UFC Vegas 87: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev – 3.2.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 87: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev. There are eleven fights scheduled this afternoon at The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 49-23-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 47-25-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-1-2024 at 11pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 1:30pm EST
Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady -165 vs Loik Radzhabov +130
- Anthony: The card today starts at lightweight with Loik Radzhabov taking on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. While I was higher on Radzhabov upon his entry to the promotion I would say his last performance was his absolute worst. Not only did Radzhabov get finished by Mateusz Rebecki but he also missed the contracted weight limit. Al-Selwady is somebody that I have been enjoying see the past few years. He trains under Sayif Saud at Fortis MMA and seems like a complete product. His jiu jitsu is at a rather high level and the grappling that we see Al-Selwady display should work to great effect here against Radzhabov. He is the stronger fighter and seemingly much more durable. I think Al-Selwady will push a pace in this fight that Radzhabov will fail to keep. He should win by decision but I also like Al-Selwady’s chances of finding a late finish materialize. Rebecki did knock out Radzhabov but that was partially due to fatigue. Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady by Decision
- Nick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over a highly regarded prospect in George Hardwick. Al-Selwady is 15-3 professionally, with eight wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Fortis MMA, and he’s taken on a much higher level of competition than most other debutants. Al-Sewady fights at a very fast pace and he does a good job targeting the weaknesses of his opponents. He has excellent cardio, and he’s already won a five-round fight as a former Fury FC Flyweight Champion. Loik Radzhabov is primarily a grappler. He is a competent technical striker who can be dangerous on the feet, but in most of his wins we see him controlling his opponents both on the mat and up against the cage. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off an ugly KO loss to a very tough opponent in Mateusz Rębecki. While it’s tough to knock him for that loss against such a high level opponent, he looked mostly terrible in that fight and at 33-years old it’s tough to expect he’s making major technical improvements at this stage in his career. Al-Selwady’s durability does seem to be somewhat of a question mark. He’s been dropped against lower level opponents than Radzhabov so it’s difficult to have confidence in him as a favorite here. That being said, Radzhabov hasn’t won a fight via KO since 2021. Additionally, Al-Selwady should have a considerable cardio advantage. This should be a competitive fight and this is a low confidence play, but I expect Al-Selwady can survive early and then take over late here. Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady by Decision
Ludovit Klein -900 vs AJ Cunningham +600
- Anthony: Next we have a scrap at lightweight between Ludovit Klein and AJ Cunningham. This is a short notice booking for Cunningham who steps in for the injured Joel Alvarez. Not many people want to face Klein right now given his recent tear in the octagon. Klein has one bad loss to Nate Landwehr but apart from that his resume is clean, not losing in the three years since then. He has looked impressive against some good young competition and dangerous strikers. His kickboxing is top tier, ending most combinations with his lethal left leg. Having faced such good competition already I certainly hope to see him beat a guy like Cunningham today. Cunningham has lost to the three best fighters on his resume, with all his wins coming against middling foes. His most recent win came facing Justin Lamparez who is now 8-12 as a pro. Klein will find a finish here on his brave challenger. This seems like too much too soon for Cunningham. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO
- Nick: Ludovit Klein is well-rounded and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He has a solid grappling base, and the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots, and his left high kick is as dangerous as any singular strike in the division. He continues to show improvement in his grappling ability, but there is no denying he’s most content to stand and exchange on the feet. AJ Cunningham is making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Joel Alvarez. Cunningham is 11-3 professionally, but most of his wins have come against an extremely low level of opponent. He’s relatively well-rounded and tall for the division. While he can be dangerous offensively, his defensive instincts seem questionable at best. He’s aggressive, but he takes more damage than he should both at striking range and in grappling scrambles. The line is wide here, but I expect Klein to dominate. These two fighters are on completely different levels. Ludovit Klein by Round One KO
Christian Leroy Duncan -375 vs Claudio Ribeiro +280
- Anthony: Here is a fight between middleweights Claudio Ribeiro and Christian Leroy Duncan. Bettors seem to be underrating Riberio a bit after his previous performances. I still view him as a dangerous opponent here in the middleweight division although CLD should be able to outclass him today. Leroy Duncan is very technical, keeping light on his feet and switching stances frequently. He is a great boxer, touching up opponents with more than five significant strikes connecting per minute. The speed and mobility of Leroy Duncan should allow him to control range in this fight and keep Ribeiro from closing the distance. Riberio would be smart to look and score takedowns when they become available here, simply evading the striking prowess of his opponent. Riberio has the power to stop Leroy Duncan on the feet but I do not find it at all likely he connects with the head that clean. Leroy Duncan is very good at staying a moving target and keeping his head off of the center line. If this goes to decision I expect all three judges to favor his work on the feet. Leroy Duncan also has the power to stop Ribeiro. Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision
- Nick: Christian Leroy Duncan is 9-1 professionally, with seven of his wins coming via KO. He’s a dynamic striker who has shown serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He’s extremely athletic with creative flying and spinning attacks in his arsenal. He does an excellent job leading his opponents into traps, and he’s explosive out of breaks. As excellent as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is still a major hole in his game. His only loss came in a fight in which he was outgrappled by Armen Petrosyan, a fighter mostly known for his kickboxing. Claudio Ribeiro has excellent power early in fights, but his defense seems questionable at best. He’s very athletic and there is no denying his power, but in terms of technical ability it seems he’s still far from developed. His reckless style cost him in two of his three UFC appearances, falling via KO to both Abdul Razak Alhassan and Roman Kopylov. While those losses certainly came against dangerous opponents, there is no denying his durability and general defense seem questionable at best. In a fight that is likely to take place on the feet, I have to side with the better technical striker in Leroy Duncan. Ribeiro will be dangerous early here, but I’m fairly confident he’ll start to fade if he can’t find that early finish. Christian Leroy Duncan by Round Two KO
Javid Basharat -900 vs Aiemann Zahabi +600
- Anthony: This is a bout at bantamweight between Javid Basharat and Aiemann Zahabi. While this card has several lines that have swelled out of hand I certainly cannot justify betting on Basharat as a -900. While the undefeated Basharat has certainly looked the part there is no guarantee he goes and dominates this bout. Basharat is looking much better on the feet, showing off his striking last October in a fight with Victor Henry. However, Zahabi is a very skilled kickboxer that win if this becomes a technical back and forth. Basharat will want to use his speed and strong wrestling to test Zahabi’s defenses and limit his offensive success. Zahabi has done a good job defending takedowns but he is not very good at maneuvering once he is downed. Basharat has scored nine takedowns through just five UFC fights. I do expect him to ground Zahabi and convincingly win this bout but there is risk involved taking Basharat in every parlay you build. Javid Basharat by Decision
- Nick: Javid Basharat is a highly regarded prospect, coming into this match-up with an undefeated 14-0-1 professional record. He is 3-0-1 so far in the UFC, most recently recording a No Contest after kicking Victor Henry in the groin. He’s extremely well-rounded, with an advanced understanding of footwork in striking exchanges. He fights long for his frame and throws at a fast and aggressive pace. He’s also an effective grappler, especially defensively as he’s shown to be excellent in scrambles. Aiemann Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards.He’s on a three fight win-streak, coming off an impressive KO win over Aoriqileng, but there is no denying this match-up with Basharat represents a dramatic step up in competition for him here. I do expect Basharat to secure the win here, but this fight should be much more competitive than the line suggests. I wouldn’t represent a bet here, but Basharat should be able to mix in takedowns, outvolume Zahabi, and secure another decision win. Javid Basharat by Decision
Vinicius Oliveira -135 vs Benardo Sopaj +115
- Anthony: This is a short notice booking at bantamweight with Vinicius Oliveira facing Benardo Sopaj. Yanis Ghemmouri had initially been slated to face Oliveira but due to his withdrawal Sopaj took his place. This is a good fighter from Sweden training with a good team at Allstars Training Center. He is a bit of a brawler but Sopaj does have quick hands and effective combination striking. I think Sopaj is a live underdog in this spot but I am hesitant to take him for several reasons. Oliveira has a significant edge over Sopaj in terms of his height and reach. Sopaj seems like someone that could easily fight at flyweight if he did in fact need to. Oliveira will land the much harder shots and much more frequently thanks to his length. I also feel at near pick em odds Oliveira is the bet given he’s trained a full camp for this. Sopaj was preparing for a fight next week too but in Bromma Sweden. Vinicius Oliveira by Round Two KO
- Nick: Vinicius Oliveira will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win over Victor Madrigal on Contender Series. Oliveira is 28 years-old, 18-3 professionally, with fifteen of those wins coming via KO. Oliveira is an extremely powerful striker who seems to do his best work in the pocket. He’s a physical specimen for a bantamweight. His kill-or-be-killed style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also means he can be open to be countered in exchanges. Bernardo Sopaj will be making his own UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Yanis Ghemmouri. Sopaj is only 23-years old and 11-2 professionally. He fights out of a solid camp via Allstars Training Center in Sweden, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Sopaj is likely the more technical striker in this match-up, but Oliveira will likely have a power advantage. This is a close fight between two relatively unproven debutants, but I’m seeing some value in Sopaj as the underdog. He seems to be the more durable fighter in this match-up, which is likely a firefight on the feet. Oliveira will be very dangerous early, but I expect Sopaj can stay out of danger until he finds a finish of his own. Benardo Sopaj by Round Two KO
Eryk Anders -500 vs Jamie Pickett +380
- Anthony: Featured on the prelims will be a tilt at middleweight between Eryk Anders and Jamie Pickett. I cannot say this is a very high level bout with both men under .500 in their UFC career. Pickett has lost four fights in a row and seems likely to be released if he cannot win today. Even with his back against the wall it is tough to bet on Pickett due to a lack of power and fight IQ. Anders makes bad decisions just like Pickett but Anders is at least strong and physically gifted. It may be hard for Anders to close the distance on Pickett but once he does I think we see him take control. Anders is effective at working through clinch positions and utilizing his weight along the cage side. He seems to still be learning here in his late career but adding good weapons to his arsenal. I think Anders will land a lot of kicks on Pickett here and cruise to a decision win. Eryk Anders by Decision
- Nick: As a former Alabama University linebacker, Eryk Anders is a gifted athlete. That being said, he lacks the power you’d expect to see coming from his massive frame. He’s a quality striker in terms of technical ability, but he doesn’t always put out enough volume to win over judges on the scorecards. He has decent wrestling ability, and he is certainly going to be the more powerful and physically imposing fighter in this match-up. Jamie Pickett carries serious power on the feet, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute and he’s starting to develop a reputation as a slow starter. He’s coming off four consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he doesn’t find a win in this spot. It’s difficult to back Anders as such a heavy favorite, but he should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Pickett has decent power, but I don’t expect he’ll find openings to land it. Eryk Anders by Round One Submission
Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Steve Erceg -500 vs Matt Schnell +380
- Anthony: The main card should get off to a great start with flyweights Steve Erceg and Matt Schnell. Through two UFC fights, Erceg has impressed me by out striking opponents and throwing out a high volume of strikes. I like the offensive approach from him, always attacking on the feet or looking to initiate exchanges on the mat. Schnell will be a great foil, looking to engage early and get into it no matter where this fight goes. His boxing is good but I see Schnell struggling for large portions of this fight on the feet. Normally reach is an advantage of his but Erceg has a frame very close to Schnell’s. Erceg also throws many more kicks, landing with both legs from the orthodox stance. His power may not match that of Schnell but I expect to see Erceg fight smart and with this fight convincingly. Schnell does have solid striking defense but it will be a bad visual if he fails to get off any offense of his own. Erceg was properly lined -280 at open. I will not bet him today at a closing price of -500. Steve Erceg by Decision
- Nick: Steve Erceg is 11-1 professionally, with six of those wins coming via submission. Erceg comes in on a ten-fight win streak, coming off a solid decision win over a tough out in Alessandro Costa. Erceg’s striking continues to improve, and while he doesn’t carry much power, he’s technically sound everywhere and capable of putting out a lot of volume. He certainly prefers to grapple, but he’s shown a well-rounded game and his cardio and durability have proven to be strengths at this level. Matt Schnell is sometimes considered a slow starter, but he has underrated power on the feet. His striking is decent, but his offensive grappling is his greatest strength as a BJJ black belt with ten of his sixteen professional wins coming by way of submission. His durability/chin is of major concern, which is likely why this line is so wide in this particular match-up. He has been out of action since December of 2022, following a brutal KO to Matheus Nicolau. Schnell is relatively talented, but his durability at this point in his career is a major concern. I expect Erceg to find a finish here, one way or another. Steve Erceg by Round Two Submission
Umar Nurmagomedov -1400 vs Bekzat Almakhan +775
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Umar Nurmagomedov and Bekzat Almakhan. It has been very difficult for the undefeated Nurmagomedov to get fights as evidenced by this booking. He is ranked after a knockout of Raoni Barcelos and now facing a fighter making his UFC debut. Almakhan is a young fighter with a lot of ring experience, fighting in numerous sanctioned bouts with mixed rules. The competition he is facing is intense, including a common opponent in Sergey Morozov. Unfortunately for Almakhan he is going to be undermatched here facing Umar. Now with vastly improved technical skills, Nurmagomedov will continue to climb toward a championship opportunity. His skillset is complete with great kicks, crisp boxing and a very lethal ground game. It is hard to find value betting Nurmagomedov here but he absolutely feels like a sure thing. I am hesitant to play props on a finish given the durability Almakhan has previously shown off. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
- Nick: Umar Nurmagomedov carries a lot of hype into this match-up, as a former M1 Global Bantamweight Champion and a protege/cousin of Khabib Numagomedov. He’s undefeated at 16-0, and a creative striker with excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks. He’s an excellent wrestler as well, but he has found a lot of success on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and power. Bekzat Almakhan will be making his UFC debut here, he is 17-1 professionally and 26-years old. He’s a talented prospect fighting out of Kazakhstan, with thirteen of his wins coming via KO. He is primarily a striker, who does a good job striking at range. He throws fast and powerful high kicks and it’s safe to expect he’ll have a long career in the UFC. As talented as Almakhan is, Nurmagomedov is going to be the better wrestler and the more dangerous striker in terms of one shot power. Nurmagomedov is defensively sound, and he will be the faster and more explosive athlete here. The line feels a bit ridiculous, but Numagomedov should still dominate. He’s simply the better fighter everywhere. Umar Nurmagomedov by Round One Submission
Muhammad Mokaev -375 vs Alex Perez +280
- Anthony: The featured bout is a flyweight contest between Muhammad Mokaev and Alex Perez. The undefeated Mokaev may be just one win away from a title shot as he looks to extend his perfect record to 11-0 today. At just 23-years-old, the future could not be brighter for Mokaev as he continues to train in and out of fight camp. While he is certainly skilled I have been concerned with Mokaev’s decision making, skating by in his last four matchups while lined as a -400 favorite or higher. Some may consider Perez the better striker in this matchup but I do not necessarily think that is the case. Mokaev ‘s hands are developing quickly and I think his very fast kicks will trouble Perez. He is certainly the more sophisticated grappler with intentions of getting this fight to the mat when he can. While Perez is dangerous, a lack of activity makes me weary to back him here. He has had only one octagon appearance since 2020. Perez also has five pro losses coming by way of submission. Mokaev will be too fast for Perez and likely find a finish once this bout gets to the ground. He is one of my favorite bets today at the current number. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Muhammad Mokaev is a high-level wrestler who can push an aggressive pace for a full three rounds. He is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, and so far in the UFC he is averaging just under seven successful takedowns per fight. He continues to show improvement on the feet, but his greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability as six of his ten professional wins have come via submission. Mokaev is a highly regarded flyweight prospect, born in Dagestan but living and training out of Great Britain. He began fighting as an amateur at just 15-years old, amassing an impressive 20-0 amateur record. He’s 5-0 under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking for his sixth UFC win here against a dangerous vet in Alex Perez. At his best, Alex Perez has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and fights at an excellent pace. Additionally, his calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone in this division. He’s a solid grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. He also does a good job staying out of trouble and finding favorable positions in the scramble. That being said, he has been out of action since July of 2022. He’s one of the older fighters in the division, and he’s certainly been regressing dramatically over the past few years. The line feels a bit wide here, but these are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. This should be competitive early, but I expect Mokaev to find a submission once he takes this fight to the mat. Muhammad Mokaev by Round Two Submission
Vitor Petrino -375 vs Tyson Pedro +280
- Anthony: The co-main event comes at light heavyweight with Vitor Petrino taking on Tyson Pedro. Petrino enters the bout still undefeated, 10-0 with four wins already since joining the UFC. He has looked impressive, imposing his will in the octagon and certainly hitting hard. Pedro has a slight edge in reach here but Petrino connects from range more often landing big overhangs. Pedro is a bit more comfortable when it comes to stringing together tight combinations. I think it is a rather even fight with both men having a great chance at knocking out the other. Each will throw a high volume of kicks and it will be interesting to see which can take more punishment early. Pedro is a slick grappler but he will also need to be keen on defending takedown attempts from the Brazilian. Pedro has defended just 52 percent of opponent takedowns. I agree that Petrino should be favored in this spot but at these odds I will take my chances with Pedro. They share two common opponents and when it comes to the unbeaten fighters on this card, Petrino and Gaziev are most susceptible to seeing that zero go.Tyson Pedro by Round One KO
- Nick: Petrino is somewhat untested, but there’s no denying his overall athleticism or his power in striking exchanges. Seven of Petrino’s ten professional wins have come via KO. He’s almost always aggressive early in fights. His cardio was a weakness for him earlier in his career, but he has shown major improvements in that facet of his game. He is 3-0 in the UFC coming off a solid KO of Modestas Bukauskas. As impressive as he’s been, there is no denying this match-up represents a considerable step up in competition for him here. Pedro is a dangerous striker, a very talented BJJ practitioner and one of the better grapplers on the roster at 205 pounds. He’s coming off a solid KO win over Anton Turkalj, but Petrino is by far the best striker he’s faced across the past few years. Pedro may be the more technically sound fighter in this match-up, but his cardio and durability seem questionable at best. I don’t like the line, but I do see Petrino as the rightful favorite. I expect he can pull away after weathering an early storm. Vitor Petrino by Round Two KO
Shamil Gaziev -200 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +160
- Anthony: The main event is a good scrap at heavyweight with Jairzinho Rozenstruik facing Shamil Gaziev. Gaziev is an undefeated prospect, fighting out of and representing the Kingdom of Bahrain. Eleven of his twelve wins have come by finish with Gaziev usually brutalizing opponents with his heavy hands and pressure. For a heavyweight his pacing and volume is very good. Gaziev is getting a start on his career a bit late at 34 but he has plenty of time left to score big wins in this division. Rozenstruik is quite the matchup given his dynamic power and technical kickboxing skills. Rozenstruik is always volatile to bet on or against with most fights ending quickly. I could certainly see him clearing the unproven Gaziev, but stylistically the matchup does not seem great for him. Rozenstruik would prefer more space to work than the small Apex cage allows. Gaziev will quickly close the distance in this bout and work both clinch strikes and some grappling. He is bigger than Rozenstruik and likely will make that presence felt. Gaziev seems like the right side in this one but I hesitate betting him at now -200. Shamil Gaziev by Round Two KO
- Nick: Shamil Gaziev is undefeated professionally at 12-0, and eleven of those wins have come via finish. He’s relatively well-rounded with one shot KO power, a solid wrestling base and decent BJJ. That being said he sometimes leaves himself there to be countered on the feet, he’s far from athletic, and his cardio seems to be a major weakness if his fights are extended. He’s a prospect on the rise in a shallow heavyweight division, but this is a dramatic step up in competition for him here against Rozenstruik. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a decorated kickboxer who is most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. This is a very linear match-up in that Rozenstruik should dominate if he can keep this fight standing, but he’s going to be in massive trouble if Gaziev takes him down. A low confidence pick given the general volatility of heavyweights, but I do expect Gaziev can find the takedowns he needs here. He should be able to pull this off via submission or ground-and-pound. If he can’t find that early finish, Rozenstruik will be a very live underdog. Shamil Gaziev by Round Two Submission
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com