UFC Vegas 84: Ankalaev vs Walker II – 1.13.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 84: Ankalaev vs Walker 2. After an action packed 2023, a new year of UFC action begins tonight at The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 0-0-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
- Nick: 0-0-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-12-2024 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Joshua Van -275 vs Felipe Bunes +220
- Anthony: The card begins with a fight between flyweights Felipe Bunes and Joshua Van. It is the UFC debut here for Bunes who represents Brazil and the Pitbull Brothers gym. He has recently performed well fighting for LFA but I am not convinced we are seeing a career resurgence for the 34 year old. Van has the much brighter future ahead with two impressive UFC wins already to his credit. Van fights with great spatial awareness and sharp eyes. He has excellent kickboxing fundamentals with a very high workrate. Not many opponents can keep pace with Van’s offensive output and I see a similar story playing out in the cage here tonight. Bunes is a long and volatile striker who often presents more danger grappling compared to striking. His defense is lacking and I do not expect him to last a full three rounds with Van on the feet. Bunes does not have the best takedown entries but certainly I could see him presenting problems for Van if successful scrambling into position. The safe bet in this fight seems to be Van as he looks to make it eight in a row. Bunes does not seem like a tough opponent when compared to Kevin Borjas or Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Joshua Van by Decision
- Nick: Joshua Van is 9-1 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. He’s coming off back-to-back wins via decision under the UFC banner. For a 22-year old he is already very well-rounded and dangerous no matter where his fights go. He’s primarily a boxer and he’s crisp offensively. He fights at a torrid pace and puts out a lot of volume in exchanges. He’s still developing his skills, but it seems he’ll likely be a staple in the flyweight division for years to come. Felipe Burns will be making his UFC debut here, coming off back-to-back wins for LFA. He is 34-years-old and 13-6 professionally. He is relatively well-rounded, with eight wins coming via submission and three via KO. He’s dangerous offensively, but somewhat wreckless in his attacks. He’s going to be the better BJJ player in this match-up, but it may be difficult for him to work this fight to the mat. He’s faced a quality level of competition, but Van represents a considerable step up for him here. The line does feel a bit wide as Bunes is experienced for a debutant, but Van is the rightful favorite. Joshua Van by Decision
Tom Nolan -350 vs Nikolas Motta +275
- Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Nikolas Motta and Tom Nolan. After a win last fall on Dana White’’s Contender Series, Nolan will make his first promotional appearance today. The 23 year old is a very good kickboxer with exceptional timing and reach. Motta is six-inches shorter than Nolan and will certainly struggle to close the distance against him. Nolan could get caught by the vicious left hand of Motta but I otherwise think he gets outclassed when on the feet. Nolan is not necessarily a power puncher but his precision and volume make him a nightmare to go against shot for shot. I am still rather skeptical of Nolan’s skillset but he is still very young with time to grow. Motta does not seem like a huge challenge for Nolan although this will be the toughest fight of his young career. He will settle in and place a lot of shots on Motta as this fight gets into rounds two and three. Tom Nolan by Round Three KO
- Nick: Tom Nolan will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over a tough out in Bogdan Grad. He is 6-0 professionally, with each of his last four wins coming via KO. He’s 23-years old, fighting out of Queensland, Australia. He’s an aggressive striker with solid BJJ, but he certainly seems to favor fighting on the feet. Nikolas Motta is a fairly technical striker who uses all of his limbs well. He doesn’t carry much one-shot power, but he does a good job extending his combinations as a means to hurt his opponents on the feet. He’s dangerous offensively, but his striking defense has hardly been a strength against upper-level competition. He is 1-2-1 in the UFC, with both losses coming via KO. For a 30-year-old fighter, his durability is a major concern. Additionally, it seems his recent results have him fighting with a more timid style than he probably should. Nolan is going to be the bigger fighter here, and he should have a durability advantage as well. The line feels wide, but I expect Nolan can find a KO before Motta can slow him down. Tom Nolan by Round Two KO
Jean Silva -900 vs Westin Wilson +600
- Anthony: Next up is a matchup at featherweight between Westin Wilson and Jean Silva. I am shocked to see the debuting Silva lined at -900 despite taking this fight on short notice. This is a scary man with a record of 11-2 in professional competition. Striking is where we see Silva’s bread buttered and if he can get into the pocket early with Wilson I expect to see him quickly seize control. Wilson has a solid striking base as well but not much in terms of head movement and defensive awareness. He’s very hittable and Wilson has been finished in six pro fights before. The game plan to score an upset involves making this a chess match and keeping Silva outside of kicking range. Silva will close the distance early in this fight and make quick work of Wilson. It is not worth risking money on Wilson when I know his chin will get touched before this goes three full rounds. Jean Silva by Round One KO
- Nick: Jean Silva will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid win via decision on the Contender Series over Kevin Vallejos. He is 11-2 professionally, 27-years old, fighting out of an excellent camp via Fighting Nerds in Brazil. Silva is relatively well-rounded with eight wins coming via KO and two coming via submission. Silva has a flashy style, but it’s relatively intelligent. He does a good job throwing feints to bait his opponents into power shots, and his durability and cardio. Westin Wilson is 16-8 professionally, coming off a loss in his UFC debut to Joanderson Brito. Wilson is a BJJ specialist who fights out of a karate stance in striking exchanges. He’s a dangerous grappler, but most of his wins have come against an extremely low level of opponent. The line is completely ridiculous here, but Silva is the rightful favorite. I expect he can keep this fight standing until he scores a knockout. Jean Silva by Round One KO
Farid Basharat -275 vs Taylor Lapilus +220
- Anthony: Taylor Lapilus will be facing Farid Basharat here in a bantamweight matchup. Lapilus won against Caolan Loughran in a September return to fighting in the UFC. He did look good with quick and effective striking. Lapilus also showed much better shot selection than what we saw in his first promotional stint. Unfortunately the young, undefeated Basharat seems like a very tough matchup for him. Basharat earned an impressive win in his last fight, submitting Kleydson Rodrigues inside of the first round. He is not always chasing submissions but Basharat does display elite grappling and very intelligent transitions. The top pressure that Basharat is able to generate for a 135 pounder is extremely impressive. Lapilus will have his hands full keeping Basharat out of his face while striking and off of him in what will be a large number of clinch positions. He will also throw kicks at the lead leg of Lapilus. It is a good price to bet on Basharat extending his record to an impressive 12-0. Farid Basharat by Decision
- Nick: Farid Basharat is the younger brother of Jahvid Basharat, who is a rising contender in his own right. Similarly to his brother, Baharat is highly skilled no matter where the fight goes. He is 11-0 professionally, coming off an impressive win via submission over Kleydson Rodrigues. Basharat strikes well at range. He does a good job working behind his jab. He throws lengthy combinations and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a very high pace. His grappling is solid, especially defensively. He’s dangerous in scrambles and very difficult to take down. Lapilus is a dynamic striker who throws as many kicks as he does punches. He’s effective at range and in the clinch. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. His defensive grappling isn’t great, but continues to improve. He has excellent cardio and he’s shown he can carry his power into later rounds. He’s coming off a solid win via decision over Caolán Loughran, but that fight played out closer than expected. Basharat is going to be the better grappler in this match-up and the striking should be mostly a wash. On the feet this will be a competitive fight, but I expect Basharat to secure the takedowns he needs to pull this one out. Farid Basharat by Decision
Marcus McGhee -240 vs Gaston Bolanos +190
- Anthony: This should be a fun bantamweight fight between Marcus McGhee and Gaston Bolanos. While these are two fighters well versed when it comes to grappling and jiu jitsu, I am expecting a striking battle here. McGhee has very precise kickboxing and very good defensive awareness. He trains with a great team at The MMA Lab, sparring often and honing his timing. McGhee is different from Bolanos in terms of the arsenal of attack employed. Bolanos is largely a boxer who often mixes in high power kicks and spinning elbows. McGhee’s range of weapons is much wider with a diverse kicking game and much more fluid combination striking. He is going to get Bolanos biting on a lot of feints in this bout and likely starts to break him down as this matchup goes late. Both guys are tremendously durable but I do not see McGhee quitting at any point of this one. Marcus McGhee by Round Three KO
- Nick: Marcus McGhee is 8-1 professionally, 2-0 in the UFC, and coming off a solid KO win over JP Buys. He’s 33-years old and getting a late start to his UFC run, but he is extremely well-rounded as a technically sound striker with solid wrestling and general grappling ability. He fights out of a solid camp via MMA Lab and in spite of his age, he seems to be entering his athletic prime. Gaston Bolanos is 7-3 professionally, coming off a win in his UFC debut over Aaron Phillips. His MMA resume is somewhat uninspiring, but he’s also had a solid professional run in both Muay Thai and kickboxing. If this fight takes place at striking range, Bolanos will be a very live underdog. He’s gifted offensively and does a good job countering both at range and in the clinch. That being said, I do see McGhee as the rightful favorite here. He is the more well-rounded fighter, the more potent finisher, and he carries a lot of momentum in this match-up. Bolanos will be dangerous in exchanges, but McGhee should dominate him on the mat. Marcus McGhee by Round Two Submission
Matthew Semelsberger -120 vs Preston Parsons +100
- Anthony: The featured prelim comes at welterweight between Preston Parsons and Matthew Semelsberger. It is an interesting matchup with great styles clashing and both men looking to bounce back from a loss. Parsons is dependent on grappling in his fights, so far only winning against the guys that he can take down and beat on. Trevin Giles beat Parsons his last time out, defending eight of eleven takedown attempts. Semelsberger has been susceptible to takedowns in the past and could again find himself grappled to death here. On the feet he is much better than Parsons and far more likely to find a knockout. Physical strength is what sways me in this bout and I do think Semelsberger is stronger. The man seemed a bit meek at weigh-ins, but Semelsberger is a bigger guy who should keep Parsons off of him. It is a bout he is taking on short notice. He will get a lot of good strikes in here standing, landing from both stances on the body and head of Parsons. Matthew Semelsberger by Decision
- Nick: Matthew Semelsberger is a powerful puncher who wins most of his fights via early KO. He’s 5-4 so far in the UFC, coming off an ugly KO loss to Uros Medic. At his best, Semelsberger does a good job using an aggressive style to force his opponents to retreat. While there are certainly holes in his game, his impressive power gives him a shot against almost anyone in this division. Preston Parsons is a dangerous submission grappler with decent takedown entries, which he primarily finds up against the cage. He is going to look to take this fight to the mat, but he’s competent enough on the feet to strike with Semelsberger if he needs to. Parsons is 1-2 in the UFC, coming off a narrow decision loss to Trevin Giles. This is one of the more difficult fights on the card given the general inconsistencies of Semelsberger. He’ll justify his price as a favorite if he can find an early KO, but if he can’t there’s a decent chance we see Parsons take him down and work him for a submission. As talented as he is, Semelsberger’s general inconsistencies make him a very difficult fighter to back as a favorite. That being said, I do expect he’ll secure a win here via early KO. Matthew Semelsberger by Round One KO
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Waldo Cortes-Acosta -750 vs Andrei Arlovski +525
- Anthony: The main card opens with a heavyweight matchup between Andrei Arlovski and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. It is 2024 and the former champion Arlovski remains active as ever despite debuting for the UFC back in 2000. He has adapted to a style that still proves effective to this day, concerned with keeping a good defensive shell and attacking with short bursts of offense. I must say that while certainly on the decline, Arloski still fights competitively and with very good timing on his punches. Cortes-Acosta could find himself losing a decision to Arlovski if he does not put forth a valiant effort to outstrike the veteran. All signs though point to a clean win here for Cortes-Acosta as he continues to build a nice resume. Salsa Boy lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute while staying light on his feet and elusive from the orthodox stance. I expect Cortes-Acosta to look like a -750 favorite if this does end up going to decision. Cortes-Acosta has also never been finished while Arlovski’s last stoppage victory came more than eight years ago at UFC 187. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision
- Nick: Cortes-Acosta is 10-1 professionally, coming off a solid KO win over Łukasz Brzeski. Cortes-Acosta is 3-1 in the UFC, and continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s athletic for a heavyweight and he has shown decent cardio and durability, but he often sacrifices defense as a means to close distance on his opponents. Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his excellent fight IQ. He does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. Arlovski is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2018. The line feels too wide here given the low-level nature of this match-up, but I do see the more athletic Cortes-Acosta as the rightful favorite. Arlovski’s durability and speed have been declining dramatically. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Round Three KO
Brunno Ferreira -130 vs Phil Hawes +110
- Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Brunno Ferreira and Phil Hawes. I consider Hawes a skilled, technical and all-around solid fighter. Unfortunately I do believe his career has come to an abrupt end due to a chin that has been cracked to bits. The past three losses for Hawes have come by brutal knockout with Hawes left far from conscious before even hitting the ground. Ferreira is a terrible stylistic matchup as all of his professional fights have ended in six minutes or fewer. He has power in both hands, often blitzing into the pocket to supplement what is rather short arm reach. A few good hooks landing clean on Hawes should put an end to this bout early. Ferreira is my favorite bet on the card and a huge play for me at -130. Another bad knockout would see Hawes cut or possibly retired. I worry about him putting forth great effort, especially as the start of this camp was spent holding pads for Dillon Danis. Brunno Ferreira by Round One KO
- Nick: Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a brutal KO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev. Prior to that loss Ferreira had been on a ten-fight winning streak, with all of those wins coming via finish. There is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. Phil Hawes is mostly known for his KO power, but he’s also an effective wrestler. Hawes does a good job mixing his kicks into his combinations. He’s very athletic with sneaky explosiveness, but his gas tank and durability are both major question marks. Hawes is coming off back-to-back KO losses to Ikram Aliskerov and Roman Dolidze. This match-up with Ferreira represents a step down in competition for him here, but knowing Ferreira has tremendous power means this is a very difficult match-up stylistically. If Hawes can extend this fight he should be able to pull off the upset.. However, I’m just not confident his chin or durability will allow him to do so. Brunno Ferreira by Round One KO
Ricky Simon -190 vs Mario Bautista +160
- Anthony: This should be a very good fight at bantamweight between Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista. I am excited to see Simon back in action despite losing in the main event of his last appearance. Simon still has the skills to thrive in this division and likely clear most competition with his great wrestling alone. Song Yadong defended seven of nine takedowns in that bout with Simon. Bautista will not be nearly as effective stopping the takedowns when they come here tonight. His takedown defense is just 56 percent. Bautista is a skilled jiu jitsu practitioner who may go hunting for submissions here, I simply do not see Simon getting caught in anything thrown up from the back. Generally Simon has good control in top position and the ability to keep opponent’s flat. Bautista will have the edge over Simon when striking but the ability to keep things standing will be key. Simon is a bit more experienced and I expect him to mix things up well, keeping Bautista’s offense largely neutralized. Ricky Simon by Decision
- Nick: Mario Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. Ricky Simon is coming off an ugly loss to Song Yadong, but Yadong is one of the more dangerous contenders in the division. Simon averages just shy of a ridiculous six takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage here and I expect he’s not far off from Bautista in terms of striking ability. If Simon makes the mistake of standing and swinging with Bautista he could find himself on the wrong end of an upset here. That being said, I feel he’s the more well-rounded fighter here and the fighter with more paths to victory. I expect Simon to lean on his grappling as he pulls this one out on the scorecards. Ricky Simon by Decision
Jim Miller -150 vs Gabriel Benitez +125
- Anthony: The co-main event will now feature Jim Miller in a fight against Gabriel Benitez. Both veterans of the sport, Miller is applauded here yet again setting the record for total UFC fights with 43. He currently holds the record of total wins with 25 in search of 26. The last win for Miller was vintage, starching Jesse Butler with a left hook seconds into the bout. He has done very well clearing some young prospects in these past few years of work. Benitez should be a more compelling matchup with Miller less willing to fight recklessly. Of course Miller still will pursue submissions and throw hard, Benitez just has better defenses for most of what he may see. I think the kicks of Benitez will give him space and allow him to score points early. Miller tends to fade when fights hit their latter half and Benitez has the tools to remind Miller what deeper waters feel like. Benitez has the better boxing and more left in the tank compared to the 40 year old. I’d love to see Miller earn himself another win but I cannot in good conscience bet him here as the favourite. Gabriel Benitez by Decision
- Nick: Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and nineteen of his thirty-six professional wins have come via submission. He has won four of his last five fights, including his most recent win via 23 second KO of Jesse Butler. Benitez is a pressure striker who generally does a good job controlling the center of the octagon. He throws heavy leg and body kicks, he works well behind his jab and he stays true to the Shooto Box style of rapidly moving in and out of his opponents range. Given Miller’s age, I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell in this spot. However, he’s the more technically sound striker defensively and he’s going to be a nightmare for Benitez here if this fight does hit the mat. Benitez’s power could be a difference maker, but Miller has been durable lately and he should have a major cardio advantage. I expect he can hang on the feet here until he scores a timely takedown and secures another submission win. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
Magomed Ankalaev -450 vs Johnny Walker +340
- Anthony: The main event is a rematch at light heavyweight between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker. These two shared the cage for a few minutes last fall before the bout got called due to an illegal knee landed on Walker. They meet today with five rounds scheduled but I do not expect to see these two go the distance. Ankalaev seems to again be on the right side when comparing the skills of these fighters. He did well early against Walker, proving hard to hit and scoring a successful takedown. Walker is explosive and a fun staple of the light heavyweight top ten. He has the power to stop just about anyone he faces but a tactician like Ankalaev will give him fits. Ankalaev’s powerful kickboxing makes him much less one-dimensional than many of his teammates. He lands at a steady rate but more impressive from Ankalaev is the mere 2.2 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Normally we see Ankalaev content when fighting at range but I like that he can always rely on his grappling when put in tricky situations. He should look to land more frequent takedowns here after already feeling Walker on the mat. This rematch should yield a much cleaner performance from the Russian, someone I expect to fight for a world title before the year ends. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
- Nick: This main event is a rematch of a fight that took place back in October of 2023. Ankalaev looked good early in that match-up, but he struck Walker with an illegal knee and the fight was ruled a No Contest. Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has propelled him to the top of the division. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. Johnny Walker is extremely gifted in terms of athletic ability, but his fight IQ leaves a lot to be desired. He carries serious power in all of his limbs, but he’s very hittable in exchanges. He’s become a more measured fighter since he began training under John Kavanagh at SBG Ireland, but many feel that Walker’s hyper-aggressiveness is what made him dangerous when he was winning consistently. He does have some momentum coming into this match-up, coming off three straight wins in the division. I expect Ankaleav to mostly fight Walker at range here, and to mix in his grappling if at any point he needs to. It wouldn’t shock me to see Walker pull off the upset by knockout, but Ankalev simply has more paths to victory. After a slow start, I expect he’ll work Walker to the mat where he should be able to finish him with ground-and-pound. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
Photo: UFC.com