UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Royval II – 2.24.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Royval 2. Tonight we have a great slate of fights in Mexico City with plenty of great Mexican talent on display. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 40-20-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 36-24-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-24-2024 at 1am EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Muhammad Naimov -550 vs Erik Silva +400
- Anthony: The card today begins with the fight between Muhammad Naimov and Erik Silva. While Naimov is a massive favorite in this spot the hype certainly does seem warranted. Debuting in the UFC last year, the fighter from Tajikistan has already earned two impressive wins in the promotion. Elite wrestlers could prove to be problematic for Naimov but Silva’s grappling is not that good. While I expect Silva to initiate clinch positions and hunt for chokes, Naimov will stay composed here and win most if not all exchanges on the feet. The high altitude in Mexico City will certainly play a factor tonight in testing the cardio of all these athletes. Naimov’s home gym is Elevation Fight Team in Denver so he will certainly be accustomed to competing in the thin air. I expect him to push a pace that Silva struggles to keep up with. His combinations are better than Silva and I expect Naimov to land big counters after Silva’s takedown attempts get stuffed. Muhammad Naimov by Round Three KO
- Nick: Muhammad Naimov is 10-2 professionally, coming off impressive wins over Nathaniel Wood and Jamie Mullarkey. Now 2-0 in the UFC, Naimov was a heavy underdog in both of those match-ups. Naimov is well rounded with four wins via KO and three via submission. He fights out of an excellent camp via Elevation Fight Team. He is an explosive striker offensively, but he sometimes chases big shots. This can leave him open to be countered, but it is certainly notable that he has never been finished professionally. Silva is 9-2 professionally and he’s been out of action since December of 2022. He was finished in his UFC debut, falling via submission to TJ Brown. At his best, Silva is a talented grappler with creative and dangerous BJJ. He has surprising strength for a featherweight. His striking is far from refined, but he has explosive power, especially at range and coming out of breaks. Silva is 36-years old and he hasn’t been very active. The line is wide here, but Naimov should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. I expect he’ll have a considerable cardio advantage, which should come into play as long as he survives early. Muhammad Naimov by Round Two KO
Felipe dos Santos -300 vs Victor Altamirano +240
- Anthony: Next on the card is a bout at 125 pounds between Felipe dos Santos and Victor Altamirano. This should be a great scrap setting pace for the night with a lot of punches thrown. Altamirano is a consistent striker, landing on average five significant strikes per minute. He is effective from both stances and excellent when his boxing starts to get going, stringing together very clean combinations. Altamirano does not hit nearly as hard as dos Santos but I am not expecting a finish anyways here at flyweight. It was a promising debut for Felipe dos Santos but he fights a bit recklessly. His style mimics the classic form of Chute Boxe Diego Lima. Dos Santos holds a Thai stance while moving forward aggressively, blasting heavy kicks and powerful shots toward his opponents. While I do give him an edge over Altamirano it is hard to justify him being so heavily favored. I am not sure a hyper aggressive style like his will pay dividends fighting at such high altitude. To pull off the upset, Altamirano will throw with more consistent volume here and build in rounds two and three. He will need to survive an early barrage and hopefully stay on his feet here facing the dangerous Brazilian. Victor Altamirano by Decision
- Nick: Felipe dos Santos is 7-1, fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil. Like many of his Chute Boxe teammates, dos Santos is extremely aggressive and dangerous both on the feet and on the mat. He’s coming off a loss in his UFC debut, but he gave an excellent showing of himself on short notice against a top contender in Manel Kape. Dos Santos is only 23-years-old, so it’s safe to expect he continues to make major improvements from fight to fight. Victor Altamirano has a solid body-lock takedown and decent BJJ, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself in striking exchanges and leaves himself open to be countered. Altamirano can be dangerous here, but it seems likely he’ll be outmuscled by the explosive dos Santos. The line is wide as these are two developing prospects, but I see dos Santos as having more paths to victory. Felipe dos Santos by Decision
Luis Rodriguez -120 vs Denys Bondar +105
- Anthony: More flyweight action is next with Luis Rodriguez set to fight Denys Bondar. This is the UFC debut for Rodriguez who enters the promotion with a record of 15-2. His resume is solid for a 24 year old with a lot of good cage time accrued. The wins aren’t too notable for Rodriguez but he is consistently performing well and his losses have come by narrow decision to the best names he has faced. Bondar is a bit one dimensional in his striking and eager to bring fights to the mat when he can. I am expecting a lot of high energy scrambles in this bout as Bondar looks to engage with Rodriguez on the ground. This is a very tough fight to pick but I think Rodriguez does end up outworking Bondar. Not only is he at an advantage training in Coatzacoalcos but Rodriguez is also seven years younger than Bondar. As this bout gets into its latter half I expect him to build significantly and perhaps find a late finish. Bondar failed to last three rounds at The Apex in his last loss versus Carlos Hernandez. Luis Rodriguez by Decision
- Nick: Bondar is well-rounded with eleven of his sixteen professional wins coming via submission and five coming via KO. He’s coming off back-to-back losses under the UFC banner, but he’s given a decent showing of himself in spite of those results. Bondar has surprising power for his frame on the feet, a piston of a left hand, and he usually does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a torrid pace. Luis Rodriguez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off five straight wins on the regional scene. He is 15-2 professionally and only 24-years old. Seven of his wins have come via KO and four have come via submission. Rodriguez is decent everywhere, but most of his career has been fought at bantamweight. He’s moving down to flyweight here for his UFC debut. Rodriguez’s last loss came in the Contender Series, where many felt he was robbed via decision against Jerome Rivera. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a shot on him as the underdog here in front of his home crowd. Bondar looked absolutely terrible at weigh-ins. Luis Rodriguez by Round Three KO
Fares Ziam -210 vs Claudio Puelles +175
- Anthony: This is a bout at lightweight between Fares Ziam and Claudio Puelles. It is a classic matchup between grappler and striker with Ziam looking to put on display his kickboxing skills. He won in both of his previous showings, comfortably beating both Jai Herbert and Michael Figlak. Puelles is a very high level grappler but as evidenced in his last fights, scoring takedowns is a problem. Through seven appearances in the UFC, Puelles has only converted a third of his attempted shots. Dan Hooker picked apart Puelles, making him look like an amateur in their bout last November. Ziam, like Hooker, is a lengthy striker that will give Puelles a lot of problems at range. Puelles is live for the win by submission but otherwise this is certainly going to be Ziam’s fight to lose. I think he cruises to a decision win here, outlanding Puelles by a significant margin. Fares Ziam by Decision
- Nick: Fares Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 14-4 professionally, coming off back to back wins over Jai Herbert and Michal Figlak. While he doesn’t carry much power on the feet, he puts out solid volume and does an excellent job forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling ability is somewhat questionable, but it seems to be a part of his game he’s been focusing on improving. Puelles recently changed camps to Kill Cliff MMA, one of the best gyms in the sport. He is a dangerous BJJ black belt, but mostly one dimensional. He’s been out of action since November of 2022, following a brutal KO loss to Dan Hooker. Puelles, while talented, hasn’t shown an ability to win fights if he can’t get his grappling going. Pulles’ BJJ is dangerous, but I expect he’ll struggle to ground Ziam given his lack of wrestling ability. Ziam will be in trouble if this fight hits the mat, but I expect he can pick Puelles apart at range and keep this standing. Fares Ziam by Decision
Edgar Chairez -450 vs Daniel Lacerda +360
- Anthony: This is a rematch between Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda. While this matchup had been scheduled for flyweight, both men hit the scales heavy yesterday. Lacerda was first reported to have been overweight, likely causing Chairez to relax and stop his cut. Lacerda was going to be 0-5 in the promotion before his bout with Chairez was overruled to a no contest. Chariez had Lacerda in a fight ending choke but the referee had called the bout prematurely. An awful gas tank has cost Lacerda on numerous occasions given his frantic fighting style. He is a high volume striker training out of Chute Box Diego Lima. He utilizes muay thai and explosive kicks to pressure opponents and search for a finish as soon as the fight clock begins to wind. I like Lacerda’s aggression and ability to switch stances but he will again melt the later this fight goes. Chairez is a very crisp boxer who despite that had the edge grappling against Lacerda. He should win this fight today but there is no value left nearing -500. Edgar Chairez by Round One Submission
- Nick: This fight represents a rematch of No Contest (premature stoppage) of a fight that took place back in September of 2023. Chairez had Lacerda in a standing guillotine, but the referee stopped the fight before Lacerda was unconscious. As a result, we’re getting the exact same match-up here. Edgar Chairez is 10-5 professionally, who gained notoriety for a hard fought loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. His two most recent wins have come via submission. In spite of those results, Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable. Daniel Lacerda usually comes out extremely aggressive and he can be effective early, but he tends to give fights away after he wins the first round. He has decent power for a flyweight, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to have much in terms of defensive wrestling ability. He is coming off four consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and he’ll likely be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Lacerda will be live for a quick upset finish here, but as long as Chairez survives that early storm he should pull away. This is a dangerous price, but I do see Chairez as the rightful favorite. Lacerda is dangerous, but his lack of cardio and durability have proven to be costly at this level. Edgar Chairez by Round One Submission
Mateus Mendonca -120 vs Jesus Aguilar +100
- Anthony: Next are flyweights Mateus Mendonca and Jesus Aguilar. This should be a fun matchup and as the odds indicate a very close fight. Mendonca is another fighter representing Chute Boxe Diego Lima on this card. I am a fan of his aggressive style and constant pressure, but Mendonca is not as effective at flyweight compared to 135 pounds. He looked terrible in his last appearance against Nate Maness, completely melting in the very first round. I expect a more technically skilled fighter like Aguilar to take advantage of Mendoca in this spot. Aguilar seems much more ready for the long haul in his fights compared to Mendonca. His boxing is solid but he is also better on the mat than the Brazilian. A finish should materialize if Mendonca cannot seize early control. Jesus Aguilar by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Mendonca is extremely aggressive, fighting out of a camp that promotes that style via Chute Boxe in Brazil. He is coming off back-to-back losses under the UFC banner, but coming into the promotion he was a highly regarded prospect as a training partner of Charles Oliviera. Mendonca is dangerous everywhere, but it seems he prefers to chase submissions when he fights upper-level competition. He’s dangerous on the mat, but he’s overaggressive in most exchanges which leaves him open to be countered and damaged. Jesus Aguilar is 9-2 professionally, coming off an impressive win via KO of Shannon Ross. He’s a decent striker and relatively athletic, but his grappling is his greatest strength as six of his nine professional wins have come via submission. This is a very low level match-up, so my confidence in predicting the outcome is also low. That being said, I like the value of Aguilar here. He’s solid enough on the mat that he should be able to stay out of danger early. I expect he can catch Mendonca for a knockout as he ultimately weaponizes his cardio. Jesus Aguilar by Round Two KO
Raoni Barcelos -175 vs Christian Quinonez +145
- Anthony: The prelims close with this bantamweight fight between Christian Quinonez and Raoni Barcelos. Barcelos is the sizeable favorite in this spot despite losing four of his previous five appearances. The future does not look very bright for Barcelos but at 36 he is still holding up well for a bantamweight. He is tremendously skilled, pairing good boxing with high level wrestling and Brazilian jiu jitsu. Barcelos strings together combinations well and fights more technically sound than the opposing Quinonez. I expect him to teach this young man a lesson if we do in fact see this fight hit the mat. While standing I expect Quinonez to be the quicker and more explosive fighter of these two. Barcelos is gritty but he will struggle kickboxing for three rounds with Quinonez. The savvy veteran should find takedowns early in this bout and put Quinonez into uncomfortable positions. Barcelos has a great single leg takedown that we have yet to see Quinonez successfully defend. Quinonez also has a bad habit of exposing his back for the taking. Barcelos is one of my most confident picks today. Raoni Barcelos by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Raoni Barcelos was once considered by many to be a future top contender in this division. He’s extremely well rounded as a third-degree black belt in BJJ whose striking is as creative as it is dangerous. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks, which he mixes in well with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. As talented as he is, there is really no denying that he is not as dangerous or effective as he was just a few years ago. At 36-years old, he’s now one of the older fighters in the division. He is coming off back-to-back losses, but both losses came to opponents far more advanced than his opponent in this match-up. Quinonez is fairly well-rounded, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top-level competition. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Kyung Ho Kang via submission. Quinonez throws powerful strikes and he has offensive upside in grappling exchanges, but defensively it seems his skills are still far from refined. Quinonez will have a power advantage here, which could be enough to score him an upset as Barcelos’ durability has started to regress. Regardless, I expect the experience of the Brazilian to shine through. He’s the better fighter defensively and we’ve seen him succeed at a much higher level. Raoni Barcelos by Decision
Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST
Manuel Torres -200 vs Chris Duncan +160
- Anthony: The main card begins with a lightweight matchup between Manuel Torres and Chris Duncan. This fight may be a bit of a car crash with one potent finisher meeting another. Torres has seen all but one of his sixteen fights end inside of the distance. Since entering the promotion Torres has already scored knockouts for his highlight reel over Frank Camacho and Nikolas Motta. Duncan seems to be a step up in competition for Torres but not necessarily a bad stylistic draw. Duncan has been utilizing his wrestling to good effect lately although he often prefers to engage on the feet. While his power does match that of Torres there are some issues in terms of Duncan’s defensive awareness. His head gets cracked way too often, usually not moving off the centerline. Torres will be looking to chin Duncan early and I like his chances of doing so. I will not bet on Torres in this spot for fear of the unknown if Duncan can extend him. Torres sees most of his fights end in round one and will struggle if Duncan can score takedowns and wear on him. Manuel Torres by Round One KO
- Nick: Manuel Torres is dangerous on the feet offensively, but he eats a lot of damage in exchanges. He’s on a five fight win streak, all via first round finish. He is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off an impressive KO over Nikolas Motta. Torres’ kill-or-be-killed style is the reason he carries so much momentum into this match-up, but there is no denying it makes him a volatile fighter to back as a favorite. Duncan has one-shot KO power on the feet, but similar to Torres is often open to being countered in exchanges. Duncan is 11-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Having recently shifted camps to American Top Team, it’s encouraging to see Duncan fighting with more of an intelligent game plan and leaning more on his wrestling lately. This is especially important given the questions surrounding his durability. Torres is going to be the aggressor early here and I have trouble trusting Duncan’s questionable chin. This is a volatile match-up, but I see Torres as the pick. Manuel Torres by Round One KO
Yazmin Jauregui -650 vs Sam Hughes +450
- Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight between Sam Hughes and Yazmin Jaregui. After beating up Jaqueline Amorim her last time out, Hughes is back today looking to turn away another exciting prospect. She is not the most skilled fighter but Hughes if nothing else is gritty and durable. Normally Hughes will march forward and pressure her opponents but matching Jaregui’s volume will be a challenge. The young Mexican has very crisp boxing and some exceptionally fast hands. As a large favorite her last time out, Jaregui did suffer her first career loss after getting KOd in under thirty seconds. Hughes does not pose a real threat in terms of power so I do not expect a similar result here in Jaregui’s bid to bounce back. I think Jaregui will light up Hughes with a high volume of strikes today. She will look to keep this bout standing for as long as she is able, picking apart Hughes with her superior hands and footwork. Yazmin Jauregui by Decision
- Nick: Jauregui is 2-1 in the UFC and a former Combate Global Strawweight Tournament Champion. She is 11-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. She is only 24-years old, but she’s already a highly skilled striker with excellent pressure and power. She’s coming off her first career loss, a brutal KO to Denise Gomes. However, her opponent in this match-up is unlikely to pose a similar power threat. Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and relatively durable. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any stand out skills. She’s coming off a solid decision win over Jaqueline Amorim, but Amorim dominated her early before she completely gassed out. She is 8-5 professionally and while she has shown improvement in all facets of her game, it’s tough to expect she’ll ever climb the ranks of 115 lbs.I expect Hughes can keep this close early, but as the fight wears on Jauregui’s technical advantages should shine through. She is the better striker both offensively and this fight should mostly take place on the feet. Yazmin Jauregui by Decision
Raul Rosas Jr -240 vs Ricky Turcios +195
- Anthony: This is a matchup at bantamweight between Raul Rosas Jr and Ricky Turcios. The 19-year-old Rosas will certainly be a crowd favorite today fighting here in Mexico City. He has a long way to go in terms of his professional development but already Rosas has shown off great technical skills. His offensive grappling is very clean and being so small and quick makes him a nightmare when it comes to taking backs. His wrestling has also been getting better with Rosas averaging more than one takedown landed per round. Turcios is a good offensive grappler too but his jiu jitsu is not as lethal as the young Rosas. In this fight Turcios will want to keep the feet and use his jab and distance striking to keep Rosas from moving forwards. While his hands are much better than Rosas, Turcios does not have significant power. He will land at a much higher clip than Rosas but I do not expect we see significant damage add up. Eventually Rosas will get Turcios grounded and forced to defend his chokes. I expect this to be a very close decision if the judges’ scorecards are in fact needed. Raul Rosas by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Rauld Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He’s 8-1 professionally, coming off a KO win over a low level opponent in Terrence Mitchell. Prior to his win over Mitchell Rosas suffered the first loss of his career, falling to a tough out in Christian Rodriguez. In that loss, he did a poor job pacing himself. After Rodriguez managed to stay out of danger early, Rosas faded quickly and was then dominated for the bulk of the three rounds. Turcois is a highly aggressive and an extremely creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. All this being said, he’s failed to impress at the UFC level. He’s 2-1 in the promotion, but he’s taken on low level opponents and he’s been out of action since November of 2022. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. Turcios carries a terrible 45% takedown defense in the UFC, but he has never been submitted professionally. Rosas Jr. is understandably the favorite here in front of his home crowd, but I’m not confident in his ability to finish Turcious and I do expect Turcios to have the better cardio. Similarly to Rosas’ fight against Rodriguez, I expect he’ll look great early here but won’t be able to put Turcios away. At that point, I expect the tide to turn and Turcios to pull off the massive upset as the underdog. Ricky Turcios by Round Three KO
Daniel Zellhuber -275 vs Francisco Prado +250
- Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup between Daniel Zellhuber and Francisco Prado. Golden Boy Daniel Zellhuber certainly has a bright future ahead of him at just 24 years old. He is developing quickly with the team at Xtreme Couture and evolving with each and every passing fight. He surprisingly won his last bout via submission over the veteran Christos Giagos. Zellhuber is known for his striking and exceptional muay thai. He uses his length very well and benefits from an eight-inch edge in reach here today. Prado is going to have a very tough time closing the distance with his short arms and avoiding knees in the clinch from Zellhuber. Prado is powerful and a real threat no matter where this fight goes but I expect him to struggle to string together persistent attacks. His offensive output will be stymied here by the movement and defense of Zellhuber. Prado will also fail to score takedowns if he does in desperation look for those shots. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
- Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but his stock took a major hit in his UFC debut where he lost a convincing decision to Trey Ogden. He has bounced back nicely since, recording solid wins over vets in Lando Vannata and Christos Giagos. He continues to make major improvements from fight to fight, but as talented as he is he is still somewhat rough around the edges. All of Prado’s wins have come via finish. He is 12-1 professionally, coming off an impressive KO of Ottman Azaitar. Prado fights aggressively, especially early in fights. He’s more than content to exchange in a ‘fire fight’, but his defense can be compromised as a result. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown entries are fairly predictable and it’s become increasingly rare we see him lean on his grappling. This line is too wide as Prado is very live for an early KO. That being said, it seems more likely Zellhuber can survive that early rush and extend this into the later rounds. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
Yair Rodriguez -150 vs Brian Ortega +125
- Anthony: The five round co-main event should be a fantastic fight at featherweight between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega. With the belt changing hands last weekend, this fight may decide the next title challenger. It is an immediate rematch for Ortega who lost against Rodriguez in 2022. Since then Rodriguez has fought twice, winning the Interim Championship and losing a title unification fight with Alexander Volkanovski. He got the better of Ortega in that first fight, defending takedowns and landing the better shots. The first round ended with Rodriguez reversing the one successful takedown from Ortega. While attacking the armbar he badly tore up Ortega’s shoulder and ended the fight. Rodriguez is the more diverse striker but both these guys have excellent standing skills. It is probably ideal for Ortega to stay at close range in order to nullify Yair’s reach advantage and limit the number of kicks that he eats. Ortega will need to be picky with his entries in order to establish a position he can work from. I don’t like his chances of scrambling up and down with Rodriguez as he’s not quite as dynamic. Ortega looked to be slower than Rodriguez in their first matchup, likely again the case here today. Rodriguez seems like the rightful favorite after being lined as the underdog in that first meeting. In Mexico City, I could see Rodriguez making it a point to brawl with Ortega on the feet. I hope that a finish will materialize early so Ortega does not get a chance to come alive late. If nothing else, Ortega has shown that he is capable of taking a beating and continuing to fight. Yair Rodriguez by Round Three KO
- Nick: As a black belt under Rener Gracie, Ortega has extremely advanced jiu jitsu and offensive grappling ability. We’ve seen him score a variety of submissions against the best of this 145 pound division and while he has made serious improvements in his striking over the years, there’s no denying that his BJJ remains his most effective weapon. He has been out of action since July of 2016, following a loss via shoulder injury in this exact same match-up. Yair Rodriguez is a talented striker with surprising power for his frame. He throws a wide range of strikes. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations and he does a good job leaning on them to keep his opponents at range. Rodriguez throws a lot of spinning attacks. When he lands, they can be extremely effective. However, when he misses he leaves himself open to counter shots and in this specific match-up he could be leaving openings for Ortega to score takedowns. Ortega is a decent striker and I expect him to have his moments on the feet here. That being said, he has a very clear path to victory if he can take this fight to the mat. Yair has a mediocre 59 percent takedown defense in the UFC, which to me won’t be enough to keep Ortega off him. Rodriguez is certainly dangerous here, especially early. However, I expect Ortega to eventually secure the takedowns he needs to find that submission. Brian Ortega by Round Three Submission
Brandon Moreno -300 vs Brandon Royval +240
- Anthony: The main event should be a good one at flyweight with Brandon Royval set to rematch Brandon Moreno. These two initially met in 2020 in what was then a title eliminator. While Moreno fought well in the opening minutes of that bout, he won after Royval dislocated his shoulder. Moreno has fought in six championship fights since then. Royval got his first chance at gold just months ago, losing to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 296. Royval largely saw his spastic offense negated by the superior top pressure of Pantoja, getting controlled for nearly sixteen total minutes on the mat. Moreno may follow a similar game plan here as had been the case in his first meeting with Royval. Moreno was successful on both takedown attempts there and one slam was what led to the fight ending injury. Moreno is also much faster with his boxing and starting to utilize more diverse offensive attacks. His kicks have become more fluid and powerful, a weapon that should be available to him here against a Royval who will constantly move forward. Royval is unlikely to win by decision and will struggle to finish the extremely durable Moreno. Even though the odds have gotten wide on this one I think Moreno is a safe bet to win. Brandon Moreno by Decision
- Nick: This is an excellent match-up between two of the best flyweights in the world. Both of these fighters are coming off losses to the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja. Moreno is one of the better offensive wrestlers at flyweight and he has an excellent gas tank to support his style. He’s somewhat awkward on the feet, but he is technically sound, striking both offensively and defensively. He lands meaningful shots and does a great job stringing together lengthy combinations. Moreno does an excellent job pushing forward and forcing his opponents to fight off their back foot. He can be over aggressive at times and present openings to be countered, which could prove troublesome to him in this match-up with Royval. Royval is one of the more aggressive fighters there is on the roster. He starts fights like he’s shot out of a cannon. He is well-rounded with a solid chin but his crafty BJJ and dangerous offensive grappling ability is certainly his greatest strength. He has notable wins over Kai Kara-France, Tim Elliot, and most recently Matheus Nicolau. He thrives in chaos and he’s done a good job forcing opponents to fight at his ridiculous pace. The price on Moreno is a bit inflated, but I do expect he gets it done in this spot. Royval has shown major holes in his defensive grappling ability and Moreno does an excellent job timing takedowns in striking exchanges. Royval will be live for an upset if he can make things chaotic early, but other than that I expect he’ll be outclassed here. Brandon Moreno by Decision
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
Photo: UFC.com