While we’re smack in the middle of the busiest week of fantasy drafts this week with the NFL season officially kicking off Thursday, we wanted to take a look at each of the first 10 rounds of fantasy ADP and pick our favourite players in each round who we think will outperform their draft position on the field in 2024.
Round 1
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey SF | RB1 |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill MIA | WR1 |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb DAL | WR2 |
| 4 | Breece Hall NYJ | RB2 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson ATL | RB3 |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson MIN | WR3 |
| 7 | Ja’Marr Chase CIN | WR4 |
| 8 | Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | WR5 |
| 9 | A.J. Brown PHI | WR6 |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor IND | RB4 |
| 11 | Saquon Barkley PHI | RB5 |
| 12 | Garrett Wilson NYJ | WR7 |
My favourite pick in the first round is Breece Hall. Hall is now two seasons removed from the ACL tear which is when we love to target running backs coming back from injury. Typically, running backs entering their second and third season also tend to increase their production dramatically.Â
Hall is set to be the workhorse back for a team that did a lot to improve their offensive line this offseason. Even if you don’t believe in a 40 year old Aaron Rodgers, he’s undoubtedly a massive improvement from the disasters at quarterback the Jets had last season.Â
The Jets finished with the fewest yards per play in 2023. They also only gave running backs ONE carry within the 5 yard line ALL OF LAST SEASON. Hall had his snap count limited from weeks one through 4 as he worked his way back from his ACL tear but averaged 20.0 fantasy points per game from weeks 5-18, second only to McCaffrey, who’s older and is already dealing with a calf injury. He led the league in yards per carry after contact and yards per route run last season despite the horrendous offensive line in front of him. This same coaching staff gave Hall 37 carries in a meaningless week 17 game last season. They believe in him and know that their team success will be tied to their incredible defence and the impact that Hall can make in the run game.Â
New York are currently favoured in 14 of their 17 games so the game script is also on his side as this offence won’t have to fully rely on the passing game to succeed.
Round 2
| 13 | Jahmyr Gibbs DET | RB6 |
| 14 | Puka Nacua LAR | WR8 |
| 15 | Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI | WR9 |
| 16 | Travis Etienne Jr. JAC | RB7 |
| 17 | Kyren Williams LAR | RB8 |
| 18 | Derrick Henry BAL | RB9 |
| 19 | Davante Adams LV | WR10 |
| 20 | De’Von Achane MIA | RB10 |
| 21 | Isiah Pacheco KC | RB11 |
| 22 | Drake London ATL | WR11 |
| 23 | Josh Allen BUF | QB1 |
| 24 | Josh Jacobs GB | RB12 |
It’s smart to draft players who are a major part of good offences. Isiah Pacheco might be one of the most reliable players in fantasy this season and he hasn’t peaked offensively as a player yet. The Chiefs finally moved on from Jerrick McKinnon so he’ll be facing less competition, especially as a pass catcher. McKinnon had 13 receiving touchdowns for the Chiefs over the past two seasons. Pacheco only has 2 receiving touchdowns so far in his career but that should increase dramatically this coming year.
Pacheco clearly earned the trust of Andy Reid during the latter half of the season – from week 12 through the Super Bowl, Pacheco averaged 17.6 half PPR points per game, which would have been good for RB3 overall if that stretch was extrapolated throughout the entire season. Yes, the Chiefs passing offence will likely rebound after a dismal 2023, but Pacheco has earned a major role in the offence. He’s going as the RB10, has a super high floor, and can easily finish as a top five back this season.Â
Round 3
| 25 | Chris Olave NO | WR12 |
| 26 | Travis Kelce KC | TE1 |
| 27 | Deebo Samuel Sr. SF | WR13 |
| 28 | Nico Collins HOU | WR14 |
| 29 | Sam LaPorta DET | TE2 |
| 30 | Patrick Mahomes II KC | QB2 |
| 31 | Mike Evans TB | WR15 |
| 32 | Jalen Hurts PHI | QB3 |
| 33 | Cooper Kupp LAR | WR16 |
| 34 | Brandon Aiyuk SF | WR17 |
| 35 | Rachaad White TB | RB13 |
| 36 | James Cook BUF | RB14 |
In 2023, James Cook was finally used as a focal point for the Bills once the team fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and elevated Joe Brady to replace him. Cook went from averaging 12 carries and 2.4 receptions per game under Dorsey to 17 carries and 3.1 receptions once Brady took over. Brady is back this season, and Cook is in line to be a major part of the Bills offence once again.
Cook has struggled to score touchdowns on the ground, recording only 2 in each of his two seasons in the NFL, yet was still a top 12 running back last season. He did catch 4 touchdowns last year, so if he gets a chance to finish off a couple more runs this coming season, a 10-12 touchdown output is completely within reach.
Cook struggled to stay on the field over the past two campaigns, but this year the Bills didn’t bring in a veteran like Latavious Murray or Damien Harris to insulate him. Meaning that Cooks is essentially the reliable veteran and lead back on this team. I recognize that rookie Ray Davis might quickly take over the red zone role and Josh Allen will always be stealing those short yardage touchdowns , but Cook should be able to maintain a 75% snap share on an offence that’s sure to be moving the ball.Â
Round 4
| 37 | Lamar Jackson BAL | QB4 |
| 38 | Michael Pittman Jr. IND | WR18 |
| 39 | Jaylen Waddle MIA | WR19 |
| 40 | DJ Moore CHI | WR20 |
| 41 | DK Metcalf SEA | WR21 |
| 42 | Joe Mixon HOU | RB15 |
| 43 | Kenneth Walker III SEA | RB16 |
| 44 | Stefon Diggs HOU | WR22 |
| 45 | Alvin Kamara NO | RB17 |
| 46 | DeVonta Smith PHI | WR23 |
| 47 | Malik Nabers NYG | WR24 |
| 48 | Trey McBride ARI | TE3 |
Jaylen Waddle was amongst many disappointing second round wide receivers picks in fantasy last season but his per game numbers really undersell his impact on this team. The Dolphins also clearly believe in him and gave him a three year extension this offseason as a result.Â
Waddle only missed 3 games last year, but he played in less than 66% of Miami’s offensive snaps in another 5 games. In his 9 healthiest games he averaged over 81 yards per game and hit career high numbers on a per route basis throughout the entire season, which are WR1 numbers. His 2.5 yards per route run was 8th best in the NFL, and he was targeted on 26% of his routes, which is an absurd number considering he’s lining up across from a superstar in Tyreek Hill.
The Dolphins have kept Waddle in bubble wrap this training camp, so his lack of practice reps is a slight concern. He did return to full participation last week so it looks like he will be ready to go once the regular season kicks off. Waddle’s upside is so huge that being able to grab him in the fourth round is just too good of a value for me to not select him.Â
Round 5
| 49 | C.J. Stroud HOU | QB5 |
| 50 | Mark Andrews BAL | TE4 |
| 51 | Anthony Richardson IND | QB6 |
| 52 | Dalton Kincaid BUF | TE5 |
| 53 | Amari Cooper CLE | WR25 |
| 54 | Aaron Jones MIN | RB18 |
| 55 | James Conner ARI | RB19 |
| 56 | David Montgomery | RB20 |
| 57 | George Kittle SF | TE6 |
| 58 | Tee Higgins CIN | WR26 |
| 59 | Rhamondre Stevenson NE | RB21 |
| 60 | George Pickens PIT | WR27 |
It’s no secret that I am infatuated with drafting Anthony Richardson. There’s a major risk, but, especially in one QB leagues, you can find a replacement quarterback on the waivers. CJ Stroud and Jordan Love were mostly waiver wire adds last season and both finished in the top 5 at quarterback. One of my few predictions that I got correct last season was that the Colts offensive line would return to form after a poor 2022 season, and the entire line is back this season.
Shane Steichen is a super aggressive offensive coach who led the Colts to 3rd in the league in plays per minute last season. This fast paced aggressive offence is exactly what Richardson needs to thrive in the NFL. He’s struggled this preseason with his accuracy, but his mobility is what will make him a fantasy league winner. Richardson was the QB1 in fantasy points per dropback last year and if he can stay healthy will finish this year as the QB1. Adding Adonai Mitchell to this offence is a huge upgrade over Alec Pierce, and with Josh Downs missing time with an injury, Mitchell has been working exclusively with the ones this preseason. Look for him to get off to a hot start with Richardson this year.
Round 6
| 61 | Kyler Murray ARI | QB7 |
| 62 | D’Andre Swift CHI | RB22 |
| 63 | Tank Dell HOU | WR28 |
| 64 | Zay Flowers BAL | WR29 |
| 65 | Kyle Pitts ATL | TE7 |
| 66 | Joe Burrow CIN | QB8 |
| 67 | Najee Harris PIT | RB23 |
| 68 | Terry McLaurin WAS | WR30 |
| 69 | Zamir White LV | RB24 |
| 70 | Evan Engram JAC | TE8 |
| 71 | Rashee Rice KC | WR31 |
| 72 | Raheem Mostert MIA | RB25 |
I had a hard time not selecting Kyler Murray here because I think he’s in line for a big season but I didn’t want to go back to back with my mobile quarterbacks. Tank Dell was my original pick, until a certain someone started rocketing up in drafts.Â
My favourite pick here is now Rashee Rice. Rice was going near the end of the 7th round up until last week, but now that he’s not been placed on the commissioners exempt list a 2024 suspension is less and less likely. Throughout the preseason, Rice has clearly proven that he’s the team’s WR1. Rice was incredibly efficient as a rookie, and Reid finally started opening up the route tree for him in the latter part of the season.
Rice didn’t play more than 55% of the team’s offensive snaps until week 7, but played at least 75% of snaps from weeks 14 to 17. During that stretch, Rice was the WR8. From weeks 12 through 18, Rice ranked 12th in target share, 10th in yards per route run and 9th in fantasy points per route run. The Chiefs rebuilt their wide receiver room, but Rice’s role is largely unaffected by the additions of Marquise Brown who’s already injured and rookie Xavier Worthy. His target competition is Travis Kelce, and I really believe that Kelce will be reserving himself to make a major impact in the playoffs. The Chiefs offence will be back this season, and you can get their WR1 with the 71st overall pick. That’s insane value.Â
Round 7
| 73 | Christian Kirk JAC | WR32 |
| 74 | Jordan Love GB | QB9 |
| 75 | Dak Prescott DAL | QB10 |
| 76 | Keenan Allen CHI | WR33 |
| 77 | Chris Godwin TB | WR34 |
| 78 | Tony Pollard TEN | RB26 |
| 79 | Calvin Ridley TEN | WR35 |
| 80 | Jake Ferguson DAL | TE9 |
| 81 | Javonte Williams DEN | RB27 |
| 82 | Jayden Reed GB | WR36 |
| 83 | Diontae Johnson CAR | WR37 |
| 84 | Devin Singletary NYG | RB28 |
To be completely honest, when we get to this collection of players I am more likely to reach into the round 8 group to make sure I get two of those players because I just think they have much higher upside.
I haven’t ended up with Jordan Love in my redraft leagues this year because I tend to lean towards taking a mobile quarterback in fantasy, but he’s a great consolation prize this late in the draft. Everyone is getting excited about the Green Bay and Houston Texans offence, but the difference in ADP for the offensive weapons is absolutely wild to me.
Love is currently going a full two rounds later than Stroud. The three main pass catchers in Houston are all being taken in the top 65 picks. Green Bay’s first receiver is being drafted in this same round with Jayden Reed going at 82. The ability to load up on your other positions, come back and take Love this late in the draft and STILL be able to get a stack with your quarterback with some Packer receivers is such an underrated asset. All of these pass catchers in Green Bay are dropping in drafts because there’s little clarity as to who’s in what role so throw some darts on Wicks (157th overall), Doubs (136th overall), Watson (100th overall), Reed (82 overall), Musgrave (173rd overall) and Kraft (305th overall) and just see if something hits. Love was the QB2 from weeks 10-17 last season and has a massive upside. If you miss out on the first wave of quarterbacks, Love is a great value here.Â
Round 8
| 85 | Xavier Worthy KC | WR38 |
| 86 | Zack Moss CIN | RB29 |
| 87 | David Njoku CLE | TE10 |
| 88 | Jaylen Warren PIT | RB30 |
| 89 | Rome Odunze CHI | WR39 |
| 90 | Brian Robinson Jr. WAS | RB31 |
| 91 | Brock Purdy SF | QB11 |
| 92 | Nick Chubb CLE | RB32 |
| 93 | Austin Ekeler WAS | RB33 |
| 94 | Brock Bowers LV | TE11 |
| 95 | Jayden Daniels WAS | QB12 |
| 96 | Jonathon Brooks CAR | RB34 |
I think I talked about this during our mock draft, but I’m falling head over heels with Rome Odunze. He has great size, excellent route running and automatic catching ability. He’ll need to fight for snaps, but Keenan Allen has reportedly bulked up to put it politely and is currently at 230 lbs. I really think that Allen will be pushed into the irrelevant slot role in Shane Waldron’s offence that JSN was forced to play in Seattle last season while Odunze and DJ Moore work on the outside.
Waldron’s offence also uses a lot of two tight end sets, so Odunze will probably not be on the field a ton to start the season. However, he already has a connection with Caleb Williams, who looks great in the preseason so far. Odunze might be on the bench more than we like for the first quarter of the season but I’m expecting him to explode in the second half of the season and lead you to a fantasy championship.
Later round favourites
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR JAX) – 109th overall (9th round)
While I’m not fully buying into the Jaguars this season, I won’t deny Trevor Lawrence can throw a great deep ball and Thomas has looked really good against NFL corners so far this season. His speed at his size is incredible and I think he has a chance to have some massive spike games. The hard part will be deciding which weeks to start him as he has potential be a volatile asset throughout the season as he develops his route running.
Gus Edwards (RB LAC) – 113th overall (9th round)
I know it’s only preseason, but the Chargers are leading the league in rushing yards before contact already. Their offensive line will be one of the best units in the league and Gus Edwards is the one who will be punching in the touchdowns. JK Dobbins is a high risk high reward option but he’s still making his way back from his second torn ACL. Rookie Kimani Vidal was on the verge of being cut before an impressive preseason game seemingly secured his spot on the roster, but I think Edwards is the back to own here for at least the first half of the season.
Rico Dowdle (RB Dal) – 132nd overall (11th round)
Dowdle is gearing up to be the leading back in Dallas. Zeke is already worried about his age and injuries, and head coach Mike McCarthy came out this past weekend and made comments about how Dowdle will be taking less snaps on special teams to keep him fresh to carry the offensive load. Hero or zero RB drafters need to be targeting Dowdle consistently. He might not be a league winner, but getting a viable workhorse running back this late in the draft is incredible value.
Ty Chandler (RB MIN) – 147th overall (12th round)
Chandler is too skilled to be going as the 147th overall player. He’s behind Aaron Jones in Minnesota. Jones can’t seem to stay healthy and is almost 30 years old. There’s no other competition in Minnesota so if Jones is to miss time, Chandler will immediately step into a leading role. Definitely worth a 12th round pick to stash and see what happens, especially if you’re working a hero or zero RB strategy.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.