Looking back at the 2023 fantasy draft position for wide receivers is almost painful. Injuries, as always, were a huge factor, but there were so many projected breakout players that simply didn’t live up to the pre-fantasy draft hype. That void in the fantasy rankings had to be filled, however, and we had some receivers step up in a massive way.
Receiver is both the deepest and most valuable position in fantasy football, and stealing a stud in the later rounds can win you your league.
Let’s take a look at the projections for the 2024 draft.
Note: All fantasy rankings from the 2023 season are coming from Yahoo’s ½ ppr rankings.
Tier 1:
- Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings – WR29 in 2023
Here are Jefferson’s fantasy points weeks 1 through 4 – 20.5, 19.4, 25.4, 25.5. That is elite, consistent high-level performance. Unfortunately the season went off the rails, as Jefferson suffered a hamstring injury in week 5, missed the next 7 games, and came back to a team that was barely clinging onto the playoffs while rotating through a slew of backup quarterbacks. The Vikings quarterback situation is still up in the air, as Kirk Cousins is not only recovering from a torn ACL, but also a free agent. In the end, it doesn’t matter. Jefferson is quarterback proof. Find someone who can last in the pocket for 2 seconds and launch a ball in his direction and let him create magic. Don’t overthink it, Jefferson is still the WR1.
2. Ceedee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – WR1 in 2023
Lamb exploded in 2023 to take over as the WR1 in Jefferson’s absence, and it was well deserved. The Cowboys moved him all over the field to keep defenses on their toes, and Lamb was able to beat every type of coverage despite being the only real receiving threat on the team. Lamb literally does everything for this Cowboys offense. He was tied with Davante Adams for the league lead in red zone targets to wide receivers. Lamb, as well as Prescott, are both on the final year of their deals, and will both likely be entering the 2025 season as the top earners at their respective positions. I trust in Lamb to live up to that billing.
3. Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins – WR2 in 2023
Hill showed no signs of slowing down last year despite playing his final season in his 20’s, and will enter 2024 with essentially no major changes to the offensive scheme. Hill set career highs in 2023 with 171 targets, 119 catches and 1,799 receiving yards. I was a strong believer that he had a real chance to top 2000 receiving yards, but a couple of down games due to some minor injuries ruined those chances. Not only does he barely have a bust week, he also brings some huge game potential to win a week to your team.
4. Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – WR13 in 2023
Ja’Marr Chase has raised his average fantasy ppg each season when he plays with Joe Burrow from 15.8 in 2021 up to 16.3 in 2023. Unfortunately they didn’t play together very much this past year, as both Burrow and Chase dealt with injuries. Cincinnati lost their offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to the Titans, but promoted from within, so it’s unlikely this offense will have to endure any major growing pains to start the season. Health is the key for Chase to rebound back amongst the top 5 fantasy scorers at his position.
Tier 2:
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown – Detroit Lions – WR3 in 2023
St. Brown is a PPR monster who’s returning as the alpha receiver in a high flying offense in Detroit. Detroit was able to convince their offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to stick around for another year despite garnering interest from multiple teams to become a head coach. With all the pieces of this offense returning, St-Brown looks primed to have another great campaign in 2024.
6. Puka Nacua – Los Angeles Rams – WR5 in 2023
Puka Nacua goes from an unranked waiver wire pick up to the 6th wide receiver in these rankings after authoring the best rookie receiver season we’ve seen. Nacua caught 105 of his 160 targets on the season, almost eclipsing 1,500 yards. We would love to see his touchdown totals increase for 2024 as the Rams offense tends to run the ball more than pass, but Nacua has already proven to be an elite level WR1 in the league.
7. A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles – WR7 in 2023
A.J. Brown is coming off of a back to back 1,400 yard seasons since joining Philadelphia from Tennessee. The 2023 Eagles offense as a whole struggled, resulting in the team hiring former Cowboys and Chargers OC Kellen Moore. Moore loves to have his teams throw the ball all over the field, so look for Brown to have another big year in 2024. If Brown finds himself in the Ceedee Lamb/Keenan Allen role in Moore’s offense, 7th may be too low of a ranking. He’ll likely rise up peoples rankings once training camps get underway and Moore starts gushing about having Brown on the team.
Tier 3:
8. Nico Collins – Houston Texans – WR10 in 2023
Third year breakouts rarely happen in the NFL, but Collins was able to top his combined stats from years 1 & 2 in 2023 and has seemingly cemented himself as a top 10 WR for as long as he’s paired with C.J. Stroud. Collins finished 2023 with almost 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns despite missing 2 games and playing injured in 3 others. Collins always had promise, and now that the Texans seem to have something legitimate on offense, the sky’s the limit.
9. Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – WR11 in 2023
Samuel’s dual threat ability as both a receiver and a runner opens up so much for the 49ers on offense. He only caught 60 passes for 892 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2023, but added to that with 225 yards rushing and another 5 touchdowns. The injury concerns are always there, but he managed to play in 15 games this past season. McCaffrey is still the focal point of the offense, but Samuel will always be a major factor out west.
10. Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – WR14 in 2023
Aiyuk plays the more traditional receiver role for the Niners offense, and does so extremely well. He tends to lose some red zone looks to Samuel, McCaffrey and others, but offers plenty of big play potential for the 49ers. While Samuel gives them an excellent weapon in zone coverages, Aiyuk is amongst the best in the league at beating man coverages. His 1,342 yards over 16 games were a career high, bumping his yards per reception from 13.0 in 2023 to 17.9 in 2024.
11. D.J. Moore – Chicago Bears – WR6 in 2023
Moore had an excellent first season as the WR1 for Justin Fields, but the odds are fairly high that he’ll be working with a new quarterback in 2024. Thanks to the Panthers, the Bears are slated to pick first overall in this year’s upcoming rookie draft and are likely to select USC’s Caleb Williams as the rebuild continues. Rookie quarterbacks are normally not good news for WR1’s, so unless Williams explodes into the NFL like C.J. Stroud did this past season, Moore is likely to take a few steps back in 2024.
12. Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR4 in 2023
Evans recently re-signed in Tampa on a 2 year, $52 million deal that will likely keep the 10 year veteran with the Bucs for the entirety of his career. Despite turning 30 last season and playing with a new quarterback on a 1 year prove it deal in Baker Mayfield, Evans started all 17 games and easily surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th time in his career. He’s also a dominant red zone threat, hauling in 13 touchdowns last season. Tampa still has to figure out their quarterback situation for 2024 – Mayfield is a free agent and his play in 2023 has earned him a massive raise from the $4 million he played for in 2023. With Evans under contract, the Bucs are looking to use their franchise tag on star safety Antoine Windfield, meaning they will have to act fast to work out an extension for Mayfield before free agency opens.
Tier 4:
13. Garrett Wilson – New York Jets – WR31 in 2023
Wilson and the Jets year ended 4 snaps into the regular season when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. They strangely opted to not find a suitable replacement, instead rolling out Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle. The offensive line was also a huge problem and finished as the 31st overall unit in the league. Wilson still saw 168 targets and finished with over 1,000 yards, but the team was never a real threat to put up points as Wilson only found the end zone 3 times all season. 2024 should be a big bounce back year. The Jets have draft capital and cap space to make some moves this offseason to rebuild their offensive line. And no matter how you feel about 40 year old Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, there’s no way the quarterback play can be worse than what we saw in 2023.
14. Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – WR9 in 2023
There’s no denying that Diggs’ season fell off of a cliff in 2023. He was virtually a non-factor in the Bills offense from week 10 onwards. Over the final 7 games of the season, he saw 62 targets, and posted 36 catches for 262 yards and 1 touchdown. That lack of production would extrapolate out to 150 targets, 87 catches, 636 yards and 2.5 touchdowns over a 17 game season. That’s just not acceptable for a WR1 who was likely drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of redraft leagues. Diggs always seems to be complaining about his role in the offense (despite the high usage and total targets numbers) so it’ll be interesting to see when the team has had enough of Diggs’s diva attitude. There are few better players out there than Diggs when healthy, focused and motivated, but it seems like those times are becoming few and far between as he gets older.
15. Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers – WR8 in 2023
The Chargers season as a whole was an absolute disaster in 2023. With the team far out of the playoffs and moving on from their entire coaching staff, Allen essentially opted out the final 4 games of the season while dealing with a myriad of injuries. Despite the missed time, the 31 year old finished with over 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns and was Justin Herbert’s favourite target all season. I have concerns of Allen replicating his fantastic season – he’s another year older and is coming off a difficult season where he was playing through injury more often than not. While new head coach Jim Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone, I don’t love the hiring of Greg Roman and his archaic run-heavy offensive philosophy as the team’s offensive coordinator.
16. DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – WR21 in 2023
Smith is another young receiver that had a disappointing season in 2023. While he was able to match his touchdown totals from 2022, his targets, catches and yards were all down compared to his sophomore season. Smith has the ability to be a big play receiver and a true 1B to Brown’s 1A, but all too often he was irrelevant in the Eagles offense. Like Brown, I’m high on the offense taking a big step forward in 2024 with Kellen Moore in as offensive coordinator, but I now see Smith as a mid WR2 as opposed to last season when I viewed his as a potential WR1.
17. Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers – WR20 in 2023
I’m all aboard the Reed hype train for 2024. The Packers surprised most of us with their explosive offense last year, and right there amongst it was Reed. Christian Watson has too many hamstring problems for me to ever consider him to be a real WR1. Romeo Doubs has some very strong moments but is more of a solid WR2. I think Reed has a chance to really break out in 2024 and become the leading receiver for this team. His snap percentage in 2023 was low as he was learning to become a true NFL player, so that can definitely increase significantly. Despite that, he still managed to find the end zone 8 times, while also returning punts and taking the occasional hand off as a rusher. He has the potential to be a true offensive weapon in this up and coming offense.
18. Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints – WR24 in 2023
Olave has all the talent in the world, but as long as he’s still is playing with captain check down Derek Carr, he’ll never reach his ceiling. As soon as Kamara came back from his suspension to start the season, Carr only had eyes for his pass catching running back. Like Smith, I was entering the 2023 season expecting to see Olave in an expanded role and really grab a hold of a WR1 spot in fantasy, but he failed to deliver.
19. Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders – WR12 in 2023
If the Raiders don’t find an answer at quarterback for the 2024 campaign, I have a hard time believing that Adams won’t find a way to force himself out of town. Adams still managed to finish as the WR12 last season, but that was helped by 2 monster games, and one of those was in week 18 when it didn’t help you for fantasy. The firing of former head coach Josh McDaniels seemed to rejuvenate the 31 year old, but there was only so much he could do with Aiden O’Connell lining up under center. The Raiders have already let it be known they’re in the market for any type of quarterback upgrade, whether that be through free agency or moving up in the draft. Unfortunately I don’t see them acquiring someone who will give Adams the bump in play that he deserves.
20. Michael Pittman Jr. – Indianapolis Colts (UFA) – WR18 in 2023
While it’s yet to be finalized, Pittman is expected to be back on the Colts in 2024, whether it be through an extension or the franchise tag. Pittman had a really nice year in 2023 playing with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards. He’s another fantasy weapon that just needs to find the end zone more consistently to break into the upper tiers as he scored only 4 times in each of the past 2 seasons. With Anthony Richardson expected to return and take over as the Colts quarterback of the future, it’s hard to see Pittman improving on those numbers next season. Richardson will certainly be used more as a runner in the red zone, and the Colts will have Taylor back at running back from the beginning of camp. I am a big fan of Pittman as a player, but am more pessimistic when it comes to his fantasy profile.
Tier 5:
21. DK Metcalfe – Seattle Seahawks – WR15 in 2023
22. Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs – WR26 in 2023
23. Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns – WR19 in 2023
24. Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins – WR35 in 2023
25. Tank Dell – Houston Texans – WR39 in 2023
26. Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals (Franchise Tag) – WR49 in 2023
Tier 6:
27. Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens – WR30 in 2023
28. Drake London – Atlanta Falcons – WR40 in 2023
29. Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings – WR16 in 2023
30. Calvin Ridley – Jacksonville Jaguars (UFA) – WR17 in 2023
31. Terry McLaurin – Washington Commanders – WR28 in 2023
Tier 7:
32. Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR47 in 2023
33. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks – WR48 in 2023
34. George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR27 in 2023
35. DeAndre Hopkins – Tennessee Titans (UFA) – WR22 in 2023
36. Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR44 in 2023
Tier 8:
37. Dontayvion Wicks – Green Bay Packers – WR56 in 2023
38. Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions – WR81 in 2023
39. Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders – WR57 in 2023
40. Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos – WR34 in 2023
41. Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR32 in 2023
42. Jakobi Meyers – Las Vegas Raiders – WR23 in 2023
43. Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers – WR35 in 2023
44. Rashid Shaheed – New Orleans Saints (RFA) – WR42 in 2023
45. Gabe Davis – Buffalo Bills (UFA) – WR40 in 2023
46. Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – WR33 in 2023
47. Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills – WR62 in 2023
48. Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams – WR41 in 2023
49. Darius Slayton – New York Giants – WR45 in 2023
50. Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers – WR64 in 2023
51. Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – WR60 in 2023
52. Marquise Brown – Arizona Cardinals (UFA) – WR51 in 2023
53. Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals (UFA) – WR52 in 2023
54. Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos – WR50 in 2023
55. Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts – WR46 in 2023
56. Wan’Dale Robinson – New York Giants – WR55 in 2023
57. Zay Jones – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR86 in 2023
58. Elijah Moore – Cleveland Browns – WR54 in 2023
59. Quentin Johnson – Los Angeles Chargers – WR76 in 2023
60. Marvin Mims Jr. – Denver Broncos – WR82 in 2023
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.