UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg Full Card Analysis

UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs Erceg – 3.29.2025 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Mexico: Moreno vs Erceg. We are in for a great slate of fights this evening taking place live in Mexico City. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 73-46-1 (Last Year 321-191-0, 63%)
Nick: 71-48-1 (Last Year 316-196-0, 62%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-28-2024 at 8pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Marquel Mederos -165 vs Austin Hubbard +130

Anthony: The event begins at lightweight with Austin Hubbard facing Marquel Mederos. This is an interesting matchup and likely a grueling fight for both men. Mederos has really not yet been tested against someone with the skill and experience as Hubbard. Most of his victories before joining the promotion came against very low-level opponents. Mederos has solid boxing skills but he does not bring anything to this fight that Hubbard has not seen before. I do not expect him to hurt Hubbard at all on the feet despite the fact that he has the better technical striking. Hubbard has been known to take a shot and continue moving forward. I’d like to see Hubbard set an early pace here and make Mederos work. Both men train primarily in Colorado so I do not think either will be bothered by the high elevation today. I think they will prevent one another from scoring takedowns no matter how hard they try. Mederos may elect to shoot early, but Hubbard has solid takedown defense and better overall grappling. I think Hubbard could win minutes in this fight by holding Mederos against the cage. It is likely going to be a close decision and I slightly favor the betting underdog. Austin Hubbard by Decision
Nick: Austin Hubbard is big for the division. He’s mostly well-rounded, but offensively he doesn’t have any singular standout skill. He has excellent cardio, which isn’t really a surprise as he primarily trains in Colorado with Elevation Fight Team. He was cut from the promotion following a decision loss to Vinc Pichel in 2021, but he has since returned to the roster off a loss to Kurt Holobaugh via submission in finals of The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Tournament back at UFC 292. Since then, he is 1-1, most recently falling in a narrow decision loss to a tough out in Alexander Hernandez. Mederos is 9-1 professionally, coming into this fight on a seven-fight win streak. He’s fought a decent level of competition regionally, primarily fighting for Fury FC. Six of his nine professional wins have come via KO and he certainly prefers to fight on the feet at striking range. He’s coming off a solid win in his UFC debut, which came by decision over Landon Quiñones. He has excellent cardio, and at 28-years old it seems he’s entering his athletic prime. This fight should be competitive, but I expect Mederos’ speed and athleticism should shine through here. He’s the better technical striker in this match-up, and I expect he’ll land the more damaging shots here. MarQuel Mederos by Decision.

Jamall Emmers -480 vs Gabriel Miranda +360

Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Jamall Emmers and Gabriel Miranda. I cannot condone betting Emmers as he approaches -500 but this is a matchup where, on paper, he should certainly excel. Emmers is better than Miranda almost anywhere that this fight takes place. While the Brazilian is a talented submission artist with great jiu jitsu, Miranda does not have the wrestling to consistently take his fights to the mat. He often pulls guard in order to initiate grappling exchanges and against a skilled wrestler like Emmers that will be difficult to execute. Emmers can approach this fight rather conservatively to keep distance between himself and Miranda. He is the far superior striker with great hand speed and nice, straight boxing combinations. Emmers has a three-inch reach advantage as well, making this an uphill battle for the Brazilian. If Miranda is going to pull off this upset it will be because Emmers slips into a submission hold. He has faded in some fights before so that is an entirely realistic possibility. However, the most likely outcome in this fight is Emmers getting hands on Miranda and finding a win via knockout. Jamall Emmers by Round Two KO
Nick: Jamall Emmers is a rangy striker with surprising power for his frame. He’s dangerous on the feet, but he’s also a cerebral wrestler who has shown he can takedown a wide range of opponents. The one major knock on Emmers is his fight IQ. He almost always seems to be winning fights early until he makes questionable decisions and gives them away. He has been out of action since March of 2024, after suffering an ugly KO loss to Nate Landwehr in another fight that he seemed to be winning early. Gabriel Miranda has dangerous BJJ, solid cardio, and he’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. That being said, his durability is questionable at best. He is coming off an ugly KO loss to Morgan Charrière, and he is now 1-2 in the UFC. He is 17-7 professionally, with sixteen of his seventeen wins coming via submission. Emmers is a dangerous fighter to back as a favorite, but I expect he’ll get it done here. He’s the much better striker, and he has the strength required to keep this fight on the feet. Jamall Emmers by Round Two KO.

Rafa Garcia -480 vs Vinc Pichel +360

Anthony: This is a fight at lightweight between Vinc Pichel and Rafa Garcia. Pichel is now 42 years old and likely making his final promotional appearance. The veteran athlete has always shown up and put on great performances for the UFC. Pichel always fights hard for fifteen minutes and battles no matter the circumstances. I expect him to make this matchup competitive despite being much weaker than Garcia in numerous areas. For starters, Garcia is much faster than Pichel in terms of his movements and striking. Garcia has very good defensive metrics and a great feel for boxing in the pocket. Garcia has also averaged more than one takedown landed per round in the promotion. Pichel has defended just 25 percent of opponent takedowns throughout his career. He is strong, but Pichel has very poor grappling fundamentals. He is not very quick to fight back up once he has been taken down. Nonetheless I think Garcia has the edge against Pichel even if he does not wrestle. This is a generous piece of matchmaking for Garcia as he fights here in front of a home crowd. Regardless of how this matchup does play out, I think Garcia will do enough to earn the victory. Rafa Garcia by Decision
Nick: Rafa Garcia has decent offensive grappling ability but prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but his defense and overall decision making leave him vulnerable against even lower level opponents. His cardio has improved since he shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, but he does have a history of fading late in fights. Garcia is 4-4 in the UFC, and he’s been generally inconsistent. That being said, he is in a favorable match-up here against an aging vet in Vinc Pichel. Vinc Pichel is getting up there in age, but he only fights about once per year. This means he isn’t as damaged as most fighters would be at 42 years old. He has been out of action since May of 2024, following a hard-fought decision loss to a tough out in Ismael Bonfim. At his best, Pichel is a deceivingly powerful striker who can be explosive out of breaks. He has a creative approach as he is constantly moving in and out of his opponents’ range. He’s a competent grappler with underrated BJJ, but he certainly prefers to play out his fights at striking range. Garcia is going to have a speed advantage here, but he tends to fade as his fights wear on. Pichel is tough to back as he’s getting up there in age, but I see him as the value side here as Garcia really isn’t a KO threat on the feet. This will likely look ugly early, but I expect Pichel can pull away as this fight wears on. Vinc Pichel by Decision.

Lupita Godinez -260 vs Julia Polastri +200

Anthony: This is a women’s strawweight matchup between Lupita Godinez and Julia Polastri. I think Polastri is a solid athlete here down at 115 pounds but this stylistic matchup appears difficult for her to handle. She has struggled in the past when it comes to competing with better offensive grapplers. Jasmine Jasudavicius had no problem holding Polastri on the mat and that is her toughest opponent to date. Godinez will likely follow a similar game plan here looking to ground Polastri. Godinez is a very good wrestler, shooting a high number of takedown attempts. She does not always convert on her shots, but Godinez can be relentless when it comes to taking fights down to the ground. Polastri has done well grappling in her own career but this is the highest level wrestler she has faced. I do not think she will win this fight if Godinez is able to convert a few shots. On the feet, Polastri is the more precise and powerful striker but Godinez has the volume boxing to keep the score close. I am expecting her to win this fight by a unanimous decision. Lupita Godinez by Decision
Nick: Julia Polastri is 13-4 professionally, with four wins via KO and three via submission. She’s still rounding into form as she’s only 27-years old, but she’s relatively well rounded and it can be expected we see her make considerable improvements from fight to fight. She’s coming off an impressive win over Cory McKenna, a fight in which she showed improved striking and defensive grappling ability. Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged nearly 3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but she absorbs nearly as many strikes as she lands. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Godinez has a clear path to victory if she chooses to lean on her grappling. That being said, her Fight IQ has been questionable at best. This is a low confidence play, but Godinez has the clearer path to victory here and we’ve seen her tested against a higher level of opponent. I expect she can edge out a decision in front of her home crowd. Lupita Godinez by Decision.

Christian Rodriguez -165 vs Melquizael Costa +130

Anthony: This is a good matchup at featherweight between Melquizael Costa and Christian Rodriguez. Costa is coming off back to back wins by rear naked choke submission. He is a talented jiu jitsu practitioner, but to be honest I am still skeptical of what his true potential may be. He was fortunate to win his previous appearances after rather tough starts to both bouts. His takedowns are not very efficient with entries that are often a bit telegraphed. That is not good news as he faces an opponent in Rodriguez with 69 percent takedown defense. Opponents are always looking to takedown Ceerod rather than competing with him on the feet. Rodriguez averages 3.54 significant strikes landed per minute but he hits very hard for this weight class. His boxing is great and generally Rodriguez will get better and better as his fights go on. He should really be able to use cardio as a weapon here fighting Costa at elevation. I predict that Costa will shoot early and often in an attempt to ground Rodriguez tonight. Rodriguez should be able to keep this fight standing and really unload on Costa in rounds two and three. I expect him to defend an early submission attempt if he does get taken down in round one. Christian Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: Melquizael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he does leave a lot of openings to be countered. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He is 22-7 professionally, coming off an impressive submission win over Andre Fili. He’s making a quick turnaround here, as that win over Fili came just over one month ago. Christian Rodriguez is primarily a striker. He’s capable of utilizing a grappling heavy game plan in certain match-ups, but he seems most comfortable exchanging on the feet. He has decent BJJ both offensively and defensively, which was evident in each of his most recent wins over highly regarded prospects in Austin Bashi, Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian. He is 12-2 professionally and 5-2 in the UFC. At just 27-years old he’s certainly a prospect to keep an eye on. Costa is going to be dangerous if this fight hits the mat, and he’s also going to be the bigger fighter in this match-up. That being said, I do see Rodriguez as the rightful favorite. He’s the more durable fighter here with the better cardio. Christian Rodriguez by Decision.

Ateba Gautier -480 vs Jose Medina +360

Anthony: Next is a bout at middleweight between Jose Medina and Ateba Gautier. This is the debut for Gautier who earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. The 22-year-old is still a bit green but he appears to have an incredibly high ceiling. He is a thunderous power puncher with incredible athleticism. Medina is rather big for a middleweight but Gautier is even bigger. He is 6’4 with a massive 81 inch reach. Those long arms allow Gautier to connect with his power shots from both stances. While Medina is tough having never been knocked out, he has also not faced anyone with such power. He will be desperate to clinch Gautier early and survive into this bout’s latter half. I really think Medina is a mediocre fighter and not someone that belongs in the UFC. Gautier is a physical specimen, but spamming power shots is a dangerous proposition as he fights here at such high elevation. He could definitely fade if this fight does see the start of round number two, but I think his aggressive nature will ultimately lead to an early finish instead. Rather than betting Gautier on this pricey moneyline I will instead have money on his KO prop. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO
Nick: Ateba Gautier will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win over Tura Naito on the Contender Series. Gautier is just 22 years old, and 6-1 professionally. Primarily a striker, all but one of his professional wins has come by KO. As impressive as that may seem, his only win against an opponent with a winning record came in that last fight against Naito. Gautier is an explosive athlete with true KO power, but he’s still mostly untested against UFC-level competition. Jose Medina is one of the few fighters ever to be awarded a UFC contract off a Contender Series loss. He is 11-4 professionally, coming off a decision loss to Zachary Reese which came in his promotional debut. Medina’s greatest quality is certainly his chin. In many of his fights, we see him take massive damage and continue to push a pace in spite of it. The price here is absolutely ridiculous, as Gautier is still very raw as a prospect. That being said, Medina does not seem to be a UFC level fighter. He’s never been KO’d before, but he’s too hittable in exchanges and Gautier should present power that he’s never had to deal with before. Ateba Gautier by Round One KO.

Edgar Chairez -280 vs CJ Vergara +220

Anthony: The featured prelim is a matchup at flyweight between CJ Vergara and Edgar Chairez. I have not been very high on Chairez in his career thus far but he is going to continue to develop into a better fighter with each outing. I consider his style too measured, generally using rather basic boxing to match up with his opponents. He has great hand speed and offensive weapons, but apart from that Chairez is a bit one-dimensional. Nonetheless this fight with Vergara does not seem like one where Chairez is going to be challenged. Vergara does not have much power in his hands and generally we see him bested by opponents in striking matchups. He will likely oblige Chairez here on the feet where he is a step slower and less precise. Vergara could attempt to take Chairez down to the mat but his own grappling offense has not been very effective. Chairez also has a nasty guillotine choke that works as a great defense for opponent takedowns. Vergara is unlikely to get finished in this matchup so I suppose there is value on him getting the win via decision. However, Chairez is the better overall athlete and I expect him to do enough in order to sway the judges. I am not comfortable betting much on him as these odds continue to inflate. Edgar Chairez by Decision
Nick: Edgar Chairez is 11-6 professionally, a fighter who gained notoriety for a competitive loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice and gave a solid showing of himself against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. His two most recent wins have come via submission, but Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable, but he does take a considerable amount of damage in striking exchanges. CJ Vergara was once a highly regarded prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He is 3-4 so far under the UFC banner, coming off a brutal KO loss to a tough out in Ramazan Temirov. He’s decent everywhere, but he’s gotten by on exceptional durability and cardio more than any standout offensive skill. He has recently had trouble making weight, and it seems he could already be slowing down at just 33 years-old, as most of his fights have been drawn out wars. These are two volatile fighters, but I do see Chairez as the rightful favorite. He’s the better technical striker, he should be able to work well at range, and he’s capable of scoring a timely submission if this fight hits the mat. Edgar Chairez by Round Two Submission.

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Ronaldo Rodriguez -150 vs Kevin Borjas +125

Anthony: The main card begins with flyweights Kevin Borjas and Ronaldo Rodriguez. Borjas has yet to win a UFC fight through two attempts thus far. He was also scheduled to face Edgar Chairez last fall in a matchup that did not materialize. Now he faces Rodriguez who has won in both of his appearances. Lazy Boy is just 25 years old and developing into a very skilled athlete. He did miss weight by a pound on Friday but nonetheless I think his future seems bright. I like Rodriguez’ aggressive style when it comes to engaging opponents and forcing his fights to the mat. He is the much better grappler in this matchup compared to Borjas who would prefer to strike. Borjas does have the better boxing skills but I do not think he earns a knockout here. Rodriguez will walk through his early offense and score at least one takedown early on. Borjas has not shown much at all yet in terms of his takedown defense. I think that Rodriguez is rightfully favored as his grappling skills are more pronounced than Borjas striking ability. Rodriguez also has more power in his hands. It is imperative that he does build an early lead with tonight’s match taking place at elevation. This fight is going to swing into Borjas favor by the end of round two. Rodriguez will probably struggle to keep up with Borjas late, an issue likely made worse by the weight miss. It is a very close matchup. Ronaldo Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: Ronaldo Rodriguez is 17-2 professionally and only 25-years old. Seven of his wins have come via KO and five have come via submission. Rodriguez is decent everywhere, but most of his recent success has come on the mat. Rodriguez carries a lot of momentum into this match-up as he’s on a seven-fight win streak, most recently securing a win via decision over Ode Osbourne. Kevin Borjas is 9-3 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and one coming via decision. At 27-years-old he continues to show considerable improvements every time we see him fight. He’s primarily a striker, but he has solid takedown defense and generally does a good job working back to his feet if he’s taken down. Rodriguez is a highly regarded prospect so I can understand why he’s the favorite here. That being said, I see value in Borjas. He’s going to be the much better technical striker in this match-up, and I fully expect he can keep this fight standing. A risky pick, but I see value on the underdog. Kevin Borjas by Round Two KO.

David Martinez -480 vs Saimon Oliveira +360

Anthony: Next is a matchup at men’s bantamweight between David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira. This is the UFC debut for Martinez who earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He comes from a fighting family with his sister Melissa Martinez already competing in the promotion. He has trained striking and specifically karate from an extremely young age. It is evident that Martinez has a knack for timing his punches and kicks. He is very good at setting up knockouts with prolonged boxing combinations. Oliveira is not nearly as fluid when striking, or as defensively responsible. I think Martinez will perform well here as he starts to settle in. Oliveira is normally most dangerous in the early part of his bouts. He throws good leg kicks, but really Oliveira prefers it when his fights hit the mat. A large number of his victories thus far have come against mediocre competition. He is 0-2 thus far in the UFC and I think that Martínez will get his first win before he does. David Martinez by Round Two KO
Nick: David Martinez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a decision win over Xavier Franklin on the Contender Series. Martinez is 11-1 professionally, with nine of those wins coming by knockout. Martinez has taken on a solid level of regional opponents, as he has primarily fought for Combate Global. He has explosive power for a bantamweight, and his instincts as a striker are advanced for someone his age and level of experience. Saimon Oliveira is fairly well rounded, with decent power on the feet. He can be hittable in exchanges. However, he’s very young and athletic with a seemingly excellent chin and durability. He is a potent offensive grappler as eleven of his eighteen professional wins have come via submission. As skilled as he is offensively, he has struggled to find success at the UFC level and he has been out of action since January 2023. Martinez is still somewhat untested as a prospect, but Oliveira presents one of the more favorable match-ups in the division. I’m siding with the favorite to find a finish on the feet. David Martinez by Round Two KO.

Raul Rosas Jr -480 vs Vince Morales +360

Anthony: This is a fight at bantamweight between Raul Rosas and Vince Morales. The 20-year-old has already fought five times in the promotion, most recently beating Aoriqileng at Noche UFC. He is going to be a problem as he continues to develop and gain experience. It is tough to consider Morales a step-up in competition compared to opponents Rosas has previously faced. This seems like a matchup designed to get Rosas another win here in Mexico City. Morales is a tough, capable boxer but it is impossible to compare his skills to those of Rosas on the mat. His striking is solid but he will not get to throw his hands much against an opponent who is eager to close the distance. Rosas does well securing takedowns and forcing his opponents to defend positions. While Rosas himself is not a blackbelt, he has stopped numerous high-level grapplers before. Six of his professional wins have come by submission and I do not expect today’s bout to go any differently. Morales has defended just 60 percent of opponent takedowns since joining the UFC. He has been taken down in three of his previous four fights, and all of those bouts were losses. Rosas should be able to choke Morales out here within two rounds of action. I won’t bet him on the moneyline but instead I suggest taking his submission prop at much better odds. Raul Rosas Jr by Round Two Submission
Nick: Raul Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He is 10-1 professionally, coming off a solid win by decision over Aoriqileng. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as six of his ten professional wins have come via submission. His striking continues to improve, but he does leave gaps defensively. Additionally, most of the time he’s striking it’s a means to set up takedown entries to take his opponents to the mat. His wrestling ability is effective, but his hyper aggressive style can lead to him gassing out in fights if he can’t find an early finish. Vince Morales is relatively well rounded with seven wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He can be hittable in exchanges and his takedown defense is mostly mediocre, but he’s dangerous everywhere offensively and his durability allows him to find success in the later rounds in most of his fights. Morales is coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough out in Elijah Smith. He’ll be looking to bounce back here, as he’ll need to secure a win to avoid his third consecutive loss. The line feels a bit wide, but Rosas Jr. is clearly the side. Morales is relatively easy to take down, where Rosas Jr. should have his way. Raul Rosas Jr. by Round One Submission.

Joe Pyfer -300 vs Kelvin Gastelum +240

Anthony: The featured bout comes at middleweight with Joe Pyfer set to face Kelvin Gastelum. This matchup serves as a great test to see if Pyfer can really cut it at the highest level. His lone loss since joining the UFC came in his matchup against Jack Hermansson. Gastelum is a very skilled veteran that will give Pyfer a new look compared to what he has seen. Gastelum is a southpaw with exceptional boxing skills. Pyfer is the harder hitter of these two but I do not think he will test himself striking too much against Gastelum. While Pyfer holds the four-inch edge in reach, Gastelum fights deceptively long and times his counters perfectly. If Pyfer elects to just stand and trade shots here facing Kelvin, he is not going to look like the -300 favorite that he is. Gastelum is also known for his great chin and durability. I expect Pyfer to earn this victory by mixing in his grappling and showcasing his full arsenal of skills. Gastelum has just 59 percent takedown defense and poses little to no threat when his fights hit the mat. I think Pyfer will fight smart here and try to take Gastelum off of his feet. He needs to be careful how he approaches this matchup in enemy territory. Joe Pyfer by Decision
Nick: This should be a fun match-up as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing. Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t been all that impressive recently, but there is no denying he has shown flashes of greatness in the past. His war with Israel Adesanya is considered by many as one of the best title fights in the history of the sport. Gastelum has surprising hand speed, and impressive cardio and durability. Additionally, his boxing is undeniably at a tremendously high level. He’s coming off a decent win over a tough out in Daniel Rodriguez, but this match-up here against Pyfer presents him with a more difficult puzzle to solve. Joe Pyfer fights out of an excellent camp in Renzo Gracie Philadelphia and he seems to be a personality the UFC hopes to feature and build moving forward. Pyfer is well-rounded, but his power certainly seems to be his greatest attribute. He is 4-1 in the UFC, with a solid 13-3 professional record overall. Pyfer is going to be the much bigger fighter and the more potent striker in this match-up, but Gastelum has shown to be extremely durable. In spite of the line, I do see Gastelum as the better technical striker. Regardless, Pyfer is going to have a massive size and speed advantage. I also expect he can lean on his superior grappling ability if he starts to fall behind in striking exchanges. The price seems insane, but I do expect Pyfer can get it done. Joe Pyfer by Decision.

Manuel Torres -110 vs Drew Dober -110

Anthony: The co-main event comes at lightweight between Drew Dober and Manuel Torres. I am expecting this to be a great scrap with the potential of earning Fight of the Night. El Loco has really announced himself since joining the promotion. I think placement in the co-main event is deserved given his fan friendly style. All of Torres wins in the UFC have come by stoppage in the first round. He is a very fun fighter to watch, switching stances and aggressively trying to hurt his opponents with strikes. Torres has solid boxing but very good muay thai and close range kicks. While I expect Torres to fight well early in this one, Dober is the much more steady athlete and the preferred side for me if this bout gets into round two. Dober has always been known for his granite chin, but Torres is one lightweight that does have the power to win here early. Dober also lost by knockout in his last appearance. Torres has the size advantage over Dober and a three-inch edge in reach that will be evident when striking. I think he will come out firing here in front of what should be a full crowd giving him their support. Torres may collapse if this fight sees a second round but I am expecting him to get the knockout win very early. He will prevent Dober from closing distance or mixing in the grappling in order to slow him down. Manuel Torres by Round One KO
Nick: Manuel Torres is dangerous on the feet offensively, but tends to take a lot of damage in exchanges. He is coming off an ugly KO loss to a rising prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes, and prior to that he had strung together an impressive six-fight win streak. Torres can be dangerous against anyone, but there is no denying his kill-or-be-killed style makes him a volatile fighter to back with any confidence. Drew Dober throws extremely powerful and precise strikes, his timing is excellent offensively, and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. As dangerous as Dober is standing, his grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. Four of his eight UFC losses have come via submission. He has notable KO wins over Bobby Green, Rafael Alves, and Nasrat Haqparast, but he is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2021. Torres will be dangerous early here, but I expect Dober to weather an early storm until he can take this fight over as Torres starts to fade. He’s the better technical striker, with the better cardio and durability in this match-up. Drew Dober by Round Two KO.

Brandon Moreno -250 vs Steve Erceg +200

Anthony: The main event is a fight at flyweight between Steve Erceg and Brandon Moreno. It is obvious that Moreno should headline this event in Mexico City. The former champion has a huge fan-base and a style that embodies the Mexican fighting spirit. This matchup against Erceg is particularly interesting as it will likely be a fight contested largely at boxing range. Moreno has a slight edge in terms of his grappling if he would like to engage Erceg on the mat. It is imperative that Erceg perform better here coming off of consecutive losses. Through five fights in the promotion, he has not shown much in terms of special talent or ungodly power. Erceg’s boxing skills are brilliant but he will probably need to knock out Moreno in order to win this fight. It will be very tough for Erceg to crack what has been a granite chin. Moreno is much more experienced in this atmosphere and main event setting. He has no problem competing for a hard five rounds and I think Moreno will have a more steady offense than Erceg for these twenty five minutes. He throws great kicks and manages distance well for a smaller guy. While Erceg does have a pronounced reach advantage I do not think that will be a factor as this bout starts to go late. Moreno will be landing the more frequent offense here and scoring more favor with the judges. I think he is the rightful betting favorite and I am confident in picking him to get this win. Brandon Moreno by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent match-up between two of the best flyweights in the world. Moreno is one of the better offensive wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward and forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. He can be over aggressive at times and present openings to be countered, but he has a solid chin and excellent cardio. Steve Erceg is 12-3 professionally, with six of those wins coming via submission. Erceg comes into this fight off an ugly KO loss to Kai Kara-France, a fight that took place in August of 2024. Erceg’s striking continues to improve. He has underrated power and he’s technically sound everywhere. He has excellent cardio, and he’s capable of putting out a lot of volume on his feet. He certainly prefers to grapple, but he’s shown a well-rounded game against a quality level of competition. The line does feel wide here as this fight should be competitive from start to finish. That being said, I do expect Moreno to get his hand raised. These are two well rounded fighters, but Moreno is the more durable of the two. Erceg is taking this fight on relatively short notice coming off a brutal KO loss. Additionally, Moreno will have the support of his home crowd in this spot. Brandon Moreno by Decision.

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Photo: UFC.com