UFC Atlantic City: Blanchfield vs Fiorot – 3.30.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Atlantic City: Blanchfield vs Fiorot. We have a great Fight Night card here this evening live from Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 79-43-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 75-47-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-29-2024 at 8pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST
Caolan Loughran -380 vs Angel Pacheco +290
- Anthony: The card today opens with bantamweight action as Angel Pacheco will face Caolan Loughran. This is the second UFC appearance for Loughran who lost his debut to Taylor Lapilus last fall. Loughran had found a lot of success prior in Cage Warriors and now looks to put forth a more complete effort here in his sophomore showing. He has good power for a bantamweight and also does well implementing his offensive wrestling as needed. I could see Loughran opting for takedowns here in this fight against Pacheco. Representing the New England Cartel, Pacheco is always looking to box and let his hands do the talking. While Pacheco landed nearly 200 strikes in his Contender Series appearance, he absorbed a whopping 213. Pacheco has very poor striking defense and I worry about him here against a hard hitter like Loughran. Pacheco has a reach advantage in this bout but Loughran does a good job effectively closing the distance. I feel confident predicting a win here for the Irishman but I do not plan on betting him as such a heavy favorite. Caolan Loughran by Round Two KO
- Nick: Caolan Loughran is 8-1 professionally, with all but one of those wins coming via finish in the first or second round. He’s coming off the first loss of his career in his UFC debut, falling in a competitive decision to a tough out in Taylor Lapilus. At 27-years old he continues to improve. He’s a pressure brawler who seems most content fighting on the feet. He has an impressive highlight reel, but his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. He’s an underrated wrestler that generally uses his grappling to neutralize dangerous strikers. In this particular match-up, that exact gameplan will likely present his clearest potential path to victory. Angel Pacheco will be making his UFC debut here, as one of the only fighters ever offered a UFC contract in spite of a loss on the Contender Series. He is 32 years-old and 7-2 professionally. He’s a brawler in nature, and his outstanding durability is the main reason he’s being given this opportunity. Loughran is going to have a major strength advantage here, especially with Pacheco moving down a weight class. I expect Loughran to be the better fighter no matter where this one goes, but his grappling advantage should be significant. I expect he can ground Pacheco here and grind him out for a submission. Caolan Loughran by Round Two Submission
Jacob Malkoun -250 vs Andre Petroski +200
- Anthony: This is a fight at middleweight between Jacob Malkoun and Andre Petroski. Malkoun was -600 in his last octagon appearance and looked it before losing due to disqualification after connecting with an illegal elbow. He is a real problem in this division given his elite grappling and immense pressure in top position. Malkoun has landed a total of 31 takedowns through his last five fights. Petroski is comfortable when it comes to jiu jitsu but I see him struggling against the blackbelt. Malkoun was the winner of the ADCC Asia Trials in 2019. He is going to beat Petroski in most scrambles and certainly keep his neck protected at all times. Petroski’s best chance of winning here comes on the feet where his advantage is really minimal. Neither man has very fast hands or efficient offensive attacks. Malkoun should end up controlling this bout, sticking to Petroski like a wet blanket. Jacob Malkoun by Decision
- Nick: In many ways, these are two very similar fighters. They both prefer to grapple, they both shoot for takedowns relentlessly and there are questions that need to be answered regarding both of their striking abilities. Given Malkoun was the 2019 ADCC Asia trials winner and a 2019 Pan Pacific gold medalist in Jiu-Jitsu, his grappling success at this level shouldn’t be surprising. He’s coming off a loss via DQ in a fight that he was dominating (via strikes to the back of the head vs. Cody Brundage). He is 7-3 professionally and continues to flash major improvements everytime we see him in the cage. Andre Petroski is a decorated collegiate level wrestler who mostly leans on his powerful grappling to overwhelm and discourage his opponents. He has shown KO power on the regional scene, but he telegraphs his strikes, which means in most matchups he’s best suited to lean on his grappling ability. He is 4-1 since joining the UFC, most recently falling via KO in a fight against Michel Pereira that he took on short notice. Petroski does have a powerful wrestling base, but against a grappler like Malkoun he’s going to struggle to employ that gameplan here. Petroski can be dangerous on the feet, but I expect Malkoun to work behind his jab until he frustrates Petroski and ultimately finds a late finish on the mat via ground-and-pound. Simply, I see Malkoun as the better fighter here and both of these guys have extremely similar styles. Jacob Malkoun by Round Three KO
Melissa Gatto -140 vs Victoria Dudakova +115
- Anthony: This is a compelling fight at women’s flyweight with Melissa Gatto set to face Victoria Dudakova. The undefeated Dudakova seems like a good fit for the promotion, already 2-0 since joining the UFC. She is a very talented fighter with confidence in her standup skills. Gatto seems like the fighter more inclined to search for takedowns here but it would not surprise me to see either woman look to bring this fight to the mat. Dudakova is not quite as big as Gatto but it appears her punches land with more vigor and ferocity. Gatto is a bit less reliable defensively but she could end up outscoring Dudakova with the consistent volume that she throws. Although Gatto does seem like the rightful favorite in this spot I am going to take my chances on the underdog. Dudakova is a decent bet here at plus money, likely bringing this fight to a decision if she does not find herself a finish first. Victoria Dudakova by Decision
- Nick: Melissa Gatto lands more than four significant strikes per minute, but she’s primarily a grappler. She struggles at times to get her opponents to the mat, but she has advanced BJJ ability and she can be very dangerous off her back. She is 8-2-2 professionally, coming off close decision losses to Ariane Lipski and Tracy Cortez. There is a chance she’s fighting to hold her roster spot here, and there is certainly no denying this match-up with Dudakova represents a considerable step-down in terms of level of competition. Dudakova is 8-0 professionally and only 25-years-old. She’s decent on the feet, but most comfortable in grappling exchanges as four of her eight professional wins have come via submission. She has already secured two UFC wins, over Istela Nunes and Jinh Yu Frey. However, this match-up with Gatto represents a major step up for her in terms of level of opponent. I could see this fight going either way, but I do expect Gatto’s strength and general experience to keep her a step ahead. Melissa Gatto by Decision
Ibo Aslan -130 vs Anton Turkalj +110
- Anthony: This bout is a rematch between Ibo Aslan and Anton Turkalj. It’s the UFC debut here for Aslan who is 12-1 as a professional. The lone loss on his resume came four years ago when Turkalj submitted him in Brave FC. Aslan is a serious power threat, boasting heavy hands even for a light heavyweight. His boxing combinations land nice and tightly, giving him a clear edge over Turkalj while this fight is on the feet. While Turkalj enters this bout on a three fight losing streak, his performances as of late have been much better. He could certainly win as the underdog in this spot as evidenced by the first booking of these two. Aslan is not very efficient when grappling, making this a fight that favors Turkalj when it does hit the mat. Turkalj is also going to be the better fighter late here, winning round three if he were to get there. Aslan has not proven to have late round cardio and for that reason I wouldn’t trust him as a betting favorite. Still, I expect Aslan to land a big shot early and get revenge against The Pleasure Man. Turkalj will offer little resistance to him on the feet. Ibo Aslan by Round One KO
- Nick: Ibo Aslan will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive win via KO over Paulo Renato Jr. in the Contender Series. He is 12-1 professionally, with all of his wins coming via KO. He’ll be looking to avenge his only loss of his career here against Anton Turkalj, a fighter he fell to via submission back in 2020 when both were fighting for Brave CF. Anton Turkalj has decent power on the feet, but most of his success has come in grappling exchanges. He mostly wrestles to control position, but he can also be dangerous on the mat, as two of his eight professional wins have come via submission. He’s coming off three straight losses under the UFC banner, and he’s likely to be cut from the promotion if he can’t get back into the win column here. Ibo Aslan is the far more dangerous striker in this match-up, but his grappling ability and cardio are questionable at best. Coming off a KO loss, I question Turkalj’s durability here. Ibo Aslan by Round One KO
Dennis Buzukja -120 vs Connor Matthews +100
- Anthony: This is a featherweight contest between Dennis Buzukja and Connor Matthews. These fighters will garner plenty of crowd attention with Matthews, a member of New England Cartel, facing Buzukja who trains in New York with Ray Longo. Matthews earned his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series despite having a rather thin professional resume. The striker has very well developed boxing and improved grappling skills since shifting his training five years ago. Buzukja is somebody that I like rooting for with his strong offensive wrestling and sustained pressure. His reckless style has cost him in a few recent fights but I favor him in this matchup with Matthews. He has the better grappling and in this fight I think he will execute takedowns as needed. I do not mind betting on Buzukja here in what is really a must win for him. Dennis Buzukja by Decision
- Nick: Dennis Buzukja is 11-4 professionally, coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. At his best, Buzukja does an excellent job landing shots out of breaks and if he can close distance here he’s going to be dangerous in exchanges. He fell via KO to Jamall Emmers his last time out, but his cardio and durability have generally been strengths for him here to this point in his career. Connor Matthews will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win by decision over Jair Farias. He’s 7-1 professionally and 31-years old. He fights out of a solid camp via New England Cartel under Tyson Chartier. He’s well-rounded offensively, but finds most of his success on the mat as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. This is one of the lowest level match-ups that can be made in the featherweight division. I’ll back the slight experience advantage for Buzukja here to edge this one out on the scorecards. Dennis Buzukja by Decision
Julio Arce -400 vs Herbert Burns +300
- Anthony: This is a matchup at featherweight with Julio Arce set to face Herbert Burns. Arce fought most recently at bantamweight but historically he has performed well at 145 pounds. He is far more technically skilled than Burns who is not anywhere near the striker that Arce is. While Arce tends to fight to the level of his opponent, he can generally be relied upon for steady output and a hard fifteen minutes. Arce has very crisp boxing and an arsenal of other attacks that he can use to finish his combinations. Burns is a very large underdog in this fight but that is understandable given his recent showings. His last octagon appearance was a bad loss to Bill Algeo that saw Burns completely gas in early round two. The fight prior to that was a knockout loss suffered all the way back in 2020. Perhaps Burns has reinvented himself and improved on this long hiatus, but I am not going to bet on it. Arce should win this fight comfortably. Julio Arce by Round Two KO
- Nick: Herbert Burns is the younger brother of top welterweight contentender Gilbert Burns. He’s primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ black belt with eight of his eleven professional wins coming via submission. He is coming off back-to-back losses and he has been out of action since July of 2022. Given his lack of success and general activity, there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the promotion if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Julio Arce is very quick in exchanges. He has impressive technical ability on the feet and he defends an impressive 69% of the strikes thrown against him. He has notable Wins over the likes of Dan Ige and Julian Erosa, but he’s coming off a loss to Montel Jackson and he has been out of action since November of 2022. Simply put, Arce has an outstanding 95% takedown defense in the UFC. Burns’ only chance here will be to take this fight to the mat and find an early submission, but I’m confident in Arce’s ability to keep things standing. Julio Arce by Round Two KO
Lupita Godinez -220 vs Virna Jandiroba +180
- Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup with Lupita Godinez set to face Virna Jandiroba. This seems like a classic matchup testing wrestling against Brazilian jiu jitsu. Godinez relies on her wrestling to win fights, scoring more than one takedown per round on average. She is very good at timing her entries and staying on top of opponents once they’re grounded. Jandiroba often hunts for takedowns of her own but she may be content to work off of her back in this fight. These two may also elect to trade on the feet rather than test their strengths against the other’s. Godinez puts forth more consistent volume striking while Jandiroba is the more powerful puncher. However, Jandiroba is not very skilled technically and often uses her strikes as a means of closing the distance. Godinez’s last two losses came against much better strikers than this. I think she will do just fine in this style of fight, facing a woman who is eager to compete on the mat with her. Lupita Godinez by Decision
- Nick: Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than 3.3 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but she absorbs nearly as many strikes as she lands. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. She’s on a four fight win streak and carries a lot of momentum into this match-up. Virna Jandiroba is most comfortable on the mat as a decorated BJJ black belt, but her entries for takedowns and her general wrestling ability can leave a lot to be desired. Virna Jandiroba is more than willing to eat punches to throw them. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her cardio has mostly held up at the UFC level. Her striking isn’t very refined, but she throws frequently enough to keep most of her opponents on the defensive. I do see Godinez as the rightful favorite here, but Jandiroba’s strengths could make this an extremely volatile match-up. I’ll take a shot on the underdog to score the upset. Virna Jandiroba by Decision
Jamall Emmers -190 vs Nate Landwehr +155
- Anthony: The featured prelim comes at featherweight between Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. We should get an exciting matchup here as is often the case when Landwehr is competing. Emmers is a very well developed striker but he is going to need a close to perfect fight to win this today. Emmers thrives in controlled striking environments where Landwehr conversely does best when his fights become chaotic. I expect we see Nate applying pressure here, closing the distance on Emmers and looking to engage in clinch positions whenever he can. Landwehr is content to exchange on the feet with Emmers but his boxing is far less technically sound. I think Emmers should do well here keeping Landwehr on the end of his punches but if he is sticking around late in this fight, he’s of course live to take over. Landwehr has an exceptional gas tank and more grit than Emmers does. He is a live underdog but I will not be betting him in this spot. Jamall Emmers by Decision
- Nick: Emmers is a rangy striker with surprising power for his frame. He’s decent on the feet, but he’s also a cerebral wrestler who has shown he can takedown a wide range of opponents. The one major knock on Emmers is his fighting IQ. He almost always seems to be winning fights early until he makes questionable decisions and gives them away. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Dennis Buzukja. Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s dangerous everywhere offensively, but his fighting IQ has put him in dangerous positions in the past. Emmers will have physical advantages here, but I do see Landwehr as the value side here. He should be competitive on the feet, and while Emmers is the better wrestler I do see a scenario in which he can score the upset via opportunistic submission. Nate Landwehr by Round Two Submission
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Chidi Njokuani -145 vs Rhys McKee +120
- Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight contest between Rhys McKee and Chidi Njokuani. McKee did not look great in his return to the UFC last fall but overall I like his recent body of work. McKee really has dominated all of the competition he faces in Cage Warriors. Skeletor is a problem for lower volume strikers as he continues to connect with punches thanks to his long reach. His boxing combinations are fluid and McKee normally builds as fights go late. Njokuani has questionable cardio while McKee has proven before he is capable of fighting for a hard five. Njokuani is a serious power threat and I fear he could knock out McKee early. However, this fight will sway further into McKee’s favor for as long as it goes. At +120 I think he is a good bet. Rhys McKee by Round Three KO
- Nick: Chidi Njokuani is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he has decent BJJ as well, but he is certainly most comfortable when his fights stay standing. He has since turned in a 2-5 record in the UFC, and he’s likely to be cut from the promotion if he can’t get back into the win column here. McKee is only 27-years old, but this is already his second stint in the UFC. He fell to tough competition in Khamzat Chimaev and Alex Morono before he was cut in 2020. He has since secured three straight wins via finish for Cage Warriors, and most recently he fell in a hard fought decision to another tough young fighter in Ange Loosa. McKee has a long frame, but his best striking takes place in the clinch. He has a solid chin and he’s very durable, but he sometimes waits for fights to come to him and his defensive grappling is average at best. This should be a competitive match-up, but I do see Njokuani as the rightful favorite. McKee will be live for the upset if he can survive early, but I’m not confident in his ability to do so against such a gifted striker in Njokuani. Chidi Njokuani by Round One KO
Bill Algeo -250 vs Kyle Nelson +200
- Anthony: Next is a featherweight matchup between Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson. This was a tough fight for me to pick as I struggle to read Nelson. He looked very good in his last octagon appearance, upsetting Fernando Padilla. Nelson is nothing spectacular but he is reliable on defense and generally still around as fights start to go late. Algeo is not a significant power threat but he is the more technical striker when compared to Nelson. In this fight I expect Algeo to get the jab working and we will see him outlanding Nelson in most exchanges. Nelson can score in the clinch or with timely takedowns but it will be hard for him to really impress the judges. He is a bit stronger than Algeo physically but I do not expect that to be evident in this fight. If Algeo stays alert and on his bike he should be able to cruise his way to a third straight victory. Bill Algeo by Decision
- Nick: Bill Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt, but at times he spends too much time on his back chasing submissions. He’s certainly capable of fighting at a very high-level, but at 34-years old there is a chance we start to see a decline in his speed and durability. Kyle Nelson is a powerful striker, but fairly unconventional in his approach. He has flashed decent power, but mostly against mediocre competition. He’s often there to be countered in exchanges due to his hyper-aggressive style. He usually comes out strong, but we do see him fade at times if he can’t put his opponents away early. Nelson is underrated in general, but I do expect Algeo to have him covered here. Algeo should be able to strike at range and I expect he can weaponize his cardio as this fight wears on. Bill Algeo by Decision
Nursulton Ruziboev -220 vs Sedriques Dumas +180
- Anthony: I am expecting a thrilling fight here at middleweight between Sedriques Dumas and Nursulton Ruziboev. Both athletes are quite a handful to deal with boasting great height and reach for 185 pounds. It’s rare that Dumas is outsized in this division but Ruziboev is the taller man by three inches. The Uzbek had a great debut in the promotion, stopping Brunno Ferreira in the very first round. He is a veteran of more than 40 professional fights and extremely skilled in all areas. Ruziboev has great control of distance when striking and very powerful hands. He will have a decisive advantage over Dumas if and when this fight hits the ground. Dumas could win if this ends up being a kickboxing match but Ruziboev will likely want to drag this fight to the mat. Dumas has shown a deficiency in his ground game and a strong grappler like Ruziboev can likely make quick work of him there. Ruziboev is aggressive in top position and very successful when it comes to completing kimuras and armbars. He is a purple belt under Daniel Gracie. Dumas also spent time in jail earlier this month after arrest for felony battery charges. This is one of many times Dumas was arrested in Pensacola. His tenure in the UFC could be cut short if he continues to find himself in legal trouble. I also could see Dumas’ performance suffering if he has not been working as seriously as he should throughout this fight camp. Nursulton Ruziboev by Round One Submission
- Nick: Sedriques Dumas is an athletic striker whose long reach allows him to pick his opponents apart at a distance. He does a decent job moving in and out of range, he mixes elbows into his combinations well, and he has shown he can place a timely counter with fight-ending power. He’s decent on the mat with a strong choke series, but his takedown defense is mediocre at best. He is 9-1 professionally, and 2-1 in the UFC. Nursulton Ruziboev is coming off a solid KO win in his UFC debut, securing a win over Brunno Ferreira back in July of 2023. He is 35-8-2 professionally and only 29-years old. He has a long frame for the division and he’s a dangerous striker offensively. He’s primarily a grappler with twenty professional wins coming via submission, but outside of his UFC debut he really hasn’t taken on much in terms of top level competition. This is a volatile match-up between two unproven fighters. That being said, I do see Ruziboev as the rightful favorite. He’s the better technical striker here, and the much better grappler. As long as he doesn’t gas himself out, he should have Dumas covered everywhere. Nursulton Ruziboev by Round One KO
Bruno Silva -220 vs Chris Weidman +180
- Anthony: The featured bout is a contest at middleweight between Bruno Silva and Chris Weidman. This will be an emotional night for the former champion Weidman, fighting at home in New Jersey. It is inspiring to see Weidman back in competition after breaking his leg but at nearly 40 years old, his body is no longer holding up great. His last performance against Brad Tavares was not the best technical showing. Weidman also made a career off his exceptional wrestling, something that has not been evidenced in his recent fights. Silva is a skilled enough jiu jitsu practitioner to keep Weidman honest here on the mat. I think his striking is much better than that of Weidman, landing with more power and certainly a lot more speed. Both men enter competition today on 1-4 skids but Silva seems to be fighting higher level competition. Silva will land some big knees on Weidman and look like the much better striker in this fight. I would love to see ol’ Weidman get the win but I do not like his chances of pulling the upset. This will likely be his last UFC fight. Bruno Silva by Round Two KO
- Nick: Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with twenty of his twenty-three professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. At his best, Silva is very dangerous offensively. However, he’s been wildly inconsistent in the UFC which is evident by his 4-4 record within the promotion. Even at his advanced age, Chris Weidman is one of the better offensive wrestlers in the division as a two-time NCAA Division I All-American. Weidman held the Middleweight Championship from 2013-2015 after capturing it from UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva. As decorated as he is, there is no denying the fact that Weidman is far past his athletic prime, having undergone multiple surgeries and recently turning 39-years-old. He’s coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career, and with a poor showing in this match-up there’s a chance we see him retire here in front of his home crowd. Weidman will have a massive wrestling advantage here, but at this point in his career I don’t expect he can stay safe as he closes distance to look for takedowns. The price is a bit out of hand, but Silva should be able to score a KO here and send Weidman into retirement. Bruno Silva by Round One KO
Vincente Luque -110 vs Joaquin Buckley -110
- Anthony: The co-main event comes at welterweight with Vincente Luque set to face Joaquin Buckley. This appearance comes on rather short notice for Buckley who is stepping in for the injured Sean Brady. I would argue that Buckley is the more consistent of these two. He is always forcing opponents to retreat as he throws intelligent combinations with above average power. His fundamental kickboxing is solid and Buckley can end anybody’s night if his hooks begin to land. Luque has better pure boxing than Buckley but cedes him a defensive advantage. We have seen Luque eat a lot of clean shots in his career and it concerns me watching him draw into another power threat. His last loss came against another southpaw when he faced Geoff Neal. Luque probably spent most of this camp grappling in preparation for a bout with Sean Brady. He has a decisive advantage over Buckley in terms of his jiu jitsu. Perhaps we see Luque hunt for takedowns here after scoring eight of them in his last appearance. I like his chances of beating Buckley a lot more here if he is successful taking him off his feet. It is going to be a very close fight if these two do stand and exchange blows. Vincente Luque by Decision
- Nick: Vicente Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true KO power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He’s known for his excellent durability, willingness to eat shots in exchanges, but as a 31 fight veteran, he’s going to need to learn to fight more conservatively if he’s going to extend his career. Luque is coming off a solid win via decision over Rafael dos Anjos, but Luque had a major size advantage in that match-up. Here against Buckley he’s going to be the smaller and slower fighter. He has technical advantages both on the mat and the feet, but he is worn for a 32-year old as he’s been in countless wars. In spite of his recent inconsistencies, it seems the UFC is still behind the marketing and promotion of Joaquin Buckley. He’s far from a developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing the majority of his skills, but at just 29-years old he should continue to improve. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. That being said, he seems overly hesitant at times, he is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. Buckley is coming off solid wins over Andre Fialho and Alex Morono, but there is no denying this match-up represents a considerable step up for him here on short notice. This is a low confidence play as Luque is far past his prime, but I do expect he’ll stay a step ahead of Buckley here. He’s the better technical striker, the much better grappler, and there is no denying he’s been tested against a far better level of opponent. Vincente Luque by Decision
Erin Blanchfield -200 vs Manon Fiorot +160
- Anthony: This should be a great fight between Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. This matchup will determine which of these two women gets the next flyweight title opportunity. Blanchfield enters having won nine fights in a row while Fiorot is on a streak of thirteen consecutive wins. The time is now for Fiorot to make a title run having just turned 34 years old. Blanchfield still has many fights ahead of her, the younger athlete by ten years. I have no doubt that Blanchfield will win a title in the near future but this is going to be a tough matchup for her stylistically. Although Blanchfield is a very talented striker I do not expect her to keep pace with Fiorot while this fight is on the feet. Blanchfield will need to secure takedowns in order to earn the victory. While Blanchfield is averaging nearly one takedown landed per round, Fiorot combats that with near perfect takedown defense. Fiorot has stuffed 11 of 12 shots on her since joining the promotion. I also trust her to fight through bad positions here against an opponent in Blanchfield that does not have lethal jiu jitsu or immense top pressure. Fiorot seems like the value side here in what will likely be a close matchup. I think she will score much more consistently than Blanchfield when it comes to her offensive striking. With these odds steaming heavily into Blanchfield’s favor I will have a sizable bet on the underdog. Manon Fiorot by Decision
- Nick: We have an excellent women’s match-up here between two top contenders at flyweight. Erin Blanchfield is coming off impressive wins over Tailia Santos, Jessica Andrade, Miranda Maverick and JJ Aldrich. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and plodding when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. She continues to make considerable improvements as she’s only 24-years old, and many have her pegged as a future champion at 125 pounds. Fiorot is primarily a striker. She times her kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. She looked outstanding her last time out in a win over Rose Namajunas, picking her apart at striking range. While I don’t really like the price, I do see Blanchfield as the rightful favorite. Fiorot is the much better striker in this match-up, but Blanchfield should be able to find takedowns here over the course of five rounds. Erin Blanchfield by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com