UFC 297 Strickland vs. Du Plessis analysis

UFC 297 Strickland vs. Du Plessis Analysis

UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis – 1.20.2024 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

   Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis. The first pay-per-view of the year comes north of the border as the UFC treks back to Canada. Sean Strickland will look to make his first title defense against a dangerous challenger in Dricus Du Plessis. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

   As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 7-4-0 (Last Year 307-199-6, 61%)
  • Nick: 8-3-0 (Last Year 324-182-6, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 1-19-2024 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 6:30pm EST

Malcolm Gordon -210 vs Jimmy Flick +170

  • Anthony: Our card today opens with a fight at flyweight between Malcolm Gordon and Jimmy Flick. Yesterday Gordon did come in over the limit at weigh-ins for a second straight time. Gordon was heavy facing Jake Hadley last year, a bout that saw Gordon finished in just one minute. I do not think he is a reliable -200 against anyone and this is not a matchup that favors him stylistically. Gordon usually does his best work in the octagon when he is able to implement his own offensive grappling. I expect that to be a bit of a challenge facing a credentialed BJJ artist like Flick. While Flick did lose both of his previous octagon appearances they did come by KO against rather heavy handed fighters. Gordon will present more opportunities for Flick to engage on the mat when compared to recent opponents. I love the value of Flick as the underdog here, expecting him to outwork Gordon on the ground. Jimmy Flick by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: This is a low level matchup at flyweight, which makes this a difficult fight to predict.Gordon is an aggressive striker with decent defensive wrestling ability. That being said, he is old for the division and it seems he doesn’t really carry any standout skills. Additionally, Gordon doesn’t wear damage well and we’ve seen him rocked in many of his fights regardless of the respective outcomes. Jimmy Flick has extremely advanced BJJ ability, and is a former LFA flyweight champion. His striking isn’t terrible, but he has a questionable chin and durability, as six of his seven professional losses have come via KO. There are questions surrounding Flick’s level to compete as he’s already retired once and he hasn’t looked good since his return. I wouldn’t recommend betting on this fight, but I do see Gordon as the rightful favorite. He’s a competent enough grappler to mostly keep this fight standing where he should have a slight advantage. His durability is questionable at best, but Flick doesn’t really carry any power on the feet. Malcolm Gordon by Decision

Jasmine Jasudavicius -400 vs Priscila Cachoeira +300

  • Anthony: Next is a fight at women’s bantamweight between Jasmine Jasudavicius and Priscila Cachoeira. This had originally been a bout slated to take place at 125 pounds. Jasudavicius graciously accepted an offer to move this to bantamweight less than two days ago after Cachoeira admitted to botching yet another weight cut. Jasudavicius had a productive 2023 inside the octagon, growing a lot as a martial artist and earning some rather solid wins. While Jasudavicius largely relies upon grappling in her fights, the striking has gotten significantly better since her move to the UFC. It is likely that she wrestles in this particular spot given the danger Cachoeira possesses while boxing. The Brazilian defends 65 percent of opponent takedowns and we have seen her beaten before on the ground. Generally Cachoeira will be dangerous early and strike less effectively as fights go late. I think Jasudavicius is the more skilled fighter in this spot and a rightful favorite over Cachoeira. Most of this fight should be spent with Jasudavicius in top position. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
  • Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 9-3 professionally and 3-2 in the UFC, coming off a hard fought decision loss to a tough prospect in Tracy Cortez. Cachoeira is very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute and her aggressive style also presents opportunities for her opponents to find takedowns. The clearest path for Jasudavicius here is to lean on her wrestling against a flawed grappler in Cachoeira. Cachoeira will be dangerous in exchanges, but I have trouble expecting she can keep this fight standing for long. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision

Yohan Lainesse -150 vs Sam Patterson +125

  • Anthony: This should be a fun fight at welterweight between Yohan Lainesse and Sam Patterson. Lainesse is a dynamic striker looking to put on a show in front of his home crowd. He is without a doubt a finisher, looking to put hands on his opponent and get the night over quickly. Fighting in Toronto means a lot to Lainesse and UFC veteran Patrick Cote who operates in his corner. Patterson is a tough matchup for Lainesse given his length and grappling skills. Lainesse has improved in terms of his takedown defense but Patterson would likely slice through him on the mat if this fight does in fact end up there. Lainesse will look to land a big shot early on Patterson who has proven to be a bit chinny. Patterson has two knockout losses on his record with both coming in the very first round. He took a brutal left hook from Yanal Ashmouz in his last octagon appearance. That is a shot Patterson will need to watch out for here facing another orthodox fighter with a very quick hook. Yohan Lainesse by Round One KO
  • Nick: Laniesse is massive for a welterweight. He has a very large frame. His striking is far from refined in terms of technical ability, but he carries devastating power in his punches with six of his eight professional wins coming by knockout. If this fight takes place solely on the feet, Lainesse is very much live to win via KO. He’s a very powerful striker and he’s shown he can land from a variety of angles. Sam Patterson is coming off a brutal KO in his UFC debut, where he fell to Yanal Ashmouz. He has a long frame for the division, but his striking defense is generally terrible and his chin is there to be hit in exchanges. He’s decent everywhere offensively with a solid choke series, and there is no denying he’ll be looking to grapple in this match-up. This is another low level and volatile match-up. If Patterson can score a takedown he’s likely to find a submission. That being said, I expect Lainesse can mostly keep this fight standing. A low confidence play, but I’ll back the favorite here in front of his home crowd. Yohan Lainesse by Round One KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Gillian Robertson -300 vs Polyana Viana +250

  • Anthony: The preliminary card begins with this bout at women’s strawweight between Polyana Viana and Gillian Robertson. Viana has not fought the best competition thus far in the UFC and I’m not really a fan of her game in its totality. While Viana has some quick hands and crafty jiu jitsu, there are glaring holes that still need correcting at the age of 31. Robertson is conversely doing well here in her late career, winning two of her last three bouts. The competition that Robertson has recently faced give me confidence picking her here in a match against Viana. Robertson is the far superior grappler in this bout with wrestling that pairs well with her offensive jiu jitsu. Viana will spend too long on her back here searching for hail mary submissions against Robertson. I expect the jiu jitsu black belt to keep Viana controlled and win this fight rather convincingly on the scorecards. Gillian Robertson by Decision
  • Nick: Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with nine of her twelve professional wins coming via submission. Her striking continues to improve, and having recently moved down to strawweight she’s no longer outsized by the majority of her opponents. Viana has outstanding BJJ, but she’s had trouble closing distance and getting her opponents to the mat. She strikes aggressively and she puts out a lot of volume, but she’s far from technical on the feet. On the mat, Robertson should have a considerable technical advantage here. Viana has dangerous BJJ offensively, but she only seems to score submissions against low level grapplers. The line feels wide here, but I see Robertson as the more well-rounded fighter. She should stay a step ahead no matter where this one goes and she should have a cardio advantage as well. Gillian Robertson by Round Three Submission

Serhiy Sidey -185 vs Ramon Taveras +150

  • Anthony: This is a bantamweight matchup between Serhiy Sidey and Ramon Taveras. These two men met last summer on Dana White’s Contender Series when Sidey won via knockout in the very first round. Taveras did protest an early stoppage in that spot but nonetheless we did see him dropped and finished. Taveras weighed in heavy for that bout as well as today’s rematch, nearly a full four pounds over. Taveras may benefit psychologically from this added weight as he looks to brawl a less dense opponent. He is a boxer that stalks forward and throws each punch with fight ending intentions. Sidey is much more sound technically than Taveras and likely to take over as this fight gets late. He throws a quick left hand and much more varied attacks than Taveras who is happy to exclusively box. The odds on this fight seem appropriate with Sidey favored to win once again. I do not expect an early knockout from Sidey here but a more dominant showing over the course of at least two rounds. Serhiy Sidey by Round Three KO
  • Nick: This fight represents a matchup between two debutants, and a rematch of a recent Contender Series fight. Serhiy Sidey technically won via KO the first time around, but Taveras wasn’t at all knocked out so both fighters were ultimately awarded a contract. Sidey is 6-1 professionally, and he enters this fight on a six fight winning streak. He’ll be fighting in front of his home crowd here as a Canadian resident. He’s 27-years old and generally well-rounded, but we have yet to see him tested extensively against top level competition. Ramon Taveras is 9-2 professionally, with five of his nine wins coming via KO. He’s well-rounded, but prefers to strike. He’s extremely aggressive and dangerous offensively, but his hyper aggressive style leaves him susceptible to be countered in exchanges. This should be a very competitive match-up between two somewhat untested newcomers. Tavares is going to be dangerous early here, but Sidey has shown solid durability and it’s tough not to back him here as he was technically awarded the win the last time these two squared off. Serhiy Sidey by Round One KO

Charles Jourdain -210 vs Sean Woodson +170

  • Anthony: This should be a very good fight at featherweight between Sean Woodson and Charles Jourdain. I am expecting fireworks here as two high volume strikers meet in the middle of the cage. Woodson’s exceptional boxing and length make him a problem for everyone in this division. Jourdain is ceding nine-inches of reach to Woodson and it will be difficult for him to get into the pocket to land shots of substance. Jourdain has a wider arsenal of attacks than Woodson but not much in terms of fight ending power. He should take a measured approach in this bout, chopping the legs of Woodson early and slowly working into a range where his hands can connect. Jourdain is also a very serviceable grappler with two wins by guillotine since joining the UFC. Woodson does struggle to defend takedowns and he will need to be careful of grappling for any length with a guy as crafty as Jourdain. I do see this fight much closer than the odds imply but Jourdain seems like the rightful favorite. Fighting in Canada should give Jourdain a boost and while I rate these two men equally as strikers, Jourdain is much more dangerous on the mat. Charles Jourdain by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off a lackluster but dominant decision win over Kron Gracie in which he kept the fight standing and dominated the striking at range. Jourdain has excellent cardio and he generally does a good job building momentum and giving the best showing of himself in later rounds. Sean Woodson is an extremely talented kickboxer as a former Golden Gloves champion. He continues to show improvements in other facets of his game, but he’s still mostly one dimensional. He has a 79-inch reach which is ridiculous for this division, and most of the time he uses it to pick his opponents apart at a distance. Woodson is going to be the better technical striker in this match-up, but Jourdain should have a power advantage. He does an excellent job landing shots out of breaks and if he can close distance here he’s going to be very live to win via KO. This should be a competitive and a violent match-up, but I expect Jourdain to stay a step ahead. I think his grappling advantage here will be greater than Woodson’s will be on the feet. Charles Jourdain by Round Two Submission

Brad Katona -220 vs Garrett Armfield +180

  • Anthony: The featured prelim comes at bantamweight between Brad Katona and Garrett Armfied. Katona is coming off a Fight of the Night win in Boston this past August. That win over Gibson saw Katona display his full skillset and earn the title of The Ultimate Fighter. He is smart, quick for this division and very deliberate in his striking. Katona also has great wrestling and a strong base that allows him to control a lot of opponents on the mat. Armfield tends to grapple first in a lot of his fights but I do not see him effectively doing so here against a wrestler that is as good as Brad. It is also worth noting that while Armfield is not afraid to throw and throw with power, Katona’s striking defense beats him by miles. Katona also has the edge over Armfield in terms of durability having never been finished in a fight. He is going to have a clean performance here, touching up Armfield and taking over as this bout goes late. Of all the bets I have on today’s event Katona is one of my favorites. Brad Katona by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Katona is a well-rounded fighter who is known for his cerebral fighting style and his extremely high Fight IQ. He does an excellent job capitalizing on the weaknesses of his opponents. He studies his opponents extensively, but in most of his fights we see him lean on a grappling heavy game plan to grind out decisions. He’s coming off an impressive comeback win via decision over Cody Gibson in an absolute war. He sometimes fights down to the level of his opponent. Garrett Armfield is coming off a solid win via KO over Toshiomi Kazama. He is 13-2 professionally, but two fights into his UFC tenure we still haven’t seen him tested against a high level of opponent. Garrett Armfield did give a decent showing of himself in his UFC debut, in a fight that took place up a weight class on very short notice against a dangerous opponent in David Onama. While he was competitive early in that spot, he was eventually controlled and then submitted by a fighter in Onama who is primarily a striker. Armfield is dangerous, but Katona does seem a level above him at this point in their respective careers. Armfield’s greatest strengths aren’t anything Katona hasn’t seen before. As long as he’s defensively sound, I expect the favorite to cruise to a decision here. Brad Katona by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Movsar Evloev -185 vs Arnold Allen +150

  • Anthony: Opening the main card is a featherweight scrap between Movsar Evloev and Arnold Allen. This is a great stylistic clash between a striker in Allen and a grappler in Evloev. The undefeated Evloev continues to rise up the 145 pound rankings despite not yet winning over highly regarded names. The Russian cannot be denied as one of the divisions best and most complete fighters. While Evloev often looks to implement his grappling, his striking has become extremely refined working with his coaches at American Top Team. Evloev will struggle to match Allen’s volume and power here but I do not mind him boxing a bit with Allen on the feet. Takedowns will come early and often from Evloev as he looks to wrap up Allen and win by any means necessary. He will limit Allen’s offensive weapons by controlling him on the ground as long as he possibly can. It is not a confident pick for me but I do think Evloev is successful in implementing that gameplan. Both men will have their moments but I think a close decision goes the way of Evloev. Movsar Evloev by Decision
  • Nick: Movsar Evloev is an extremely talented featherweight prospect. He comes into this match-up at an undefeated 17-0 with notable wins over Dan Ige, Hakeem Dawodu, and Diego Lopes. He’s a dangerous technical striker but most of his success comes on the mat, as he’s one of the best wrestlers in the division. Arnold Allen is a talented striker who does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Most of his fights are won on the feet, but he’s shown a well-rounded overall game. He is 19-2 professionally, coming off a hard fought but convincing decision loss to one of the best featherweights in the world in Max Holloway. Allen is the better striker in this match-up, but I expect Evloev can dictate the pace and secure the takedowns he needs to win a decision. Evloev secures nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes and Allen’s grappling hasn’t been tested in years. A low confidence play, but I’m siding with the favorite. Movsar Evloev by Decision

Chris Curtis -185 vs Marc-Andre Barriault +150

  • Anthony: Next is a matchup at middleweight between Marc-Andre Barriault and Chris Curtis. I had been expecting to see Curtis at this event as he is the primary training partner for Sean Strickland. While The Action Man did not win a fight in 2023 he still holds rank in the division’s top fifteen. Curtis is consistent, always looking to fight a sound match defensively and setting up his counter shots. Against a high pressure fighter like Barriault we should see Curtis really let his hands fly. Footwork will be a key in this fight as Curtis moves laterally to avoid the forward march from Barriault. The Canadian tends to absorb a lot of damage while working in the clinch and unloading combinations. Curtis has the power to rock Barriault and style that will allow him to weather this early storm. While Barriault is known for his high workrate, I have no concerns with Curtis matching his cardio. He is the more complete martial artist and I like his chances of winning here as a moderate favorite. Chris Curtis by Round Three KO
  • Nick: This should be a fun matchup as both fighters are primarily strikers, and both guys are more than happy to stand in the pocket and swing. Curtis is primarily a counter-striker with a tight guard defensively and power in both hands. He has an excellent chin, but the major key for him to win here will be if he can force Barriault to fight his type of fight. Curtis is at his best when he’s in close boxing range. Barriault fights at a torrid pace. He has decent power and does a good job putting pressure on his opponents. His durability allows him to easily close distance and while his striking isn’t all that technically sound, he’s powerful enough to win exchanges on the feet. His greatest attribute is certainly his cardio, as many of his victories come via taking damage easy and waiting for his opponents to drain their gas tanks then taking over late. This will be a fun one for however long it lasts, but I expect Curtis to eventually find Barriaults chin on a counter. Curtis is sometimes tentative, but his opponent should be pressing forward in this one. Chris Curtis by Round Two KO

Mike Malott -400 vs Neil Magny +300

  • Anthony: The featured bout comes at welterweight with Neil Magny set to face Mike Malott. This matchup serves to showcase Malott as the next great Canadian talent. After returning to the sport in 2020, Malott has gone 5-0 with three wins already in the UFC. Magny certainly figures to be his toughest test to date with 21 UFC wins to his credit. The man is fighting for the 40th time as a professional here and still doing it just as well as he did a decade ago. Magny has a great frame for this division and a reach that will give Malott some problems. Oftentimes Magny wins by mixing his striking with well timed clinches against the octagon side. Perhaps this a fight Magny can win accruing damage and control time, but I do worry about Malott eventually getting him onto the mat. Malott’s jiu jitsu is very good and an ability to hit quick submissions makes him the rightful favorite. However, with Magny fighting smart and keeping this fight standing early there is no way Malott will look like a -400. The value here is on Magny and I am expecting him to pull off this upset. Malott may be quicker and more explosive than Magny but that still does not justify closing odds that are so wide. Neil Magny by Decision
  • Nick: Malott has been a coach at American Top Team for years, but he only recently began re-engaging in professional competition. He’s a dangerous BJJ player, but his takedown entries and overall wrestling base is far from refined. He is a creative striker offensively, but he often leaves himself open to be countered. Malott is 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins coming via finish. He continues to show massive improvements fight to fight, but there’s no denying he’s taking a major step up in competition here against a tough vet in Neil Magny. Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has solid grappling ability, but he can struggle to get back to his feet once he’s grounded. He’s coming off a terrible performance where he lost via decision to Ian Machado Garry, but he took that fight on short notice. It feels like the UFC is looking to boost Malott’s stock here as a featured fighter in front of his home crowd. Magny is very far past his prime, but it is true he’s still going to be the toughest opponent Malott has seen to date. The line is absolutely ridiculous here and I would leave Malott out of parlays, but I do think he secures the win here in front of his home crowd. Magny is the value side, but I have trouble seeing him secure the win in this one at this point in his career. Mike Malott by Round One Submission

Mayra Bueno Silva -170 vs Raquel Pennington +145

  • Anthony: The co-main event decides the women’s bantamweight championship as Mayra Bueno Silva will face Raquel Pennington. This is not a very high level title fight but that is to be expected with Amanda Nunes vacating her belt. One of these two women will realize their dream tonight and likely defend against Juliana Pena before this year’s end. Both are undefeated in their previous five fights and enter this matchup with a ton of confidence. Bueno Silva has not fought the same caliber competition as Pennington but she has been winning impressively nonetheless. Her grappling is far better than Pennington’s and although Bueno Silva lacks effective takedown entries, she will get Pennington down a few times here. Her striking is unpredictable, carrying more power than Pennington but throwing with less consistent output. I will be interested to see who wins positions along the fence that figure to play to Pennington’s strength. Her experience in the cage with numerous former champions makes her a very live underdog. I considered taking Pennington here but ultimately I did decide to back Bueno Silva. The Brazilian’s more complete skill set should serve her well in a five round fight. This is one of my least confident picks on the card. And New. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
  • Nick: This matchup is for the UFC Vacant Bantamweight Championship, following the retirement of Amanda Nunes. Mayra Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt. She doesn’t really have much wrestling ability, so it’s rare we see her shoot for takedowns, but whenever she’s grounded she’s very capable of finishing her opponent. Raquel Pennington is a talented veteran who has only lost to championship level fighters. She does a good job keeping consistent pressure on her opponents. She strikes best in close range where she likes to grind her opponents up against the cage, nullifying their offensive abilities. She’s going to be the better technical striker in this match-up, and I also expect she’ll have a cardio advantage here. Silva is the more potent finisher, but Pennington is more well-rounded and she’s had more experience against top level competition. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a stab on the underdog here. Pennington is the better minute-winner and she is very difficult to finish. And New. Raquel Pennington by Decision

Sean Strickland -110 vs Dricus Du Plessis -110

  • Anthony: The main event will decide the middleweight championship as Sean Strickland makes his first title defense against Dricus Du Plessis. The challenger enters this bout on an eight-fight winning streak with a lot of solid wins to his credit. Nothing was more impressive than Du Plessis last year in his victory over the former champ Robert Whittaker. His aggressive style of kickboxing and consistently crowding opponents makes him a nightmare for most to deal with. Du Plessis is also strong, having scary power for a middleweight and the strength to explode in and out of clinch positions. Strickland figures to be a tough stylistic test given his superb defensive and Philly boxing shell. Strickland constantly moves forward too and looks to break down opponents with his volume and excellent timing. I figure he’s likely to win a fight that goes to decision while any finish here likely comes at the hands of DDP. Strickland will need to respect Du Plessis early here or I otherwise see him meeting a similar fate to Whittaker. This is a fighter with 19 of his 20 professional wins coming by way of finish. He is a legitimate title contender with just a single loss the past decade, going 1-1 in his two fights with Roberto Soldic. At near pick em odds this fight is volatile but I do slightly lean the way of Du Plessis. And New. Dricus Du Plessis by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Strickland has only lost to an elite level of competition. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering a wide-range of strikers. He has excellent footwork and head movement. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio, especially in five round fights. Strickland is coming off a career defining win where he captured the UFC Middleweight Championship, dethroning Israel Adesanya via decision as a massive underdog. He’ll be defending his title for the first time here against a former KSW Middleweight Champion in Dricus Du Plessis. Du Plessis throws a ton of volume on the feet. He has a lot of power in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with ten professional wins coming via submission. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. His fight IQ is questionable at best and while his cardio does seem decent, he often slows down and looks labored at random times throughout his fights. Du Plessis is coming off a career best win, a KO of Robert Whittaker. As awkward as he is, there is no denying his power or athleticism and his general ability to find timely finishes. I expect Strickland to work well behind his jab here, strike out of both stances as he keeps Du Plessis mostly on his back foot. As long as he doesn’t get caught early, he should stay a step ahead of Du Plessis no matter where this one goes. This one could go either way, but I expect the champion to retain his title here. Du Plessis is more athletic and powerful, but as long as Strickland can extend this fight I expect him to pull away. And Still. Sean Strickland by Round Five KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com