With quarterbacks and receivers out of the way, we take an in depth look at the running back rankings as training camps open up.
There seems to be a lot of value picks in the draft at running back this year. 2023 late round picks Raheem Mostert, Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon all finished in the top 15 at the position last season and did not require a big investment in draft capital, and are all still available as later round selections in this year’s fantasy drafts.
There was a lot of player movement at the position this offseason, leading to many varied opinions on how things will shake out in 2024 as we try and project how these backs will fit into their new offensive schemes.
While this year’s rookie class does not have the elite level talent that we have had in the past couple of seasons, the rookies are included in this set of rankings, and there are some intriguing first year players that might be worth taking a flier on this season.
Again, we are going deep in this set of rankings, and including where each player was ranked after the Superbowl in February.
Without further ado…
Tier 1:
Until proven otherwise, McCaffrey remains in a tier of his own.
- 1. Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers – RB1 in February
As is tradition, Kyle Shanahan spent OTA’s trying to convince anyone who will listen that he’s going to ramp down McCaffrey’s usage this season to try and preserve him for the playoffs. I don’t think fantasy managers need to put much stock into that. McCaffrey and Shanahan are too competitive, and the entire offence revolves around how much of a threat McCaffrey is every time he’s on the field.
While we have to recognize that father time will eventually catch up with the 28 year old superstar, he’s yet to show signs of slowing down so I wouldn’t anticipate him to fall off the proverbial cliff this season. He’s the easy pick for the first overall selection in most formats of fantasy football.
Tier 2:
These two backs are the ones who have a chance to unseat McCaffrey as the RB1 this coming season. Breece Hall is the elder statesman at just 23 years old. I personally cannot wait to see what these backs can do this year with their improved offences, and will be drafting them heavily in 2024.
- 2. Breece Hall – New York Jets – RB2 in February
Breece Hall somehow managed to finish as the RB7 in 2023 despite playing behind the 31st ranked offensive line and dealing with the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle at quarterback.
The golden rule is to avoid players in their first year back from a major injury (Hall suffered a torn ACL in his rookie season), but Hall played in every game for the Jets in 2023. He clearly was back to full health as the season progressed, scoring the second most fantasy points in the second half of the season behind only McCaffrey. Hall also led the league in receptions by a running back with 76.
He was held to under 1,000 rushing yards on the season, but still managed an impressive 4.5 yards per carry despite the offensive line issues. New York has rebuilt their line offseason, adding some high caliber veterans who, when healthy, are amongst the top of their position. PFF now has the Jets offensive line ranked as the sixth best in the league entering 2024. Hall has proved that he can get it done without any help, so his sky high ceiling is enticing, particularly with what’s expected to be a much improved offence in New York.
- 3. Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons – RB3 in February
Robinson began the preseason hype in OTA, telling members of the media how he expected to be used like Christian McCaffrey in the new Falcons offence. Every athlete wants to talk themselves up entering the season, so I didn’t put too much stock into that. However, that same rhetoric has now been repeated by new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson as training camps open.
When a coach wants to tell you exactly what he’s planning to do with his running back room, sometimes it’s smart to take him at his word. New Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is surrounded with weapons in Atlanta, but he’s coming off of a torn achilles so it makes sense that the Falcons will be looking to make his life easy by leaning on Bijan early and often. Robinson is one of the most explosive backs in the league, and the Falcons have a strong offensive line to open up holes for him to take advantage of.
Tier 3:
Tier three is highlighted by running backs that I consider to have the safest floor with the potential to have breakout games. Their overall season outlook isn’t as high as the top three backs on my list, but they’ll definitely be winning you a week or two if you’re lucky enough to draft them.
- 4. Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions – RB4 in February
Gibbs is in a tier below Robinson and Hall, but anticipate him taking another leap in his sophomore season. He’ll still cede valuable goal line touches to David Montgomery, but now that he has a full season under his belt, I can’t see the Lions continuing to only use him on 60% of their offensive snaps this coming year.
Gibbs is incredibly explosive and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is already openly discussing how to find more creative ways to get the ball into his hands. Despite his limited snaps last year, particularly at the start of the season, Gibbs still managed to find the end zone 11 times and racked up over 1,200 scrimmage yards. With this high powered offence, Gibbs could easily surpass 1,500 scrimmage yards while at the very least maintaining that touchdown total.
- 5. Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles – RB9 in February
There are plenty of concerns for Barkley’s first year output in Philadelphia. The tush push is a looming factor surrounding any type of running back production in Philadelphia. And Jalen Hurts has yet to show in his NFL career that he’s willing to check down to his running back on a regular basis limiting their value as receivers.
However, Hurts has never played with a back as skilled as Barkley, and Barkely has never played behind such a good offensive line. Last season, DeAndre Swift was tackled at the one yard line six times, and each one of those resulted in a Hurts rushing touchdown. Barkley won’t be taken down so easily, especially if he has a chance to punch it into the end zone.
Barkley is also expected to be on the field for a major amount of snaps on this offence from week one, whereas Swift couldn’t even win the starting job in 2023. Philadelphia ran the ball seventy six times last season within the five yard line – Barkley had six total rushes in 2023 in the same area of the field with the Giants – I expect his touchdown totals to be at the top of the league in 2024 as the Eagles use him more as a workhorse back while they try and keep Hurts healthy to avoid another late season collapse.
- 6. Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – RB7 in February
Now that Taylor is signed and healthy, he looks to be primed for a resurgent season in 2024. Anthony Richardson, when healthy, will open things up for Taylor in the backfield due to the constant threat of Richardson escaping pressure and creating huge gains with his legs, meaning even if defences stack the box, they have to make a snap decision to follow Taylor or spy on Richardson.
After missing the majority of his rookie campaign, I would assume that the Colts will be trying to prevent Richardson from putting himself in harm’s way as much as they can, leading to Taylor taking the brunt of the called runs and leaving Richardson to create only when necessary. Taylor was a top eight RB in the second half of the season in 2023, and with the loss of Zach Moss in free agency, he has no competition for touches in the backfield. There’s a chance that Taylor might lose some goal line touches to Richardson, but I still believe that he’s one of the most talented running backs in the league and will be able to take pressure off of Richardson.
- 7. Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams – RB5 in February
Head coach Sean McVay has shown us over the years that he loves to rely heavily on one running back, and Kyren Williams is set to be in that role for the second straight season. The Rams depth chart behind Williams is weak. There are those who believe in rookie Blake Corum, but his skill set emulates Williams, so it’s hard to see how Corum can find a way to take Williams off the field barring injury.
Injuries, however, are a concern. Williams missed seven games in 2022, and another four last season with various nagging ailments. His 2024 camp also hasn’t gotten off to a great start as he’s already been sidelined in OTAs with a foot injury. However, it’s still early so that’s not knocking him down my rankings as of yet. But his situation is definitely something to monitor throughout training camps. If he manages to stay healthy, Williams should have a huge role in this offence yet again and could compete for another top five RB finish.
- 8. Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens – RB22 in February
Henry was one of the best fits in free agency this offseason. The Ravens let Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins head off to LA, and their explosive young back Keaton Mitchell is starting camp on the PUP list as he tries to work his way back from a week 15 torn ACL. Despite Henry entering his ninth season in the league, he’s set to take the lion’s share of the rushes in his first year in Baltimore.
Henry was dominant in fantasy again last season despite playing behind the horrendous offensive line in Tennessee. Henry managed only 4.2 yards per rush last season, but averaged only 2.1 yards before contact, which was 32nd in the league amongst rushers with over 100 carries. If Gus Edwards was able to punch in 13 touchdowns in 2023 in Baltimore, I think it’s safe to assume that a healthy Henry can easily top that and lock in another top ten fantasy finish. Watching Henry and Lamar Jackson execute RPO’s all season will be a thing of beauty for everyone who isn’t lined up on the opposite side of the field.
Tier 4:
With the exception of one of the most explosive backs in the league, tier four is a solid group of backs who will likely provide you with a strong floor, plenty of touches and the occasional spike week. We’re entering the point of your drafts where these players would be your ideal RB2. In my opinion, this is the last chance to find a possible RB1 in drafts before you have to fully commit to a zero RB strategy and rely on waivers to get you through the season.
- 9. Isaiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs – RB12 in February
Pacheco is one of the more consistent and dependable backs outside of the top eight. He gets forgotten in fantasy due to the fact that he plays with two of the most famous players in the league, but he’s become a true focal point of this offence.
With Jerick McKinnon currently not on the roster, Pacheco also faces the least amount of competition in the Kansas City backfield. The Chiefs added plenty of speed to their receiver room with the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, so defences will have to account for the deep threat while also keeping an eye on Travis Kelce, leaving more running lanes for Pacheco to take advantage of. Pacheco is currently being drafted as a top ten running back despite never finishing above RB15, but his usage in the second half of the season and the playoffs make him a good bet to take a step forward this season.
- 10. De’Von Achane – Miami Dolphins – RB6 in February
If your fantasy strategy revolves around chasing upside, then Achane is the back to target. Achane’s ADP was sky high earlier in the summer as best ball drafters ramped him up, but he’s begun to be more affordable now that redraft leagues are getting their drafts started. Achane racked up an unprecedented 518 scrimmage yards on 11.5 yards per touch and seven touchdowns in his first three games of his career last season before injuries crept up and limited his availability for the remainder of the season. He’s shown that he doesn’t need a high volume of touches to be a difference maker, but his small frame and injury concerns keep him from the upper tiers in fantasy rankings.
- 11. James Cook – Buffalo Bills – RB8 in February
Cook has a legitimate chance to be one of the leading receivers in Buffalo this coming season. No team lost as many targets as Buffalo did in the offseason, and the receiver room doesn’t inspire much confidence.
With Joe Brady back as offensive coordinator after taking over midway through the 2023 season, it’s safe to expect Cook to have an even bigger role on this offence than he did in the second half of 2023. The biggest concern surrounding Cook is his lack of touchdown production. Cook has only reached the end zone four times in his two seasons in the NFL. But, for once, the Bills didn’t sign a veteran red zone vulture this offseason, something that they have done each of Cook’s two seasons in the league.
Josh Allen will always be a factor in the red zone, but I have a hard time believing he will match his fifteen rushing touchdowns from 2023 after he hovered around 7-8 in his first five seasons of his career. This could be the year that Cook finally finds the end zone on a more consistent basis and lives up to his potential.
- 12. Travis Etienne Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars – RB10 in February
When the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in 2023, I took that as a sign that Etienne’s usage would be taking a step back. However, Bigsby had a terrible rookie season, leading to Etienne dominating the backfield in Jacksonville to the tune of 325 touches, the third most amongst running backs.
There are concerns that Etienne isn’t built to handle that type of workload again. Despite having a healthy season in 2023, Etienne’s production peaked around week seven, and his snap percentage went from the mid 80s down to the 60’s for the remainder of the season as he clearly began to wear down. Jacksonville didn’t bring in more competition at the running back position, so Etienne is set to be the bellcow for another year.
If Bigsby can prove to be worthy of taking some of the workload away from Etienne, I think it would actually benefit Etienne’s season-long fantasy impact. Jacksonville’s offence really needs to click this coming season after disappointing in 2023, and, if it does, Etienne will be a big part of it.
- 13. Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers – RB23 in February
Jacobs struggled last year after missing all of training camp due to a contract holdout and being forced to play on a bad Raiders offence, but he gets a fresh start this season in Green Bay. The Packers offence looks primed to be one of the best in the league, and in the rare occurrences where they had a healthy Aaron Jones last season the run game was a fantastic compliment to Jordan Love and the passing offence.
Jacobs’ efficiency metrics should all take a major step up with this offence. While he may not lead the league in yards like he did in 2022, he should be in line for a bounce back season. Jacobs passes the eye test as a capable receiver out of the backfield so I cannot explain how he still has yet to record a receiving touchdown in his five year career. Look for that to finally change in 2024.
- 14. David Montgomery – Detroit Lions – RB13 in February
Montgomery is still the engine that runs the Lions running game. Gibbs deserves the hype due to his incredible upside, but Montgomery will still be doing the dirty work and punching in those vital short yard touchdowns.
As a rotational back last season, Montgomery finished with the ninth most rushing yards (1,015) and was tied for the third most rushing touchdowns (13). I don’t expect him to have a major drop off this year despite expecting Gibbs to take on a bigger workload. It’s rare that one team can produce two top fifteen RBs in fantasy, but this marriage has worked so far and I can’t think of a reason why it won’t continue.
Tier 5:
This is a tough tier to pick from. Every season, fantasy drafts have a running back dead zone, and this collection of players will define this year’s. They can all be serviceable backs, and will be rostered and started in a high percentage of leagues, but they lack consistent upside and rarely will you feel good about making this selection.
- 15. Aaron Jones – Minnesota Vikings – RB14 in February
When healthy, Jones is still one of the top backs in the league. Unfortunately he’s only played a full season twice in his seven year career and is coming off an injury plagued 2023 where he only was able to suit up for 11 contests.
The Packers opted to sign Josh Jacobs, who is three years younger than the 29 year old Jones, causing him to sign with divisional rival Minnesota. The Vikings have a strong offensive line, and whether it’s Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy starting at quarterback, Jones should immediately become a focal point of this offence. If he has a healthy and productive training camp, I might be more inclined to bump him up a tier, but his lack of availability is a big risk to take.
- 16. Joe Mixon – Houston Texans – RB16 in February
I doubt many fantasy football players remember that Joe Mixon finished as the RB5 in 2023. His game isn’t explosive, and is only getting less exciting as he ages. This offseason Mixon looked like he was set to be cut by the Bengals before the Texans swung a last second trade and subsequently signed him to an extension to join one of the league’s top ascending offences.
Mixon’s new deal gives him more guaranteed money than Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs so the team has financially committed to Mixon becoming the lead back in Houston. What Mixon lacks in explosiveness he makes up for in durability and consistency. He’s a capable pass catcher and an excellent pass blocker, so he’ll be on the field for a major percentage of snaps for Houston this season. He isn’t someone you’ll get excited about in the draft, but will give you a reliable option at running back week to week.
- 17. James Conner – Arizona Cardinals – RB17 in February
Conner isn’t getting any younger, but as he enters the final season on his deal in Arizona, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t be the mainstay of the Cardinals run game. To draft Conner is to assume that, at best, you’ll get 12-13 games out of him as he’s never appeared in more than 15 games in a season throughout his seven year career.
That being said, when he’s on the field he’s efficient and has a reasonably high floor. Conner finished tied for tenth amongst all running backs in touches per game last season (18.1). While Arizona did draft Tre Benson, he looks like he’ll serve as a backup to Conner before taking over the leading role next season. Conner is 29 years old, and this could be the year where he falls off that age cliff. But the Cardinals are going to surprise a lot of people with their offence this season and Conner will be a big benefactor of that when he can stay on the field.
- 18. Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB11 in February
White was one of the least efficient backs in the league last year, but his high usage led him to a RB7 finish. White was targeted heavily in the passing game (64 catches on 70 targets), and the Buccaneers didn’t bring in any real competition at the position this offseason.
The loss of Dave Canales as offensive coordinator will likely hurt the Bucs offence, and when you combine that with the inefficient running style of White, I’m inclined to believe that his 2023 fantasy season is more of an outlier than a sign of things to come.
The Bucs also have some major question marks on their offensive line (outside of Tristan Wirfs) so expecting White’s rushing production to improve is a questionable decision at best. However, he’ll still be a factor in the passing game and remain a relevant fantasy asset.
- 19. Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots – RB24 in February
The Pats inked Stevenson to a four year, $36 million contract this past June, including over $17 million guaranteed. Stevenson will be the bell cow back for this team, and has shown that he can be a factor in the passing game as well.
It would be a great set up for Stevenson if the Patriots had any semblance of a capable offensive line. Stevenson will have the same issues this season that Derrick Henry dealt with in 2023 – he’ll constantly be getting contacted behind the line of scrimmage snap after snap. The Pats are also projected to score the least amount of points in the NFL this year, so while Stevenson will benefit from the volume, he’s in line for more frustrating fantasy games than explosive ones.
- 20. Raheem Mostert – Miami Dolphins – RB19 in February
I cannot wrap my mind around how Mostert’s current ADP is in the late 80’s. 2023’s RB3 led the league with 23 total touchdowns. While the Dolphins drafted another track star running back in Jaylen Wright, they don’t have any one else on the roster to take over the red zone role that made Mostert so valuable last season.
Sure, Mostert is 32 years old, but missing so much time in his career with injuries means he doesn’t have the miles on him like someone like Zeke Elliot does. I can’t see how Mostert doesn’t get double digit touchdowns yet again this season as he cleans up in the red zone, and I strongly believe he currently is one of the best values in redraft leagues.
- 21. Zach Moss – Cincinnati Bengals – RB42 in February
After a mini breakout to start the 2023 season in Indianapolis, Moss yielded the starting role to Jonathan Taylor and was mostly irrelevant from a fantasy perspective for the rest of the season. His early season performance in a contract year was enough to convince the Bengals to move on from Joe Mixon, signing Moss to pair with speedster Chase Brown as the two leading options in the Cincinnati backfield.
While Brown has plenty of hype due to his elite athleticism, it will be Moss’s full rounded skill set that keeps him on the field. Moss will quickly endear himself to the Bengals staff with both his high level pass blocking ability and his skills rushing from shotgun – a favorite formation for Joe Burrow. An RB1 season is likely out of the question for Moss, but I would be more than happy to have him locked in as a steady floor RB2.
- 22. Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks – RB20 in February
Walker was still the lead back in Seattle last season, but Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks 2023 second round pick, definitely began earning valuable touches, particularly in the passing game. We enter 2024 with a brand new offence – as head coach Mike McDonald hired former Washington Huskies HC Ryan Grubb as the team’s new offensive coordinator. If Grubb’s tenure in college told us anything it’s that this offence will be significantly picking up pace in 2024.
While that means more offensive snaps for everyone, I actually think that increases the value of Charbonnet and his pass catching acumen, while slightly diminishing the value of Walker. He will still be the lead back for this team as he’s the more explosive option, but I can’t see how he settles in as more than a low end RB2 in fantasy this year as the Seahawks use a more rotational running back strategy.
- 23. Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – RB15 in February
The Steelers might end 2024 with the best overall rushing attack in the league. They’ve done an incredible job of rebuilding their offensive line over the past 3 offseasons by bringing in absolute maulers, and the upgrade from Matt Canada to Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator is huge.
While Smith frustrated fantasy owners as a head coach in Atlanta, he most certainly knows how to operate a successful run game in the NFL. If Harris was the clear back on this roster, he would easily be close to being ranked as an RB1. However I find it hard to decipher how the touches will be given out this early in the training camp process. It’s very possible that Harris leads the team in touches, but does most of his work grinding the ball downfield between the 20’s, with Jaylen Warren rotating in with his big play ability.
Smith made sure to bring Cordarrelle Patterson with him to Pittsburgh, and I just can’t shake the feeling that Patterson will be a frustrating touchdown vulture all season with Harris carrying the team into the red zone. Add in the possibility that Justin Fields has to replace Russel Wilson at quarterback, and we’re looking at a possible 4 headed monster in the running game. I just don’t have enough faith in Harris’s skills to earn the lion’s share of the most valuable snaps.
- 24. Gus Edwards – Las Angeles Chargers – RB31 in February
Edwards is another player that I’m much higher on than the consensus. Edwards is currently going as the RB41 as he enters his first season in LA with new head coach Jim Harbarough and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. It’s not a secret that the Chargers are moving to a more run oriented offence. I don’t think that they’ll disregard the passing game as much as some, but there’s no doubt that they’ll at least be moving closer to a 50-50 split between the passing game and running game as opposed to the pass heavy offence they attempted under former head coach Brandon Staley.
Edwards stands to be a big benefactor of this new scheme – the Chargers have a strong offensive line thanks to the addition of rookie Joe Alt, and Justin Herbert is still such a weapon at quarterback that team’s can’t afford to go all out to stop the run despite the question marks in the receiver room. Edwards doesn’t have much competition for touches – J.K. Dobbins was also signed this offseason, but with only $50,000 worth of guaranteed money, he’s not even a safe bet to make the team as he works back from another ACL tear. Kamani Vidal is getting some hype as a deep sleeper, but he was a sixth round pick and is unlikely to take on any sort of major role until the latter half of the season at the earliest. Edwards is unlikely to be able to maintain his 4.9 yards per carry average as he takes on the unquestioned leading role, but he’ll be consistently on the field and has an opportunity to end the season with some huge touchdown totals.
- 25. Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – RB25 in February
Kamara is the most receiving dependant back in the NFL, finishing the 2023 season second in the league with 75 receptions despite starting the season with a three game suspension. Looking towards 2024, the Saints offensive line got even worse with the announcement that Ryan Ramczyk will miss the entire season, so those checkdowns to Kamara that Derek Carr loves will become even more valuable.
That being said, it was obvious that Kamara was starting to feel his age last year as he clearly looks like he’s beginning to lose a step. At 29 years old, Kamara is still a high value pick in full PPR leagues, but his value as a pure rusher in ½ PPR and standard league is quickly starting to diminish. However, with second year back Kendre Miller already dealing with multiple ailments in OTA’s and training camp, it looks like the Saints will be forced to rely on Kamara once again.
Tier 6:
Now that we’re out of the RB2 range, let’s cut down the lengthy descriptions and just touch on a couple of key points of the remaining forty players in these rankings. This group has the last of the sure thing starting running backs for their respective teams, as well as some RB2s who can break out if they’re forced into a larger role this season. We also get to touch on the first rookie in the rankings, which is also exciting in fantasy circles.
- 26. Brian Robinson – Washington Commanders – RB28 in February
Robinson had a strong 2023 season, and at 6-foot1 and 228 pounds he has the build to continue to be the goal line back for the Commanders. Unfortunately their offensive line might not be very good, and with Austin Ekeler coming over to take away some of Robinson’s role in the passing game, his ceiling is lowered even more this coming season.
- 27. Zamir White – Las Vegas Raiders – RB34 in February
White ended the 2023 season as the Raiders lead back, and with Josh Jacobs now in Green Bay, White will be getting a heavy dose of the work this coming season. He’s shown some flashes, but the overall lack of offensive line talent and major questions at quarterback will keep him limited this year despite a potential heavy workload.
- 28. Tony Pollard – Tennessee Titans – RB21 in February
Pollard admitted that he didn’t feel like himself until over halfway through the 2023 season as he worked his way back from a broken leg in 2022. He’s a big bounce back candidate in 2024, but will be fighting off Tyjae Spears for touches. The Titans did invest in him early in free agency, but it looks like he will be in a split backfield with the next player in our rankings.
- 29. Tyjae Spears – Tennessee Titans – RB18 in February
Spears was in line for a massive role this coming season after the team moved on from Derrick Henry, but the Titans threw big money (for running backs) at Tony Pollard to create ambiguity in the Tennessee backfield. This is a positional battle that I’ll be paying close attention to in training camp as the Titans have vastly improved their offensive line in both the personnel and coaching aspects.
- 30. Jaylen Warren – Pittsburgh Steelers – RB33 in February
Warren is more explosive and exciting than Najee Harris, which means Arthur Smith will refuse to use him as much as fantasy owners would like. Russell Wilson threw to his running backs more than any quarterback in the league last season, and Warren is a very good pass catcher, so there’s a possibility that he becomes a valuable PPR back, but until we see what his usage looks like in training camp it’s hard to move him up too far in the rankings.
- 31. Jonathan Brooks – Carolina Panthers – Rookie
Brooks could win the starting job in Carolina by late September as he works his way back from a torn ACL, or his entire rookie season could be spent rehabbing and adjusting to the NFL. His overall talent and three down upside are worth taking a flier on to me at this point in the draft, but you’ll have to have patience with his early season lack of production if you want to see the results that I believe that Brooks can produce.
- 32. D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears – RB45 in February
Despite being signed immediately in free agency by the Bears, the fact that Swift is on his third team in three years and enters a crowded backfield in Chicago are major red flags to me. He’s a high level pass catcher out of the backfield, but rookie quarterbacks tend to have difficulty supporting pass catching backs in their first year, and Swift has struggled to reach the end zone throughout his career.
Tier 7:
In tier seven we begin to enter the high value handcuff territory. The Denver backfield gets its first (of many) mentions in this draft, and we’re forced to wait to see what will happen in Cleveland.
- 33. Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks – RB29 in February
Charbonnet failed to carve out a larger role when Walker was healthy in 2023, but he flashed in his limited appearances and looked ready to step into the leading role when Walker missed games due to injury. Charbonnet averaged nearly three yards after contact and can be a factor in the passing game. If Walker is to miss time, Charbonnet can be a league winner in the new Seahawks offence.
- 34. Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns (IR) – RB27 in February
Chubb’s injury in 2023 was one of the worst injuries I’ve ever seen live. After seeing him squat 540 pounds this offseason, the only conclusion we can come to is that Chubb is not human and his twice repaired knee has somehow only made him stronger. Logic says to not take Chubb the year after such a devastating injury, but the heart says he’s worth a late dart throw to come back and take over the leading role in a strong rushing attack.
- 35. Tre Benson – Arizona Cardinals – Rookie
Benson is a year away from being a consistent fantasy value, but he’s one of the top handcuffs entering this season. Connor will miss games, and I don’t expect much of a dropoff when Benson gets snaps. If the Cardinals are out of the playoff race early, they could decide to see what they have in their rookie back, meaning Benson could be one of those late season league winners when it comes to fantasy playoffs if you have the patience and a spare roster spot.
- 36. Devin Singletary – New York Giants – RB41 in February
Singletary might be the least fun pick in the draft, but he’s the undisputed number one back in New York. As bad as this offence could be this season, the volume Singletary will get is worth something. But the team will be behind in most games which could nullify the running attack early on.
- 37. Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – RB26 in February
One of my highest drafted players entering the 2023 season, Williams rewarded me by being a huge disappointment in his first season with Sean Payton. Williams is now two years removed from his torn ACL, but the rumblings out of Denver make it seem like he’s a training camp cut possibility. I still believe in the talent, but the fit in Denver clearly isn’t working for Williams to be considered in fantasy drafts.
- 38. Jerome Ford – Cleveland Browns – RB35 in February
Ford filled in adequately for Cleveland after Chubb went down with his knee injury, averaging 14 touches per game. However even with the backfield to himself, he didn’t make much of a fantasy impact and now enters the 2024 season with quite a low ceiling.
- 39. Rico Dowdle – Dallas Cowboys – NR in February
Zeke Elliot, who the team cut two years ago, is 29 years old, Royce Freeman is on his fifth team in five seasons and Deuce Vaughn is 5-foot-6. At 6 feet and 215 pounds Dowdle at least has the size to play consistent snaps in the NFL, even if he’s lacking top end talent.
Tier 8:
When you’re this late in your draft, you need to take a look at your roster and see what you’re in need of. There are some players here that are safe bets to plug into an already set lineup during bye weeks. But there are also some player with massive upside if your roster is weak at the running back position and want to take a big shot on some high potential. Roster creation really matters in your decision making process at the end of your drafts.
- 40. Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons – RB46 in February
Allgeir still holds the rookie rushing record in Atlanta, and is an extremely valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson. However under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson it’s expected that his role will be diminished unless Robinson is forced to miss time.
- 41. Marshawn Lloyd – Green Bay Packers – Rookie
Head coach Matt Lafleur has shown us time and time again that he prefers to rely on a running back committee, and it won’t take much effort for Lloyd to supplant A.J. Dillon as the rotational back behind Josh Jacobs. If Lloyd didn’t have a problem with fumbles in college he would be much higher in the rankings. But rookies traditionally are given a very short leash if they can’t look after the ball, and Dillon does have a history with Lafleur.
- 42. Austin Ekeler – Washington Commanders – NR in February
While I’m not completely sold that Ekeler’s horrible 2023 season was entirely injury related, he’ll still have a role as a pass catcher in Washington as long as Anthony Lynn is there as the team’s running back coach.
- 43. Ezekiel Elliot – Dallas Cowboys – NR in February
Elliot leads the league in rushes amongst active players, and it’s starting to show. That being said, he somehow was the Patriots leading rusher in 2023 in both attempts and yards, and led the team in receptions. Yes, you read that correctly. He’s probably still the most talented back on the Cowboys roster, but I would bet on a steep decline before I would bet on a return to fantasy relevance.
- 44. Ty Chandler – Minnesota Vikings – RB37 in February
Chandler will start the season behind Aaron Jones, but with Jones’s injury history there’s a high probability that Chandler will get a few games as the team’s lead back. If I had more faith in the Vikings offence this season, Chandler would be much higher on the rankings.
- 45. Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals – RB39 in February
Brown is an unproven explosive back that can swing the occasional game, but he isn’t built to handle a heavy workload. He also has a grand total of eight pass blocking snaps to his name from his rookie season, so it seems that the Bengals staff don’t trust him yet to take on a consistent role.
- 46. Blake Corum – Las Angeles Rams – Rookie
Corum enters the season as the backup to Kyren Williams, and can offer league winning upside if Williams were to miss significant time. Corum is a pro ready back, but he’s a jack of all trades and master of none, which doesn’t give him much of a chance to earn snaps over Williams barring injury.
- 47. Jaleel McLaughlin – Denver Broncos – NR in February
McLaughlin looks like one of the best backs in the league when everyone on the defence is wearing shorts, but I have some serious doubts about his ability to be a consistent factor when the pads are on. You would have better luck betting on a number on a roulette wheel than trying to figure out the Broncos running back rotation at this point of camp.
- 48. Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers – RB32 in February
Hubbard has the early grip as the starting running back in Carolina. While they did improve the interior of their offensive line, they’re unlikely to be close enough in games to be able to consistently rely on their running game. Hubbard will also lose the starting job as soon as Brooks is ready to go.
- 49. Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints – RB30 in February
The talent is there for Miller, but after an injury plagued rookie season the early reports out of camp haven’t been great. He’s the only running back on the roster under 29 years old, but it appears that Kamara, Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams are currently outperforming Miller. He beats them in the rankings because of his upside if he does happen to put it all together in the coming weeks, but after yet another setback to begin training camp I would anticipate a major drop in the rankings for Miller.
- 50. Keaton Mitchell – Baltimore Ravens – RB43 in February
Mitchell was sneaky good last year before tearing his ACL in week 15. That late injury means he’ll likely miss the majority of the season, but could be a big factor in the fantasy playoffs. He’s more of a waiver wire watch than a draft selection.
- 51. J.K. Dobbins – Las Angeles Chargers – NR in February
The possibility remains that Dobbins comes back from his second major injury and easily supplants Edwards as the lead back for a run dominant Chargers offence, but his lack of guaranteed money and injury history make it one of the longest shots in the draft.
- 52. Jaylen Wright – Miami Dolphins – Rookie
If De’Von Achane were to suffer another injury, Wright could step in and be the explosive change of pace back in one of the top offences in the league.
- 53. Antonio Gibson – New England Patriots – NR in February
Gibson has a chance to be relevant if the Patriots look to take advantage of his pass catching ability and/or Stevenson misses time with injury.
- 54. Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars – RB48 in February
It’s hard to have faith in Bigsby after averaging ust 2.6 yards per carry and disappointing as a pass catcher, but the Jaguars are talking him up this offseason so they are at least making it seem like the organization hasn’t given up on him.
- 55. Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears – RB36 in February
- 56. Roschon Johnson – Chicago Bears – RB38 in February
Herbert and Johnson are ranked together because I’m anticipating some sort of movement in the Bears backfield. Swift was obviously targeted to be their RB1, leaving either Johnson or Herbert likely to be suiting up elsewhere at the start of the season. Whoever stays in Chicago has a real chance to carve out a significant role in the offence.
- 57. Ray Davis – Buffalo Bills – Rookie
I fully expect the Bills to sign a bruising veteran back, but, for the time being, Davis has the role of their finisher close to the end zone. Josh Allen is always a threat to punch it in himself, but Davis has the build to be relied on in that role if reinforcements aren’t coming.
- 58. Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – NR in February
Every year we talk about the potential fantasy output of Mitchell if McCaffrey were to miss time, only to have Mitchell be the one injured or stuck on the bench while McCaffrey plays over 75% of the team’s snaps. He’s someone to keep an eye on for waiver wire pickups, but it’s time we stop wasting a roster spot.
- 59. Bucky Irving – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Rookie
Irving could be a part time running back on one of the league’s worst rushing offences, or he could steal snaps away from an indecisive and inefficient lead back and carve out a slightly relevant fantasy season.
- 60. Audric Estime – Denver Broncos – Rookie
Estime isn’t likely to take on a major role in this offence, but with Payton seemingly souring on Williams early in camp Estime has a chance to be given a larger role in his rookie season than originally expected.
- 61. Kamani Vidal – Las Angeles Chargers – Rookie
Vidal was a late round pick, but with Edwards getting up there in age and Dobbins working his way back from a major injury, Vidal has a chance to be a big part of a run heavy team.
- 62. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – New York Giants – Rookie
Tracy converted to running back from wide receiver in college, so we know he’s a solid route runner and has good hands. He’s a long shot to make an impact on a poor Giants offence, but worth taking a look at in the deepest leagues.
- 63. Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans – NR in February
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has gone out of his way to praise Pierce this offseason, but it’s hard to buy into that chatter after Peirce clearly wasn’t a fit in the new Texans zone blocking scheme.
- 64. D’Onta Foreman – Cleveland Browns – NR in February
Foreman was a sneaky good signing by the Cleveland Browns. He gives them solid insurance if Chubb isn’t ready to return to the lineup and Ford struggles early in the season.
- 65. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs – NR in February
CEH is the clear backup to Pacheco now that Jerick McKinnon is off the roster. CEH never lived up to his first round draft capital, but Andy Reid seems to trust him and he’s tied to one of the top offences in football.
- 66. Alexander Mattison – Las Vegas Raiders – NR in February
Mattison went from being one of the best handcuffs in the league to an absolute disaster as a starter in Minnesota. He signed in Vegas with a chance to return to a complimentary role behind Zamir White.
- 67. Dylan Laube – Las Vegas Raiders – Rookie
While Mattison might be able to rediscover his explosiveness this coming season, there’s a chance he never lives up to the potential we thought we saw and Laube steps into the RB2 role in his rookie season.
- 68. Miles Sanders – Carolina Panthers – NR in February
Sanders proved that his rushing success was heavily reliant on the Eagles offensive line, as he struggled in his first year in Carolina. If Brooks takes a while to come back from injury, and Hubbard struggles or gets hurt, Sanders has a chance to get back on the field behind an improved offensive line.
- 69. Cordarrell Patterson – Pittsburgh Steelers – NR in February
Patterson is someone to consider earlier if your league counts return yards as I think that’s the real reason Smith brought him to Pittsburgh. But there’s still a chance that Patterson will become the team’s short yardage and red zone back.
- 70. Samaje Perine – Denver Broncos – NR in February
Perine doesn’t put up impressive numbers, but coaches love him so he’s consistently able to find a role on a team, even if that doesn’t end up being in Denver.
- 71. Isaac Guerendo – San Francisco 49ers – Rookie
With doubts surrounding Mitchell’s ability to stay healthy for an entire season, Guerendo has the early pole position to be the handcuff for McCaffrey in the 49ers high powered offence.
- 72. Rasheen Ali – Baltimore Ravens – Rookie
The Ravens still have Justice Hill on the depth chart, but if Derrick Henry were to get injured, Ali might be the one to step up into a larger role. He doesn’t have a lot of high end speed, but he’s a patient runner who takes advantage of the holes created by his offensive line and creates separation with his one cut ability.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: David. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.