 18 total takedowns. He has good entries to his opponents legs but Kape is a dangerous man to shoot on. Kape has 77 percent takedown defense and great clinch attacks when he does stuff your shot. He is accurate when it comes to timing knees and hurting opponents who wrestle. Muhammad Mokaev only had a few good moments against Kape on the ground. Almabayev will be successful scoring a few takedowns tonight but Kape should respond and land the better offense. A camp in preparation for Brandon Royval should have him ready to react and scramble. I think he is a safe bet here as the moderate favorite. It seems unlikely that Almabayev can keep Kape down for the better part of a five round match. Manel Kape by Round Three KO
Nick: Manel Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork, which he uses well to set up his power shots. Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average for the division, but his KO power alone makes him a threat against anyone. He is 5-1 across his last six fights, and it seems there’s a chance he can secure a title shot with an impressive performance in this matchup. Asu Almabaev is coming off four consecutive wins under the UFC banner. As a flyweight, he regularly trains with top welterweight contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and impressive durability and cardio. He is 13-2 professionally, and widely considered a prospect to keep an eye on. This fight should play out closer than the line suggests, but I do find myself on the favorite here. Almabaev is the better grappler here, but Kape is the much better striker and his wrestling has come a long way since he made his promotional debut. Additionally, Kape has the better cardio by a decent margin. He may fall behind early, but I see Kape taking over as this fight hits the middle rounds. He should dominate the striking exchanges. Manel Kape by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com