UFC Vegas 93: Perez vs Taira – 6.15.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 93: Perez vs Taira. A packed month of June continues with an event tonight at The UFC Apex. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 149-87-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 148-88-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-14-2024 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 7:30pm EST
Josefine Knutsson -200 vs Julia Polastri +160
- Anthony: The event today begins with strawweights Julia Polastri and Josefine Knutsson. While Knutsson is still unproven against any solid competition I really like what she has shown off thus far. Knutsson attacks opponents with very good kickboxing and powerful muay thai attacks in the clinch. She has also displayed good Fight IQ and taken opponents to the mat when she found herself holding the advantage there. Polastri garners some intrigue entering on an impressive winning streak of her own. The Brazilian will likely want to test her grappling against that of Knutsson. Polastri could find success here in top position but I am doubtful Knutsson lets the fight get dragged to the mat. Polastri’s technique could score her takedowns but it will be hard to deal with a more compact opponent that is so much stronger. Knutsson is a confident selection of mine today. I think she has a bright future ahead and clearly she has taken this fight camp very seriously. I am expecting her to really showcase her striking here against Polastri. Josefine Knutsson by Decision
- Nick: Josefine Knutsson is decent on the feet, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She has a solid wrestling base, but she seems to grapple to maintain position over chasing submissions. She is 7-0 professionally, coming off a win in her UFC debut via decision over Marnic Mann. Julia Polastri will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via submission of Patricia Alujas. Polastri is 12-3 professionally, with four wins via KO and three via submission. She’s still rounding into form as she’s only 26-years old, but she’s relatively well rounded and it can be expected we see her make considerable improvements from fight to fight. This is a low level match-up, which makes Polastri a live underdog by default. That being said, I do see Knutsson as the rightful favorite. Polastri’s aggressive style is likely to cost her as she starts to face better competition. Knutsson can be hittable at times, but she’s the more technically sound fighter in this match-up. Josefine Knutsson by Decision
Melquizael Costa -200 vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke +160
- Anthony: This is a fight at featherweight between Melquizael Costa and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Both men enter this bout coming off knockout losses and looking to return to relevance. I think Nuerdanbieke holds a slight advantage here, getting to dictate where this bout will take place. Costa is a sneaky southpaw striker but his best work is done while grappling and using his jiu jitsu. Nuerdanbieke has exceptional wrestling and I imagine he can keep this fight upright if Costa does hunt for takedowns early. Nuerdanbieke may pursue a takedown heavy gameplan of his own but I would say that is an ill-advised gamble. Costa can likely advance positions quickly on Nuerdanbieke if he does get top control. While standing this fight will be more closely contested although neither athlete is a crippling power threat. Costa has the better weapons at range and a higher volume attack than Nuerdanbieke. This will likely be a close bout but I think Costa gets the better of these scrambles. Melquizael Costa by Decision
- Nick: Melquazael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he does leave a lot of openings to be countered. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He is 20-7 professionally, coming off a brutal KO loss via ground-and-pound to Steve Garcia. Shayilan is another interesting prospect out of the UFC Performance Institute in China. He’s an extremely aggressive striker, but he’s struggled to find much success against a high level of competition. He has decent grappling ability once the fight hits the mat, but he doesn’t always lean on that part of his game. Similarly to Costa, he is also coming off a KO loss to Steve Garcia. This is a volatile and competitive match-up between two fighters who are more than willing to engage in dangerous exchanges. I slightly prefer Costa as I do rate him as the more well-rounded fighter of the two in this matchup. Melquizael Costa by Decision
Jeka Saragih -350 vs Westin Wilson +260
- Anthony: More featherweights will compete next with Jeka Saragih set to face Westin Wilson. Saragih packs a huge punch and utilizes a lot of unorthodox attacks to close distance effectively. He is significantly shorter than Wilson but I do not see size being a factor in deciding this bout. Wilson would like to engage grappling here but it is likely Saragih can defend shots and force Wilson to strike. If he is content to spend a round or two trading with Saragih, I think he gets put out badly. I am very skeptical of Wilson getting this fight down with his offensive wrestling. Both of his previous UFC appearances also ended by first round knockout. Wilson struggles to make it through moments of adversity and find himself in positions to score on the offensive. He will attempt takedowns, but as opponents disengage with Wilson he is always vulnerable to be hit. Saragih has the better instincts when fighting and much cleaner movements when exchanging in the pocket. I think he is a good bet to win here on the preliminary card. Jeka Saragih by Round One KO
- Nick: Jeka Saragih fights at an aggressive pace. He likes to force his opponents to fight moving backwards. He throws powerful but looping strikes and he’s mostly accurate in his pursuit. His striking defense is questionable at best as we saw in his UFC debut, a KO loss to Anshul Jubli. He has decent grappling ability both offensively and defensively, but he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet. Nine of his fourteen professional wins have come via KO, including his last time out where he secured an impressive win knocking out Lucas Alexander. Westin Wilson is 16-9 professionally, coming off back-to-back losses to Joanderson Brito and Jean Silva. Wilson is a jiu jitsu specialist who fights out of a karate stance in striking exchanges. He’s a dangerous grappler, but most of his wins have come against an extremely low level of opponent. The line is completely ridiculous here, but Saragih is the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing until he scores a knockout. Jeka Saragih by Round One KO
Gabriella Fernandes -165 vs Carli Judice +140
- Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s flyweight as Carli Judice will face Gabriella Fernandes. I will be interested to see what approach Judice takes in this fight against the Brazilian. Judice tends to be very quick, engaging with opponents on the feet and throwing her boxing combinations. It is fair to say that Judice’s skills are green but at 25 years old I think she could develop into a more complete fighter. Fernandes seems to have issues in more grappling heavy fights but I do not expect Judice to test her in that realm. Fernandes should be able to play at range in this bout and put her kickboxing on full display. We saw Judice in a fire fight her last time out but Fernandes presents a bigger power threat than her previous opponent Ernesta Kareckaite. Judice absorbed 184 significant strikes in that bout. It is certainly a close matchup on paper but I slightly favor Fernandes based on the tape that I’ve seen. She has a more complete striking arsenal than Judice and poses more of a threat to finish fights in this weight class. Gabriella Fernandes by Decision
- Nick: Gabriella Fernandes is primarily a striker, but most of her success has come on the mat as her two most recent wins have come via submission. She is 0-2 in the UFC, and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the roster if she can’t secure a win in this spot. She trains out of a solid gym via MMA Masters, but her skills seem far from refined. She has solid cardio and durability and she fights moving forward, but she’s small for the division and it seems she’s had issues damaging her opponents. Carli Judice is just 3-1 professionally, coming off a Contender Series loss to Ernesta Kareckaite. She is primarily a striker, and she’s surprisingly sound technically with someone with her limited level of experience. She has a solid understanding of footwork and she throws out a lot of volume in exchanges. Judice is the better technical striker in this match-up, but Fernandes should have a size and strength advantage here. Another low confidence play, but I see Fernandes’ well-rounded approach allowing her to secure a narrow win on the scorecards. Gabriella Fernandes by Decision
Nate Maness -550 vs Jimmy Flick +400
- Anthony: This is a fight at flyweight between Nate Maness and Jimmy Flick. In January, Flick rallied against Malcolm Gordon to secure his fifteen pro win by submission. The jiu jitsu black belt has extremely high level grappling and dominant top pressure for 125 pounds. Maness is serviceable when fights hit the mat but I do not think he can afford to play in that realm with Flick. Given his recent success I am not surprised to see Maness a heavy favorite but these odds seem a bit higher than they should be. Maness is a good boxer but not dominant in any aspect of the standup. He will hit Flick with some nice shots from range but I am not convinced he will make easy work of The Brick in this spot. While I hate seeing Flick raise his shell and retreat on the defensive, he does do well minimizing the damage that comes his way. Many people were curious about Flick’s fighting future and career goals at this time last year. Flick has since signed a new contract with the promotion. I expect him to be prepared and focused entering tonight’s fight. I am going to bet him as the sizable underdog in hopes of him finding a way to make Maness tap. The men that have stopped Flick with punches before seem to have much heavier hands than Mayhem Maness. Jimmy Flick by Round One Submission
- Nick: Nate Maness has a strong right hook, but he often telegraphs it to his opponents, making it easy to duck and defend. Maness has found a lot of success via his toughness and durability. However, against top competition he finds himself outclassed both on the mat and in striking exchanges. His recent losses have come to high level competition, but he’s had trouble making weight and it seems cutting down to 125 has been wearing on his strength and durability. He did get back in the win column his last time out, in an impressive win via KO of Mateus Mendonca. Jimmy Flick has extremely advanced BJJ ability, and is a former LFA flyweight champion. His striking isn’t terrible, but he has a questionable chin and durability, as six of his seven professional losses have come via KO. He’s coming off a solid win via submission over Malcolm Gordon, but he was nearly finished in that match-up before he scored his opportunistic finish. Maness will need to stay safe if this fight hits the mat as Flick’s grappling is his one true path to an upset. That being said, I expect he will. Nate Maness by Round Two KO
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Josh Quinlan -120 vs Adam Fugitt +100
- Anthony: The main card opens with a welterweight contest between Adam Fugitt and Josh Quinlan. This bout is near pick em for good reason as both athletes have yet to show elite skills in the cage. Another reason for the close odds here may be the perceived clash of styles we are getting. Fugitt does his best work while grappling and likely will search for takedowns here against a striker as good as Quinlan. Through three appearances, Fugitt has already converted five of his takedown attempts. When striking Fugitt can certainly hold his own but largely his boxing is a means to close distance and drag fights onto the mat. He fights as a southpaw but largely uses that stance for easier entry on his single-leg takedowns. Quinlan’s boxing is very good but his career seemed previously buoyed by PEDs. Twice before Quinlan tested positive for drostanolone. His best chance of winning tonight will be landing a combination and hurting Fugitt on the feet. I expect Fugitt to make this fight ugly and grind his way to a win. Adam Fugitt by Decision
- Nick: Josh Quinlan is an explosive striker who does an excellent job closing distance. He’s a competent grappler, but there’s really no denying he prefers to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, most recently falling via KO to Danny Barlow. He is 7-2 professionally with four wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. Fuggitt has decent striking ability, highlighted by a powerful left high kick. He’s shown solid wrestling ability as well, especially in his most recent win over Yusaku Kinoshita. Fugitt was a heavy underdog heading into that fight, but he did an excellent job leaning on his grappling to neutralize a gifted striker in Kinoshita and then finish him from mount late in the first round. He has since fallen via KO to Mike Malott back in June of 2023, and it’s fair to say he’s been generally inconsistent as a fighter at the UFC level.Fugitt will have his chances to win here, especially on the mat. Still, I find myself siding with Quinlan. He’s the far more durable fighter in this match-up and I expect he can mostly keep this fight standing until he finds a knockout. Josh Quinlan by Round Two KO
Asu Almabaev -550 vs Jose Johnson +400
- Anthony: This is a fight at men’s flyweight with Jose Johnson set to face Asu Almabaev. Both of these men have rather thin resumes but it appears Almabaev has all the tools to find success in this weight class. Almabaev is a phenomenal grappler with nine of his wins coming by way of submission. Through two UFC fights he has showcased his excellent skills on the mat, accruing a total 11 takedowns on 19 attempts. I am expecting Almabaev to slice through Johnson here as was the case when he opposed Ode Osbourne. Johnson has averaged a porous 36 percent takedown defense since joining the promotion. While Johnson’s long limbs play to an advantage when striking, he struggles to get separation from opponents on the mat. Almabaev should be very quick to engage with his grappling here and seems likely to smother Johnson before the final horn. Almabaev will have a few opportunities to find himself a finish here this evening. Asu Almabaev by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Asu Almabaev is coming off back-to-back UFC wins over Ode Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He regularly trains with top welterweight contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and impressive durability and cardio. He is 19-2 professionally, and widely considered a prospect to keep an eye on in spite of the fact he made his promotional debut at 29 years old. Johnson is 29-years-old and 16-8 professionally, coming off an impressive submission win over a tough out in Chad Anheliger. He’s relatively well-rounded but he really doesn’t have any singular standout skill offensively. He has faced decent competition fighting for LFA and Fury FC, but it is somewhat surprising he was awarded a UFC contract given his spotty overall record regionally. He’s massive for a flyweight, and his long limbs could prove troublesome for Almabaev at range or on the mat here if he’s chasing submissions. That being said, Almabaev is certainly the rightful favorite. As long as he stays sound defensively he should cruise to a win in this one. Asu Almabaev by Round Two Submission
Garrett Armfield -200 vs Brady Hiestand +160
- Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Garrett Armfield and Brady Hiestand. This should be a very exciting tilt between prospects that are on the rise. I am excited to see the improvements made by Hiestand after more than a year out of action. The 25 year old still lacks in terms of his striking prowess but I feel his future is very bright if he can continue to win. Hiestand does his best work applying pressure to opponents and dragging fights to the mat. I feel confident that Armfield can keep this fight upright given his stout build and past wrestling credentials. His boxing is much better than Hiestand, landing with more power and finding his target quickly. Armfield strings together combinations well but his best strikes are the 1-2 and all straight shots down the centerline. Hiestand may struggle to close the distance in this fight if strikes are landing at Armfield’s normal clip. On average Armfield lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute. While he is the rightful favorite in this spot, I am not going to bet Armfield as I feel this line should be closer to even money. Garrett Armfield by Decision
- Nick: Garrett Armfield is 10-3 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He is 2-1 in the UFC, coming off a career best win via decision over a tough out in Brad Katona. Armfield has a solid wrestling base, and on the feet he packs surprising power for his frame. He has excellent cardio and durability, and his fighting IQ has been a major strength for him since he broke into the promotion. Brady Hiestand is still a developing prospect, but his wrestling is very advanced. He has explosive hips and he does a good job holding inferior opponents in position. Hiestand will likely have a grappling advantage here, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep the majority of this fight from taking place on the feet. Armfield is the better striker as he has a better understanding of footwork. He should have a considerable power advantage on the feet here as well. Garrett Armfield by Decision
Timothy Cuamba -200 vs Lucas Almeida +160
- Anthony: This should be a great featherweight contest between Lucas Almeida and Timothy Cuamba. After a poor showing on Dana White’s Contender Series, Cuamba fought well in his short notice promotional debut. Cuamba really has some solid striking with exceptional power. I am a fan of his skills when compared to Almeida but sometimes Cuamba fails to find sustained success. I worry this may be a situation where Cuamba is too hesitant to engage. Almeida is much more willing to jump in the pocket and trade blows. He lands with high striking accuracy and his volume is almost double that of a guy like Cuamba. I’d be hesitant betting Almeida after seeing him finished in both previous fights, however I do view him as the value side of this matchup. Both men here have the ability to finish while Almeida will be more live than these odds suggest if we do end up needing the judge’s scorecards. Lucas Almeida by Round Two KO
- Nick: Timothy Cuamba is 8-2 professionally and only 25-years old. He fights well at range and he has solid durability and cardio, but he’s coming off a hard fought decision loss to another young fighter in Bolaji Oki. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but he certainly prefers to stand and strike at range. He’s technically sound both offensively and defensively, but he has yet to really show one shot KO power at-or-near the UFC level. Lucas Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. He is 14-3 professionally and 1-2 in the UFC, coming off an ugly KO loss to Andre FIli. Almeida is relatively well-rounded, with surprising power for his frame. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his cardio has been an issue at times so he mostly prefers to stand and trade on the feet. Another low confidence play, but I do like Almeida as an underdog here. Cuama is athletic, but he’s far from developed as a prospect and I’m not sure he has the power to put Almeida away. Lucas Almeida by Decision
Miles Johns -145 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +120
- Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at bantamweight between Miles Johns and Douglas Silva de Andrade. Johns has won three fights in a row and looks to build his way back into the division’s top twenty here. Oftentimes I do favor Johns at the betting window but his fights are generally very close and oftentimes decided late. On paper Johns should be favored against the 38 year old Andrade but I am sure this will be a very competitive back and forth. Johns is confident with his striking but not as technically skilled as D’Silva. The better strikes should come from Andrade here early, utilizing his boxing and healthy reach to touch up Johns. We will likely see Johns look to execute takedowns here, relying on his wrestling to earn this victory. Andrade has had solid takedown defense throughout his career but I imagine he may struggle with the strength of Johns. Neither athlete is trustworthy in the latter half of fights but I have to anticipate Johns will hold up better than his older opponent. I side with him at near even odds, but Johns is not by any means a confident pick. Miles Johns by Decision
- Nick: Douglas Andrade is a brawler with a lot of power in his strikes. He’s very athletic, but what stands out about him is his toughness and aggressive style. He likes to pressure his opponents early in fights and often overwhelms them by doing so. He’s getting up there in age at 39-years old, but he’s still a tough out for any fighter outside of the rankings at 135 pounds. Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. Johns often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. This is a tough one to call as both of these fighters are inconsistent. I slightly prefer de Andrade as he’s found more success against top-tier opposition. Douglas Silva de Andrade by Decision
Tatsuro Taira -200 vs Alex Perez +160
- Anthony: The main event should be a good one at flyweight with Alex Perez set to face Tatsuro Taira. Perez returned from hiatus earlier this year and already put together two impressive showings in the octagon. March saw Perez lose a tightly contested bout against Muhammad Mokaev while in April he won by knockout against Matheus Nicolau. He has looked very sharp, doing great work with his boxing and low kicks as per usual. Perez will have a decisive advantage here striking with Taira but this bout should be super competitive on the mat. Taira’s grappling dominance has led him to a perfect record of 15-0. His judo is excellent and Taira holds a purple belt in jiu jitsu. Perez has historically done well defending takedowns but does struggle to fight out of positions when he is grounded. Perez has eight pro losses and five of those have come by way of submission. Over the course of five rounds I think Perez will be able to out-scramble Taira and land the more meaningful strikes. Taira will need to secure a dominant position early here to earn a comfortable win. I think this fight swings heavily into Perez’ favor the later it goes, especially with him having far more cage experience than Taira. Consider live betting Perez if this does get into rounds three, four and five. Taira is the rightful favorite in this spot but Perez presents a very good challenge for the 24 year old. It would not surprise me to see his perfect record tarnished here. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Tatsuro Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He’s only twenty-four years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level wrestling and BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently securing a KO win over Carlos Hernanhdez. At his best, Alex Perez has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and fights at an excellent pace. Additionally, his calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone in this division. He’s a solid grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. He also does a good job staying out of trouble and finding favorable positions in the scramble. Taira is an extremely talented prospect, but this match-up with Perez represents a considerable step up in competition for him here. Perez is the better striker, and while there are questions around his durability and his submission defense, he should have the wrestling and Fight IQ to mostly stay safe. Taira could certainly catch him for an early submission, but I like the value here on the underdog. Alex Perez by Round Four KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com