Training camps are just a few days away, and we’re overdue to make some bold predictions.
Rankings are sure to change over the next few months as camp battles get settled, contract holdouts are resolved, and the inevitable injury bug throws teams into disarray.
In this set of rankings, I’ve put my personal ranking number from February beside it, so we can see the risers and the fallers (most notably Justin Fields plummeting out of my top ten). Rookies have also been added to the rankings now that we know where they landed and have (somewhat) of an idea what their roles will look like this coming season.
For the pre-training camp edition, I’ve also expanded the amount of quarterbacks in the rankings from 24 to 36. If you’re in a superflex start up, grabbing a high upside QB3 near the end of the draft is a must, but if you’re drafting early in the summer, the majority of the quarterbacks in those spots don’t have the starting job secured just yet, so monitoring the team reports will be key going forward.
As always, we’ll break QBs into tiers and give a quick run down of why each player ended up where they did.
Tier 1
When we did the rankings in February, I only had Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in the top tier of quarterbacks, however with the offseason changes to their teams, I no longer think there’s a significant gap between them and the next two quarterbacks.
- 1. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – QB1 in February
The Bills offensive personnel will look fairly different in 2024. Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston, and, despite his terrible finish to the 2023 regular season, his departure leaves a major hole at wide receiver. They also lost Gabe Davis in free agency. While Davis is as inconsistent as they come, he was a constant deep threat when he was on the field.
The Bills traded down in the draft and selected receiver Keon Coleman, who joins Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox as the primary pass catchers for Josh Allen. Each of those players excel working between the hash marks on offence, so it feels like things can become crowded without a reliable outside weapon.
Allen also finished as the QB1 last season, fueled by his career high 15 rushing touchdowns. While the Bills did draft a bruising running back in Ray Davis, I can’t see Allen giving up goal line touches until he physically can’t do it anymore. Allen is still the QB1 for this season, but the loss of offensive weapons and a potential move to a more run heavy offence makes the gap shrink dramatically between him and the following three quarterbacks.
- 2. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – QB2 in February
I have serious concerns about Jalen Hurts learning a new offence for the third season in a row. He was fantastic under Shane Steichen in 2022, struggled in the second half of the season in 2023 under Steichen’s replacement Brian Johnson, and is now forced to learn Kellen Moore’s offence for 2024.
With in the addition of Saquon Barkley to take some of the running game away from Hurts, and the loss of Jason Kelce at centre, there’s a lot to be concerned about fantasy wise in Philadelphia. On the plus side, Hurts was clearly injured early last season (Lane Johnson recently said on the Ryen Russillo podcast that he suffered a deep bone bruise in his leg) which clearly limited his mobility for the remainder of the campaign. The Eagles also locked up their two star receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this offseason, ensuring that Hurts will be surrounded by one of the strongest groups of offensive weapons in the NFL. If Hurts can execute Moore’s offence, and stay healthy, he has as high of a ceiling as any other quarterbacks in the league.
- 3. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – QB3 in February
Lamar Jackson is a slim quarterback to begin with. As a result, he’s spent the past few seasons trying to bulk up to protect himself against NFL sized players. This offseason he opted to cut back down to the 200-205 pound range in an effort to be more mobile and escape the pocket more efficiently.
While having your quarterback walking around that small would normally be a concern, Jackson rarely puts himself in a position to take big hits so the injury risk is lower for him than most players. Jackson will be entering his second season with offensive coordinator Todd Monken, so I expect the offence as a whole to be more creative this year.
The Ravens signed Derrick Henry in free agency, who will take over the majority of the rushes for the team. But while Jackson will likely have less designed run plays, the Ravens plan is to let him have more freedom to escape the pocket and create his own plays on the run.
Baltimore’s wide receiver room is largely unchanged, so Zay Flowers will be counted on to give this offence another star pass catcher outside of Mark Andrews. Jackson finished as the QB4 in 2023 with only five rushing touchdowns, so while Henry will take over as the red zone rusher, it’s doubtful that Jackson will finish with any less rushing touchdowns this coming season. If this offence opens up, and Flowers takes a step in his sophomore season, Jackson will have yet another impressive fantasy campaign.
- 4. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – QB4 in February
Mahomes moves into the top tier after the Chiefs used their offseason to improve what was one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the league. I cannot say I’m a huge fan of Hollywood Brown, but there’s no doubting his ability to stretch the field. He’s also a huge upgrade over Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
We’re still waiting to see what (if any) discipline Rashee Rice will be receiving from the league after an eventful offseason, but when he’s on the field, Rice is a developing talent who’s route tree should open up in his sophomore campaign. Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs first round pick this year, also brings game breaking speed to help open up the middle for Rice and Travis Kelce. With some new weapons for Andy Reid to play with, Mahomes is in line for another big season that should translate to fantasy success.
Tier 2
The biggest jump outside of the incoming rookies into the QB1 range is Anthony Richardson, as his athleticism can be a game changer. He’s joined in the second tier by two other young breakout quarterbacks – leaving the position in good hands going forward with this young crop of signal callers.
- 5. Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts – QB11 in February
Richardson had a couple unscheduled off days during OTA’s due to some soreness after his first full throwing day. But honestly, that doesn’t concern me this early in the offseason. He almost certainly has some scar tissue to work through after shoulder surgery, so this is going to be a part of the process early on. If he’s missing multiple practices in late August, then the concern meter will rise dramatically. While there will always be injury risk for Richardson, his upside is just simply too hard to ignore for fantasy football.
Richardson was phenomenal in his limited action last year. He has a brilliant offensive minded head coach in Shane Steichen, and two solid pass catchers that operate well together in Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. The addition of rookie Adonai Mitchell gives the team more depth in the receiving room, something they’ve lacked for quite some time. With his ability to make game breaking runs in the blink of an eye and the development he’s poised to make in the passing game, Richardson has no ceiling as a fantasy quarterback.
- 6. C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans – QB5 in February
Stroud’s breakout rookie season was one of the highlights of the season in 2023, and the Houston Texans have done a fantastic job of ensuring that he can take things to another level in 2024. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick is back for another season after rumours of being a highly sought after head coaching candidate, giving Stroud familiarity with the offensive system.
The Texans added Stefon Diggs and re-signed Dalton Schultz to line up with Nico Collins and a (hopefully) healthy Tank Dell, giving Stroud an incredible set of weapons. They also signed veteran running back Joe Mixon, who’s excellent in the passing game in both pass blocking and pass catching.
My only negatives regarding Stroud is that he’s the hot new name that drafters will be desperate to roster, driving his ADP up to a spot where I’m just not comfortable taking a quarterback who doesn’t offer the running upside of an elite fantasy QB.
Stroud is athletic enough to scramble, but he only racked up 167 rushing yards in his rookie year. If he takes a step forward on the ground in his second season, he’ll be a fantastic fantasy option. But until we see it on the field, his fantasy value is reliant solely on the passing game.
- 7. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers – QB8 in February
I’m one of the many fantasy football enthusiasts who’s fallen in love with the Green Bay pass catchers. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are still around, but in my opinion, they’ll be surpassed by the likes of Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks this season.
Even Bo Melton, who’s likely fifth on the team’s depth chart, made some really nice plays for the Packers near the end of last season. Green Bay also has two solid options at tight end in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, although Kraft is dealing with a torn pec that might keep him out well into the regular season.
Love had a stretch of games last season where he struggled, but was incredible over the last 7 weeks, working as the QB2 during that stretch. In 2024 we’ll quickly learn if he was just on a hot streak or if he can operate at that level over the course of a full year before we anoint him amongst the top quarterbacks in the league, but he’s a legitimate fantasy option that you can pair with the Packer receiver of your choosing.
Tier 3
A few more question marks for the quarterbacks in the third tier, and here’s where we see the first rookie enter the conversation.
- 8. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – QB6 in February
Dak Prescott was on fire during a prolonged stretch of the 2024 season. He was the QB3 from weeks 1-14 last year, averaging 21.4 points per game. Unfortunately in week 15 he put up an ugly stat line that resulted in just 7.4 points, dooming many a fantasy season in the first week of fantasy playoffs. Once again this year, Dak’s ADP is probably lower than it should be as owners are left with a sour taste in their mouth. He is also getting bumped down the rankings as a result of what’s been a weird offseason in Dallas.
The Cowboys lost two key players from their offensive line in Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz, which they’ll try to replace with their first and third round picks in this year’s draft (tackle Tyler Guyton and G Cooper Beebe). Their big offseason offensive free agent signing is a washed up Zeke Elliot who could barely get on the field in New England last year.
More importantly, the Cowboys have yet to address the contract situations hanging over the head of their three star players – Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. The latest reports are that Lamb is ready to skip training camp if a new deal isn’t in place by the time camp starts. And if he does in fact hold out, the Cowboys wide receiver room would immediately become one of the worst in the league. History tells us that won’t be the case – rarely does a player actually hold out into the regular season as the financial consequences are just too great, hence why Prescott is still holding onto a QB1 slot in the rankings. However, without any clarity in the situation I’m finding it hard to draft Prescott with any real confidence at this point of the evaluation process.
- 9. Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders – Rookie
If you miss out on the top quarterbacks, you might as well take a flier on the incredible upside of Jayden Daniels. Washington is trying to be coy and say that Marcus Mariota is currently in line to be the team’s starting quarterback. But as anyone who’s had to suffer through his play over the past few seasons can tell you, that won’t be the case come the start of the season.
Washington actually did a fairly good job building a somewhat decent infrastructure on offence. They probably should have drafted another tackle earlier in the draft, but the rest of their line is fairly solid. They also happen to have some very good weapons on offence.
Terry McLaurin would be a top tier star in the league if he ever had the opportunity to play with even an average quarterback, and I have not given up fully on Jahan Dotson despite his horrible production numbers last season. Rookie tight end Ben Sinnot can develop into a star at the position and should see his snaps increase this season as he slowly surpasses Zach Ertz on the depth chart. Add all that in with the incredible athleticism and speed that Daniels brings to the running game, and we could have a fantasy star in his rookie season.
The major concerns are glaring though – Daniels is small for the NFL, and, unlike Jackson, he doesn’t protect himself from contact and doesn’t plan on changing his style in the NFL. Kliff Kingsbury returns to the NFL as offensive coordinator this year. While he was able to guide Kyler Murray to an offensive rookie of the year award as a head coach, his offence was figured out quickly in the NFL and was forced to return to the college ranks after a couple of seasons. There were a lot of things wrong in Arizona during Kingsbury’s tenure, and it is very likely that he’s just simply better suited to be a coordinator at the NFL level.
Daniels is a high risk, high reward player, and if you decide to roll the dice on him, you might consider selecting a backup quarterback as an insurance policy for the inevitable injury that we foresee with Daniels.
- 10. Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – QB15 in February
Murray is another season removed from major injury, will be entering his second season with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, and has a potential star receiver joining the team with Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray always brings the fantasy rushing upside with his raw athleticism. Harrison will slide right into the WR1 role on this offence which helps slot the rest of the receivers into more suitable positions.
Michael Wilson could be a solid WR2 if he can stay healthy, and veteran Zay Jones continues to produce as a WR3 wherever he goes. Tight end Trey McBride had a mini breakout at the end of the 2023 season (coinciding with Murray looking like his pre-injury self), and even the running back room has two high level pass catchers in James Conner and rookie Tre Benson. The Cardinals are well coached, are building a stronger offensive line, and have now given Murray weapons in all phases of the game.
Tier 4
A very strange tier at the end of the QB1 range – two elite passers who’ve had some disappointing 2024 campaigns, along with the leaders of two of the NFL’s top offences, and our second rookie are all quarterbacks you can be targeting at the very end of your draft. Each of these quarterbacks can lead you to a fantasy championship, or have you scrambling to the waiver wire on a weekly basis.
- 11. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – QB9 in February
I wrote in February that Burrow might be earning the injury prone tag, and nothing about this offseason has given me any more confidence in his body holding up for a full NFL campaign. The wrist injury that sidelined him from week 11 on is something that no other quarterback has had to deal with, to the point that Burrow is reaching out to other positional players who have suffered the injury to solicit advice about the recovery process.
There were reports that the wrist injury would completely change his entire throwing motion, which Burrow quelled after looking great throwing in back to back OTA sessions, but concerns remain as to how long the surgically repaired ligaments can hold up. It’s just not an injury we have any history with to be able to estimate how things will go for Burrow going forward.
The Bengals have a history of convincing their franchise tagged players to play for one season on the tag before entering free agency, and you can now add Tee Higgins to that list as well. That’s excellent news for Burrow as it gives him an elite one-two punch with Ja’Marr Chase and a highly motivated Higgins. Burrow could be the steal of the draft if he’s healthy all year and you end up with Chase or Higgins in the early rounds.
- 12. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers – QB12 in February
The addition of Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator has been covered ad nauseam. The offence is likely to move towards a more balanced approach while they run Gus Edwards behind what’s looking like a very strong offensive line after drafting Joe Alt this offseason.
Herbert is still an elite level quarterback, but he has next to no established weapons on offence to target this coming season. I’m a big fan of Ladd McConkey, and believe he’ll easily win the WR1 role from Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, but he’ll definitely have some growing pains as a rookie entering the league. I think Herbert will have a bounce back season after the Chargers offensive weapons dealt with injuries last year, but it’s hard to anticipate the passing volume or touchdown totals being high enough for Herbert to be more than a fringe QB1 this season.
- 13. Jared Goff – Detroit Lions – QB10 in February
Goff has never been an overly relevant fantasy quarterback – he has his moments, but has rarely been a full season fantasy starter despite operating some of the league’s most explosive offences. If there’s ever a year for Goff to take hold of a solid QB1 rating, it will be this season.
Goff notoriously struggles in bad weather and cold outdoor games. The Lions lucked out schedule wise this year, as they only play three outdoor games – Week 9 in Green Bay, Week 16 in Chicago and Week 17 in San Francisco. Those final two games of the fantasy season against the Bears and 49ers are a big reason why I can’t justify moving Goff further up the list. Those are two high level defences, and weather will likely be a major factor in at least the Chicago game in December. Goff is more likely to continue to be an excellent real life NFL quarterback, but remain just outside of the QB1 fantasy range.
- 14. Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears – Rookie
The first overall pick in the NFL draft rarely gets to step into the an incredible situation that Williams will find himself in with Chicago. Williams will be passing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze at wide receiver, with solid veterans at tight end in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Even their running backs, specifically free agent signee D’Andre Swift, are strong pass catchers.
The Bears offensive line is still a work in progress, but Williams has good athleticism and has shown the ability to extend plays while still looking to make the pass. A C.J. Stroud type breakout rookie season is unlikely for Williams as it was just so unprecedented, but with the offensive weapons on this roster, it’s not completely off the table.
- 15. Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers – QB13 in February
After finishing as the QB6 in 2023, Brock Purdy is probably ranked too low as the 15th overall quarterback. He is after all quarterback for one of the top offensive minds in the game in Kyle Shanahan, and, despite all the trade rumours surrounding the 49ers, they’re currently returning with all of their offensive weapons in 2024 (pending the conclusion of the Brandon Aiyuk saga). However, the 49ers always play one of the toughest schedules in the league, and I still need to see Purdy do it again before I fully buy in.
Tier 4
As we move out of the QB1 range, we’ll trim down the descriptions a little bit and just throw out some quick notes about each quarterback.
- 16. Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – QB14 in February
Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards last season and still only finished as the QB10 in 2023. He’s trimmed down his weight again to be more evasive so there might be some upside as a rusher, but the Dolphins offence gets the majority of their touchdowns from their running backs, limiting Tagovailoa’s upside.
- 17. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars – QB16 in February
Lawrence has disappointed in three of his four seasons from a fantasy perspective. Despite currently being the highest player in the NFL, I don’t think bringing back the same coaching staff with worse offensive weapons will solve what’s going on with Lawrence’s game.
- 18. Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons – QB17 in February
Cousins is surrounded by weapons in Atlanta, but he’s 35 years old and coming off of a torn achilles while trying to familiarize himself with a new offence and new teammates. He was the QB6 before his injury in week 8 so there’s potential he could replicate those early season numbers in 2024, but the upside is lower than I would like in my quarterback.
Tier 5
- 19. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams – QB18 in February
The Rams offence gets its touchdowns on the ground – Stafford was fantastic last season and led Puka Nacua to breaking the rookie receiving record but only finished as the QB15 due to throwing just 24 touchdown passes across 15 starts. He’s another year older, and always a high injury risk, so it’s hard to make a case that he’ll ever be more than a solid QB2 or a bye week plug in.
- 20. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB19 in February
Mayfield was a pleasant surprise in superflex/two-QB leagues last season. While the Bucs retained the majority of their free agents, I think the loss of Dave Canales as offensive coordinator will mean that Baker reached his ceiling as the QB9 in 2023 and will take a step back this year.
- 21. Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets – QB23 in February
While Rodgers tore his achilles earlier than Cousins and therefore should be ahead of him in the rehabilitation process, Rodgers is already 40 and has Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator.
- 22. Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns – QB20 in February
Watson hasn’t looked good since his days in Houston, and despite the team going 5-1 with him in the lineup last season, I don’t think his play style fits with the Kevin Stefanski wants to run.
Tier 6
The bottom of the barrel of fantasy quarterbacks do have some names that could pop up this year.
- 23. Will Levis – Tennessee Titans – NR in February
The Titans surrounded Levis with plenty of offensive weapons so this will be a key year in his development. The gunslinging quarterback could be the one to join Jameis Winston in the 30 touchdown 30 interception if the Titans let him play out the season which is exciting if nothing else.
- 24. Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks – QB22 in February
The Seahawks still have great offensive weapons, and the addition of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator will definitely speed up the offence, giving Smith more opportunities to make plays. I’m just not sold that he’s the real deal after only one top tier offensive season.
- 25. Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints – QB24 in February
Captain checkdown will be back, throwing the ball 10 feet over his receivers head on the first drive of the game, getting frustrated and checking down to Alvin Kamara for the rest of the contest. Carr is a fine QB2 in a pinch but offers no real fantasy upside.
- 26. Russell Wilson – Pittsburgh Steelers – NR in February
Another fresh start for Wilson, as he’s looking like the early favourite to start over Justin Fields. Wilson still has a beautiful deep ball, so if you’re forced to roster him you have to hope for an immediate connection between Russ and George Pickens, but the Steelers are built to be a run dominant team.
- 27. Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers – NR in February
The Panthers roster got better on paper, but Young has a long way to go to prove that he won’t go down as one of the worst #1 picks in NFL history.
- 28. J.J. McCarthy – Minnesota Vikings – Rookie
- 29. Sam Darnold – Minnesota Vikings – NR in February
Whoever wins the starting job will be throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and (eventually) T.J. Hockenson while working behind a high end offensive line. I just have my doubts that either quarterback will be able to hold down the job over the course of the entire season. However, monitoring who is starting each week as an injury or bye week replacement will be important this coming year.
- 30. Daniel Jones – New York Giants – QB21 in February
Hard to imagine Jones, who played terribly in 2023 before tearing his ACL, will come back any better this year in a terrible Giants offence. Jones will also be holding off Drew Lock for the starting role, which should be an easy task for any fifth year starter. But the fact that Lock’s name keeps getting brought up in Jones discussions says all you need to know about his job security.
- 31. Gardner Minshew – Las Vegas Raiders – NR in February
- 32. Aiden O’Connell – Las Vegas Raiders – NR in February
While head coach Antonio Pierce is bringing some good vibes to the Raiders locker room, the offence will still be a work in progress in Las Vegas due to their quarterbacks. This is the least exciting quarterback battle to watch this offseason.
- 33. Bo Nix – Denver Broncos – Rookie
Sean Payton is out over his skis on this one. Nix will struggle in his rookie season with the lack of offensive weapons surrounding him, despite Payton tying himself to the 24 year old rookie.
- 34. Jacoby Brissett – New England Patriots – NR in February
- 35. Drake Maye – New England Patriots – Rookie
Again, a quarterback battle that has yet to be decided, but, unlike in Minnesota, whoever wins still won’t be a viable fantasy option. The Patriots still have a very good defence, but their offence is a work in progress at best. For at least this coming season, their wide receiver room is quantity over quality.
- 36. Justin Fields – Pittsburgh Steelers – QB7 in February
Reports out of Pittsburgh’s OTA’s weren’t positive after Fields requested a trade out of Chicago. If he can’t beat out Russell Wilson for a starting job, this might be the last time we see Fields on any fantasy rankings.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Erik Drost. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.