UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera II – 3.9.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera 2. This event is one of the year’s most stacked with a killer main card live from Miami Florida. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 56-27-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 54-29-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-7-2024 at 7pm EST
Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST
Maryna Moroz -240 vs Joanne Wood +190
- Anthony: Opening the card is a fight at women’s flyweight between Maryna Moroz and Joanne Wood. This could very well be the last fight in the career of Joanne Wood who enters 16-8 as a professional. She is looking to avenge one of those losses here after losing her UFC debut to Moroz back in 2015. Neither one of these girls are too high level but Wood has made a career of beating some less than talented opponents. She’s a high volume striker that engages often, and throws potent offense in the clinch. She is going to struggle at distance here striking with Moroz who is quicker and more precise. Moroz is also better at implementing offensive grappling compared to Wood. She is the rightful favorite here but I am not looking to get invested at these odds. It seems likely to be a fight that goes to decision. Maryna Moroz by Decision
- Nick: Maryna Moroz is an experienced vet, having fought under the UFC banner since April of 2015. She is 11-4 professionally. Moroz has shown considerable improvements in her grappling over her last few fights, but she’s recorded back-to-back losses against tough outs in Karine Silva and Jennifer Maia. Moroz throws a lot of volume on the feet, but her accuracy sits at a mediocre 31%. It’s somewhat surprising that she’s only 32-years old when you consider her extensive resume. Joane Wood has a solid thai-clinch and is a solid striker overall. She has more power than a lot of the other girls in this division, but her volume is what usually helps her win when her fights hit the scorecards. She comes into this fight off of a solid win over Luana Carolina, but there are rumors she could be retiring regardless of the outcome in this fight. Moroz has the better cardio in this match-up, and it’s tough to back Wood knowing this could be her final professional fight. Additionally, I do expect Moroz to have a massive advantage if this fight hits the mat. There is always some volatility in women’s MMA at this level, but Moroz is the rightful favorite. She should be able to outmuscle wood here and ultimately work her to the mat for a finish. Maryna Moroz by Round Three Submission.
Asu Almabaev -450 vs CJ Vergara +350
- Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Asu Almabaev and CJ Vergara. This should be a competitive contest with a lot of action from the jump. Almabaev is a solid prospect from Kazakhstan, largely showcasing some very good offensive grappling. He is quick to secure takedowns when he does shoot and normally works urgently to keep his opponents grounded. Vergara is a fighter that usually finds himself defending shots and that will again be the case here today. Vergara has proven good at fighting back to his feet but not necessarily adept at stuffing traditional shots. Almabayev will spend a large portion of this bout in control of Vergara. While Vergara will likely land the better offensive strikes here I do not see him overcoming the dominance of Almabyev. This guy seems like a very strong flyweight with the ability to beat most of his unranked peers. Asu Almabaev by Decision
- Nick: Assu Almabaev is coming off a win in his UFC debut via submission of Ode Osbourne. He regularly trains with top welterweight contender, Shavkat Rakhmonov. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and impressive durability and cardio. He is 18-2 professionally, and widely considered a prospect to keep an eye on in spite of the fact he made his promotional debut at 29 years old. CJ Vegara is an interesting prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He is 3-2 so far under the UFC banner, coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2021. He’s decent everywhere, but he’s gotten by on exceptional durability and cardio more than any standout offensive skill. His UFC record is solid, but he’s only found success against lower level strikers. In this match-up, I expect Almabayev’s grappling advantage to be the deciding factor. He should dominate Vergara on the mat and justify this wide price. Assu Almabaev by Round Two Submission.
Robelis Despaigne -325 vs Josh Parisian +260
- Anthony: The UFC debut of Robelis Despaigne will come here at heavyweight against Josh Parisian. Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in taekwondo and a specimen here in this division. He stands 6’7 with a whopping reach of 87-inches. Despaigne will tower over Parisian in this bout and certainly look to overpower him in the early going. He is a very technical striker that is not afraid to engage early and connect with big looping strikes. Despaigne’s reach is so long that some shots tend to connect on the back of his opponent’s head. Parisian will only have value in this spot if he can outlast Despaigne and extend into a round two or three. Despaigne’s previous three fights were finished in a combined 19 seconds. Do not blink for this one as a quick knockout is very likely. I will have action on Despaigne getting it done inside of one. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO
- Nick: Robelis Despaigne will be making his UFC debut here with a 4-0 professional record. Each of those wins have come via first round KO. At 35-years old he’s getting a late start to his MMA career, but he’s a black belt in taekwondo and even won a bronze medal in the 2012 London Olympics. Despaigne is extremely athletic for a heavyweight. He has a ridiculous 87” reach, he throws massive strikes from intelligent angles and he generally does a good job frustrating his opponents behind his range. Josh Parisian throws a lot of spinning attacks, which is a strange thing to see from a heavyweight. These moves can be effective, but he also compromises his gas tank if he can’t put his opponents out early. He is 15-7 professionally and 2-4 in the UFC, but his UFC wins came over opponents that have since been cut from the promotion. Parisian has a path to victory if he can get his grappling going early here, but I’m not confident in his ability to close the distance against Despaigne to secure takedowns. This feels like a set-up fight for Despaigne in front of a crowd with a lot of Cuban support. He should roll here. Robelis Despaigne by Round One KO.
Michel Pereira -150 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +125
- Anthony: This should be a good scrap at middleweight with Michel Pereira taking on Michael Oleksiejczuk. Pereira looked great in his move up to middleweight last fall, stopping Andre Petroski in just over a minute. Pereira has always been an aggressive striker but perhaps having a more focused approach to fights has benefited him. Pereira is very good at moving laterally and landing offense while advancing forward. He fits into the weight class quite well and appears to have improved cardio without cutting such drastic weight. Oleksiejczuk is consistent in each fight, reliant on landing big shots from southpaw with his very quick hands. Oleksiejczuk lands very heavy combos but he often becomes less dangerous as fights begin to get late. He can certainly turn out Pereira’s lights here but it seems more likely that we see him get extended. Pereira can implement his grappling if needed to slow the pace of this fight and ensure Oleksiejczuk stays under control. His kicks and long range weapons should also play a factor in getting ahead of Hussar. Michel Pereira by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Michel Pereira is like a video game character in the way he flips around the ring. He’s one of the most entertaining fighters to watch, but his Fight IQ is always in question. He likes to throw ridiculous looking spinning kicks and he’s been known to backflip onto his opponents for pretty much no reason. This can put an unnecessary dent in his gas tank, but he does have strong striking ability and he has shown a solid chin against decent competition. He is now on an impressive six-fight win streak, and it seems he’s growing more intelligent in the cage from fight to fight. Michal Oleksiejczuk has serious KO power and he does a good job putting consistent pressure on his opponents. Additionally, he has developed a reputation as a fast starter with a lot of quick finishes. Oleksiejczkuk has shown a propensity to fade late in fights, but he’s always dangerous early. He’s most recently coming off an impressive KO of Chidi Njokuani, but there’s no denying this match-up represents a considerable step up in competition for him here. Oleksiejzuk will be dangerous early here, but I expect Pereira to stay safe until he outclasses him as he starts to fade. Michel Pereira by Round Two KO.
Ion Cutelaba -130 vs Philipe Lins +110
- Anthony: The featured prelim is a showdown at light heavyweight between Ion Cutelaba and Philipe Lins. I have struggled for a while picking this fight given the volatility of both athletes. Lins will finally get some respect from me after now winning three straight bouts. I never rated the Brazilian’s skills all that highly but it is clear there have been improvements in his boxing and overall comfort fighting on this stage. He’s certainly bigger than most 205ers and enjoying a slight reach edge over Cutelaba here today. We should get a car crash right as this bout begins with Cutelaba rushing to close the distance. He will likely test the takedown defense of Lins in this spot which has thus far been perfect through five showings in the UFC. I am not convinced that Cutelaba gets down Lins but I do think the early pressure from Ion makes this into a short fight. Lins will be forced to throw offense and lower his hands, causing me to expect a knockout one way or another. Cutelaba has more quick fights on his resume and I’d expect him to have a small edge if that is the style fight we see play out. It is not at all a confident pick. Lins could beat Cutelaba with clinch work and boxing if this gets into the second or third round. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO
- Nick: Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so it’s no surprise he’s now fighting at 205 lbs at the UFC level. Nine of Lins’ sixteen professional wins have come via KO. He’s coming off a solid decision win over Maxim Grishin and he’s on a three fight win streak for the first time since he won the PFL title in 2018. Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. This is a volatile match-up as both of these fighters are potent finishers. This feels close to a coinflip, but I do find myself siding with Cutelaba. Lins’ recent win streak has come against conservative and measured opponents. Cutelaba is anything but that. If he can’t find a quick finish he’ll be in trouble, but I do expect he will. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO.
Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST
Kyler Phillips -210 vs Pedro Munhoz +170
- Anthony: This should be a fun scrap at bantamweight between Kyler Phillips and Pedro Munhoz. Phillips is a product of The MMA Lab and close training partner for the headliner Sean O’Malley. He has really looked solid in every showing thus far racking up wins over middle of the pack competition. Munhoz represents a small step up in opponent for Phillips having shared the cage with dozens of killers before. He’s now 37 years old but still putting forth great effort in his fights and keeping things competitive with some of the division’s best. He connects at a higher rate than Phillips and has much better boxing in the pocket. Phillips is more diverse with his offensive attacks and willing to take fights to the mat if needed. I think grappling could earn the victory for Phillips here against an opponent that is smaller and apt to give up his back. It is going to be a risk betting Phillips if he does intend to engage Munhoz for long on the feet. I want to see Phillips staying on the outside in this bout and utilizing his reach to an advantage. He should be able to outscore Munhoz but this could end up being a very close decision. Munhoz tends to fight just as well in round three as round number one. Kyler Phillips by Decision
- Nick: Kyler Phillips throws diverse strikes and does a good job using feints to bait his opponents into powerful shots. Additionally, he is very athletic with a good gas tank and scrambling ability. He throws exciting and versatile spinning attacks, but he is also dangerous on the mat as a Carlson Gracie BJJ Brown belt . No matter where his fights go, he seems talented enough to find success against a wide range of opponents. He’s coming off back-to-back wins, including an impressive decision over a tough out in Raoni Barcelos. Pedro Munhoz has notable wins over Rob Font, Jimmie Rivera, and Chris Gutierrez. He’s extremely well-rounded with a solid wrestling base and surprising power for a bantamweight. In his most recent win over Gutierrez, he did an excellent job leaning on his grappling to control the pace of the fight. He did a good job mixing in leg kicks to close distance on Gutierrez and secured takedowns frequently and consistently. His most recent fight resulted in a loss to card headliner Marlon Vero, a fight in which he was mostly competitive for the bulk of the three rounds. Munhoz has never been KO’d professionally, and he should have a cardio advantage in this match-up. Phillips will be a justified favorite if he can pace himself and keep this fight at range, but I’m finding more value on the underdog here. Munhoz has a durability and cardio advantage, and in spite of his age, he’s been facing much tougher competition. This is a low confidence play, but I’m taking a shot on the underdog in a narrow decision. Pedro Munhoz by Decision.
Mateusz Gamrot -450 vs Rafael Dos Anjos +350
- Anthony: Here we have a lightweight contest between Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael dos Anjos. It shows how stacked tonight’s event is having the former champion Dos Anjos this far down the prelims. RDA still has the talents to beat most upper echelon lightweights but I fear this matchup is a stylistic nightmare for him. Gamrot has averaged more than one takedown landed per round since joining the UFC. He is a very strong grappler who can relentlessly shoot on his opponents. Fighting out of the southpaw stance also gives Gamrot easy entry to his opponent’s lead leg. While I certainly feel this fight will be closer than the betting odds suggest I have to side with the rising Gamrot here. Dos Anjos has had numerous fights in his career where takedowns completely kill his offense. Strong grapplers can generally keep RDA on the mat after converting their initial takedowns. I expect to see him blanketed for a large portion of this bout. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision
- Nick: Mateusz Gamrot is an excellent chain grappler with a wide range of effective takedown entries. He does an excellent job getting low in pursuit of single legs. He has ridiculous cardio, a solid chin, and excellent instincts both scrambling and in striking exchanges. While he doesn’t really have true one-punch knockout power, he lands meaningful strikes that force his opponents to respect him no matter where the fight goes. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Rafael Fiziev and Jalin Turner. Rafael Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but extremely talented on the mat as an advanced BJJ black belt. He does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers and his striking is more technically advanced than the majority of his opponents. He’s a former champion, with notable wins over Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, and most recently, Brian Barberena. He’s old for the division at 38-years-old, but he’s still a very durable fighter with excellent cardio and a very high fight IQ. While I do see Gamrot as the rightful favorite in this match-up, the price has gotten absolutely ridiculous. I’m tempted to make a play on the underdog out of principle, but as far as a straight fight pick goes I do see Gamrot edging it out. Mateusz Gamrot by Decision.
Maycee Barber -200 vs Katlyn Cerminara +160
- Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Maycee Barber and Katlyn Cerminara. Barber is somebody that the promotion seems to have taken a liking towards, placing her on numerous large cards as she climbs the ranks. The 25-year-old has a bright future ahead, adding to her skillset and developing quite a bit from fight to fight. Her win streak is currently five with victories last year over Amanda Ribas and Andrea Lee. Cerminara will make this a close fight if these two are hesitant to engage. She does her best work striking on the outside and looking to win via points. Barber will hopefully press the action here and engage with Cerminara in the pocket. She should have the advantage of strength over Cerminara and win positions on the mat and in the clinch. Most of this fight should feature Barber scoring points in close and swaying the judges. Maycee Barber by Decision
- Nick: Maycee Barber was once a highly regarded prospect who hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She has since regained some of her hype and momentum as she’s strung together five consecutive wins. She most recently secured an impressive ground and pound KO over a tough out in Amanda Ribas. She is still primarily a striker, but her grappling has improved dramatically over her last few fights. Katlyn Cerminara is well-rounded with an effective point-striking style. She doesn’t cause a ton of damage, but she fights smart – peppering opponents at range and letting the fight come to her. She’s most comfortable fighting on her feet. She has outstanding footwork and can put out solid volume. Her grappling continues to show improvements, but she’s been out of action since she suffered a tough decision loss to a highly regarded prospect in Manon Fiorot. Cerminara is live to pull off the upset here, but in her media day interviews she’s described she’s been going through extensive fertility treatments. I’m far from a medical expert, but hearing this is enough of a red flag for me to back the younger and more aggressive fighter here. Maycee Barber by Decision.
Jailton Almeida -120 vs Curtis Blaydes +100
- Anthony: The featured prelim comes at heavyweight between Jailton Almeida and Curtis Blaydes. This booking had previously been slated for a November main event before Blaydes had withdrawn. Almeida instead fought Derrick Lewis that evening and won convincingly yet again. The Brazilian is a scary fighter, boasting the best jiu jitsu in the division. He has filled into his massive frame here at heavyweight after previously fighting as low as 185 pounds. I think while Almeida’s size has not cost him yet it may be a factor in deciding the bout today. Blaydes figures to be the much bigger fighter and likely strong enough to roll with Almeida on the mat. Blaydes’ wrestling is some of the division’s best and he will give Almeida a much tougher fight than the strikers he has been facing. I trust him to defend well against the single and double leg takedown that Almeida normally relies upon. Almeida is a decent striker but I do rate Blaydes more dangerous when it comes to kickboxing. Blaydes is much more measured in his attacks and reliant on fundamentals compared to Almeida’s wild approach. I am picking Blaydes here at near even odds expecting him to stop the surging Almeida. Blaydes will land concussive ground and pound on Almeida if he can maneuver into top position at any point here. We have yet to see Almeida forced to alter his approach when Plan A is not working for him. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO
- Nick: Jailton Almeida is coming off dominant wins over Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He’s extremely explosive and athletic with solid striking ability and outstanding BJJ. Almeida has shown excellent takedown entries, weight control and sweeping ability. He has dominated most grappling exchanges so far in the UFC and he has shown a very high fight IQ since he signed with the promotion. He’s dangerous everywhere, and he does an excellent job exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents. Jailton Almeida is undefeated in the UFC, and he hasn’t lost a fight since 2018. As exceptional as he’s been, there is no denying the fact this match-up with Curtis Blaydes represents a major step up for him in terms of level of competition. Blaydes is primarily a wrestler and one of the best heavyweights in the world in terms of grappling ability. He has excellent takedown entries and averages more takedowns per minute than any other heavyweight in UFC history. He continues to show considerable improvements on the feet, which will likely be important for him here against another talented grappler in Almeida. This is a very tough fight to call, but I find myself siding with Almeida. He looked excellent at weigh-ins coming into this one and Blaydes shows a surprisingly low 33% takedown defense. If this stays on the feet, Blaydes will likely find a KO. However, I expect Almeida to be the one forcing the grappling here. This should be a fun and competitive fight for however long it lasts. Jailton Almeida by Decision.
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Petr Yan -120 vs Song Yadong +100
- Anthony: The main card opens with former bantamweight champion Petr Yan facing rising contender Song Yadong. This should be a very competitive fight largely contested in the realm of boxing and kickboxing. I find it to be a good buy-low opportunity with Yan entering on a streak of three consecutive losses. He may be starting to lose a step but Yan’s boxing is still some of the best in the UFC. He rolls with shots well on his high guard and on average Yan makes opponents miss on 59 percent of their attempted strikes. Yadong may not land the volume that Yan does in this fight but he does hit as hard if not harder than Petr. Yadong has been very active the past few years and earning a lot of quality wins. I still consider Yan among the elite at bantamweight so it will be another challenge for Yadong here as he looks to crack the top five. I am hopeful that Yan can avoid a slow start here and outsrike Yadong over the course of three rounds. He should land the better shots in this fight and score timely takedowns if he does start to fall behind. It is an easy pick for me at near even odds. Petr Yan by Decision
- Nick: Petr Yan is a sniper on the feet. He eats some shots to set up bigger ones, but his combinations are what make him so dangerous. He does an excellent job weathering early pressure from his opponents as he processes their timing and habits. He takes in this information and then uses it to trap his opponents and exploit them with his own devastating offense. Petr Yan is one of the more dangerous and pure strikers in the division. He throws powerful leg kicks, a snappy jab, and he does an excellent job stringing together lengthy combinations. His defensive grappling is better than average, but he’s coming off three consecutive losses for the first time in his career. Song Yadong has serious power in his strikes with nine of his twenty-one professional wins coming by way of knockout. He’s an effective striker that does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow the momentum of his opponents. Primarily a striker, we have seen Yadong continue to improve on his grappling ability. These improvements are likely a result of the fact he’s been training out of Team Alpha Male (a camp loaded with talented wrestlers). These are two similar fighters and Song Yadong will have a size advantage here, but I see Yan as the crisper boxer and the more likely of the two to implement his grappling if he needs to. Petr Yan by Decision.
Jack Della Maddalena -180 vs Gilbert Burns +150
- Anthony: Next is a contest at welterweight between Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena. This is a good test for Della Maddalena who has thus far gone 6-0 since joining the UFC. The Australian prospect has extremely fast hands, boasting exceptional boxing fundamentals and an offensive mindset perfect for the sport of mixed martial arts. The past two fights for Maddalena were a bit underwhelming with him fighting to split decision with both Kevin Holland and Basil Hafez. I expect to see an improved version of him here with a rather linear path to victory in this fight. Burns is of course a dangerous jiu jitsu practitioner and a real threat when he is able to get opponents down to the mat. He will look to implement his grappling here against Maddalena who is the far superior striker. Burns poses a power threat throwing big looping hooks but he will not be able to compete for prolonged periods standing. Della Maddalena’s quick hands and extended combinations will tear up Burns rather early. I think this will be the performance that launches Maddalena up the ranking at 170. I have not picked against him in any UFC appearance yet and at these odds he seems like a good bet again. Jack Della Maddalena by Round Two KO
- Nick: Gilbert Burns is an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ ability. His striking continues to improve every time we see him fight, but he is looking to ground his opponents in most of his match-ups. He has nine professional wins via submission and seven via KO. He’s been competing against the class of the division, but there is no denying he’s in the twilight of his career. Jack Della Maddalena has shown highly technical striking ability in his short UFC tenure. He has excellent head movement and footwork, surprising power, and while his grappling hasn’t been tested extensively at this level, it seems he’s competent on the mat as well. He is coming off six straight wins under the UFC banner, but there is no denying this match-up represents a major step up for him in terms of level of competition. Della Maddalena does an excellent job mixing in body shots to set up head strikes and his pressure and volume is difficult for most of his opponents to endure. That being said, if he overexerts himself it could open up opportunities for Burns to score takedowns on him. This is an extremely linear fight, which is why I’ve been going back and forth on this pick all week. Burns will be very live for an upset if he can get his grappling going, but if he can’t Maddalena is going to completely pick him apart on the feet. Another low confidence play, but I’ve decided to take a shot on the underdog here. Maddalena has been taken down against far worse grapplers than Burns. Gilbert Burns by Decision.
Kevin Holland -130 vs Michael Venom Page +110
- Anthony: The featured bout should be a good one at welterweight with Kevin Holland welcoming in Michael Venom Page. For most of the past decade Page has been competing at Bellator and finishing his fights with style. He is a black belt in kickboxing and one of the best karate practitioners in mixed martial arts. He is effective from both stances, quick with getting his kicks up high and landing precision attacks from range. His point fighting style can be difficult to deal with, especially for more of a brawler like Holland. MVP spent his early career crushing cans but as of late the competition he has faced is much better. Holland will be a good test given his durability and size here at welterweight. Holland struggled against Wonderboy Thompson in a similar stylistic matchup and if Page is on point here tonight, I see this bout playing out the same. Page will land timely counters off these Holland attacks and hunt for the shot that can put his lights out. It is a near pick’em fight for good reason but I like MVP’s chances of finding himself a knockout win. Michael Venom Page by Round Two KO
- Nick: Kevin Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight. Michael Venom Page will be making his UFC debut here, having spent most of his professional career fighting for Bellator. He is 21-2 professionally, most recently scoring a leg kick KO win over Goiti Yamauchi back in March of 2023. Page is a gifted striker who fights out of a wide karate style stance. He throws a lot of feints to set up his power shots. He has power in all of his limbs, fights well behind his length/reach, and he generally does an excellent job countering and fighting off his back foot when he needs to. Twelve of Page’s professional wins have come via KO. This is a very tough fight to call as Holland is only a justified favorite if he grapples. Page is the better technical striker, so this fight likely comes down to Holland’s willingness to pursue takedowns. It’s very tough to bet on either side of this one, but I’ll pick Holland in hopes he grapples. Kevin Holland by Decision.
Benoit Saint-Denis -220 vs Dustin Poirier +180
- Anthony: The co-main event is a five round contest at lightweight between Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint-Denis. This is a pivotal fight in the 155 pound rankings as Saint-Denis looks to cement his name in the title picture. A win over Poirier would be quite the scalp added to Saint-Denis’ already very impressive resume. The French fighter has won five in a row by finish after a short notice UFC debut. He is a complete fighter with underrated submission grappling skills and very heavy hands. Saint-Denis should have an advantage over Poirier in terms of both size and strength. Poirier will look to engage Saint-Denis here with his boxing and while Dustin is far more technical, it will be hard for him to control this bout for a full five rounds. Saint-Denis seems to have exceptional cardio and a lot of great intangibles when the cage door locks. The man is not only super durable but also a hyper aggressive fighter that will unload on opponents as soon as they start to slow down. Poirier should look better than these odds suggest in a fight solely contested on the feet but there is a clear edge grappling here for Saint-Denis. Poirier has lost three times before by submission and I could see him tapping out of this bout if things are not going his way. Styles make fights and unfortunately I think Poirier has his hands full with this one. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Benoit Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off five straight wins under the UFC banner, and he enters this fight with an impressive 13-1 record professionally. On the feet, he works well behind a powerful body kick. He is an aggressive striker who has shown excellent durability, and his excellent cardio generally supports his torrid pace. Dustin Poirier is a crisp boxer with an excellent understanding of angles. He throws fast combinations, and he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as a fight wears into the middle and later rounds. He has notable wins over Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor, Dan Hooker, and Max Holloway, but he’s been out of action since he was brutally KO’d via head kick to Justin Gaethje back in July of 2023. Poirier is going to be dangerous, but I don’t see him matching Saint-Denis in terms of speed or accuracy on the feet. He could catch Saint-Denis with something in a barrage, but it’s very rare we see Saint-Denis fail to defend against powerful strikers. This is a tough fight to call, but I’m siding with the favorite. I’ll be concerned if he can’t find an early finish, but Saint-Denis should be able to dictate where this fight goes early. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two KO.
Sean O’Malley -280 vs Marlon Vera +220
- Anthony: The main event is a rematch at bantamweight between Marlon Vera and Sean O’Malley. The Suga Era continues tonight with O’Malley defending his title for the very first time. It was a killer knockout of Aljamain Sterling that earned O’Malley the belt and I am happy to say I have backed him from the start. He might be the promotion’s best striker and it seems like we will see a very active title reign out of him. There are very few bantamweights that can deal with his size or handle his power. O’Malley cracks hard but just as importantly he lands with precision. His combinations are going to come out much cleaner than those of Chito Vera. O’Malley will switch stances to keep distance with Vera here while mixing in some kicks of his own. O’Malley’s only career loss came to Vera when a kick sent him to the canvas with an injured leg. It was a fluke win and while Vera will throw more low leg kicks today, we certainly will not see the same result. He will be engaging a lot more with his hands early in hopes of hurting O’Malley. Vera will eat a lot of jabs on his high guard and look to land counters off of that. O’Malley’s exceptional speed and footwork should keep him out of range as Vera looks to engage. The larger octagon here will benefit O’Malley, compared to the 25’ cage when they first fought. His movements remind me of Prince Naseem when boxing. I think that his style matches up well with Vera’s, a striking disciple of Jason Parillo. O’Malley will land more shots from outside than Vera does, marching forward and applying constant pressure. I could see him finishing Chito but the most likely outcome is a decision win for Sean. I am excited to see his kickboxing on display here over the course of a full five round fight. Vera will have his moments but I expect him to get out struck and significantly damaged engaging O’Malley where he is best. And Still. Sean O’Malley by Decision
- Nick: Sean O’Malley is extremely fast and agile on the feet with phenomenal overall striking ability. He is defensively sound, and he does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has an excellent +3.74 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. O’Malley most recently KO’d Aljamain Sterling to capture the bantamweight championship. He hasn’t lost a fight since he last took on Marlon Vera, where he suffered what many consider to be a “freak injury” where his peroneal nerve gave out following a Vera leg kick. Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. I expect O’Malley to pull away early in this one, but he’ll need to be careful in managing his gas tank. He’s the quicker and more accurate striker, but if he starts to fade Vera could be a problem for him late. While I don’t like the price I expect O’Malley to secure a decision here, out throwing and outlanding the challenger. And Still. Sean O’Malley by Decision.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com